Abstract: At present, the research on China-ASEAN Free Trade Area in China is mostly about the strategic background and significance, but the evaluation of economic impact is insufficient. Although the free trade zone that has been built now has more or less political and strategic considerations, the free trade zone is first and foremost an arrangement of economic and trade relations. Although it is a wheel and tool to realize political and strategic intentions, it is not a political arrangement in itself, and its strategic, political and diplomatic significance is derived rather than replaced. Therefore, the main task of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area should be to promote trade, investment and economic cooperation between the two sides. If we can't effectively promote the development of bilateral economic and trade relations. Therefore, the key issue is how to make China-ASEAN Free Trade Area play its economic function. This paper analyzes the influence of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area on the future trade in goods, services, investment and economic growth between the two sides, discusses the position that China should take on the main issues of the free trade area, and puts forward some suggestions to deal with the influence of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, improve the negotiation organization and improve the decision-making mechanism of the free trade area.

China's decision to establish a free trade area with ASEAN is an important strategic decision. Both China and ASEAN have high hopes for a free trade area. It is hoped that its completion will help the two sides to complement each other's advantages, unite and strengthen themselves, open up new space for economic development, resist the risks brought by economic globalization and enhance the status of Asian countries in international economic and trade affairs.

First, the economic impact of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area

The establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area will not only greatly reduce the tariff and non-tariff barriers between the two sides, but also reduce the investment barriers between the two sides and expand the cooperation space between the two sides. And what specific impact will all this have on both sides and their major trading partners?

1. The reduction of tariffs will significantly increase the trade volume between China and ASEAN, among which textiles, clothing and mechanical and electrical products will benefit the most, and intra-industry trade will be greatly improved.

According to the calculation of CTAP model, the establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area will increase China's exports to ASEAN by 654.38+006 billion US dollars, which is 55. 1% higher than that before the establishment of the Free Trade Area. Among them, the export growth to the Philippines and Thailand was the most significant, with an increase of 3 1 100 million US dollars respectively. From the perspective of product structure, the biggest increase in China's exports to ASEAN will be textiles and garments, mechanical and electrical products and other manufactured goods, among which the export of textiles and garments in the Philippines and Thailand will increase greatly, and the mechanical and electrical products will mainly expand their market share in the Philippines and Thailand, and other manufactured goods will increase the most in the Philippine market, reaching 654.38+02 billion US dollars.

ASEAN's exports to China will increase by US$ 654.38+03 billion, an increase of 48%. The main beneficiaries are Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand. The products with the largest increase in ASEAN's exports to China are textiles and garments, mechanical and electrical products and other manufactured goods. Among them, Indonesia's exports of other manufactured goods to China increased by $6,543.803 billion, Singapore's exports of mechanical and electrical products to China increased by $6,543.803 billion, and Thailand's exports of textiles and clothing to China increased by $6,543.807 billion.

From the above structural analysis, it can be seen that the establishment of free trade zone will greatly promote the development of intra-industry trade between the two sides, especially in textile and garment products, mechanical and electrical products and other manufactured goods.

2. The establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area will enhance the overall attraction of the region to foreign direct investment to a certain extent, but mutual investment, especially China's investment in ASEAN, will not increase significantly in the short term.

The establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area can enhance the attractiveness of the region to foreign investment for the following reasons:

The first is the tariff differences and rules of origin inside and outside the region. After the establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, enterprises outside the area will not be able to enjoy preferential tariffs in the area if they do not invest in the area. Rules of origin play the role of pressure mechanism, and external enterprises can only enjoy tariff preferences if they meet the rules of origin of free trade zones. Without a considerable amount of direct investment, they can not meet the requirements of the rules of origin, so they can not get preferential tariff treatment.

The second is the substitution of investment for trade caused by trade transfer effect. The so-called trade diversion effect means that both country B and country C can produce a product that country A needs, but the product produced by country B is not as good as that of country C, so country A imports this product from country C, but after countries A and B establish a free trade zone, the price of this product in country B is cheaper than that in country C, so the product in country B crowds out the product in country C, which is the trade diversion effect on country C ... In order to get rid of this disadvantage, Enterprises in country C may invest in country A or country B. The establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area will also have a certain trade diversion effect on countries outside Europe, America, Japan and other countries, which may force them to increase their investment in China-ASEAN Free Trade Area.

