Feature 1: The trend of multi-polarization in the world is developing in twists and turns, and the relations between major powers are generally stable.
For a long time to come, the basic situation of the world will be that a superpower coexists with various forces.
After the cold war, the United States became the only superpower. According to the estimation of the International Monetary Fund, the global GDP in 2004 was 40 1, 1 billion dollars. Among them, the United States reached 1 1.75 trillion US dollars, accounting for nearly 30%, followed by Japan, about 4.62 trillion US dollars; This was followed by German $2.67 trillion, British $ 2. 1.3 trillion, French 1.99 trillion, China and Italy 1.65 trillion, Canadian $0.97 trillion, Spanish $0.96 trillion and Korean $0.66 trillion.
The United States has the largest military expenditure, reaching $4162 billion in fiscal year 2005, exceeding the sum of other big countries. The United States also has strong scientific and technological strength, with an annual R&D expenditure of nearly $300 billion, accounting for 1/3 of the world total. Among the "Global 1000 Top Enterprises" in 2003, there were 487 in the United States, accounting for almost half.
After the "9. 1 1" incident, the United States adjusted its security and diplomatic strategy, taking counter-terrorism, non-proliferation and ensuring local security as its primary policy objectives. However, most countries disapprove of American unilateralism and "preemptive strike", and American allies also have different opinions.
In Iraq alone, the United States paid a high price. According to American official statistics, from the outbreak of the Iraq war to the end of major combat operations on May 1 2003, a total of 139 American soldiers died. But then the death toll doubled. As of March 4, 2005, 65,438+0,502 American soldiers were killed and more than 65,438+0,000 were injured. The US military expenditure in Iraq is also very large. It is estimated that the total amount will exceed $200 billion this year, which is equivalent to more than $2,000 paid by every American family for the Iraq war.
Other forces in the world are also growing. Russia's economic growth has accelerated for six consecutive years, and its national strength has gradually recovered. In 2004, the economy grew by 7%. After re-election in 2004, President Putin proposed to double the GDP by 20 10.
The process of EU integration is accelerating. Last May, 1 expanded to 25 countries, and the total economic output reached124.8 billion US dollars, surpassing the United States. The political alliance has entered a new stage, with the signing of the European Constitutional Treaty in June 65438+ 10 last year. The EU is still carrying out national defense construction, with a growing sense of independence and international influence.
Japan is not only the second largest economy in the world, but also the largest creditor country and the largest foreign exchange reserve country. Gradually out of the shadow of long-term economic stagnation, is trying to become a political power.
India, Brazil, South Africa and other large developing countries have a strong momentum of development, and the vast number of developing countries have joined forces to enhance their comprehensive strength.
More and more countries advocate democratization of international relations, multilateralism and diversification of development models. There are both cooperation and competition among big countries, both contests and compromises, both mutual reference and mutual containment, and the trend of world multipolarization is more clear. This multipolarization is different from the hegemony of great powers in history. After two world wars and a cold war in the last century, today's multi-polarization trend reflects the desire of people of all countries to safeguard world peace, promote common development and progress of the times.
The trend of multipolarization and the overall stability of relations between major powers have objectively provided a more favorable international security environment for the development of China.
Feature 2: Economic globalization and regional cooperation have developed in depth, and the interdependence among countries has deepened.
Many brands of cars in many countries are running on the streets of our country, and the internet has entered thousands of households in urban and rural areas of our country. At the same time, supermarkets in Asia, Africa, Latin America, the United States, Europe and many other countries have products. It is estimated that every American has a dress made in China, and many computers, color TVs and even Christmas trees used by Americans are made in China. Economic globalization is happening around us. The trend of economic globalization is the objective requirement and inevitable result of the development of social productive forces.
At present, high-tech represented by information technology, biotechnology, aerospace technology, new energy technology and new material technology have made continuous breakthroughs, which have effectively promoted the development of economic globalization. Developed countries transfer traditional industries abroad and concentrate on developing new economy. Developing countries with good conditions are also participating in the process of economic globalization, accelerating their own industrial upgrading, technological progress, economic development and institutional innovation. In this way, the world economy is gradually merging into an inseparable whole through the global flow and optimal allocation of production factors such as capital, technology and labor. This provides more opportunities and space for the development of all countries.
