1, human resources inventory, to understand the current situation of employees;
2. Analyze the enterprise's post adjustment policies and historical employee adjustment data, and make statistics on the employee adjustment ratio;
3. Learn about possible personnel adjustments from personnel decision makers in various departments;
4. Summarize the situations in 2 and 3, and get the internal human resource supply forecast;
5. Analyze the regional factors that affect the supply of external human resources, including:
(1) The overall situation of human resources where the company is located;
(2) The current situation of supply and demand of effective human resources where the company is located;
(3) the attraction of the company's location to talents;
(4) The attractiveness of company salary to local talents;
(5) The attractiveness of various benefits provided by the company to local talents;
(6) The attraction of the company itself to talents.
6. Analyze the national factors that affect the supply of external human resources, including:
(1) Number and distribution of graduates of related majors in China;
(2) National employment regulations and policies;
(3) the supply and demand of talents in this industry in China;
(4) Wage levels and differences of workers in China;
7. According to the analysis of 5 and 6, the external human resources supply forecast of the enterprise is obtained;
8. Summarize the internal human resource supply forecast and the external human resource supply forecast to get the enterprise human resource supply forecast.
First, the human resource demand forecast
The demand forecast of human resources is to estimate how many employees and what types of employees the organization needs in the future. Therefore, the demand forecast of human resources should be based on organizational goals, not only considering the current organizational structure, productivity level and other factors, but also foreseeing a series of changes brought about by the adjustment of organizational goals in the future, such as the adjustment of organizational structure, the change of product structure, the improvement of production technology and the adoption of new technologies. , and the resulting changes in the number and skills of human resources requirements.
1。 Manager's judgment method
Manager's judgment method is one of the most commonly used forecasting methods. This method requires managers to sit down and carefully analyze their workload or business volume in the future, and then determine how many people are needed. There are two forms of manager judgment: "bottom-up" and "top-down".
When forecasting the human resource demand in the form of "bottom-up", the front-line manager will submit the human resource demand forecasting scheme to the superior management department for approval.
In many cases, a "top-down" approach can also be adopted, in which the top management predicts the human resource needs of the company and its departments, and the personnel department participates in the discussion and puts forward suggestions. The forecast results should be discussed with the department manager and agreed by the department manager.
The best forecasting method is to combine "bottom-up" and "top-down" two forms. The top management prepares a human resource planning guide for department managers, which defines the basic ideas of the company's future business activities and the expected goals to be achieved. The department manager predicts the human resource demand of the department according to the plan guide, and the personnel department should provide consultation and help for the human resource demand prediction of the business department. At the same time, the personnel department should forecast the overall human resource demand of the company. The human resource planning team composed of the heads of major departments reviews and coordinates the demand forecast reports of business departments and personnel departments, and submits the revised human resource demand forecast report to the top management for approval.
2。 trend analysis
Trend analysis is to use the number of employees in the past to predict the future demand for human resources. The key to adopting this method is to choose a forecasting variable that has an important influence on the number of employees, and the most commonly used forecasting variable is sales volume. The relationship between sales volume and the number of employees is positively related. As shown in Figure 2-4, the horizontal axis represents sales and the vertical axis represents the actual number of employees. When the sales volume increases, the number of employees also increases. Using this method, managers can estimate the number of employees needed for different sales.
With the extensive use of computers, human resource managers have an important forecasting tool-regression analysis. Because the change of the company's business volume is directly proportional to the change of the number of employees, regression analysis has become the most commonly used forecasting method. However, in most cases, the number of employees is determined by many factors, so multiple regression can be considered for forecasting.
3。 principle of 5w
The premise of job analysis is to be able to determine the time and number of people needed to complete a job. When applying this method in a production enterprise, we must first determine the planned production capacity of the enterprise or the task capacity of each department, and then calculate the required number of direct workers according to the standard working hours of direct production workers and the normal working hours of each worker every year.
This method can be combined with the proportional analysis method to calculate the number of indirect production personnel needed.
4。 Proportional analysis method
Proportional analysis is to predict the proportion of direct production personnel and indirect production personnel in the future by analyzing the proportion of direct production personnel and indirect production personnel in the past and considering the possible changes in the organization or production mode in the future. When the number of direct production personnel is determined by job analysis method, the number of indirect production personnel can be determined by proportional analysis method.