The third is the expansion of open areas and the improvement of investment environment. The establishment of a free trade zone is a signal to open wider to the outside world, increase transparency and improve the investment environment, thus promoting investment. In addition, the new generation of free trade agreements (such as North American Free Trade Agreement, Nippon Free Trade Agreement and Such Mexico Free Trade Agreement) itself includes investment protection clauses, investment liberalization measures and investment dispute settlement mechanisms. This is a hard commitment to investors, which is conducive to enhancing investors' confidence and improving the profit prospects of investing in the region, so it can promote investment. In addition, in the long run, the regional market integration formed by the establishment of a free trade zone will improve the competitiveness of enterprises and the efficiency of resource allocation, and also help attract investment.

The mechanism of promoting investment in China-ASEAN Free Trade Area is: the establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area → the reduction or disappearance of tariff and non-tariff barriers in the area → the reduction of operating costs in the area (the relative increase of operating costs of enterprises outside the area) → the increase of profit opportunities for enterprises in the area → the increase of investment in the area. Of course, it is necessary to analyze the dependence of different industries on factors of production in the region. Here, taking the abolition of high tariff barriers in free trade zones as an example to illustrate the impact on attracting foreign investment. At present, ASEAN imposes high tariffs on float glass, motorcycles, wine and some grains, poultry products and sugar. Imported from China, the tariff of some products exceeds 100%. At the same time, China also imposes tariffs of more than 20% on imported vegetables and fruits, meat products, poultry and seafood, rice, sugar, textiles, clothing, chemical products and beverage products. If the tariffs on these products are abolished in the free trade zone, it will be beneficial for China to attract foreign investment in float glass, motorcycles and some agricultural products, for ASEAN to attract foreign investment in textiles, clothing and chemical products, and for increasing mutual investment in certain agricultural and sideline products and sugar.

Of course, there are many factors that affect the inflow of foreign direct investment, such as cross-border mergers and acquisitions, exchange rate changes, investment climate in the country of origin and so on. Therefore, the establishment of a free trade zone does not mean that the inflow of direct investment will definitely increase, nor does it mean that it will not fluctuate violently. But what is certain is that the establishment of a free trade zone is a positive factor to attract foreign investment.

However, the promotion of FTA to mutual investment between China and ASEAN will not be great in the near future, especially China's investment in ASEAN will not increase on a large scale. Because, first, the trade creation effect of the free trade zone will produce the substitution effect of trade on investment. For example, due to the existence of tariff and non-tariff barriers, some ASEAN enterprises used to invest in China. Now, with the establishment of the free trade zone, tariff and non-tariff barriers have been lowered, so there is no need to move their factories to China, only to increase their exports to China. Second, the vast majority of countries in this free trade zone are capital importing countries, and the development stage has not yet reached the point of expanding foreign investment. Third, most countries in the region have serious investment barriers, and the investment environment is unlikely to improve significantly in the short term. Fourthly, the starting point of China's investment in ASEAN is very low, and China enterprises lack due competitiveness in more developed ASEAN countries suitable for investment, while the investment obstacles of ASEAN members with lower development level are even greater. Therefore, China-ASEAN Free Trade Area will not greatly promote mutual investment in the near future.

The reduction of tariffs and the increase of direct investment will promote the economic growth of both sides.

The establishment of free trade zone will increase the real GDP of China and ASEAN by 7.6 billion US dollars, of which China will increase by 2.2 billion US dollars, an increase of 0.27%, and ASEAN will increase by 5.4 billion US dollars. Among ASEAN countries, Vietnam has the highest growth rate, reaching 2. 15%, and Indonesia has the highest growth rate, reaching 2.268 billion US dollars (see Table 5).

In addition, the increase of direct investment will also increase the total factor productivity of both sides, which will also promote economic growth. According to Rybezynski's theory (the increased foreign investment is divided into primary industry and manufacturing industry or light industry and heavy chemical industry), the increase of direct investment will expand the output level, improve productivity and promote the economic development to a larger scale and higher level. Table 6 shows the relationship between direct investment and the improvement of total factor productivity under different modes of foreign capital distribution.

As can be seen from the table, if the FDI of US$ 3 billion is increased, the total factor productivity of manufacturing industry and heavy chemical industry will increase by 0.853% and 0.983% respectively. The data is obtained under extremely strict assumptions, but it fully shows that FDI can improve labor productivity and economic efficiency, thus promoting sustainable economic development.

