With the end of this interest rate hike cycle, global inflation expectations have gradually weakened, and the international commodity bull market represented by crude oil has temporarily come to an end. In the context of continuous interest rate hikes, the global economic growth rate has gradually slowed down. The world commodity boom began to cool down and funds began to withdraw from the commodity market. At the beginning of August, crude oil failed to break through $80 through a series of short-term themes such as the Iranian nuclear issue and the hurricane hitting the Gulf, but embarked on a long bear market and entered a sharp correction in the medium term. By 10, the price of crude oil had fallen below $60. The continuous decline in oil prices has caused panic in the oil-producing countries of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. On the evening of June 65438+1October 65438+September, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries reached an agreement to reduce production and protect prices, and decided to reduce the daily crude oil production by10.2 million barrels.
This production reduction has added some favorable factors to the market, but failed to effectively promote the rebound of oil prices. The market has launched a tug-of-war around the reduction of production in oil exporting countries and the continuous reduction of demand in oil consuming countries. After more than a month of interval consolidation, crude oil finally rebounded, driven by the further production reduction of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in June 5438+February and the demand for heating oil.
Due to the differences in domestic and international market backgrounds, there have been some obvious deviations between crude oil and fuel oil this year:
(a) In February, the international oil price continued to fall due to the announcement by the IEA of a substantial increase in inventories and a decrease in demand expectations. However, domestic fuel oil deviated from the expected price of crude oil because of more funds, and basically closed at the positive line in the trading after the Spring Festival. With the international crude oil and Singapore fuel oil both rising and falling, the downward trend of resistance has emerged.
(b) In late June, crude oil was supported at the bottom of the previous period because it was difficult for Iran and western countries to reach an agreement on the nuclear issue. Shanghai fuel oil, on the other hand, fell further due to the weak Singapore fuel oil market and sufficient domestic arrival, which broke the previous bottom support level.
(c) In mid-July, the conflict between Israel and Lebanon escalated, the Iranian nuclear issue and the North Korean missile launch resumed, and the series of bombings in Mumbai, India, led to the sudden accumulation of bullish factors in the crude oil market, and July 14 reached a record high. However, fuel oil refineries in various parts of China are almost unprofitable because of the substantial increase in costs. The sharp drop in demand dragged down the performance of fuel oil, and Shanghai Oil failed to break through the previous high point.
(d) After a round of large-scale adjustment, the trend of fuel oil and crude oil began to diverge, the trend of fuel oil showed fatigue, the intraday volatility narrowed, and the trading volume and positions shrank significantly.
The second part is the analysis of crude oil market in 2007.
First, the growth rate of the world economy has slowed down.
In 2006, the growth rate of GDP in the United States dropped significantly, and investors began to suspect that there was an inflection point in the American economy. This caused the market to worry about the decrease in demand for crude oil, and also set the tone for the correction of oil prices in 2006.
At the same time, the slowdown in the US economy means that interest rate hikes will come to an end. The last time the US raised interest rates was at the end of June. At this point, the pace of 17 consecutive interest rate hikes since June 2004 has finally stopped, and all interest rates have been raised by 25 basis points.
This round of GDP growth decline in the United States is mainly caused by the cooling of real estate, which mainly affects the American economy through investment, consumption and employment. The impact on the economy will not be too great, and the adjustment period will not be too long. The fall in oil prices and house prices in 2006 also eased the inflationary pressure in the United States. The United States has strong macro-control ability. The purpose of the United States is also very clear, that is, overseas expansion. In addition, the sound economic development in other parts of the world has also promoted the trade and export of the United States and promoted the development of the American economy. Therefore, the development of the American economy shows signs of slowing down, but it is impossible to decline.
Although global economic growth is expected to slow down next year, it will only slow down slightly.
Second, the relationship between world oil supply and demand has improved.
In recent years, concerns about crude oil supply have been pushing oil prices to record highs. While the oil price keeps rising, the high oil price also leads to the weakening of the global oil consumption growth trend and the expansion of production. The resulting change in the relationship between supply and demand of crude oil is likely to end the bull market of crude oil for several years.
In June 2006, 5438+ 10, the International Energy Agency lowered the growth rate of world oil demand by 0. 1% in 2006 and 2007, and the growth rate of oil demand in 2006 was lowered from 1.2% to 1%.
Among them, the demand from China is still strong. In 2006, China's oil demand growth accounted for more than 30% of the global growth. In addition, China officially entered the era of oil storage this year, and will devour more oil supply in the initial stage of establishing reserves. In August this year, Zhenhai Petroleum Strategic Reserve Base was officially completed, and it was announced to be opened in June+10 in 5438, and crude oil was injected. At present, the other three buildings are under construction in an orderly manner. According to the plan, they will be put into production one after another before 2008, when China will have a reserve scale of 654.38 billion barrels of crude oil.