Second, the human resources supply forecast
Human resource demand forecasting is only one aspect of human resource planning. Through demand forecasting, the organization can know the number of people and the skill requirements of people needed to achieve the goal in a certain period in the future. In addition, organizations need to know how many people they need and how to get them. Human resource supply forecast is to measure the amount of human resources that an organization may obtain from its internal and external sources. It should be based on the analysis of the existing personnel of the organization, and at the same time, consider the personnel flow within the organization, so as to know how many employees stay in their current positions, how many employees leave their current positions to work in new positions due to job rotation, promotion and demotion, and how many employees leave the organization due to retirement, transfer, resignation or dismissal.
1。 Analysis of existing personnel situation
Existing personnel analysis is the basis of human resources supply forecast. When analyzing the existing personnel situation, we can analyze it from different angles according to the information collected by the human resources information system or personnel files and different requirements. For example, by analyzing the age structure of employees, we can find out whether the organization is aging or whether there will be a retirement peak in the short term. Analyzing the length of service structure of employees is helpful to understand the flow and retention of employees; Analyzing the skills and performance of existing employees is helpful to understand which employees have development potential. What is the development potential? Is it possible to become a member of the management echelon? What are the possible promotion positions in the future? In addition, we can also analyze the proportion of managers and non-managers of the organization, the proportion of skilled workers and unskilled workers, the proportion of direct production personnel and indirect production personnel, and the proportion of production personnel and administrative personnel according to needs, so as to understand the professional structure of the organization and the proportion structure of different personnel. Skill list is an effective method to analyze the situation of existing personnel.
2。 Analysis of employee turnover
Staff turnover is an important reason for the shortage of organizational staff, so the analysis of staff turnover is a factor that can not be ignored when forecasting the supply of human resources. The analysis of employee turnover can be carried out with a series of indicators.
(1) employee turnover rate analysis
The purpose of employee turnover rate analysis is to grasp the number of employee turnover and analyze the reasons for employee turnover, so as to take timely measures.
Employee turnover rate = the number of employees who leave the organization within a certain period (usually one year) ÷ the average number of employees in the same period × 100%.
This index is widely used because it is easy to calculate and understand. But this indicator is sometimes misleading. Suppose a company has 100 employees, and the annual employee turnover rate of the company is 3%. According to the calculation formula of employee turnover rate, it is predicted that three people may leave in the next year, which means that there may be three vacancies in the company. However, after careful analysis, it is found that the 3% employee turnover rate is caused by the frequent turnover of a small number of employees in the company. For example, three people leave the company as programmers a year. Although the turnover rate is still 3%, there is actually only one vacancy.
Therefore, when analyzing the employee turnover rate, we should not only calculate the total employee turnover rate from the perspective of the company, but also calculate the employee turnover rate by department, specialty, post and post level, so as to help us understand the real situation of employee turnover and analyze the reasons for employee turnover.
(2) Analysis of service years of employees
After analyzing the employee turnover, some companies found that the service years of the resigned employees were unevenly distributed. Generally speaking, the employee turnover peak appears in two stages. The first stage occurs in the early days when employees join the organization. Before joining an organization, an employee has an expectation or an ideal model for the organization. After entering the organization, he may feel that the real organization is different from his expectation, or he is not suitable for the culture or work of the organization. In this case, employees will leave the organization soon. Then there will be a relatively stable stage. The second peak of turnover usually occurs after four years of service. After several years of work, employees have accumulated some work experience and are tired of their original jobs. If the organization can't inspire employees' new work enthusiasm at this stage, or employees can't see career development opportunities, they will leave soon. The analysis of employees' service years can not only provide supplementary information for employee turnover analysis, but also provide useful information for employee development. Figure 3-5 shows the relationship between employee service years and turnover rate.
(3) Analysis of employee retention rate
Employee retention rate analysis is also an important indicator of employee turnover analysis. It is to calculate the ratio of the number of employees who stay in the company after a certain period of time to the number of employees at the beginning. For example, there are 10 programmers at the beginning of the company, and seven programmers stay in the company after two years, so the retention rate for two years is 70%. Four people stayed in the company after five years, and the five-year retention rate was 40%. By calculating the retention rate, the company can know how many employees stay in the company and how many employees leave the company after a few years.