Although the growth is not much, it is important that the establishment of ASEAN Free Trade Area will play a positive role in promoting the economic growth of all member countries, and the real GDP of all member countries will increase.

Reducing non-tariff barriers will help expand exports and increase economic welfare.

Non-tariff barriers are difficult to quantify. According to the research report of UNCTAD (1994), all kinds of formalities related to customs clearance alone are equivalent to 7%- 10% of the total trade volume. If these areas are coordinated, these costs will be reduced by 25%, which means that the income equivalent to 0.75%-2.50% of the total trade value of 65438+ will increase. Based on the data of 200 1, after the establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, the coordination and simplification of customs clearance procedures will increase the economic benefits of China by at least 720 million US dollars.

Differences in standards and certification also hinder trade between China and ASEAN. According to the study in 1998 by the US Department of Commerce and the European Commission, 25% of the products with global trade value are exported with technical regulations, of which 15%-25% are technical barriers to export, which come from different standards and certifications. The export losses caused by technical regulations related to standards and certification account for 3.75%-6.25% of the total export value. Therefore, if the establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area can be standardized and certified, based on the data of 201,China's exports to ASEAN will increase by 686 million US dollars. Overall, China can get at least $654.38+04 billion in additional income from reducing non-tariff barriers (see Table 7).

In addition, trade facilitation can increase the welfare of both places. The two sides will coordinate the management and operation of customs, banks and transportation departments by establishing an electronic data exchange system in the region, which will greatly improve the efficiency of bilateral trade. If an e-commerce system is established on this basis, both parties will gain great benefits. Unifying standards, certification and technical organization through bilateral mutual recognition agreements can greatly reduce the cost of inspection, credit and certification, and the inspection and certification market itself will expand due to the coordination and unification of both parties. In terms of intellectual property protection, the two sides can establish a unified intellectual property protection system through technical cooperation.

5. The establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area will not greatly promote the overall service trade in the near future, but it will promote some fields.

The World Trade Organization classifies services into 12 categories, including commercial services, communication services, construction and related engineering services, distribution services, education services, environmental services, financial services, health services, tourism services, entertainment, cultural and sports services, transportation services and other services. Service trade can be divided into four forms: cross-border provision, consumption abroad, commercial existence and natural person flow. The opening of service trade refers to four trade modes that open this 12 service category.

Due to the natural information asymmetry of many service activities and the synchronization of service consumption and production, it is very difficult to evaluate the impact of service trade opening. Theoretically, liberalization of trade in services will promote trade in goods. The World Bank's recent research on free trade zones shows that the liberalization of service trade has a particularly important positive role, because, first, unlike trade in goods, the obstacles to service trade are mainly quantitative restrictions, and service trade liberalization will not cause trade diversion effect; Second, investment in service industry is the basic input of other sectors of the national economy. In addition, the liberalization of trade in services is also conducive to attracting foreign direct investment. Because the free trade zone will not produce crowding-out effect, it may bring the benefits of market expansion to competitive service providers outside the zone and help attract FDI in service industries outside the zone.

The opening of service trade is also one of the important contents of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area. The degree of openness will go further on the basis of WTO commitments. At present, the service trade level between China and ASEAN is very low, which can be ignored statistically. In addition to both developing countries, the service industry lacks international competitiveness, and there are also many obstacles in the service trade between the two sides. Among the trade barriers in ASEAN, service trade barriers account for the largest proportion (see the report "Trade Barriers in ASEAN"). Almost all ASEAN countries have set up solid trade barriers in the fields of telecommunications, radio and television, finance and insurance, construction, accounting, law and distribution. Among them, the proportion of restricted foreign shares is the largest, which generally exists in finance, insurance, telecommunications and other industries. In addition, complicated administrative procedures (such as applying for work permit and temporary residence permit, it is difficult to apply for extension), inconvenient inland transportation, insufficient communication equipment, and difficulty in obtaining information have also caused resistance to the development of service trade. Needless to say, China's service trade also has many barriers. Such as the license system for banks to operate local currency business, the scale of insurance companies, and the equity restrictions in telecommunications.

