During the Golden Week, the number of tourists rose sharply. Once again, the economic recovery after the epidemic was mainly driven by the service industry. On the other hand, the recently released PMI index of manufacturing industry in April fell back to the contraction range, reflecting that the manufacturing industry is still facing internal and external downward pressure. Manufacturing and related production and service industries are not only the main force to create formal jobs in China, but also involve formal jobs for nearly 200 million people. At the same time, manufacturing is also the most important trigger for productivity growth. Therefore, taking effective measures to promote the recovery of manufacturing industry is not only the key to prevent the economic recovery from stalling, but also the need to achieve efficiency-driven and high-quality development.
The next three years will be a crucial period for industrial upgrading and technological transformation of China's manufacturing industry. Before the technology containment of the United States, followed by the pursuers of Southeast Asian economies such as Vietnam and India, and the fierce resurgence of the global industrial chain, we are bound to face unprecedented challenges. At the same time, we should also see three favorable conditions and great potential for us to move towards high-end manufacturing.
First, although China bid farewell to the demographic dividend, it ushered in the engineer dividend.
In the next five years, there will be more than10 million college graduates in China every year, among which science and engineering graduates account for more than 45%. This scale is not only 10 times that of China University graduates 20 years ago, but also exceeds the sum of the United States, Germany, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and India. Such a large-scale supply of college graduates will provide a unique talent advantage for technological innovation of enterprises. For example, Wang Chuanfu, the founder of BYD, recently made it clear that BYD will engage in crowd tactics in technology and plans to increase the number of engineers from the current 60,000 to 200,000. It is believed that more enterprises from all walks of life will make full use of the advantages of large-scale talents to innovate products, technological processes and services.
Second, China's continuous investment in infrastructure construction since 2008 has not only completely eliminated bottlenecks in energy and transportation, but also greatly improved the comprehensive quality of infrastructure construction in China to the average level of developed countries.
This will provide strong support for the more scientific regional layout of manufacturing industry chain and the creation of advanced manufacturing clusters. At the same time, as the most important public goods in the economy, the substantial improvement of infrastructure has a huge long-term spillover effect on the overall economy. The gradual appearance of this spillover effect will surely become an important driving force for the upgrading of manufacturing industry.
Third, in recent years, our innovation system has achieved remarkable results.
The trinity national innovation system of national scientific research institutes, universities and enterprises has been further strengthened, and the innovation ability has been significantly improved. According to the latest global innovation index, China's innovation capability is before the world 15. Although there is still a big gap compared with the first echelon of the United States, Germany and South Korea, compared with 10 years ago, our ranking has improved by 22 places, and it is also the only low-and middle-income country in the world that has squeezed into 15. Internationally recognized important scientific and technological indicators show that the number of scientific papers and technical patents in China has increased rapidly in recent years, ranking among the top in the world. Of course, there is still a big gap between us and the first echelon in the world in the quality of papers and patents.
How to give full play to these three advantages, deal with multiple challenges and accelerate the pace of manufacturing towards the middle and high end is the key to achieving high-quality development in the next five years. At present, the economy is experiencing an unbalanced recovery trend of strong service industry and weak manufacturing industry. The next step is to make good use of the reserved space in macro and industrial policies, continue to make efforts to support the recovery of manufacturing industry, and introduce more effective and effective practical measures to promote the manufacturing industry to return to the normal operation track of industrial upgrading as soon as possible.
First, vigorously boost the confidence of business entities.
Private enterprises are the main force of China's manufacturing industry. In the first quarter, the Politburo meeting once again stressed the need to adhere to the "two unswervings", break down the legal and regulatory obstacles and hidden barriers that affect the fair competition and development of enterprises of all types of ownership, constantly boost the confidence of enterprises and help them regain their vitality. It is expected that governments and departments at all levels will take immediate action to consolidate the socialist legal foundation for protecting citizens' property rights, speed up the revision of laws, regulations and policies related to enterprises, and continue to break down barriers that affect equal access. At the same time, improve the fair competition system, oppose local protection and administrative monopoly, speed up the establishment of a unified national market system, treat all enterprises equally, and make fair competition legal, market-oriented and international.
Second, increase credit support for enterprise equipment renewal investment.
Further increase investment in central bank equipment, reduce carbon refinancing, and guide commercial banks to invest more credit in manufacturing. Banks are still dominant in China's financial system, so we should encourage and force banks to increase their support for manufacturing upgrading and technological innovation through the innovation of structural monetary policy tools. In the past, banks have long favored mortgage loans in real estate, railway machinery and other fields. It is not easy to transfer credit loans in the future, and it needs guidance, encouragement and spur. At the same time, as an important measure for the financial industry to better serve the real economy, more manufacturing enterprises should be supported to raise funds for equipment renewal and technological transformation by issuing bonds and stocks. The investment of one enterprise is the order of another enterprise. Expanding investment in manufacturing equipment renewal can not only stimulate total demand, but also accelerate industrial upgrading and technological innovation, and achieve high-quality development led by productivity growth.
Third, introduce a package of measures such as taxation, industrial policy and international cooperation to stabilize exports.
Scientifically respond to geopolitical changes and stabilize and improve political and business relations with major trading partners. China's manufacturing industry has become the core node of the global industrial chain. Therefore, promoting high-level opening to the outside world, expanding cross-border trade and attracting more high-quality foreign investment are important prerequisites for future manufacturing upgrading. On the one hand, expand market access and reduce the negative list of foreign investment access. On the other hand, actively promote the accession to high-standard economic and trade agreements such as Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (CPTPP) and Digital Economy Partnership Agreement (DEPA), and strive for the necessary international environment and market space for China's manufacturing industry upgrading and technological innovation.