As long as there is a transaction, there is a relationship between supply and demand. Everyone knows that "things are scarce", and so is the silver investment market. Therefore, the supply and demand forecasting method is a very effective judgment method. We believe that predicting the future price trend of silver depends on two factors: the investment/speculative demand of silver as a commodity and the supply-demand relationship of silver itself. Among them, the demand for commodity investment is closely related to global liquidity (inflation level) and the trend of the US dollar.

Second, the dollar forecast method

Theoretical analysis shows that the rise and fall of silver price is deeply influenced by exchange rate, economic situation, securities market, inflation, international situation and the prices of major raw materials such as oil. By judging these related factors, the short-term silver price can be well predicted. For example, the trend of the dollar is closely related to the price of silver.

The dollar fell, silver rose, silver fell, and the dollar was often at a high level. Why can the dollar have such a great influence on the price of silver? There are three main reasons for this:

First of all, the dollar is the pillar of the current international monetary system. Dollar and silver are the most important reserve assets. If the dollar is strong and stable, it will weaken the position of silver as a reserve asset and a value-preserving function.

Second, US GDP accounts for more than 20% of the world GDP, and the total foreign trade volume ranks first in the world. The world economy is deeply influenced by it, and the price of silver is obviously inversely proportional to the quality of the world economy.

Third, the world silver market is generally priced in dollars, and the depreciation of the dollar will inevitably lead to an increase in silver prices. For example, when the price of silver reached a low point at the end of the 20th century, people threw out silver in succession, which was closely related to the continuous growth of American economy 100 months and the strength of the US dollar.

Third, the cost forecasting method

The value of a commodity depends on the general labor value condensed on it. In other words, the price will not deviate too much from the commodity cost, and the cost can squeeze out the price bubble and better see the essence of the commodity. Silver, like oil, is a resource commodity with limited mineral reserves. When the political situation is turbulent, people can better appreciate the value of oil and silver, and the cost premium of silver will be higher.