According to the 50th Statistical Report on the Development of Internet in China issued by China Internet Network Information Center (CNNIC), as of June 2022, the number of Internet users in China was10.510000000, and the average weekly surfing time was 29.5 hours, and the proportion of Internet users using mobile phones was 99.6%.
Recently, some studies have pointed out that the continuous expansion of Internet application may lead to the decline of fertility level, which provides a new way of thinking and perspective for understanding the low fertility problem in China.
In May this year, Peking University's core journal Population Studies published two research articles on the relationship between the Internet and fertility wishes, entitled "Will Internet use affect residents' fertility wishes? ","Why does surfing the Internet affect individual fertility wishes? The authors are Qiu, Feng Yiqiang, Shi, China Institute of Internet Economy, School of Information and School of Economics of the Central University of Finance and Economics. The following writers are Li,, and Institute of Population and Development of Nankai University and School of Finance of Nanjing Agricultural University.
Through empirical analysis, these two studies found that surfing the Internet will reduce the fertility desire of residents. For example, "Will Internet use affect residents' fertility wishes? The analysis of the article shows that the individual's fertility will decrease by 1% every time the online time increases.
So, how does surfing the Internet subtly affect residents' fertility wishes?
Increase fertility anxiety; Change the concept of fertility; Stimulate consumption and squeeze the budget for childbirth and childcare; Social networks and entertainment have partially replaced the effectiveness of having children ... these influencing mechanisms are revealed one by one.
Compared with people who don't surf the Internet, people who surf the Internet have a lower fertility desire by about 10.5%.
Will the use of the Internet affect the fertility wishes of residents? Based on the data of CFPS in China and the statistical data of corresponding cities, this paper empirically analyzes the influence of Internet use on residents' fertility desire.
The micro-individual data used in this paper are the 20 18 China family follow-up survey data published by China Social Science Research Center in Peking University (20 18 China Family Panel Research, CFPS20 18). According to the rationality of women's reproductive age, the study excluded female samples younger than 20 years old and older than 45 years old. Because men's reproductive age can continue to be older, the study kept all male samples. After matching the adult questionnaire data with family and children questionnaires, the sample size is 10342.
In this study, two indicators, "fertility willingness" and "actual fertility behavior", are used to describe the explanatory variables. The core explanatory variable of this study is "individual Internet use", and a series of individual characteristics and family characteristics are included as control variables. Poisson regression model is used for estimation.
The research shows that after controlling other factors and endogenous problems that affect fertility desire, the analysis results show that the fertility desire of residents who use the Internet is reduced by about 10.5% compared with those who do not use the Internet.
At the same time, considering the differences between individuals, this study will discuss the interaction between Internet use and a series of virtual variables (education, income, economic level, etc.). ) into regression to study heterogeneity. The analysis results show that the decline of fertility willingness of netizens living in economically developed cities, with low education and low income is more obvious.
In this regard, the researchers analyzed that the reason for the above differences may be that netizens in economically developed cities are more likely to accept the impact of emerging concepts, and people with low education levels are more likely to be influenced by non-mainstream culture on the Internet and change their concept of fertility because of their own cognitive level.
In addition, the study also used the quasi-natural experiment of universal two-child policy-exogenous shock released in June 20 15 to test the influence of Internet use on fertility willingness.
In this study, the data of CFPS 20 14 and 20 18 in China were matched into panel data, and 2014 was regarded as "before the implementation of the policy" and 20 18 as "after the implementation of the policy". Among them, 20 14 individuals who used the internet were the experimental group, and those who did not use the internet were the control group. Double difference method (DID) was used to estimate the dependent variable fertility willingness.
The results show that the universal two-child policy has significantly improved residents' fertility wishes, but individuals who use the Internet are less affected by the universal two-child policy than those who do not use the Internet, that is, the use of the Internet has weakened the promotion of the universal two-child policy on fertility wishes.
The study further explored the relationship between Internet use and actual fertility behavior, and constructed panel data by matching the samples of China Family Follow-up Survey Data (CFPS) in 20 16 and 20 18. Taking "personal Internet use" in 20 16 as the core explanatory variable, the variable "fertility behavior" was regressed.