3。 Analysis of employee flow in the organization
Job rotation, promotion or demotion within an organization is the need of management and employee development. Changes in personnel within an organization caused by job rotation, promotion or demotion often produce a series of chain reactions. For example, the financial director of the company retires, the financial manager of the finance department is promoted to the financial director, and the accountant is promoted to the financial manager, and so on. With the retirement of CFO, a series of job vacancies have emerged: CFO, financial manager, accountant ... The mobility of employees in the organization is not only the internal source of human resources supply, but also creates new job vacancies. Many enterprises know the internal staff flow through echelon plan, retirement plan and job rotation plan of managers, look for job vacancies and provide information for human resource supply forecast.
Transformation matrix is a common method to analyze employee flow within an organization. The basic idea of this method is to find out the law of past personnel changes and infer the trend of future human resources changes. The transformation matrix describes the overall form of employee inflow, outflow and internal flow in an organization, which provides a basis for predicting the supply of internal human resources.
The first step of transformation matrix analysis is to make a personnel change matrix table. Each factor in the table represents the historical average percentage of personnel changes from one period to another. The period of 5 ~ 10 years is usually used to estimate the annual average percentage. The longer the period, the higher the accuracy of the percentage. Multiply the number of employees in each job at the beginning of the plan by the probability of employee change in this job, and then add them vertically to get the net supply of future labor within the organization.
In any year, 80% of the partners stay in the organization and 20% of the partners leave; Among the managers, 10% was promoted, 70% stayed in the organization and 20% left. As can be seen from Table 2-3, of the original 40 partners, 8 may leave, 8 of whom can be promoted from the manager, and the total number of partners is still 40. Of the original 80 managers, 8 were promoted and 16 resigned. It is estimated that six senior accountants will be promoted to managers, and the number of managers is expected to be 62.
The transformation matrix method has been adopted by many companies, but the probability in the transformation matrix may be different from the actual situation. Especially now, the rapidly changing environment and the intensification of talent competition have accelerated the flow of employees. Therefore, other related factors need to be considered when applying the transformation matrix method.
4. Analysis of human resources supply channels.
The task of human resource supply forecasting is to know how many human resources an organization can obtain and how to obtain these people. The analysis of supply channels provides the second information.
There are two main ways to supply human resources: internal supply and external supply. When there is a vacancy in an organization, we can first consider whether we can fill the vacancy from within the organization through job rotation and promotion. When the demand for human resources caused by job vacancies cannot be met internally or completely, it must be solved through external supply channels.
However, in many cases, it is not easy to find and hire excellent employees in time. For example, with the rapid development of the global it industry, it talents are in short supply. According to the report of American Information Technology Association, among the 6.5438+600 million it jobs created in 2000, there will be 830,000 vacancies. Australian authorities predict that there will be a shortage of 30,000 it professionals in 2000. Due to the shortage of it professionals, the competition for talents has also reached a fever pitch. Not only companies and enterprises try their best to compete for talents, but also countries have formulated corresponding policies to attract talents. For example, the United States and Germany have launched green card programs. Therefore, when forecasting the supply of human resources, we must have a clear judgment on the supply of labor market.
Typical steps of human resource demand forecasting
The forecast of human resource demand is divided into three parts: realistic human resource demand, future human resource demand forecast and future loss human resource demand forecast. The specific steps are as follows:
1, according to the results of job analysis, determine the work preparation and staffing;
2. Take stock of human resources, and make statistics on the understaffing and overstaffing of personnel and whether they meet the post qualification requirements;
3. Discuss the above statistical conclusions with the department manager and modify the statistical conclusions;
4. The statistical conclusion is the actual demand for human resources;
5, according to the enterprise development plan, determine the workload of each department;
6. According to the increase of workload, determine the positions and numbers that need to be increased in each department, and make summary statistics;
7. The statistical conclusion is the future demand for human resources;
8. Statistics of retirees during the forecast period;
9. According to the historical data, predict the possible future turnover;
10. Summarize the statistics and forecast results in August and September, and get the demand for human resources lost in the future;
1 1. Summarize the actual human resource demand, future human resource demand and future lost human resource demand, and get the overall human resource demand forecast of the enterprise.
Mine is not very comprehensive either. hope this helps