Therefore, on the whole, the establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area will reduce the existing barriers to trade in services between the two sides, improve the level of trade in services between the two sides, and promote the inflow of foreign direct investment. But the promotion of service trade will not be too great in the near future. Because, firstly, the advantages brought by FTA to China's ASEAN service industry cannot offset the disadvantages in international competitiveness. That is to say, even if China gives ASEAN service enterprises more preferential treatment in terms of market access and national treatment, it still cannot compete with European, American and Japanese enterprises, so it is difficult to promote the service trade between the two sides. That is to say, due to the low level of service industry development between China and major ASEAN countries, the complementarity is not strong, even if the two sides give each other greater freedom and convenience in market access, it is difficult to greatly promote it. This is especially true in the fields of finance, telecommunications, distribution, education and health services. Especially in these areas, China has no comparative advantage in ASEAN and ASEAN in China. This is determined by the development level of the service industries of both sides at this stage. Second, according to GATS, developing countries can legally refuse to include many service sectors in the commitment of market opening, and the opening of China-ASEAN service industry will definitely take a step-by-step approach. The coverage of service trade commitments of major ASEAN countries may be limited, and its opening speed may be relatively slow. The degree of liberalization in the near future will be limited. Many restrictions are difficult to remove in the short term. Third, the service areas where both sides have advantages, such as tourism, have been quite open, and further opening up has little promotion. Of course, the situation will be different in different service sectors and different countries.

From the industry point of view, because China does not have comparative advantages in finance, communication and professional services, China and ASEAN may increase their imports after the establishment of the Free Trade Area, and the industries with great export potential are engineering contracting and cultural services. Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand may benefit more from construction, human resources development and training. For example, Singapore has great comparative advantages in architecture, finance, consulting services, telecommunications, education and training, while China has a huge construction market to be upgraded in terms of design, architectural concepts and management, and a large number of laborers eager to "recharge" and upgrade, which will make Singapore the biggest beneficiary of the opening of China's service industry.

Judging from the four modes of international service trade, China has obvious advantages in cross-border consumption and the movement of natural persons, and there is a large room for cross-border delivery, while commercial existence is the weak link.

The establishment of free trade zone is conducive to enhancing domestic competition and promoting the upgrading of China's industrial structure. China can use China-ASEAN Free Trade Area to accelerate the pace of trade and tariff reform and opening up, and provide important experience for fully opening up the market.

After the establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, the tariff protection of some products will be cancelled, and some domestic enterprises will face more fierce competition. This will force enterprises to improve technology, improve competitiveness through structural adjustment and other means, and then promote the upgrading of the entire industrial structure. Based on the fact that China-ASEAN Free Trade Area allows member countries to protect sensitive sectors to a certain extent and for a certain period of time, so that they will not cause excessive competitive pressure on economic restructuring in the process of integration. Therefore, it is more flexible and acceptable than the multilateral trading system, which has won some time for member countries to adjust their domestic industrial structure and deepen institutional reform, and has become a necessary experience and buffer in the face of global trade liberalization. China can use China-ASEAN Free Trade Area to accelerate the pace of trade and tariff reform and opening up, and provide important experience for fully opening up the market.

The establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area undoubtedly provides an international environment for China's small-scale tariff system reform, and can provide experience for the full opening of the market.

Second, the establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area strategic thinking

The establishment of China Freezing Union free trade will not only affect the interests of member countries, but also inevitably involve the interests of relevant countries or regions outside the region, such as the United States, Japan, India, Taiwan Province, Hong Kong and Macau. It is very important for the success of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area to formulate correct policies and properly handle related issues.

1. Properly handle relations with the United States and Japan and reduce interference from the United States.

China decided to establish a free trade area with ASEAN, which seized the opportunity in the process of regional economic cooperation in East Asia, and relevant countries or regions outside the region responded in succession. Many of these actions are measures taken to cope with the influence of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area. Although some of them are aimed at China, it is difficult for most countries to pose a serious challenge to China, and China's position in ASEAN will not be damaged. It only needs to be handled according to relevant international practices.

Only the United States and Japan have great influence and deep roots in ASEAN, which is the biggest external constraint of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area. However, the interests of the United States and Japan in ASEAN are different. The strategic interests of the United States in ASEAN are mainly political and military interests, and economic interests are relatively secondary. We don't have to worry too much about American obstruction. Strategies to be adopted for the United States: First, be good at using contradictions to expand our understanding of the United States; Second, publicize the positive impact of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area on the United States; The third is to highlight the mutual benefit of economic cooperation and try to dilute China's geopolitical strategic intention.