Economic globalization also promotes the development of regional integration. Regional integration is an important means for countries to cope with international competition and improve their status under the situation of economic globalization. By the end of June 5438+ 10, 2005, there were more than 160 valid bilateral and multilateral trade agreements filed with the World Trade Organization. The European Union, the North American Free Trade Area and East Asian cooperation centered on ASEAN-China and ASEAN-China, Japan and South Korea are particularly noticeable. This trend is conducive to promoting global economic diversification, development model diversification and world multipolarization.
As the largest developing country, after more than 20 years of reform and opening up, our comprehensive national strength has been enhanced and we have formed our own advantages in many aspects. Properly grasped, we can take advantage of the international and domestic markets and resources to participate in international cooperation and competition in a wider scope, in a wider field and at a higher level, promote the adjustment and upgrading of industrial structure, implement Scientific Outlook on Development and promote comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable development.
Economic globalization has also increased risks and challenges. At present, the international economic order is still unreasonable on the whole, which is manifested in unbalanced development and widening gap between North and South. Developed countries have advantages in capital, technology, talents and information. , in a dominant position in the international market, and to a considerable extent, holds the right to formulate international economic rules, thus becoming the main beneficiary of economic globalization. Developing countries are at a disadvantage, facing enormous competitive pressure, and many countries are in danger of being marginalized. China is the fastest growing developing country, but it is also often the victim of the unreasonable international order. We must be prepared for danger in times of peace.
Feature 3: Traditional and non-traditional security threats are intertwined, and unstable and uncertain factors increase.
The world is generally peaceful and stable, and the surrounding environment of China is in a good period in history. But the world is not peaceful, and traditional security threats still exist. Hegemonism and power politics have new manifestations, local conflicts caused by ethnic and religious contradictions and border territorial disputes have come and gone, and regional hot issues are complicated. Palestinian-Israeli conflict, Iraq issue, India-Pakistan conflict, Korean Peninsula nuclear issue, Iranian nuclear issue, etc. It seems that it will not be solved in a short time. Non-traditional security threats are on the rise. Among them, the threat of terrorism is particularly prominent. Last year, there were nearly 1700 terrorist incidents in the world, especially the "3. 1 1" explosion in Spain and the hostage incident in Beslan, Russia, which shocked the world. Counter-terrorism will be a long-term task.
The international community is also facing severe challenges such as weapons proliferation, environmental degradation, drug smuggling, illegal immigration, transnational crimes and serious infectious diseases. Energy security, resource security, financial security, food security, information security and transport corridor security are also issues of common concern to all countries.
Feature 4: the diversity and pluralism of the world, different civilizations, nationalities, religions and development models * * * develop in competition and in exchanges.
More than 6 billion people in the world live in more than 200 countries and regions, belonging to 2,500 ethnic groups and speaking more than 6,000 languages. There are many religions and many atheists. Different countries and regions have different social systems and values. This diversity is formed in a long history and is the driving force to promote the progress of world civilization. Confucius, an ancient thinker in China, said, "Everything coexists without harming each other, and Tao goes hand in hand without contradicting each other". Therefore, human civilization is rich and colorful.
More and more countries realize the necessity of dialogue among civilizations, and various forms of "dialogue among civilizations" have promoted mutual understanding and friendly cooperation among countries. Different development models should transcend the differences between ideology and social system, balance each other in competition and learn from each other in communication.
Individual countries do the opposite and try their best to impose their own political systems and values on others. This is a violation of human rights in other countries, runs counter to the trend of democracy, and also leads to the intensification of contradictions in some parts of the world.
The peaceful development of China has become an important factor affecting the international situation, and China's international status has steadily improved.
Since the reform and opening-up 26 years ago, China's economy has developed continuously and rapidly, with an average annual growth rate of over 9%. In 2004, China's GDP was more than ten times that of 1978, and its per capita GDP exceeded 1000 USD. Health care conditions and living standards have been continuously improved. According to the statistics of the United Nations Development Programme, the average life expectancy of China people has increased from 39 years in 1949 to over 70 years now.
