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How should China choose the development path of endowment insurance according to its national conditions?
Both developed and developing countries are facing or about to face the same problem, that is, the challenge of population aging. Under the impact of the "silver wave", the crisis of public pension payment based on pay-as-you-go system is deepening day by day. If it is not solved, after the arrival of the peak of population aging, the potential crisis is very likely to lead to real risks. In view of this, since 1990s, many countries have taken measures to reform this system. It is of great significance to understand the historical changes and development trends of these countries' pension insurance systems and learn from their successful experiences for perfecting China's pension insurance system, innovating the pension model and formulating policies.

In 1990s, China began to establish the old-age insurance system. In terms of system design, we learn from the practices of some foreign countries, and also have specific reform paths and policy choices because of special national conditions. The Third Plenary Session of the 14th CPC Central Committee proposed that China should gradually establish a basic old-age insurance system combining social pooling with individual accounts. After nearly 20 years of exploration, social security has made great achievements, but there are still some outstanding problems, such as the increasing aging of the population, the increasing pressure on pension funds, and the increasingly prominent potential risks of the pension insurance system, which directly affect the smooth progress of various reforms. This topic aims to summarize the experience and lessons of China's old-age insurance system reform, base on China's national conditions and learn from international experience to promote the reform and development of China's old-age insurance industry.

Based on the theoretical achievements and practical experience of social insurance at home and abroad, this paper adopts the research methods of combining theory with practice, demonstration with norms, from theory to system, from history to reality, from abroad to China, investigates the problems existing in the reform of China's endowment insurance system, explores the endowment insurance model and system suitable for China's national conditions, and puts forward policy suggestions for further improving China's endowment insurance system. The full text consists of introduction, endowment insurance system, operation mechanism of endowment insurance model, problems existing in China's endowment insurance system and policy suggestions to improve the current system. There are nine chapters, about 6.5438+0.3 million words.

The first part is the introduction. This paper introduces the purpose, research scope, research status at home and abroad, research methods, structure arrangement and main conclusions of the paper.

The second part of the operation mechanism consists of four chapters: an overview of the global pension insurance system, the operation mechanism of the pension insurance model, the path selection of the model transformation, and the analysis of the transformation cost and financing. The focus is on the economic description of the old-age pension model, the comparison of the operating mechanism, the problems and disputes caused by the choice of the model, the historical changes of the old-age insurance system, the path selection of the transitional model and the comparative analysis of its financing costs.

The third part includes five chapters: China endowment insurance system, China endowment insurance model, problems and policy choice, national reserve fund, individual account fund and enterprise annuity. This part focuses on the analysis of the reform process and achievements of China's old-age insurance system, the evaluation of the basic old-age insurance model of "unified accounting", the problems existing in the current old-age insurance system, and some policy suggestions to improve China's old-age insurance system. Through the research of this paper, we strive to make breakthroughs and innovations in four aspects: the endowment insurance system with characteristics in China, the investment and operation of national reserve funds, the institutional arrangement and mode selection of enterprise annuities and individual account funds.

The main contributions of this paper to the study of endowment insurance model and system are as follows:

1, the combination of pay-as-you-go system and fund accumulation system, encouraging voluntary occupational annuity plans and personal pension savings, and establishing a multi-level pension insurance system are the direction of pension system reform in countries all over the world. This model realizes diversified management (public management and private management), multi-channel fund-raising (labor and capital) and diversified investment (equity and bonds, international and domestic), which is conducive to resolving the risks existing in pension management, fund-raising and investment operation. This paper analyzes the operating mechanism of the basic old-age insurance model and the problems it faces, and points out that any single old-age insurance model has great risks and many insurmountable obstacles, and the multi-pillar and multi-level old-age insurance system is the most secure institutional arrangement.

