1. The occurrence and development of the century-old crisis on Wall Street. Wall Street is the most concentrated block of American financial institutions, the birthplace of modern financial industry and the "brain" of the global financial system. Since February 2007, the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States has gradually escalated, with house prices plummeting, the stock market plummeting, investment banks going bankrupt, and Wall Street on the verge of collapse (see chart on the next page). The scope, influence and impact of this financial crisis are rare since 1930s.
2. The impact of the Wall Street financial crisis. (1) The subprime mortgage crisis that broke out on Wall Street quickly spread in two directions: First, it spread to the financial systems of other countries. Europe's financial system bears the brunt, and EU countries are on the verge of enemies. Iceland even changed from the richest country in the world to the first country on the verge of bankruptcy due to the financial crisis overnight. South Korea, Ukraine and other countries are also facing huge debt pressure. The second is transmitted to the real economy. Judging from the employment, retail sales and other indicators, as well as the current situation of manufacturing giants such as General Motors, the American economy has inevitably entered a recession. Previously, Britain had become the first country to fall into recession due to the financial crisis. (2) The international financial crisis has spread from local to global, from developed countries to emerging market countries, and from the financial sector to the real economy, which has seriously affected the economic development and people's lives of all countries in the world.
Causes of "Financial Tsunami": (1) Defects and loopholes in financial supervision. Risk assessment and financial supervision are far behind the pace of innovation, and the rapid expansion of credit without monitoring is fragile. (2) The excessive consumption pattern of "living within our means" in the United States. Relying on the inflation of asset prices, the Bank of America made innovations in housing mortgage loans, issued a large number of consumer credit, and improved the consumption capacity of the United States. In this process, a large number of systemic risks have been accumulated. (3) The virtual economy is out of touch with the real economy. Because the expected wealth growth rate of the stock market far exceeds the speed that the real economy can support, and the society has no timely error correction mechanism to prevent the further separation of the virtual economy and the real economy, the expansion and bursting of the bubble is inevitable. (4) Defects in the world financial system.
Respond to the global financial crisis
1. Countermeasures against the global financial crisis. (1) The urgent task is to continue to take all necessary measures to restore market confidence as soon as possible and curb the spread and spread of the financial crisis. (2) Major developed economies should assume their due responsibilities and obligations, implement macroeconomic policies that are conducive to the economic and financial stability and development of their own countries and the world, and actively stabilize their own and international financial markets. (3) Countries should strengthen macroeconomic policy coordination, expand economic and financial information exchange, and deepen international financial supervision and cooperation.
2. Pay attention to developing countries. (1) Reason: The developing countries have a low level of economic development, a single economic structure, and a weak financial system. (2) Countermeasures: First, help developing countries maintain financial stability and economic growth. Second, effectively maintain and increase assistance to developing countries. Third, effectively safeguard the economic and financial stability of developing countries.
3. China's countermeasures. (1) Macro-control has been strengthened, maintaining the momentum of steady and rapid economic development, and the basic situation of China's economic development has not changed. China's steady and rapid economic development is itself an important contribution to maintaining international financial stability and promoting world economic development. (2) The China government will continue to take effective measures to expand domestic demand, especially consumer demand, to achieve steady and rapid economic growth and play a constructive role in promoting world economic stability.
Related knowledge 1 Reform the international financial system and international economic order
1. The urgency of the reform of the international financial system and economic order. After World War II, he held the international monetary and financial system for a long time, amassed wealth, exercised hegemony and supported American economic prosperity. However, after the Cold War, the international financial order dominated by the United States was constantly in crisis and stretched. The outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis and its far-reaching impact show that the international financial system and international economic order led by the United States have not only failed to enhance the ability of the global economy to resist risks, but have become the chief culprit in accelerating the spread of the crisis.
2. China participates in international financial cooperation: (1) As a responsible member of the international community, China has played an active role in maintaining international financial stability and promoting world economic development. (2) China is willing to continue to participate in international cooperation in maintaining international financial stability and promoting world economic development, and increase its support for developing countries affected by the financial crisis.
