International financial market: gradually adjusting in repeated oscillation
In the international foreign exchange market, the exchange rates of USD, EUR and JPY fluctuate. Due to the weak economic recovery in the United States, the economic foundation was eroded, the financial integrity crisis of enterprises broke out, the stock market plummeted, the trade deficit rose sharply, and the spread between the United States, Europe and Japan reversed, which greatly reduced the attractiveness of the United States to attract foreign investment. In 2002, the strong dollar, which had been maintained for seven years, began to decline, and the sustainability of the strong dollar policy was constantly questioned. At the same time, the euro zone economy showed a recovery trend, and the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar began to rise sharply after a period of depreciation. However, in view of the uncertainty of the economic recovery in the euro zone, the foundation for the continued strength of the euro is not solid. The yen exchange rate is also in a state of fluctuation, because the performance of Japan's economic recovery is fluctuating. At the end of 2002, the yen exchange rate rose sharply and then fell back. Generally speaking, on the one hand, the appreciation of the yen and the euro is not due to the substantial improvement in the economic growth prospects of these two regions, but more due to the pessimistic news from the United States. Therefore, the US dollar exchange rate will still face many uncertainties. The fluctuation of exchange rate is bound to aggravate the turmoil of the world economy and may even affect the pace of world economic recovery. On the other hand, the decline in the exchange rate of the US dollar indicates that the exchange rate relationship among the three major international currencies, the US dollar, the euro and the Japanese yen, has begun to undergo structural adjustment. This structural change may not only lead to the reorganization of international investment and changes in international capital flows, but also lead to structural changes in the international monetary system.
In the international securities market, on the one hand, the global stock market, represented by the three major stock indexes in the United States, continued to decline, and the number of public offerings and financing in the initial public offering (IPO) market fell sharply, leading to a downturn in trading. On the other hand, the status of the international stock market has declined, and the importance of the bond market has risen relatively. Under the background of financial globalization, the stock markets of the United States, Europe and Japan have risen and fallen simultaneously. The plunge in the US stock market led to the decline of major global stock markets. With the sharp decline of global stock market since 2000, foreign stock investment in developed countries has fallen sharply. Accordingly, the development of international bond markets began to show vitality, and both short-term and long-term bond issuance increased rapidly.
International Capital Flows: Changing Structure in Continuous Fluctuation
In the context of the global economic downturn, the volatility of international capital flows has increased and market activities have become more cautious. At the same time, the structural adjustment of international capital flows is more obvious.
From the perspective of investment methods, cross-border mergers and acquisitions have seen a major turning point of prosperity and decline. At the end of last century, cross-border M&A gradually developed into the leading force of international capital flow. In 2000, cross-border M&A transactions began to decline. 200 1 In the first quarter, the global M&A transaction volume suddenly dropped by 54%, which was the fourth consecutive quarter of decline. In the third quarter of 2002, the total amount of mergers and acquisitions announced by enterprises was $255.4 billion, which was 23% lower than the $332.7 billion in the second quarter. The rise and fall of cross-border M&A is closely related to the changes in the global economic situation, and also reflects its own development characteristics. The difficult business integration after cross-border M&A, as well as cultural conflicts and complex contradictions between different countries and institutions, make it difficult for cross-border M&A to achieve the expected synergy, speed advantage and ownership advantage, and failure cases occur frequently. There are indications that cross-border mergers and acquisitions have entered an adjustment period.
From the perspective of investors, private capital has taken the place of official capital and occupied the main position of capital flow. From 65438 to 0996, the total official development assistance reached its peak, reaching 77.7 billion dollars. From 65438 to 0997, the amount of official development assistance began to decline, and private capital gradually occupied an absolute dominant position in global capital flows. In the wave of privatization of global capital flows, the most striking phenomenon is the sharp rise in the status of institutional investors. In industrialized countries, the total assets held and managed by these institutions have exceeded the scale of GDP. Institutional investors have become active participants in global financial markets. In some countries, the proportion of foreign assets in the total assets of institutional investors is very high. For example, in Asian emerging market economies, the share held by institutional investors accounts for nearly 30% of their capitalized value, while in Latin American countries, the share exceeds 60%.