2. The transition from pay-as-you-go system to partial accumulation system or multi-pillar model is the general trend. This paper deeply analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of different transition modes in typical countries, points out that the system transition has a high degree of path dependence, and the transition cost is an important factor restricting the reform of a country's pension system, and makes a comparative analysis of various measures to solve the transition cost. If a country's public pension scale is relatively small, the transition cost of the system is not prominent. If NDC mode is adopted, the basic system is still pay-as-you-go system, and there is no transition cost problem. On the contrary, if we adopt the Latin American model, we will encounter a realistic and severe transformation cost problem or how to design a perfect transformation plan without exception. Countries with heavy implicit pension debts are facing difficulties in transforming from pay-as-you-go system to multi-pillar or accumulation system. The reform experience of some countries shows that the mode transformation of pension system is highly path-dependent. Once a country implements the pay-as-you-go system, the system is mature, and it is very difficult or even impossible to completely transform. The reform faces a large number of hidden pension debts, transition costs and various political obstacles developed around the old system. From the practice of various countries, both implicit debt and transition cost can be moderately reduced by raising the contribution rate, delaying the retirement age, adjusting the pension replacement rate, and strictly receiving conditions. Nevertheless, the transition cost is a big public debt after all, and effective measures must be taken to raise funds to ensure the smooth implementation of the system transition. The problems faced by these countries provide valuable experience for China's reform. The article points out that the international experience that China can learn from is that it is best to choose the correct reform path before the coverage, hidden debt and transformation cost rise to be difficult to solve, and enrich the social security fund through various channels, including transferring some state-owned assets according to law. Only in this way can the old-age insurance system in China be continuously improved.

3. There are many problems in China's social security system, some of which are caused by deep-seated reasons in the process of social and economic development and need to be solved through deepening reform; Some are not mature at the beginning, which makes some projects, such as institutions and rural endowment insurance, lag behind. Now we should organize forces to strengthen research; Some of them are caused by our work or management, and we must work hard to improve them. The article points out that the next step of China's old-age insurance system reform should focus on solving two outstanding problems, one is the funding gap, and the other is the management system. At present and in the future, the key to improve the old-age insurance is to expand the coverage of old-age insurance, accelerate the reform of old-age insurance in public institutions, gradually realize individual account funds, and transfer state-owned assets to enrich social security funds. At the same time, establish an effective fund management and investment operation system.

4. Personal account "doing small things" is conducive to clarifying the ownership of personal accounts. After years of accumulation, investment and operation, personal account funds have become an important part of pension, ensuring a certain level of replacement rate and providing a certain degree of protection for personal retirement. The article points out that the perfection of personal account system faces two basic problems: first, it is "money" to make a personal account; Secondly, the investment and operation of personal account funds is a "system" problem. These two issues are related to whether the system design of the basic old-age insurance can achieve its original intention: not only to play the economic function of social overall planning, but also to realize the personal responsibility for its old-age care.

5. The problem of pension payment pressure has a long history. Before the trial of the national reserve fund, governments all over the world were trying to find ways to alleviate it, including raising the contribution rate, extending the legal retirement age, strictly collecting measures, lowering the pension level and so on. Practice has proved that these methods have played a certain role in maintaining the operation of pay-as-you-go system, but there is no hope to fundamentally solve the future crisis. In this context, the establishment of reserve funds has become a new choice for some countries. As far as its nature is concerned, the national reserve fund is very similar to the national social security fund in China, and its reform experience is quite valuable for reference. The article points out that the following problems need to be solved to improve the reserve fund: first, the legal environment, the modification of investment methods, deregulation, and the gradual transition from strict limited supervision to prudent person rules; The second is the source of funds. With the growth of fiscal revenue, the budget allocation should be increased year by year, and state-owned assets should be allocated to supplement the national social security fund; Third, according to the actual situation of social security funds and the needs of career development, we should gradually solve the problems of institutional positioning and personnel compensation.

Further reading: How to buy insurance, which is good, and teach you how to avoid these "pits" of insurance.