Let me begin to elaborate:
(A) to distinguish between two levels of problems.
First, compared with no electronic payment (for example, in the first half of last century), has mobile payment changed the currency circulation greatly? Very big. As mentioned in many answers above, the speed of money circulation has changed.
Second, on the basis of electronic payment (including credit card and debit card), does mobile payment greatly change the currency circulation? I think so, but not that big. On this point, I agree with Brother Hui Hang and many answers above. However, mobile payment does further reduce the currency circulation cost (transaction cost), as well as the consumption psychology and behavior mentioned by friends in Dai Yi, thus changing the currency circulation speed, that is, changing the actual commodity market equilibrium mentioned by many friends above. But compared with the influence of the electronic payment revolution, it is still much smaller at present.
(B) a clear definition of this issue
When we ask whether A has any influence on the currency circulation, we mean that if there is no A, we have to meet the same demand, will the currency circulation be different?
I think the answer to the main question is: Yes.
The main effects include: changing the speed of money circulation, changing the money multiplier, and changing the demand (or supply) of money.
The change of money demand (or supply) includes the change of money credit creation brought by direct finance, and the change of credit creation brought by mobile payment to alleviate information asymmetry and its influence on market clearing mechanism.
However, it should be noted that mobile payment and Yu 'ebao are different concepts, both of which have an impact on currency issuance, but they cannot be confused. Yu 'ebao is a monetary fund and has nothing to do with mobile payment. If you can only realize mobile payment, it will arrive immediately. For example, the APP developed by the bank itself is also mobile payment, and there is no property of money fund.
(3) the transformation of monetary funds (direct finance and informal finance) to currency issuance (currency multiplier, credit nature of currency)
1, currency multiplier
Because the deposit interest rate and money multiplier can make the total amount of money issued in the form of geometric series, it will converge to a fixed value. And we can regard the direct credit market as a bank without RRR, so there will be no geometric growth. At this time, this kind of credit expansion can only be directly restricted by the income (interest rate, various fundamental expectations) created by credit. I want to continue this point after discussing the credit nature of money. But obviously, when the proportion of direct credit creation without deposit restrictions increases, the money multiplier will change.
2. The credit nature of money.
Some friends mentioned in the comments answered by @ Huihang above that shopping mall coupons have an impact on currency issuance? Yes
Modern currency is a national credit attribute, or national credit standard (I will put it into decameron's last three topics about the history of the international currency reserve system when I have time). To understand, the essence of modern money is a kind of credit expansion.
For example, you do me a business favor. I said, Lao Zhang, thank you. Come to me if you need anything in the future. Yes, at this time, money has been replaced by a way of credit, or my promise itself has the property of money. It is precisely because of the existence of this credit relationship that people do not need to pay their own money every time to obtain explicit storage value. If you Lao Zhang is just a person who doesn't know you very well, then I will pay for your help, and you also hope that your efforts will be rewarded with considerable storage value. Generally speaking, it is money. Therefore, if we study the influence of rural interpersonal relationship on currency circulation, we will certainly get significant empirical results. If primitive people can exchange things for things, then modern people can also exchange hearts for hearts, which is the same reason.
Therefore, any kind of credit has the attributes of modern money, and they will naturally affect the circulation and circulation of modern money. This is why the national credit currency can only be created by the central bank, which has strong restrictions on institutional electronic money. If all large institutions adopt their own electronic money, financial supervision will be very difficult. For example, if you go to Wal-Mart in the future, you don't need to swipe your card, but you need to swipe your Wal-Mart currency card. If, um, everyone wants to go shopping at Wal-Mart, and Wal-Mart monopolizes more than 30% of the global retail sales, then people who do business with you and people who talk about projects with you are also willing to settle transactions in Wal-Mart's currency. Ha, are you familiar with this place, similar to all kinds of foreign currencies? That's right. Because foreign currencies are different national credits. Just like the credit of different companies, they are all based on credit. Credit in any life has the attributes of modern currency, which will inevitably affect the circulation and circulation of modern currency (don't forget, when we ask if A has any influence on currency issuance, we are asking? On the other hand, if there is no such credit in life, then? )。
3. Comprehensive impact
From the above two points, we can know that direct finance (money fund), especially informal finance (formal finance refers to capital activities subject to financial supervision), has a significant dual impact on currency issuance. Changing the speed of circulation and credit creation will directly affect the demand for money (also called supply, depending on how endogenous you think a money market is).
Therefore, direct finance such as money fund can be regarded as a shadow bank without deposit interest rate, so monetary expansion can theoretically have no convergence result. However, in reality, credit income and expectation will affect the process of credit creation. For example, I will lend you 1000, you lend it to Lao Zhang 1000, Lao Zhang lends it to Lao Li 1000, Lao Li can lend it to Lao Wang 10000, and Lao Li can lend it to me 1000. Then I think I have 1 000 yuan, and I lent it to Lao Zhao 65438+. So in theory, this process can continue without convergence (this is similar to the example of 1000 changing to 2000 mentioned by @ Huixing, but the main difference is that it is not direct finance, as mentioned at the beginning). But in fact, this process will not last long, because every loan needs an interest, and finally the capital leverage will be high, so that the credit expansion will stop and the direct financial market will be restricted by various economic factors. Of course, it depends on the expectations of various economic factors in the future to judge the changes in real interest rates. Ray Dalio's How the Economic Machine Works briefly describes the change and economic cycle of this credit creation process. In his famous "Prosperity and Depression", irving fisher also made a wonderful non-empirical discussion on this issue, and was good at "debt-deflation theory" (how to understand irving fisher's debt-deflation theory? -Nash Lu's answer).