At the same time, with the gradual production of oil investment projects, the crude oil production capacity of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has increased significantly. Among them, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is the world's major oil-producing region, and its oil supply accounts for 40.5% of the world's total oil supply.
In recent years, the oil supply of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has increased steadily, from 30.8 million barrels per day in 2003 to 34.7 million barrels per day at present, with an increase rate of 12.7%. The surplus production capacity has also been continuously improved since June 2004, from 580,000 barrels per day at that time to 3.38 million barrels per day at present.
In recent years, the oil production of non-OPEC countries has increased faster. According to the forecast of the International Energy Agency, the crude oil output of non-OPEC countries increased by 165438+ million barrels per day in 2006, and it is expected to reach10.7 million barrels per day next year, and the total oil supply will rise to 52.7 million barrels per day.
The increase is mainly due to the substantial increase in Russian oil supply. As a pillar industry in Russia, the petroleum industry has developed rapidly in recent years. In the past 10 years, Russian oil supply has increased by nearly 60%, reaching 9.7 million barrels per day. It is estimated that Russia's oil supply will exceed100000 barrels per day in 2007.
All these show that the world oil supply and demand situation is gradually improving.
3.EIA and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, who is dominating the ups and downs of the oil market?
Us energy information administration (EIA) can often influence the crude oil market by publishing oil inventory and demand data. Recently, the crude oil inventory announced by EIA has declined from the historical high, but it is still much higher than the inventory level a year ago. The high crude oil inventory and the reduction of global oil demand by EIA in 2006 and 2007 drove the international crude oil to fluctuate downward.
When soldiers come, water will drown them. In the process of the original price falling, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) often intervenes in advance by changing the production reduction policy to prevent the price from falling, thus protecting the interests of oil-producing countries. And this policy change is not always effective. In recent years, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has often reached a consensus that the price of crude oil is between 55 and 60 dollars/barrel, and it has raised oil prices through formal or informal production cuts to protect the interests of oil-producing countries. However, judging from the situation of OPEC's production reduction since 1993, it takes a process for the market to turn around, because OPEC usually makes the decision to reduce production when the crude oil market is bearish. Therefore, the decision of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to reduce production often cannot immediately promote the effective recovery of crude oil prices. Therefore, oil prices usually rise after a few months of production reduction, that is, it takes a long time for the production reduction to be reflected in the crude oil market.
In 2007, the policy game between EIA, which represents the interests of importing countries, and OPEC, which represents the interests of exporting countries, will continue. As the price of crude oil is falling in the sensitive range of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will play a more prominent role in 2007.
Fourth, the influence of seasonal factors has increased.
In the case that geopolitics is gradually weakening. Seasonal themes such as gasoline consumption in summer, hurricane and heating oil consumption in winter in the United States will be more concerned by the market. Among them, gasoline consumption and heating oil consumption push crude oil prices through the correlation between upstream and downstream products, while hurricanes directly push crude oil prices by affecting oil facilities and operating rates in important oil-producing and refining bays such as the Gulf of Mexico. In fact, seasonal factors every year provide opportunities for speculation in the crude oil market.
In recent years, the global El Ni? o phenomenon has become more and more serious, and the United States has emitted nearly one-third of the world's carbon dioxide because of its developed industry, and the climate in the United States is warming. The warm winter climate in 2006 limited the rebound height of crude oil. Seasonal influencing factors are paid more and more attention by the market, and their influence on the market is often gradual and usually lasts for a long time.
5. Geopolitical factors have not been eliminated.
The trend of international oil price is influenced by many factors, especially in recent years, crude oil, as an important strategic material, not only has strong financial attributes, but also has increasingly become a bargaining chip in political wrestling.
Considering the economic interests and energy strategy, the United States must win the game with Iran to ensure the stability of oil prices. Previously, the United States has been temporarily or permanently freezing Iraq's uranium enrichment activities through diplomatic means to delay Iraq's development of nuclear weapons. 12 On February 23rd, the UN Security Council decided to impose a series of sanctions on Iran, such as an embargo, freezing assets and supervising relevant personnel to travel abroad. So far, the United States has successfully promoted the internationalization of the Iranian nuclear issue through diplomatic means and won international support for further action against Iraq. Iran's status as an oil-producing country and its strategic geographical location determine that if Iran continues to develop nuclear weapons, it will inevitably lead to further deterioration of the problem and will once again push the international oil price soaring. The mysterious and unresolved Iranian nuclear issue has surfaced again. The crude oil market is also the stage of political game. Geopolitical problems have surfaced again, which may trigger another round of hot speculation of funds.
The third part is the market analysis of fuel oil (2737,-12, -0.44%).