The development of China itself is a contribution to world peace and development. Since 1980s, China has solved the problem of food and clothing for more than 200 million poor people, which is a feat in human history. World Bank President Wolfensohn said that China has made the greatest contribution to global poverty reduction in the past 20 years and set an example for global poverty reduction.
Over the past 26 years, the average annual economic growth rate of China has been about 6 percentage points faster than that of the world, which has significantly enhanced the pull of world economic growth. 1980 by 2000, China's contribution rate to the growth of world trade and services ranked third in the world, next only to the United States and Japan. In 2003, China's contribution to global economic growth reached 18.2%. According to public opinion, China has become the engine of regional and world economy. The international attention to the RMB exchange rate in the past two years shows that our influence on the world economy is growing.
The development of China has brought and will continue to bring broad market and cooperation space to the region and the world. In 2004, China's total import volume reached US$ 56 13 billion, making it the third largest importer in the world. 20 10 may exceed 1 trillion dollars. At least in the next decade, China's market capacity will continue to develop rapidly. The world is optimistic about China's development potential and huge market, and strengthening cooperation with China has become the common policy orientation of all countries. In 2004, foreign direct investment in China exceeded $60 billion. More than 450 of the world's top 500 multinational companies have invested in China. All the world's top auto giants have entered China, and more than 90 global 100 information industries have entered China. There are more than 600 foreign R&D centers and more than 30 regional headquarters of multinational corporations in China.
1997 during the Asian financial crisis, the China government was anxious for its neighbors, and promised that the RMB would not depreciate. It provided more than 4 billion US dollars of assistance to the countries concerned through multilateral and bilateral channels, making an important contribution to the financial stability of the region and even the world. Beijing's successful bid for the 2008 Olympic Games and Shanghai's successful bid for the 20 10 World Expo all show that we have many friends who hope that China will play a greater role in the world.
There is also an unprecedented phenomenon-the upsurge of learning Chinese has begun to appear around the world. /kloc-2,300 universities in more than 0/00 countries have offered Chinese courses, and about 30 million foreigners are learning Chinese. The Chinese proficiency test has been set up in 87 cities in 35 countries. In the United States, Chinese has become the second largest foreign language after Spanish. In Canada, except for English and French, most people use Chinese. Chinese is the largest foreign language in Australia.
Conclusion: It can be seen that the world is in a period of profound change and transition to multipolarization. All countries should accelerate the development of comprehensive national strength and strive to occupy a favorable position in the future international order. We are faced with rare opportunities, complex international environment and fierce competition. Opportunities include challenges, and there may be opportunities in the challenges. At present and in the future, the fundamental task and goal of China's diplomatic work is to safeguard the important period of strategic opportunities for China's development, strive for a peaceful and stable international environment, a good-neighborly surrounding environment, an equal and mutually beneficial cooperation environment and an objective and friendly public opinion environment, and serve the building of a well-off society in an all-round way.
Security situation around China
As a country with the largest number of neighboring countries, China has the most geographical contradictions and the most complex strategic subjects, and there are huge problems in territorial and territorial rights and interests with neighboring countries. The main factors affecting the security around China are: terrorism, male chauvinism, ethnic separatist forces, territorial disputes, hegemonism and power politics. The security problems between China and neighboring countries are like a "V-shaped hot spot line" with radial characteristics, and there are unsafe factors in all directions. The left end of the V-shaped line is a northwest-southeast continental line, which has problems such as the five Central Asian countries, the conflict in Afghanistan, the conflict between India and Pakistan, and the dispute between India and China. At the right end of the V-shaped line is a northeast-southwest ocean line, including the dispute between Japan and Russia over the four northern islands, the dispute between Japan and South Korea over Zhudao (Dokdo), the dispute over the Korean Peninsula, the dispute between China and North Korea over the continental shelf of the Yellow Sea, the dispute between China and Japan over the continental shelf of the East China Sea and Diaoyu Islands, and the dispute over the South China Sea.
(A) the security of the five Central Asian countries and China.