3. China advocates the necessary reform of the international financial system. Principle (1): comprehensiveness, balance, gradualness and effectiveness. (2) Direction: Establish a fair, just, inclusive and orderly new international financial order. (3) Measures: First, strengthen international financial supervision cooperation and improve the international supervision system. The second is to promote the reform of international financial organizations and improve the representation and voice of developing countries in international financial organizations. The third is to encourage regional financial cooperation. Fourth, improve the international monetary system, promote its diversification and support its stability.
Related knowledge 2 Economic globalization and its influence
1. Economic globalization refers to the deepening interdependence and mutual penetration of countries' economies under the impetus of the scientific and technological revolution and the continuous development of production internationalization, forming an organic whole. Economic globalization is an objective process and the product of the development of productive forces to a new stage, which requires further crossing national boundaries.
2. Economic globalization is changing the world: (1) The world productivity is increasing rapidly; (2) The international division of labor develops in breadth and depth; (3) The rapid growth of international trade has become a powerful driving force for world economic growth, while monopoly and competition in trade have intensified. (4) As the core of the world economy, international finance promotes the internationalization of production and capital.
3. Opportunities and challenges brought by economic globalization. (1) Opportunities are manifested in four aspects: First, globalization has greatly reduced the technical and policy barriers to the flow of goods, services, capital, talents, resources and other factors, and accelerated the trend of world trade liberalization. Second, globalization has prompted countries to participate in international cooperation and division of labor, and promoted the transfer of production factors and the allocation of resources in the world. Third, globalization has promoted the adjustment of the world economic structure, and the focus of global industrialization is shifting from the western hemisphere to the eastern hemisphere. Fourth, globalization has promoted global competition, promoted enterprise merger, reorganization and structural adjustment around the world, and urged enterprises to highlight their core businesses, form strategic alliances, increase investment and reform management to improve their competitiveness. (2) Challenge: First of all, the interdependence of countries' economies has increased, and the "contagiousness" of the economic crisis has increased dramatically, increasing the global economic risks. Secondly, the independence of economic sovereignty of all countries is facing an increasingly severe test. Finally, in the process of globalization, while competition creates efficiency, wealth is increasingly concentrated in a few countries or a few interest groups, which leads to a further widening of the gap between the rich and the poor on a global scale.
Financial crisis refers to the sharp, short-term and super-cycle deterioration of all or most financial indicators (such as short-term interest rates, monetary assets, securities, real estate, land (price), the number of commercial bankruptcies and the number of financial institutions) in a country or several countries and regions.
1. The financial crisis originated in America. Causes of financial crisis: The credit expansion caused by fictitious economy and the bursting of economic bubble are the main causes of financial crisis. The subprime mortgage crisis is the fuse. Sub-prime bonds are actually only $600 billion, which caused such a big financial crisis because of following the trend, that is, people's psychological expectations. Herd effect refers to the situation that investors have not formed their own expectations or obtained first-hand information in the market. Theoretically speaking, herding behavior will aggravate market fluctuation and become the key to the success of leaders' behavior. In the following situations, sesame seed cake is the leader. In the real economy, subprime mortgage is the leader.
2. From the subprime mortgage crisis to the financial crisis, here is an original case: two people sell baked wheat cakes, each selling 20 cakes a day (because the demand for baked wheat cakes is only 40), and the output value of one yuan per day is 40 yuan. Later, they discussed and bought 100(A bought it from B and B 100 bought it from A 100).
If the price of sesame cakes traded with each other is 5 yuan, the daily transaction amount is 1040 yuan. At this time, A and B will raise the market biscuits to 2 yuan. Some people heard that sesame seed cakes 1 were sold in 5 yuan, but when they saw that there was only 2 yuan in the market, they quickly bought them. -The bubble economy came into being.
Baked sesame seeds can't be cooked at once, so buy forward cakes. A, Otsuichi increased the number of baked wheat cakes (up to 100 per day), on the other hand, it sold forward baked wheat cakes, and at the same time began to issue baked wheat cakes bonds. Buyers use cash and mortgages to buy. -Financing, financial intervention.