The results show that, given other variables, the probability of having a child is 4.3% lower for individuals who use the Internet than for those who do not. In the group who use the Internet, the probability of having a baby decreases with each increase of online time per week 1.7%.
"Fear of life" information affects fertility
The common information of "fertility anxiety" on the Internet has attracted researchers' attention.
Will the use of the Internet affect the fertility wishes of residents? This paper uses "search index" to express the popularity of relevant information on the Internet, and obtains the Baidu search index of four key words "Dink", "Abortion", "Contraception" and "Induced Abortion" at the city level in the corresponding year through crawler technology.
Considering the different scale of Internet users in different cities, the research divided the obtained search index by the number of Internet users in the city to modify the search index, and regressed the four search indexes with Internet usage, and then regressed the fertility desire with each search index.
The regression results show that Internet use has a positive impact on all four search indicators, indicating that individuals' Internet use has promoted their attention to negative topics such as DINK, abortion, contraception and induced abortion. Each search index has a significant negative effect on fertility desire, indicating that netizens will be affected by negative information on the network and reduce their fertility desire.
"Why does surfing the Internet affect individual fertility wishes? This paper compares the Internet with all kinds of traditional media horizontally to see whether the Internet has a special influence on fertility wishes.
The data in this paper comes from the database of China Social Comprehensive Survey in 20 17. The survey began in 2003, and the sample covered 3/kloc-0 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) in China. It is a recognized authority with a large sample size and many contents. According to the research needs, 7226 samples were finally retained.
Four traditional media, newspapers, magazines, TV and customized SMS, are selected to compare with the Internet. Regression results show that the use of four traditional media, newspapers, magazines, TV and customized information of mobile phones, has no significant influence on individual fertility wishes, and only surfing the Internet has a significant negative influence on fertility wishes. Even if all kinds of media are observed together, only the Internet has a significant influence.
The reason is that the Internet is essentially different from the traditional media in information function, that is, the Internet is open, relatively weak, and publishes more information anonymously, often with strong personal feelings, mixed views, avant-garde and fashionable. Views and information on the internet often spread rapidly and widely, which has an unconscious impact on netizens. These characteristics make Internet communication amplify the influence of negative information, such as strengthening the awareness of the cost and burden of childbirth, and then have a negative impact on individual fertility wishes.
The author of this paper suggests strengthening the reasonable supervision of Internet information, including reducing the influence of the information of fertility anxiety on individual fertility wishes, providing more scientific and authoritative reproductive knowledge and related information, and guiding citizens to establish a positive and correct concept of fertility; Vigorously carry forward the traditional virtues of the Chinese nation, build a new marriage and childbearing culture, respect the social value of fertility, improve and implement various fertility support policies, create a fertility-friendly social environment, and fundamentally improve people's fertility will.
Consumer temptation squeezes fertility.
These two studies also established the relationship between "online consumption" and "fertility".
"Why does surfing the Internet affect individual fertility wishes? The author puts forward the hypothesis of "consumption substitution mechanism" to explore the influence of internet access on individual fertility willingness.
For the "consumption substitution mechanism", this paper analyzes it from both qualitative and quantitative aspects. In the qualitative aspect, the study asked the respondents about the questionnaire CGSS20 17 "Do you agree that online shopping can be done anytime and anywhere, and shopping is crazier?" In terms of quantity, the consumption situation is reflected by the "proportion of cultural leisure and entertainment expenditure (including tourism) in personal income" in CGSS20 17 questionnaire.
The analysis results show that, measured by the above two indicators, surfing the Internet stimulates personal consumption desire and increases consumption. The author analyzes that the satisfaction brought by consumption directly replaces the utility of children on the one hand; On the other hand, it increases the economic budget, squeezes the resources that can be used for fertility, and then reduces the individual's willingness to bear children. The "consumption substitution mechanism" has been verified.
The study also further compares the influence of different network behaviors on individual fertility willingness.
Because the data of CGSS20 17 in this paper lacks the index of surfing the Internet, this part of the study uses the data of 20 18 China Family Tracking Survey (20 18 China Family Panel Study, CFPS20 18) for empirical test. In CFPS20 18 data, there are five purposes of surfing the Internet: study, work, social interaction, entertainment and business activities (using online banking, online shopping, etc. ).