After the independence of the five Central Asian countries, due to the prominent geostrategic position and rich natural resources in Central Asia, the competition among the forces of all countries in the world in Central Asia has made the political situation in Central Asia more unstable on the one hand, and complicated the security environment in the northwest frontier of China on the other. After the war, the United States, which pursued hegemonic policy, established pro-American regime in Afghanistan and established military bases in individual countries in Central Asia, which not only opened up a strategic channel for expanding NATO and strengthening NATO and the US-Japan security alliance, but also took Central Asia as a geostrategic fulcrum and NATO and the US-Japan security alliance as its two wings to curb Russian revival, prevent Islamic fundamentalism from expanding and curb China's rise.
Central Asian countries are also rich in natural resources, such as oil and natural gas. As a neighbor of China, China's economic interests in Central Asia are obvious. With the economic development of China, the consumption of natural resources will increase day by day. In the 20th century, China strengthened its economic cooperation with Central Asian countries, expanded its influence in Central Asian countries, and indirectly harmed Russian traditional interests. The competition between the United States and Russia in Central Asia has intensified in order to gain economic benefits.
(2) Security of Russia and China
Russia, which straddles Eurasia, has been China's largest neighbor in the north and one of the most important factors affecting China's national security from the period of tsarist Russia to the present. Geopolitically, there is a long border between China and Russia. From the perspective of comprehensive national strength, Russia is still a world power and may become a "world superpower" again. Will the foreign strategy pursued by the revived Russia be as aggressive as before? As a Russian neighbor, China is particularly concerned. Russian military technology is strong, and liquefied petroleum gas resources are abundant, which is a force that China can rely on to realize national defense modernization. Although Russia is in the stage of sustained economic recovery, its energy strategy towards China has revealed the future strategic operation information of Russia.
A strong neighbor is like a double-edged sword. If it is friendly to you and can bring you benefits, it will bring double benefits because it is your neighbor. The stronger this neighbor is, the greater the benefits you may get, and vice versa. Therefore, after the revival, Russia's strong influence on China's security is inevitable for China's neighboring countries.
(3) Korean Peninsula and China's security.
The Korean Peninsula issue is the biggest cold war legacy in East Asia. After entering the 2 1 century, the U.S. government took a tough stance against North Korea, which eventually led to the outbreak of the second nuclear power plant in North Korea and the situation on the peninsula tightened again. At the beginning of the new era, the situation on the peninsula will still present a complicated and changeable development trend. On the one hand, internal and external factors that promote reconciliation, promote negotiations and restrict war continue to exist and develop. In particular, the continuation of the Six-Party Talks provides an important opportunity for the peaceful settlement of disputes, and the peace process on the peninsula is likely to advance in twists and turns. On the other hand, the contradiction between North Korea and the United States and the DPRK is deeply rooted, and the national interests and policy objectives are quite different. There are still great unstable and uncertain factors in the development of the situation on the peninsula. The possibility of armed confrontation and military conflict cannot be ruled out. The Korean Peninsula is a strategic buffer zone for China's northeast security. The tension on the peninsula will undermine the peace and stability of the region and also affect the modernization process of China. Without the security of the peninsula, there will be no "peaceful rise" of China.
(D) US-Japan military alliance and Japan's foreign military expansion
Japan is a powerful maritime neighbor of China, the second largest economic power in the world after the United States, a country that invaded China and its rulers have not reflected yet, and a country with great potential to master nuclear weapons. After World War II, the United States and Japan formed a military alliance. In the middle and late 1990s, the Japan-US security alliance was redefined after the Cold War. Its scope of application extends from Japan and its surrounding hundreds of nautical miles to the whole Asia-Pacific region; The content of cooperation has expanded from "Japan is attacked by force" to "when something happens around Japan", and the defensive posture has changed from "threat to storage" to "regional security"; The main targets of prevention have changed from the Soviet Union to North Korea and China. Japan-US security, the repositioning of alliance and the joint development of theater missile defense system by Japan and the United States will lead to a serious imbalance of strategic forces in the Asia-Pacific region, especially in Northeast Asia, and become an important unstable factor affecting future regional security. 2 1 century, Japan decided to build an "island protection force" to cope with "China's naval vessel activities". In 2004, China was identified as a "security threat" and its security strategy changed from "defensive" to "offensive".