Some people want to buy it, and they have neither cash nor collateral, so A and B issue subordinated biscuit bonds to buy insurance from insurance institutions-subprime bonds have planted seeds for the subprime mortgage crisis.
One day, I found that I couldn't eat the biscuits I bought. If it is stored in one place and moldy, I will sell it soon, even if the price is lower. The bubble burst.
This is how the financial crisis broke out. Cookie shop layoffs (as long as 40 cookies a day)-unemployment; Sesame cake bonds become waste paper-subprime mortgage crisis
Mortgage loan (collateral is worthless) can not be recovered, the liquidity crisis of the lending bank, the bankruptcy of the insurance company and so on. -Financial crisis
3. In the process from subprime mortgage crisis to financial crisis, the financial leverage of financial institutions and the issuance and circulation of financial derivatives have played an amplification role.
4. deeper level
(1) Long-term accumulation of early consumption. In the United States, early consumption has been popular for a long time, encouraging people to buy houses, cars and high-end consumer goods. In order to pursue high profits, banks issue credit cards to residents to encourage consumption in advance. Enjoy today with tomorrow's money "Let your dreams come early and make them come true." Being able to earn and spend is the pride of the times. " To put it bluntly, this kind of advanced consumption has also brought temporary prosperity for several years. However, this kind of advanced purchasing power in the future, after all, is "unable to make ends meet", with bubbles, temporary prosperity and illusory colors. Once the economy is depressed, a large number of unemployed people will not pay their debts, and consumers' ability to pay will drop sharply. American subprime debts will be highlighted in front of the world, banks will have piles of bad debts, and some investment banks will face bankruptcy.
(2) American banks bear high salaries. The American banking industry has been pampered for a long time and seems to be a "favored son of heaven." High-level leaders are well paid, with millions of annual salaries everywhere and hundreds of thousands of middle-level white-collar workers. For a long time, the banking industry has covered up the contradiction because of the huge amount of loans and rich profits. Although the salary is high every year, it can get by. Once the debtor is unable to pay his debts, a batch of bad debts will appear, forming a triangular debt. At first, the bank was in trouble, and then it suffered huge losses. So a lot of layoffs. If we seriously reflect, high salary is an excessive enjoyment of economic achievements and contains exploitation factors. Or it is a foolish act of "fishing with exhausted resources" and "killing the goose to get the egg".
(3) The United States currently lacks emerging industries. Over the years, emerging industries in the United States have often led the world trend. Such as expressway, automobile industry, aviation industry and electronic communication industry. For example, the software and hardware of computers and mobile phones are far ahead. When many countries were still in infancy, the United States had formed an industry on a large scale. However, in the past ten years, these leading industries in the United States have been hovering, while many countries in the world are catching up quickly. The electronic industries such as computers and mobile phones have developed rapidly, and the advantages of the United States have weakened relatively, or gradually lost their advantages.
Rome was not built in a day. The financial crisis in the United States is a long-term accumulation, which inspires people to learn from it. We should proceed from our own reality and do a good job in China. This is also a good way to resolve the impact of the US financial crisis on China.
5. The financial crisis has spread all over the world, affecting China. Part of the country's foreign exchange reserves are lost, making it difficult to export. Economic growth slows down, unemployment increases, people's income declines, consumption decreases, and the market is depressed. If it is serious, it will cause political instability. Compared with European countries (such as Detroit Motor City), the financial crisis has little impact on China, because China's economy is separated from the international economy to some extent. China's RMB is strictly managed under the capital account, and the impact of international hot money is not great. Now, with more than 70 banks in the United States tending to close down, China's financial system is running well and its economy is growing at a certain speed. At the same time, the state is also taking measures such as expanding finance, reducing the deposit reserve ratio and stimulating domestic demand of 4 trillion yuan. Now, the RMB exchange rate has been lowered. If all macroeconomic measures are effectively implemented, China needs about 1 year.