On August 14, the second phase of China Electric Vehicle Committee 100 Focus Observation Room was launched. Focusing on the topic of "the core value and competitiveness of smart cars", guests such as Dai Yifan, director of the Intelligent Networking Center of Tsinghua University Suqi Research Institute, Xu Daquan, executive vice president of Bosch China, Xu Junhai, director of GAC New Energy Technology Center, Xing Hui, deputy general manager of Tencent Chelian products, He Xiongsong, executive general manager of Chen Tao Capital, and Wu Dexin, director of automotive heart content, started discussions.
Topic 1) Driving forces of Tesla's soaring contrarian sales and valuation: definition of innovation, intelligence, general layout of energy and travel, brand power and time barriers.
Dai Yifan: An electric car is just a carrier. Tesla sells well or has a high valuation because it is intelligent, networked and self-driving. The technical route is bold and radical. The supplier system of many things can't keep up with Tesla's footsteps, so I make my own chips, algorithms and many things. Coupled with the value of its own brand, it is not only reflected in the automotive field, but also in other fields such as Musk and Rockets. Generally speaking, the brand value is very high. The above points have caused the special phenomenon that Tesla is popular with everyone now.
Xu Daquan: It's just that the valuation of building and selling cars should not exceed Volkswagen's $70 billion. Where does the other 200 billion come from? Innovation, brand effect, the impact on the whole industry, worth 654.38+000 billion. Another 654.38+00 billion, from Elon? The added value of musk.
Tesla does have its own uniqueness. First, it has created a new era of electric vehicles. There are so many new forces making cars in China, all of which are influenced by Tesla. The second is innovative thinking. When introducing new technologies, the company's ideas and internal processes are completely different from those of traditional OEMs. The third is the software-defined car, and Tesla is also a pioneer in this field. Fourth, Musk's personal charm and firm investment in the future have brought great confidence to investors.
Xu Junhai: The stock market is looking to the future. Tesla is not only making electric cars, but also storing energy. His goal is not to sell tens of thousands of cars. In fact, in the next bigger game, the goal is to subvert the entire energy industry. In addition, he also does autonomous driving and makes layout for future travel. From the aspects of energy and travel, it is not difficult to see why the stock market is enthusiastic about it and has great potential for future development.
Xing Hui: Tesla has a strong influence on users' brand awareness and what kind of product strength technology products should have. In this case, how traditional car companies accelerate innovation will at least give users an inherent impression of the brand. Tesla's judgment on future product trends and users' purchasing power is very strong, and sales volume is taken for granted.
He Xiongsong: From a higher dimension, the core of Tesla's valuation is the victory of the route. Its higher market value means that everyone is more and more recognized for electric vehicles. Tesla is the earliest and most determined company in the electric vehicle industry. At present, it has accumulated great advantages in the supply chain and technical reserve of the core three-power system and intelligent driving system. These traditional car companies can do it, but it takes time, which is Tesla's barrier.
Topic 2) Traditional car companies face many challenges in the process of intelligent transformation.
Xu Daquan: After hundreds of years of tempering, traditional enterprises have their inherent advantages in the details, technology, quality control and safety of making cars, which is both an advantage and a disadvantage. This weakness is mainly manifested in how to quickly enter the market when a new technology comes, and the internal system, decision-making process and new car development process of traditional cars are all restricted.
Talking about Tesla can't avoid their changes to the business model. The super factory operation mode, the construction of charging piles to provide charging services, direct stores and online marketing are all places where traditional OEMs must change their concepts and catch up at the same time.
Have data, Tesla from Model? Since the launch of S, all vehicle data have been collected, and users' usage habits have been analyzed. Traditional OEMs are not good at doing these things, and now the situation forces them to do them. From the point of view of traditional OEMs, including Tier 1 traditional manufacturing enterprises, it is very important to introduce new ideas and change the inherent traditional decision-making within the company, as well as the processes of quality, technology and delivery.
Today, everyone is catching up with Tesla, but from a technical point of view, it is possible for traditional automobile factories to catch up with Tesla or even surpass Tesla in technology.
Xu Junhai: Actually, Tesla is the pioneer of EV+ICV. Traditional car companies such as Volkswagen and Toyota feel that Tesla is ahead of them in the following aspects. One is the electronic and electrical architecture. Traditional car companies still adopt distributed architecture, so it is very difficult to update the software iteratively. Tesla has established a new architecture, which is very beneficial to later software-defined cars.
But Tesla's current architecture is not the ideal ultimate architecture, and the ultimate architecture should be central computing+regional control. Tesla is currently in a state between domain control and central computing, and everyone has not reached the ultimate architecture and is at the same starting line.
On the other hand, whether it is autonomous driving or network connection, it is necessary to form a data closed loop and constantly update the iteration. Tesla is very strong in autonomous driving and has formed a data closed loop. However, it is not very advanced in terms of network connection and intelligent cockpit, and China car companies can quickly surpass it.
Xing Hui: Tesla is ahead of the electric intelligent route because it knows what it wants, what resources it has at each stage and what it can do. There are no absolute barriers, only time barriers. Today, we are still very optimistic about the potential of domestic car companies in this regard.