(5) South Asian Peninsula security and China.
In the Indian Peninsula of South Asia, India calls itself an elephant. 2 1 century India's macro goal is to control South Asia and the Indian Ocean. Therefore, India vigorously develops its own economy, and its military strategy in the 2nd/Kloc-0th century is to develop powerful military forces, deter Pakistan, control weak neighbors, contain China and prevent foreign forces from infiltrating into South Asia, so as to control the Indian Ocean and become a world-class power. Indian Ocean is the only way for China to connect the Middle East, Persian Gulf, Mediterranean Sea and East Africa. Indian control of the Indian Ocean is equivalent to control of China's sea passage to these areas, threatening China's oil security. The conflict between India and Pakistan is an important hidden danger in the security environment around China. The India-Pakistan conflict is a comprehensive and long-term contradiction and dispute, including territorial, ethnic, religious and military struggles. In recent years, the nuclear and conventional arms race between the two countries has intensified, and the Kashmir conflict has been tense and intermittent. The conflict between India and Pakistan is of great significance to the security situation in South Asia and the border security in western China.
(6) China's maritime rights and interests dispute in the South China Sea.
2 1 century is the century of ocean, and China is bound to develop in the direction of marine economy, and China's maritime rights and interests are becoming more and more important. Since modern times, there have been more and more conflicts and disputes between China and Southeast Asian countries. However, the illegal occupation of islands in the South China Sea and the exploitation of oil and gas resources by Indonesian and Malaysian countries have seriously damaged China's territorial sovereignty and economic rights and interests, which is increasingly detrimental to the development of China. The South China Sea dispute between China and Southeast Asian countries is not only an island dispute, but also a maritime delimitation and resource development dispute. In addition to the dispute over the sovereignty of Diaoyu Islands between China and Japan, there is also the delimitation of the exclusive economic zone and continental shelf in the East China Sea. China also has differences with North Korea and South Korea on the demarcation of the East China Sea. These issues are disputes over resources and geographical advantages, and the loss of these maritime rights and interests will endanger China's national security.
(VII) The most important external factor affecting China's security environment-the United States.
For half a century, the threat of the United States to the security around China has been fundamental, serious and long-term. After the Cold War, the United States, as the only superpower in the world, is the most powerful country that poses a threat to China's security. In Eurasia, geostrategy conflicts with China's security interests, and the United States regards China as a regional power capable of challenging its global interests. The existence of the United States in East Asia and the deepening of the strategic structural contradictions between China and the United States show that the United States will not change its policy of strategically guarding against China and putting pressure on China. In East Asia, the United States relies on the US-Japan military alliance to jointly contain China. In West Asia, the United States infiltrated into West Asia in the name of anti-terrorism, strengthened military cooperation with Southeast Asian countries in Southeast Asia, and relied on years of tacit understanding with Taiwan Province Province to play the "Taiwan Province Province" card, which restricted the rise of China. Comprehensive relations with Mongolia, the United States and Canada in North Asia.
International measures to strengthen China's security
Since the beginning of the new century, the international situation is complicated and changeable, and China's economic development is in a critical period. We are faced with opportunities and challenges, but peace and development are still the themes of the times. Therefore, we should seize the opportunity of development and strive to create an international security environment, which plays an important role in enhancing China's national strength and expanding national interests.
(1) Adhere to the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence and actively carry out good-neighborly diplomacy.
China has always advocated that all countries, big or small, strong or weak, rich or poor, have sovereign equality, respect each other's social systems and development paths, and oppose imposing their will on other countries. In order to maintain regional peace, equality and stability, we should properly handle territorial and territorial disputes with neighboring countries and issues left over from history, and put aside issues that cannot be solved temporarily until the dust of historical events settles, so as to prevent hegemonism from profiting from it. Carry out good-neighborly diplomacy with the Five Principles of Peace.
(2) Actively carry out summit diplomacy.