The analysis results show that there are significant differences in the influence of different purposes of surfing the Internet on individual fertility willingness. Internet access for study, work and social activities has no significant influence on individual fertility wishes, while Internet access for entertainment and business activities has a negative influence on individual fertility wishes at least at the level of 5%.
In this regard, the author analyzes that there are many specific contents of online entertainment, and surfing the Internet is one of the main forms. When people are surfing the Internet, they receive all kinds of information, and their ideas and behaviors are unconsciously affected, including the change of reproductive concept. Online shopping and payment behavior indicate consumption activities. While the Internet is convenient for shopping, it also stimulates consumption desire, increases consumption expenditure and squeezes the birth budget, thus reducing the individual's birth desire.
Regarding the "consumption substitution mechanism", "Will the use of the Internet affect residents' fertility wishes? The article gives a similar conclusion and puts forward a "utility substitution mechanism" more specifically.
The analysis results show that the longer the time spent online in spare time, the lower the fertility will be. Every time online time increases 1%, individual fertility will decrease1.69%; At the same time, social networks and entertainment have a significant negative impact on fertility willingness.
In this regard, the author puts forward that the Internet partially replaces the utility satisfaction brought by having children by providing low-cost online social and entertainment activities, thus affecting residents' fertility will, which is called "utility substitution mechanism".
Based on the research results, the author wrote, we believe that the government should strengthen the guidance to residents so that they will not pin too much spiritual and emotional needs on the Internet, indulge in entertainment and social interaction in the virtual world, and spend more spare time with their families.
The traditional concept of fertility has been weakened.
How does the Internet affect the "traditional concept of fertility"? Both papers have studied and analyzed this.
Will the use of the Internet affect the fertility wishes of residents? The author of the article points out that if netizens often come into contact with some "avant-garde information", it may weaken their traditional concept of fertility, thus reducing their fertility will.
In order to verify this mechanism, this paper uses two questions in CFPS20 18, "How important do you think it is to carry on the family line" and "How many boys do you want", to construct two explanatory variables, "carry on the family line" and "raise children for old age" to reflect the traditional concept of fertility, and uses "Internet use" to regress them respectively to test whether Internet use affects the traditional concept of fertility.
The results show that netizens' concepts of "carrying on the family line" and "raising children for the elderly" are even weaker, which reduces their fertility will.
"Why does surfing the Internet affect individual fertility wishes? On the other hand, the traditional concept of "carrying on the family line" is measured by the respondents' recognition of the view that "at least one son can carry on the family line" in CGSS20 17 questionnaire, while the modern concept of "attaching importance to personal value" is measured by the recognition of "Do you agree that family happiness should take precedence over personal interests" in CGSS20 17 questionnaire.
The analysis results show that, similar to the previous article, surfing the Internet has obviously weakened the traditional concept of "carrying on the family line". Internet access has also greatly reduced the degree of personal recognition that "family happiness should take precedence over personal interests".
The researchers wrote that the higher the frequency of surfing the internet, the less individuals agree with the idea of having more children in order to reproduce. Internet has impacted the traditional fertility culture and reduced the individual's fertility desire. Surfing the Internet makes individuals pay more attention to their own development and needs, spend more time and resources on satisfying their own utility rather than the utility of their families, and consider childbearing more based on their own happiness and inner feelings, thus reducing their willingness to have children. It can be seen that promoting the change of fertility concept is one of the mechanisms by which Internet access affects individual fertility will.
In recent years, China has vigorously implemented the "Broadband China" strategy and accelerated the implementation of policies such as speeding up and reducing fees, which has effectively promoted the development of information technology and the popularization of the Internet. According to the 50th Statistical Report on the Development of Internet in China issued by China Internet Network Information Center (CNNIC), as of June 2022, the number of Internet users in China was10.510000000, and the average weekly surfing time was 29.5 hours, and the proportion of Internet users using mobile phones was 99.6%.
"Why does surfing the Internet affect individual fertility wishes? The author points out that the Internet has changed the way people get information, improved the efficiency of information search, and is quietly changing people's values and lifestyles, including having an important impact on people's fertility will and behavior, which needs to be highly valued.