From the perspective of investment flow, the regional structure of international capital flow has undergone major adjustments. From 1999 to 200 1, it is the mainstream for international capital to flow from the euro zone to the United States. From 200 1, the trend of international capital concentration in the United States began to reverse. From 200 1 to the first six months of 2002, the net inflow of direct investment and stock investment from the euro zone to the United States continued to decrease, and bond investment changed from the previous net inflow to the euro zone. Against the background of financial market uncertainty and rising risks, global funds have a trend of "fleeing to high quality", that is, chasing emerging markets with good economic growth momentum, among which Asia is still receiving much attention. Many investment rating agencies have upgraded the bond ratings of Asian countries because of their optimism about Asian economic growth. In addition, the main issuers of Asian bonds are governments, government-related institutions and enterprises with high credit quality, and the demand for bonds in Asia is rising. On the contrary, the demand for bonds in Latin America has fallen sharply, and investors are still pessimistic about the economic situation in Latin America.
International financial supervision: establishing a new framework on a global scale
Since11990s, the East Asian financial crisis, the Mexican financial crisis, the Argentine financial crisis and the Bahrain Bank incident have made the international community reach a consensus on reforming the international financial supervision system and building a new and stable international financial framework, and the international banking supervision cooperation at all levels in the global, regional and bilateral scope has made unprecedented development.
The intensity of international financial supervision has been significantly strengthened in the following four aspects: first, the risk management and internal control of financial institutions; Second, information disclosure and market constraints of financial institutions; Third, indirect supervision of highly leveraged institutions such as hedge funds; Fourth, the joint coordination and supervision of financial groups. The development direction of international financial supervision is: first, financial supervision will pay more attention to the role of market constraints; Second, the regulatory authorities will pay more attention to the cost and efficiency of supervision and emphasize the flexibility of supervision; Third, financial supervision will pay more attention to the organic combination of supervision objectives and internal incentive mechanisms of financial institutions; Fourth, put the supervision department under public supervision.
At present, international regulatory cooperation is mainly aimed at the international banking industry, and its basic framework is basically mature, but the supervision of transnational securities trading and financial derivatives trading needs to be strengthened urgently. Therefore, the future international cooperation in financial supervision will mainly include various international economic organizations and national regulatory authorities, covering all financial fields and going deep into all aspects of financial activities.
International banking: welcome new business opportunities in integration
Since 1990, fierce international competition has promoted the mutual merger of banks in various countries. First, the United States, then Europe, and then Asia, the banking industry set off a large-scale and wide-ranging M&A climax. Mergers and acquisitions in banking industry have pushed the international concentration of bank capital to a new height again, and multinational banks have become market operators and financial giants. The global financial business of multinational banks has effectively promoted the diversification and globalization of banking business.
The development of network economy has promoted great changes in the banking industry, and the operation of e-commerce has brought great business opportunities to the financial services industry. At the end of 1999, the global e-commerce market reached11billion dollars, an increase of 120% compared with 1998, and will rise to 1.3 trillion dollars in 2003. The low investment cost and transaction cost of the Internet can enable online banks and securities firms to provide more competitive products, which leads to the rapid rise of new competitors such as simple online banks and securities firms, and constitutes a strong competition for traditional banks and securities firms. The development of Internet has further broken the barriers of transnational operation of financial institutions, and made new competitors expand rapidly around the world. Traditional banks must also increase investment in new technologies to improve their competitiveness. It is an inevitable trend for the banking industry to develop online banking, and securities brokerage service is becoming a new hot spot.
Financial Globalization: Advancing in Opening and Development
Financial globalization is the most vivid and vivid part in the process of economic globalization. The development of real economy, such as international trade, direct investment, scientific and technological progress and transnational corporations, the deepening of financial innovation, and the policies of financial deregulation and financial liberalization in various countries around the world have finally integrated the global financial industry, making today's international financial activities a process of selecting investors and fundraisers in accordance with the same rules of the game and using the same financial tools on a global scale.
Financial globalization is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, financial globalization has promoted the rational allocation of capital on a global scale and promoted the growth of regional economy and even the world economy; On the other hand, financial globalization has greatly increased the instability of the international financial system and challenged the macro-control ability of various countries. In the absence of appropriate policy adjustments, the free flow of huge international capital often poses a threat to the macroeconomic stability of relevant countries. For developing countries with fragile financial system, imperfect financial laws and regulations and lagging financial supervision, it is very necessary to determine the appropriate speed and process of capital market opening, and it is an urgent project to strengthen the construction of financial field.