Japan's interests in ASEAN are mainly manifested in economic aspects, and China-ASEAN Free Trade Area conflicts with Japan's interests. To this end, first, we can consider signing free trade agreements with Singapore, Thailand and South Korea outside the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area; Second, strengthen cooperation with Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar; Third, consider the feasibility of establishing a free trade zone with Japan, South Korea or other important trading partners, and prevent people from using the contradiction between China and Japan to contain China.

2. Pay attention to equal consultation and avoid the assumption of big countries.

At present, China needs to attach great importance to two issues in its cooperation with ASEAN. First, the psychology, pulse and interests of ASEAN countries are not grasped enough. We sincerely show the sincerity of cooperation, but ASEAN believes that we are imposing on others. One of the purposes of establishing a free trade area between China and ASEAN is to dispel ASEAN's doubts about the "China threat". Second, the eye is superior but the eye is inferior. We talk about the significance of China's leading role, but few people seriously study how to play a leading role. China has a lot to learn from ASEAN on the issue of establishing a free trade zone, and ASEAN is ahead of us and more experienced than us. They are actually in a very active position in the study of free trade zones, the formulation of free trade zone rules and the negotiation of free trade agreements. To a large extent, we still have the color of passive response, and we are not qualified and able to play a leading role in many aspects.

In a word, in order to realize the strategic intention of establishing a free trade zone, China must attach great importance to strategy, compare its own practices with hegemonism and power politics, pay attention to each other's feelings, avoid wishful thinking and self-righteousness, and try to avoid thankless and good intentions. At the same time, it is necessary to reduce the rush to achieve success and seriously grasp the ability to take the lead.

3. Look to the future, but be more realistic.

The establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area has two purposes: at present, it is to create a peaceful and friendly surrounding environment for domestic economic construction and add more fuel to domestic economic development; In the long run, it is to build a strategic platform for China to play a key role in political and economic affairs in the Asia-Pacific region and even the world. However, the relationship between real interests and long-term interests is complicated. Sometimes sacrificing some practical interests helps to realize long-term interests, but sometimes it is precisely because of sacrificing practical interests that long-term interests are ruined. We should strive for greater practical benefits in the establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area. First, whether China can play a key role in the future world structure depends on China's strength, especially its economic strength, which is the foundation of its people's livelihood. Some key provisions of the free trade zone have made too many concessions. On the surface, it only sacrificed the immediate economic interests, but in fact it planted the seeds of long-term sacrifice. Once the economic development is seriously affected by this, let alone unable to play a leading role, I am afraid it is too late to protect itself. Second, make appropriate concessions and give some assistance to countries with low development level in ASEAN. However, we must draw lessons from history in terms of concessions and assistance to ASEAN members. The world is a world that advocates strength, and unilateral generous assistance often fails to soften people's hearts. "If it is smooth, it will be kind, and if it is exhausted, it will be slow", not to mention the assistance given in the form of agreement, which will not be cherished. In the relations between countries, idealism must be abandoned, assistance should be provided when it is most needed, as far as possible in bilateral form, and the principle of "responding only when requested" should be followed.

Therefore, in the negotiations with ASEAN Free Trade Area, we should not blindly "sacrifice real interests for long-term interests", but strive for greater real interests as much as possible. Only in this way can China's long-term strategic goals be more likely to be realized.

Of course, we should have a far-sighted understanding of real interests and look at real interests dynamically. Not opening up, not giving in and not cooperating does not mean safeguarding realistic interests.

4. Correctly treat the problem of whether there is a zone in the area or a zone built outside the area.

At present, some ASEAN countries have signed free trade agreements with other countries outside the ASEAN Free Trade Area and China-ASEAN Free Trade Area. For example, Singapore has signed free trade agreements with New Zealand and Japan, and is discussing bilateral free trade agreements with the United States, Canada, Australia and Mexico. ASEAN has different views on the relationship between regional free trade areas and bilateral free trade agreements, fearing that this may open the back door for products from countries outside the region to enter ASEAN. It is also worried that the negotiation of bilateral free trade agreements will distract attention from existing or negotiating free trade zones. The signing of bilateral free trade agreements by these countries has attracted opposition from other countries in the region, and Malaysia has also publicly expressed its dissatisfaction with Singapore. However, some ASEAN countries think that setting up a bilateral free trade area first can set a good example, and put forward the proposal of setting up a bilateral free trade area with China, which will promote the early establishment of China-ASEAN free trade area. How to deal with the relationship between bilateral trade agreements and regional trade agreements is a realistic problem facing China and ASEAN.