He Xiongsong: Electric vehicle is a new product system, which has different requirements for talents, organizational structure and supply chain, and needs deep transformation of enterprise genes. The advantages of traditional car companies in the past have turned into resistance, and it is difficult to jump out.
Traditional car companies want to make a breakthrough, and external cooperation and investment in entrepreneurial teams may be a good way. China's startups are very dynamic, and investment institutions are willing to invest in electrification and intelligent driving, among which excellent startups and teams will surely emerge. If traditional automobile companies can establish R&D and innovation links with external teams, they may be more efficient and flexible than themselves.
Topic 3) Value chain transfer of automobile supply chain
Xu Daquan: There are two levels. On the one hand, private cars should be more attractive to customers, and new IT interconnection technology, better entertainment system, real-time fault diagnosis system and driver assistance system should be introduced to increase customer experience.
On another level, if travel service is the future trend, it is likely that one or two travel service providers will become the top of the ecological chain, such as Didi, Uber and Raffles. The pattern will change greatly, and there may not be so many OEMs to build different cars. ?
Xu Junhai: In the past, it was a one-time deal with suppliers. Only the next model will consider how to make new changes, and now it will continue to iteratively upgrade with suppliers.
From the perspective of pricing model, although manufacturers invest more in R&D, software and hardware costs, they can charge consumers service fees through continuous upgrading. The key is that car companies can provide a service experience that exceeds expectations.
Topic 4) The key for China automobile industry to establish the core competitiveness of smart cars: organizational innovation, talent introduction and the definition of innovation?
Xu Daquan: Traditional enterprises must adjust their strategies. Bosch was thinking about how to do it a few years ago, and set up the intelligent network connection business department to concentrate the automobile and network connection on a breakthrough. Starting from June 65438+1 October1next year, Bosch will also set up a new business division, integrating the fields of power control, body control, automatic driving and intelligent cockpit into one business division. This team has17,000 people and invests 3 billion euros (about 25 billion RMB) every year, which will spend great energy to develop and define the future automotive software.
IT is necessary to cope with new technologies and future changes through changes in business units, at the same time, it is necessary to cut down the lengthy decision-making process within the company, introduce talents from the IT industry, expand cooperation and invest in new innovative companies. Also consider who to serve in the future. Bosch used to mainly serve traditional OEMs, and defined many new customers in the future.
The biggest challenge from hardware to software is the change of thinking. We need to introduce talents, many of whom are from IT industry. Whether the original salary and benefits can attract and retain them is also a huge challenge. ?
Xu Junhai: It is not enough to innovate the system and mechanism only in the organization. It is not enough to rely solely on the intelligence of car companies themselves. It can be achieved through industrial alliances. In the field of talents, what is more needed is a compound talent who knows both software and the future direction of automobiles.
More importantly, enterprises re-examine what kind of cars they want to make in the future from the perspective of innovation. There is no product manager to define the future car, because there is no place to locate it, you have to think for yourself. Strategy is more important than technology.
Topic 7) Openness will become an important trend in the development of automotive software.
Xu Junhai: There may be two considerations about the opening of Tesla software. On the one hand, for the future L4 autopilot, the software must develop in an open direction. Both autonomous driving and network connection need more data to form a data closed loop. Tesla's open source software should also be based on getting more data and faster iteration.
On the other hand, self-driving cars are equivalent to robots, and many countries will restrict foreign brands of self-driving vehicles for safety reasons. Does Tesla want to show that he is safe and harmless in this way? It can be monitored by the state, which may be due to these two considerations.
Guangzhou Automobile has opened the ADiGO platform, including hardware and software, and will do L4 autopilot in the future, and ICV will also develop in the open direction in the future.
"Guangzhou Automobile ADiGO (Intelligent Driving Interconnection) Ecosphere"
Topic 6) The domestic automatic driving of landing intelligent network connection lacks the basic layer.
Dai Yifan: Generally speaking, the more smart cars go to the basic layer, the more lacking they are, and the better they go to the application layer. Some product chips, electronic devices, underlying software and sensors related to intelligent networked automobile foundation are often ignored by everyone.
The advantage lies in communication and networking, which promotes the coordination and networking of vehicles and roads and is strongly supported by national policies. There are also many application scenarios such as mines, ports, sweepers, logistics vehicles and self-driving minibuses, and a large number of domestic test and demonstration bases have been established to promote the development of these applications.
Topic 7) There are still many entrepreneurial opportunities in the fields of autonomous driving and car networking.
He Xiongsong: Time node is very important. It will take a long time for a driverless taxi to actually land, but L4 company in a certain scene will successfully land in two to three years. This is a very good opportunity, and the turning point of income and profit will come soon.
Xu Daquan: It's still the Warring States period, and no one really won the game. In this case, there are many entrepreneurial opportunities. Bosch pays more attention to hydrogen fuel cells, which are divided into stack, system integration, core components, automatic driving including laser radar technology, sensor perception fusion, image processing technology, AI-based decision control, accurate vehicle positioning, vehicle-road coordination V2X technology, roadside units and so on. There are many opportunities to consider. (Editor/car home? Du Junyi)