First, the Indian epidemic collapsed.
The Indian epidemic unexpectedly collapsed. On April 22nd, the Indian Ministry of Health said that in the past 24 hours, India reported 314,835 new cases in COVID-19, setting a record for new cases in a single day in the world. According to the data of Johns Hopkins University, as of April 22nd, the total number of cases in India has reached15.9 million, second only to 3190,000 in the United States.
India's data is lower than that of the United States, but it is more likely to be underestimated. Compared with the United States, which is rich in medical resources, India is at an overall disadvantage in terms of the number of hospital beds, the proportion of medical staff and medical materials, and India does not have the ability of large-scale testing in the United States. The Indian government concealed the seriousness of the epidemic, tried to muddle through, and finally paid the price of blood.
As far as the rapid growth rate of Indian cases is concerned, COVID-19 has spread, and it is too late to isolate it. Navin Dang, a microbiologist and chairman of the laboratory in New Delhi, said that their data showed that in New Delhi, the positive rate of COVID-19 was 30%, while only 1.5% of people in India were fully vaccinated with COVID-19 vaccine, and India was unable to stop a new wave of epidemic.
According to the current trend, the number of cases in India may exceed 1 100 million, which means that one in ten Indians is infected with this virus. Such a huge number of patients far exceeds the response capacity of Modi's government.
The Wall Street Journal described the tragic situation in India. Because of the surge in cases, public hospitals with insufficient funds in India are overwhelmed, while private hospitals are hard to find a bed. Many people have no choice but to wait in line for beds outside public hospitals, or run back and forth between hospitals, begging to be sent to the hospital even if they can get a doctor's visit for a minute. Many families went bankrupt, looking for oxygen and COVID-19 drugs day and night, but drugs such as raloxivir were in short supply in hospitals.
A large number of Indians cannot be admitted to hospitals. They can only watch their loved ones die and then burn the bodies in the street. Smoke billowed from the streets of India, and the remains of bodies were everywhere. An ignorant traveler from far away may think that he has returned to the Middle Ages. At that time, desperate Europeans were helpless in the face of the Black Death and could only burn the bodies of their loved ones in silent tears.
India's nightmare does not stop there. India has discovered mutant viruses from Britain, South Africa and Brazil, and India also has unique mutant strains. Experimental data show that the effectiveness of Pfizer vaccine against South African virus is greatly reduced, and the spread of mutant virus makes the epidemic situation in India worse.
Large-scale infection in India also provides a hotbed for virus breeding. The virus can constantly evolve during the infection process, producing more variants and making the vaccine ineffective. India will become the base of virus evolution and produce more dangerous variants.
In order to survive, the evolution direction of virus has always been high infection rate and low mortality rate. The infectivity of Indian mutant virus has been greatly enhanced. For four consecutive days, the number of new cases in India ranged from 200,000 to 350,000. Some experts believe that the surge in cases in India is likely to be related to this new variant of the virus.
The run of hospitals, the urgent shortage of medical supplies and the emergence of new mutant viruses have made the epidemic in India unstoppable. In the face of the crisis, Modi was at a loss. He felt great fear and had to delete a large number of critical comments from Indian netizens.
Modi is undoubtedly responsible for the outbreak of the Indian epidemic.
(India is reduced to hell)
Second, Modi's dilemma.
Modi is undoubtedly the first person responsible for the collapse of the Indian epidemic. He relaxed the social isolation restrictions early, trying to muddle through, and finally he paid the price for his ignorance. However, Modi's inaction is also helpless. Neither India's political system, India's medical resources nor India's logistics system support Modi's Chinese-style social isolation.
The success of China's urban closure and social isolation is inseparable from China's highly developed infrastructure and big data Internet system. During the period of closing the city, a large number of delivery agents and couriers came and went, which ensured the supply of materials in the community, and normal work and life could be realized with the help of the Internet. Only based on such technical conditions can China's centralization effectively implement social isolation and urban closure, but India obviously does not have this condition.
India's political system is not a loose confederation, but a centralized federalism. India's central government has a lot of power. Theoretically, it can also implement certain city closures and social isolation, but the biggest problem in India is the lack of resources.
India's infrastructure is far less than China's, and the Internet of Things system is in the ascendant, so India simply has no ability to carry out large-scale material distribution. Indian people's quality, financial resources and medical resources are far inferior to those of China. Even if it is as rich as China, it mobilized the resources of the whole country during the anti-epidemic in Wuhan, which quickly stabilized the situation. Obviously, India does not have this ability.
