The title and pictures of the article may have made you realize the meaning of the topic. Have you really evaluated your ability objectively? In many group tests, almost 80% people think that their ability ranks in the top 20%. Of course, this is logically impossible.
People always tend to overestimate themselves, and few people can overcome this psychology, because this is the gene buried in our DNA by evolution. As you can imagine, in the primitive times, our ancestors were faced with a sinister environment and fierce competition for survival. It was really difficult to support the spirit of lack of optimism and self-confidence, so the psychological factor of "overconfidence" was preserved by natural selection.
But in today's social environment, overconfidence sometimes brings us risks. There is a very famous paper in the field of finance. In 1999, Professor Terrance Odean of the University of California found a set of data, which contains the real transaction records of more than 60,000 stock accounts in the United States from 1990 to 1995. He made a careful analysis of this data set and found some particularly interesting phenomena.
Professor Odean will group investors who open accounts according to the frequency of transactions. It is found that those investors in day trading are almost 30% lower than the average market income. This trend is particularly significant. The more they trade, the more they lose. Who is easy to do day trading? Generally speaking, he is a person who has special confidence in himself, because he thinks he can predict accurately. Interestingly, the data shows that men generally like trading more than women. On average, their trading frequency is 0.5 times that of 65438+ women. Men always tend to overestimate themselves.
If we continue to divide male and female investors into married and unmarried investors, we will find that single men suffer the most, which tells us that single men are actually the most overconfident group.
Professor Odean also analyzed another set of accounts, which are only for married people and require the permission of their spouses to conduct transactions. It turns out that men who need their wives' consent to trade do much better than single men. Women who need their husbands' permission to trade do worse than single women. Therefore, overconfident men are not only bad traders, but also very bad influencing factors. Obviously, the root of the problem lies in men's overall overconfidence and optimism.
So don't invest in single men? Of course not. The losses mentioned above are all caused by day trading, so the first thing to do is to control your hands.
I am also an amateur in stock investment. The above example is only used to explain the interesting discovery of "overconfidence" in behavioral economics. After reading this example, I decided to get Ma Bao's permission, and I can trade stocks in the future.
So how to learn from the psychological factor of "overconfidence" in learning? I think we should adhere to moderate self-confidence. Without self-confidence, we may lose some good opportunities. The key problem is "overconfidence". It is found that a typical manifestation of "overconfidence" is a tendency to accept information that supports one's own judgment and ignore information that is inconsistent with one's own judgment.
This is a breakthrough point for us to overcome "overconfidence", that is, we should deliberately ask ourselves to pay attention to all kinds of information, especially in the face of important and complicated decisions, we must collect relevant information from many sources and solicit opinions from others, especially those that are different from our intuitive judgment. Decisions made on this basis will be more objective.