It is very normal to establish a nuclear-free zone in this region and a nuclear-free zone outside this region. As long as we go our own way, it will not be a problem. China should also consider diversifying risks, instead of "putting all the eggs in one basket", and establish other free trade zones with countries inside and outside the region. The main problem of overlapping free trade agreements is not the rule conflict between bilateral free trade agreements and regional free trade agreements, but the burden and management cost of domestic customs. As long as the benefits brought by the country from multiple free trade zones outweigh the costs, as long as the management can keep up, it is not a problem. American trade policy has been carried out at three levels, namely, multilateral, regional and bilateral, which promote each other. When global multilateral negotiations are blocked and regional negotiations are not authorized by Congress, the US government often expands the market through bilateral channels to find a way out for its own products. Because compared with multilateral and regional negotiations, the free trade agreement between the two countries has the characteristics of short time and quick results, and it has been paid more and more attention by governments. The advantage of bilateral cooperation is that it can start with small-scale substantive cooperation, expand the scope of cooperation and improve the level of cooperation on this basis. In addition, the negotiation of bilateral free trade agreements is also a process of learning and experimentation, and many experiences can be directly applied to multilateral and regional negotiations.

Of course, China should strive to gain the understanding of ASEAN countries when negotiating bilateral free trade agreements with individual ASEAN countries. Bilateral free trade negotiations should serve the construction of China-ASEAN free trade area, and coordinate with it in the process to avoid adverse effects on the construction of China-ASEAN free trade area.

5. We should attach great importance to the factor of Taiwan Province Province in the construction of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, and prevent the free trade area from becoming a new excuse for Taiwan independence forces to split the motherland.

Taiwan Province Province is a sacred and inseparable part of the motherland, but since the mainland and Taiwan Province Province belong to different customs territories, the preferential treatment of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area naturally cannot directly benefit Taiwan Province Province. In this way, Taiwan Province Province will inevitably feel further marginalized and isolated. Therefore, Taiwan Province Province is looking for a way out. In fact, the International Trade Bureau of the Ministry of Economic Affairs of Taiwan Province Province has formulated various plans to establish a free trade zone. Among them, the evaluation and demonstration of establishing a free trade zone between Taiwan Province Province and the United States has basically ended, and the authorities of Taiwan Province Province are lobbying around the United States, but the American administration has scruples and has not yet made up its mind to negotiate. However, this does not mean that the US government is not enthusiastic about establishing a free trade zone with Taiwan Province Province, but is waiting for the opportunity to make full use of the card of establishing a free trade zone with Taiwan Province Province.

It is not terrible for Taiwan Province Province to establish a free trade zone with many other countries, because we can exert influence to prevent or even ignore it. However, the establishment of a free trade zone with the United States will have ulterior motives and endless troubles, which will have a very adverse impact on the reunification of the motherland. We cannot sit idly by. The question is whether we can stop it? How to stop it?

In this way, China must consider Taiwan Province Province when considering China-ASEAN Free Trade Area. Under the condition that the reunification of the motherland cannot be realized in a short time, the ideal choice is to promote the establishment of a free trade zone between the mainland greater China or Taiwan Province Province. However, at present, the authorities of Taiwan Province Province have refused even the three direct links, so it may not be realistic to get Taiwan Province Province to agree to establish a free trade zone with the mainland in a short time. Moreover, even if the "pan-blue" camp comes to power, there will be no breakthrough in this situation. To a great extent, Chen Shui-bian's policy is not a reflection of Chen's personal likes and dislikes, but is determined by many factors inside and outside Taiwan Province Province, mainly including the will of the United States, the will of some people in Taiwan Province Province and the characteristics of "elected" politics. Even if the Kuomintang is in power again, it will still be affected by these factors. By then, cross-strait policies may improve, but there is less possibility of sudden change. Therefore, this issue needs to be carefully studied, and more people's wisdom should be concentrated to put forward new ideas and methods.