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The ongoing Ukrainian crisis has pushed up the prices of raw materials imported from Japan. At the same time, the yen exchange rate fell by 1 1% in two months, and once fell to 129 yen 1 US dollar on April 20th, setting the lowest level since 2002. On the same day, the exchange rate of the Japanese yen against the RMB also fell below the mark of 1 RMB against 20 yen, hitting a new low of nearly 7 years.
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In the past, the depreciation of the yen was usually regarded as a positive signal of economic growth, but now it has evolved into a "vicious depreciation of the yen" that was caught off guard. Under the dual effects of high raw material prices and the depreciation of the yen, the cost of Japanese paper and food industry soared.
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Inoue, a full-time wife living in Chiba Prefecture, Japan's capital circle, recently visited the supermarket and found that the prices of cooking oil, flour, mayonnaise and even diapers have been rising since April, and many foods are the second round of price increases after last autumn. Imported meat is also expected to be more expensive.
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I told Inoue, "For decades, income and prices have fallen into a vicious circle of stagnation. Now, the income has not changed. Although the price of food has not risen much, it is about tens of yen, but it still makes people care. "
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The anxiety of the Japanese government is rising. Suzuki Shunichi, the finance minister, said at the Senate meeting recently that the rapid depreciation of the yen would have a strong negative impact on the current economic situation. Haruhiko Kuroda, governor of the Bank of Japan, said on May 25th that the downward trend of the yen was quite sharp, but he insisted on a loose monetary policy.
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In the face of the continuous decline of the yen exchange rate, are the Japanese government and the central bank laissez-faire or helpless?
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Reasons for price increase
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On the evening of April 26th, local time, Japanese Prime Minister kishida fumio held a press conference and finalized 6.2 trillion yen (about 3179 billion yuan) of emergency measures to deal with rising prices, including granting 50,000 yen to low-income families with children and extending the period of subsidies to oil refiners.
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Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, global commodities have risen sharply, while Japan's energy and food are highly dependent on overseas imports, and the price of crude oil has risen, leading to an increase in electricity and gas bills. Inoue said that the electricity bill for their family of four in March was about 8,400 yen, which was at least 30% higher than that in March last year. "Electricity prices remain high and food prices are also rising. If it continues, it will cause a great burden on family income and expenditure. "
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Japan's Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications announced on April 22nd that the national consumer price index rose by 0.8% in March compared with the same period of last year, hitting a four-month high of/kloc-0. Among them, the increase in energy prices is the highest since 198 1. This year, many Japanese power companies declared bankruptcy because of high electricity prices, and many shopping malls turned off the power supply of electrical display samples to save electricity.
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To make matters worse, the sharp depreciation of the yen has amplified the impact of rising international commodity prices on the Japanese economy.
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In June 5438+last year 10, when kishida fumio took office, Kenping Otsuka, acting representative of the Japanese National Democratic Party, asked the Senate: "The real effective exchange rate of the yen has dropped to the level of the first half of the 1970s. What does (the Prime Minister) think? " At that time, kishida fumio avoided answering, then held a cabinet meeting to discuss the countermeasures of high crude oil prices, and the pressure of yen depreciation began to appear.
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In Japanese economic circles, 125 yen 1 dollar has always been regarded as the tolerable lower limit of depreciation. This dividing line comes from Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, so it is called "Haruhiko Kuroda Line". Since the beginning of this year, the yen exchange rate has continued to fall, the aura of "safe haven assets" has gradually faded, and the "Kuroda defense line" has also collapsed.
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In the view of the Bank of Japan and the government, adhering to the "moderate" depreciation of the yen will help strengthen Japan's foreign exports and push up Japan's inflation. However, the exchange rate has fallen so fast that they don't want to see it, but they can't help it.
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Zhang Yulai, vice president of the Institute of Japanese Studies at Nankai University, told this newspaper that the sharp depreciation of the yen was partly due to external factors. Last month, the United States withdrew from the easing policy and stepped into the interest rate hike channel, forming a spread between Japan and the United States and attracting international capital to the United States. In addition, under the background of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the United States was favored by the capital market after it made it clear that it would not intervene in the conflict, and reaffirmed its financial dominant position in the process of economic sanctions against Russia, which changed the trend of "buying yen in turbulent times" in the international capital market.
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"The American economy is very strong. I hope to restore the stability of prices. " At the press conference on March 16, Paul, chairman of the Federal Reserve, announced that he would change the policy since the epidemic, raise interest rates by 0.25%, and start the quantitative austerity policy. Economies worried about capital outflow followed suit, and interest rates in most countries in Europe and America turned positive. At this time, the Bank of Japan adhered to a loose monetary policy, increased bond purchases, and kept long-term interest rates at zero level.
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According to Yonhap News Agency, Haruhiko Kuroda said in a speech at Columbia University on April 22 that the Japanese price increase is temporary, and a strong monetary easing policy must be adhered to in order to achieve economic recovery. He didn't say a word about the devaluation of the yen, which was widely concerned by the outside world.