With the rapid increase of China's comprehensive national strength, some neighboring countries are suspicious and wary of China, while the United States and Japan publish the so-called "China threat theory" in an attempt to undermine China's relations with neighboring countries. Therefore, in order to eliminate the wariness and doubts of neighboring countries, we should actively carry out diplomatic tasks at the summit level to accurately understand the policy intentions and policies of both sides and strengthen the relations between countries. Summit diplomacy plays an important role in enhancing trust and consolidating relations between China and its neighbors.
(3) Actively carry out economic cooperation and assistance.
China's neighboring countries and regions are rich in natural resources and have a long history of economic exchanges. Therefore, economic exchanges between the two sides can promote a win-win situation. In economic diplomacy, we adhere to the principle of "equality and mutual benefit, complementary advantages, sincere cooperation and common development". 2/kloc-in the 20th century, China established a free trade area with ASEAN, organized and strengthened regional economic cooperation in Shanghai, and started cooperation with India and India. Promote economic diplomacy, thus promoting national security. For neighboring developing countries, it is necessary for developing countries to provide necessary assistance within their capacity and increase the training of all kinds of talents in developing countries, so as to increase China's role and influence in the international arena and strive for and master the leading role in international security actions.
(4) Conducting international military exchanges to improve the military's ability to safeguard national security.
In the contemporary international society, maintaining a country's security requires international cooperation. Under the complicated international situation in East Asia, China can only maintain regional stability through comprehensive and extensive military cooperation. Efforts will be made to conduct bilateral and multilateral consultations and dialogues on security and inferiority prevention strategies with neighboring countries to enhance mutual understanding and trust. In particular, strengthen international cooperation with neighboring countries in counter-terrorism and participate in international cooperation in non-traditional security fields such as maritime search and rescue, combating piracy and drug trafficking. Actively participate in international maintenance and operation. In addition, China has continuously expanded various forms of foreign military exchanges, promoted international military cooperation such as international arms control and disarmament process and obligations, made its own contribution to promoting world peace and stability, and created a safe international environment for its own development.
(5) Actively use regional international organizations to establish economic integration and multilateral security consultation mechanisms.
With international organizations playing an increasingly important role in the world political arena, China participated in the establishment of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization on 1996 in order to actively participate in regional dialogue and cooperation and economic development in its surrounding areas, and actively became a dialogue country of ASEAN. As one of the founding countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, China has provided China and its neighboring countries with a new security concept of mutual trust, mutual benefit, equality, consultation, respect for diverse civilizations, mutual trust, disarmament and cooperative security, which has enriched the state relations initiated by China and Russia with partnership as the core, and is of great practical significance for promoting the establishment of a just and rational new international political order. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization has also made contributions to combating terrorism, separatist forces, international crimes and military mutual trust, but it should also strengthen cooperation in this area, but it should also expand its functions in economic cooperation and promote the consolidation of the foundation of multilateral mechanisms. We should also make use of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization to strive for a neutral "8+ 1" mechanism with India and Pakistan as Shanghai organizations and "associate members" and establish a multilateral mechanism framework with neighboring regions. In Southeast Asia, making full use of ASEAN to establish ASEAN Free Trade Area has laid a good foundation for economic cooperation between the two sides. 200 1 1654381October 6, at the fifth China-ASEAN leaders' meeting, the two sides decided to establish a China-ASEAN free trade area in the future 10, which marked a substantial step for China on the road of regional integration. The two sides have more and more in common. China expounded China's security concept and policy proposition in new forms many times at the ASEAN Regional Forum Foreign Ministers' Meeting, and the two sides reached some agreement on this. Therefore, China has established a regional security mechanism by using regional international organizations to promote the peace and security process in the surrounding areas.
Four. conclusion
Under the background of peace and development, China can handle its foreign affairs well only by improving its comprehensive national strength. Facing the complicated international situation, China needs to formulate correct strategies to improve China's comprehensive national strength and strong national defense force. Scientific and technological innovation, combined with the unfavorable factors that weaken all international joint forces and the surrounding environment, actively participates in multilateral and bilateral mechanisms in Asia in the process of getting along with neighboring countries, so as to use its strong comprehensive national strength, expand its influence, give play to the role of a regional power, and try its best to realize the rise of China.