Although there are some deviations between domestic fuel oil and crude oil this year, they still maintain a high correlation. The fundamentals of fuel oil itself are easier to weaken than crude oil.
First, the spot market structure of fuel oil has changed.
The structural change of the fuel oil market is mainly caused by the high and rapid increase of fuel oil in the early stage, which makes it difficult for domestic end users to adapt to the rising cost market environment.
In the early stage, driven by crude oil, the fuel price is also high all the way, which leads to the cost of fuel-fired power generation being much higher than the electricity price, and the fuel-fired power plant suffers serious losses. Although the local government gives appropriate subsidies, the profit margin of oil-fired power plants is still very small, even losing money. Enterprises are overwhelmed and forced to stop or run at the lowest load, which directly leads to a sharp drop in fuel oil demand. After the fuel oil price drops from a high level, it needs more manpower, material resources and financial resources to restart the enterprise, and the demand is difficult to recover for a while.
The reduction of fuel oil demand for power generation is also affected by the easing of power supply and demand. This year, China's power supply and demand situation has eased significantly compared with last year. The tight power supply situation has been significantly improved. In China's current power supply structure, thermal power generation accounts for 75.6%, hydropower accounts for 22.6%, and new energy sources such as wind power account for a smaller proportion. Such a power supply structure can neither improve energy utilization efficiency nor protect the environment. From the macro-control point of view, these highly polluting and energy-consuming oil-fired units in South China will be gradually reduced and eliminated.
Generally speaking, traditional fuel consumption industries such as printing and dyeing industries have completely disappeared in the fuel market; The proportion of oil used in ceramic industry decreased to less than 30% of fuel consumption; The demand for oil-fired power plants has shrunk dramatically, and the proportion of power industry in the market has decreased; The oil used by boatmen has increased steadily, and fuel oil processing enterprises have become the main consumers of imported fuel oil.
Second, the development space of alternative energy is expanding.
Due to the rising price and cost of fuel oil in the early stage, the use of fuel oil is easy to bring environmental problems, so the development of alternative energy sources has gained development space.
The main fuels for replacing fuel oil in China are coal, natural gas and orimulsion. Although it is difficult to replace fuel oil on a large scale in the short term, it has a good development prospect. At present, the tight supply in the coal market has led to an increase in coal prices. In addition, replacing oil with coal is also limited by environment and technology, and the scale of replacing fuel with coal will be affected; However, with the gradual completion and commissioning of the West-to-East Gas Transmission Project, Guangdong LNG Project and Venezuela Orimulsion Oil Project, the scale of fuel oil substitution will gradually expand, especially in the field of power generation. According to the planning of relevant departments and the forecast of some departments, the demand for fuel oil in the domestic power generation field will decline in the future, but the demand for fuel oil in the transportation field, which accounts for nearly 1/4 of China's fuel oil demand, will increase due to the development of water transportation; Due to the rapid development of chemical industry, building materials, steel and other fields and the limitation of alternative fuel growth, the demand for fuel oil will remain stable in the short term. The West-to-East Gas Transmission Project has replaced the fuel of some power plants with natural gas with better cleaning performance. In addition, the commissioning of imported LNG projects will further reduce the demand for fuel oil for power generation.
Third, the fuel oil market is shrinking.
China's oil demand this year accounts for about 46% of the world's total demand, with an increase of 6. 1%. However, due to the current price mechanism and the development of alternative energy sources, the demand for fuel oil has declined.
The shrinkage of the spot market is transmitted to the Shanghai fuel oil futures market, which makes the trading volume and positions show some signs of decline. There are also reasons for the decline in trading volume and positions: in the first half of 2006, Shanghai's fuel price soared several times, and the trading was enlarged, but every time it was attacked by spot traders to preserve its value and sell it, speculators suffered serious losses when the oil price retreated, which greatly affected their confidence. The suppression of firm offer affected the enthusiasm of speculative forces. However, as the only oil futures product in China, Shanghai fuel oil is still expected to attract more capital and continue to seek development with the development of the financial market.
The fourth part is the prospect of 2007.
To sum up, the world economy is basically improving in 2007 and will maintain steady growth, but the growth has slowed down, mainly due to the weak real estate market in the United States, the further weakening of consumption and residential investment growth and the fall of the US dollar. Under the premise of the global economic slowdown and the balance of world oil supply and demand, it is extremely unlikely that oil prices will hit a historical high again, and a phased callback pattern has been formed. At the same time, influenced by the international situation, seasonal factors and other uncertain factors, the oscillation adjustment will continue in 2007. It is predicted that the price of crude oil will fluctuate between 55-68 USD/barrel in 2007.
In 2007, the operating range of Shanghai fuel oil will be more stable, and the impact of domestic spot fundamentals will be higher than that in 2006.