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The Bank of Japan and the government are in a passive position in this round of yen depreciation, and the fundamental reason lies in the Japanese economy itself.
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Dilemma of yen depreciation
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Born in Inoue at the end of Showa, he grew up in the background of the bursting of Japan's bubble economy and the Asian financial crisis. "Many people are afraid of the appreciation of the yen. Once appreciation means depression, the stock market will fall accordingly. Therefore, they are used to thinking that depreciation is irrelevant and more favorable, but now the situation is different. "
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In the past 20 years, Japan has been trying to get rid of deflation. In the spring of 20 13, Haruhiko Kuroda took office and took charge of the Bank of Japan. Together with the then Abe government, he proposed to achieve the inflation target of 2% within two years and implement the "super quantitative easing" policy. In Kuroda's view, it is difficult to change the situation of Japan's sustained economic depression without raising prices.
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By adopting large-scale monetary stimulus measures, Kuroda pushed the yen to depreciate sharply and helped Abenomics, hoping to increase corporate profits, expand employment and business scale, further stimulate consumption and increase domestic demand. However, the Japanese consumer price index shows that the ultra-loose monetary policy, the first arrow of the "Abenomics", only achieved some results in the first year, but failed to stimulate domestic demand.
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Nine years later, the inflation target of 2% has never been achieved, but Kuroda's "weak yen" status is hard to shake. Reuters quoted a source as saying that Haruhiko Kuroda will not change his monetary policy until the end of his term in April next year to safeguard his political legacy, but he has become increasingly weak, especially the continued depreciation of the yen, which has aroused many questions.
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At this time, Abe appeared as Kuroda's "platform" and defended "Abenomics". According to the Japan Broadcasting Association (NHK), Abe said on April 25 that the impact of the current yen depreciation on the economy is not worrying. "Japan's industrial export capacity is very strong. If foreign tourists resume entry, the depreciation of the yen is undoubtedly a positive environment for Japan. "
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Undeniably, after Japan's bubble economy burst, there were two favorable yen devaluations, which occurred in 2002 and 20 12 respectively. However, with the changes of the times, the transformation of Japan's economic structure has led to a negative depreciation of the yen.
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Zhang Yulai pointed out that as Japanese companies go overseas, overseas equipment investment even exceeds the scale of domestic equipment investment, and the economic structure has turned to the mode of "investing in creditor countries". This structure leads to the rapid decline of Japan's economic (domestic) competitiveness, the "total factor productivity" reflecting technological innovation, and the domestic added value of Japanese exports.
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At present, the signals released by the Japanese government and the central bank on the issue of yen depreciation are ambiguous.
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According to the Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki Shunichi said on April 26th that the rapid fluctuation of the exchange rate is not desirable and will pay close attention to the exchange rate trend. Although Kuroda admitted that "the rapid depreciation of the yen is negative", he insisted that "the depreciation of the yen is beneficial to the overall economy". Such a statement prompted the market to judge that the Japanese government would not take action to deal with the vicious circle of further selling of the yen.
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Japanese financial circles are increasingly worried. As far as the Kishida government is concerned, the Senate election is just around the corner, and the weakness of the yen has become a political hot spot that cannot be ignored.
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Japan's economy is "damaged"
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At the end of March this year, the Governor of the Bank of Japan and the Prime Minister held talks five months later. After the talks, Haruhiko Kuroda was surrounded by reporters at the Prime Minister's residence. According to NHK's video report, when asked about the depreciation of the yen, he replied, "Our (Bank of Japan's) real-time financial adjustment has no direct impact on the exchange rate." Another reporter asked if the Prime Minister wanted to devalue the currency. Kuroda said, "There are no special requirements."
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Japanese media reports pointed out that Kuroda explicitly denied that the Bank of Japan was responsible for the depreciation of the yen, but instead kicked the ball to the Kishida government.
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It is true that the Bank of Japan's withdrawal from the loose monetary policy by raising interest rates is one of the options to curb the depreciation of the yen, but it will cause a greater financial burden on the government and "cool down" the economy. In the past two years, Japan has expanded its fiscal expenditure and increased the issuance of government bonds for epidemic prevention. According to the data released by the Ministry of Finance in February, at the end of 2002 12 18 trillion yen, and the national debt per capita was about 97 1 billion yen.
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At this time, the Bank of Japan did not take the interest rate hike into account at all, and was still trying to suppress the rise of long-term interest rates. According to NHK, the Bank of Japan purchased more than 2 trillion yen of government bonds from April 2 1 day to April 26. As of the 26th, the long-term interest rate is still hovering around the upper limit that the central bank can tolerate, and has not dropped significantly.
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The Bank of Japan held a financial policy decision-making meeting on April 27-28, and policymakers were divided on whether to embrace or resist the fall of the yen. People are generally worried about whether the large-scale financial easing policy will change. Bloomberg quoted economists as saying on the 27th that the possibility of maintaining the status quo is 90%.