Modi ended social isolation early, not because he was stupid, but because he found that India could not imitate China. Even if the Indians obey his orders and feel isolated at home, he can't guarantee the supply of materials. If it is implemented, many Indians will starve to death. His relaxation of the ban is a complete violation.
However, the virus is an out-and-out materialist and will not let it go just because India is poor. It has spread rapidly in the slums of India, and the dirty living environment of the poor has become a hotbed of virus breeding. Under the ravages of the virus, the poor Indians who are not afraid of death are also afraid of death this time.
There are no eggs under the nest, poor areas fall, and rich areas are not spared. The rich areas in New Delhi were also captured by the virus, and a large number of rich people were infected. COVID-19 has become a national disaster for the Indian people, both rich and poor.
This dilemma far exceeds Modi's ability to cope. If left unchecked, Modi will miss the next prime minister. He will lose his reputation and become a sinner in India. The only thing he can count on is America.
If the United States and the European Union can do their best to help India, Modi may still have a chance.
Third, Biden's crossroads.
For Biden, India is an indispensable part of reshaping the Asia-Pacific alliance. Biden claimed to unite allies against China, and India was the most powerful force in South Asia. There is indeed an intractable territorial dispute between India and China. India is the best pawn for the United States to contain China.
Therefore, in the face of Modi's request for advice, Biden quickly responded. He promised that the United States would do its utmost to support India's vaccines, medicines, raw materials for vaccine production and other materials, and said that India provided help when the epidemic in the United States was serious. Now the United States will not sit idly by.
Biden mentioned that Modi will get help in the following six aspects:
1. India is the production base of Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine. By supplying a large number of raw materials for vaccine manufacturing, India with raw materials can improve the production speed of vaccine.
2. Supply a large number of medical materials, such as protective clothing and masks, to protect medical staff in India.
3. Supply a large number of ventilators to reduce the mortality rate of patients in India.
4. Expand the production base of Pfizer vaccine in India, and strive to produce 1 100 million vaccines in 2022.
5. Send experts from CDC to cooperate with India to fight the epidemic.
6. Call on international forces to help India and tide over the difficulties with India.
Biden's words are good, but I'm not sure to what extent. For Biden, he must choose between the future risks and the needs of his allies.
Choosing the former is tantamount to self-destruction, and India will lose the loyalty of its allies. Choosing the latter must bear the possibility of a recurrence of the American epidemic.
The United States has a fast vaccination rate and a high vaccine production capacity. Many States have stored vaccines that can't be used up in a year. However, the United States has stocked vaccines to deal with possible crises. The global epidemic has not improved, and there is still the possibility of recurrence. The United States must be prepared for the recurrence of the epidemic. Moreover, although there are many vaccines in the United States, India has a larger population. In order to achieve mass immunization, India may need 2 billion vaccines. Even if 50% of the population is vaccinated, India needs at least 654.38+03 billion vaccines.
At present, the United States is unable to help India.
Vaccine is the fastest way to control the epidemic. Others, such as providing ventilators, protective clothing and experts, are a drop in the bucket. For India, where the epidemic is out of control, talking is better than nothing.
Although Biden's efforts can't save India, American aid is more about attitude, which shows that the United States attaches importance to India as an ally and shows that the United States is a big country with credibility. For Modi and the People's Party, as long as Biden tries his best, even if the result is not satisfactory, it is a great kindness. Biden's assistance will have the effect of Marshall Plan.
It is necessary to help India for the national interests of the United States, but Biden should consider not only the national interests, but also the election interests.
If the United States provides large-scale assistance to India, the epidemic in the United States will recur for various reasons and there is not enough vaccine, then the public will definitely vent their anger on Biden. In that case, let alone Biden running for president, the Democratic Party will lose the midterm election. If Biden chooses national interests, he must bear possible election risks.
Election interests or national interests are the crossroads in front of Biden. He must make a choice between possible risks and the credibility of the United States. Biden's choice will be a test of his true composition. Biden, an extremely hypocritical, selfish and ambitious politician, will pay attention to whether Biden is willing to take the risk of losing the election for the national interests of the United States at this moment.
The collapse of the Indian epidemic is not only Modi's dilemma, but also Biden's crossroads. The relationship between the United States and India has entered a new stage, and Biden's disposal will determine the success or failure of the US Asia-Pacific strategy.
Of course, we have to anticipate a worst-case scenario, that is, Biden will spare no effort to help India. Modi is glad that the epidemic in the United States has not been repeated, and he regards China as the object of transferring contradictions, so as to transfer the condemnation of Indian nationals by propagating that China made the virus. In that case, the United States will become the savior of India, and we will bear Modi's guilt. This situation is undoubtedly the worst result.