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"Now the depreciation of the yen is very bad, which is not good for the Japanese economy." Akira Mimura, director of the Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry, said at the press conference on April 2 1 that he hoped the government would analyze the impact of the depreciation of the yen and consider countermeasures. More than half of small and medium-sized enterprises think that currency depreciation is bad for their business. If enterprises can't transfer "imported inflation" to the selling price, it will be their own profits that will suffer.
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"Nihon Keizai Shimbun" reported that rising prices have led to increased dissatisfaction among Japanese companies and citizens. As the Senate election approaches this summer, the Kishida government has a strong sense of political crisis. On April 26th, kishida fumio said that in order to stabilize the exchange rate, the government should consider economic policies.
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In order to cope with the depreciation of the yen, the Japanese government's "foreign exchange intervention" of selling dollars and buying yen is a means, but the premise is to coordinate with the United States. Looking back at the depreciation cycle of the yen from 1995 to 1998, the Bank of Japan intervened heavily to buy the yen in the later period, but failed to recover the decline. Finally, only the United States stopped the depreciation of the yen.
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Now that the United States is fighting against high inflation through monetary tightening, it is difficult to spare no effort to help Japan. According to Japanese private TV station TBS, Suzuki Shunichi and US Treasury Secretary Yellen communicated on April 22nd on the exchange rate between Japan and the United States. Japanese government officials said that the US is actively exploring. However, according to the analysis of the report, it may be difficult for the US government to agree to buy yen to intervene, because this will depress the exchange rate of the US dollar and accelerate the rise of domestic inflation in the United States.
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Before the further depreciation of the yen, whether the Japanese government can win the understanding of the United States has also become a major focus. Professor Ito Yuan Zhong of Japanese Academic University wrote on 24th that the strength of the yen has fallen to less than half of the peak level of 1995. Not only is the exchange rate depreciated, but more importantly, deflation makes Japan's prices and wages lower than other countries. As a result, "the purchasing power of the yen has declined, so has the purchasing power of our wages, and Japan has become poor."
"，" force_purephv":"0 "，" gnid":"9a92d49a85a7 1780b "，" img_data":[{"flag":2，" img":[]}]，" original":0，" pat":"mass_leader，art_src_ 1， Fts0, Sts0 ","powerby":"cache ","pub _ time ":1651069877000," pure "Japan: At present, the world is based on the US dollar, and the fluctuation of the yen exchange rate is influenced by the US dollar. However, the current decline of the yen also has its domestic factors, such as nuclear power leakage and earthquakes. But in the long run, the yen exchange rate will still rise.
Will the yen exchange rate fall? I don't think the yen exchange rate will fall in the short term. The new Japanese Prime Minister has taken office, and some new policies will be introduced after the new government takes office. At the same time, there will be many expectations for the nationals of the new government, which will increase the fluctuation of the yen in the short term. These aspects will affect the yen in the short term. ....
Will the yen exchange rate continue to fall? -:The non-agricultural data is not good, and the yen will not fall for the time being.
Will the yen continue to fall? The yen has fallen sharply recently. Since last year, the yen has depreciated sharply, mainly because Japan raised the consumption tax rate in the first half of last year. In order to hedge the impact of the consumption tax increase, the Bank of Japan launched QQE, which led to a sharp depreciation of the yen in the second half of last year. In the future, Abe may continue to raise the consumption tax to 10% for the continuation of government reform. In that case, the depreciation of the yen may continue, but if Abe stops raising the consumption tax, this round of depreciation caused by the consumption tax will come to an end and the yen will re-enter the stage of shock consolidation. At that time, the fluctuation of the yen exchange rate will not be obvious, and the overall direction will tend to appreciate slightly. In addition, it should be noted that the yen is a safe-haven currency, and when global risk aversion is triggered, it will also push up the trend of the yen.
Will the yen exchange rate fall in the near future? No, in the real economy, the American economy has such a great influence on the Japanese economy, that is to say, the exchange rate of the Japanese yen against the US dollar is basically the same. Of course, the influence of special major economic events is not ruled out. After all, these are relative. But yesterday, the interest rate of the Federal Reserve kept unchanged, and it was bullish on the US dollar, that is, the exchange rate of the US dollar rose recently, so the exchange rate of the Japanese yen will not fall recently.
Will the yen continue to fall? -:The fluctuation of the yen exchange rate is only indirectly related to RMB, and directly related to the exchange rate of the US dollar. Now is the period of yen depreciation, just like last year. In mid-March, 201,76 yen depreciated against the US dollar (100 yen against 8.6 yuan RMB), and until early April, 201,85 yen depreciated against the US dollar (1,85 yen). ...
Will the exchange rate of yen against RMB continue to fall? Yes, now that the RMB is constantly appreciating and the Japanese government is implementing monetary easing, it is inevitable that the yen will depreciate. So it will continue to fall.