(D) Modern bank runs and changes in the nature of money
A neighbor asked, what would happen if modern banks ran into a run?
If the bank will go bankrupt, this is consistent with past runs. Panic. People will scramble to move their assets.
If the bank will not go bankrupt, it will be inconsistent with past runs. In the first half of the last century, people needed to use money, which was based on various precious metals, rather than the national credit standard. Therefore, only from the perspective of liquidity demand, people are also worried about the lack of money in banks and the sharp depreciation of money, hoping to take out money and replace assets. For example, buy a house quickly, change gold quickly and so on. Because a person's deposit in the bank is only part of his financial management, he will definitely go to the bank to run money when there is a currency crisis.
However, in the nature of modern national credit, the first and second points have been eased a lot. Unless you are worried about the danger of "national credit value" (including currency devaluation, sovereignty crisis, political crisis, etc. ), assets (including currency) based on the national credit of the country will not have a run crisis. Secondly, after the emergence of electronic payment, the nature of money has changed a lot. In the past, money was gold coins, silver coins and paper money. But not now. The money you transfer to another person is directly transferred from your current account to another person's current account. This is very different from the past. In other words, the attributes of cash and demand deposits have become more blurred than before.
Moreover, many economics textbooks are based on the era when money and demand deposits are essentially different. Before the popularity of electronic money in the last century, the public could only use money to make purchases, and a few people could use other checks or transfer instructions. I just want to buy something and can't swipe my card. You must withdraw your current deposit in the bank, turn it into cash and buy it. The seller will deposit the received cash in the bank and turn it into a demand deposit. This is a liquidity exchange with cash holding stage. Now electronic money is very smooth, even if you buy a house, you can immediately change your current deposit in the bank into the other party's current deposit in the bank by transferring money. Therefore, in this case, some previous analysis of the money ratio (the relationship with interest rates and inflation) will change. For example, if there is no banking crisis but hyperinflation, then people don't need to take out money, hold it first and then buy it to change their wealth portfolio. In the event of a banking crisis, the transfer or escape of money is consistent with the past.
These also have an impact on the circulation of money (or the balance of money supply and demand), but they also affect the supply and demand of money by affecting the circulation speed and credit creation.
(E) Mobile payment brings new changes: information asymmetry (affecting credit creation and market clearing mechanism)
At the same time, mobile payment may bring a new change, that is, alleviating the problem of information asymmetry, which will affect credit creation and market clearing mechanism. Mobile payment can get richer data of individual capital activities, reduce information asymmetry and help indirect and direct financial systems to expand credit creation. But more importantly, it affects the market clearing mechanism.
I am a neo-Keynesian preference. Therefore, in my past decameron, the decameron of Macroeconomics-Day 4-Policy Time Delay, Transmission Mechanism and Monetary Policy-Half-acre Square Pond: Reading Notes on Economy and Finance-Zhihu column briefly introduced why the money market could not be cleared naturally. Excerpts are as follows:
In the case of asymmetric information, both interest rate selection and bank risk preference revolve around a core problem "adverse selection". Anyone familiar with adverse selection knows that mishkin described it in his textbook of monetary finance as "the more irresponsible those are, the more willing they are to accept high interest rates and get loans". In fact, these people are not all lenders. If we divide the lenders into low-risk preference and high-risk preference, then when the interest rate of the bank is very low, all people can easily get credit, so they invest a lot in low-risk and low-yield businesses, and the bank's credit performance is good. When banks raise interest rates, the high cost of capital will make some lenders with low risk preference give up loans in fear, and push some borrowers with high risk preference to pursue high-yield and high-risk undertakings, resulting in bad debts in bank credit performance. When the interest rate reaches a certain level, under the "adverse selection" described by mishkin, the remaining lenders may all be people with high risk and low credit. Although the high interest rate makes the book interest income expected to be high, the bank will not operate well because it can't recover the loan.
Therefore, in reality, the bank's choice of loan interest rate is based on the balance of positive selection effect (bank income increases with the increase of interest rate level) and negative selection effect (bank income decreases with the increase of interest rate level) in order to maximize bank income. This also directly affects the performance of banks in risk appetite. Banks with different risk preferences will adopt different choices when deciding the credit scale and loan interest rate, which makes the actual situation of monetary expansion not as simple as the calculation of monetary multiplier in primary schools. Therefore, the interest rate choice of banks is often not equal to the equilibrium interest rate of market clearing, and there are both credit effect (low-interest loans) and rationing effect (low-interest loans are initially issued), which makes it impossible for lenders with high risk preference and the ability to pay high interest rates to obtain credit (Stightz and Weiss, 198 1).
Even without monetary funds as the support of mobile payment, the mobile payment platform can obtain a large number of personal consumption data, thus playing a significant role in consumer finance (such as consumer credit and auto finance), alleviating information asymmetry, changing the clearing mechanism of the market, affecting currency circulation and supply and demand, and further affecting currency circulation.
(6) Summary
I think it should be clearer above. There are still unexpected places, and everyone is welcome to discuss them together. This is an open question, a good question, from which at least ten papers can be published. You can study the influence of interpersonal relationship on the supply and demand of money from different angles, including what I mentioned, the influence on the path of credit creation mentioned by Brother Huihang, and the changes in consumer psychology and behavior mentioned by Dai Yi's friend. Even if it is only from the aspects of monetary policy, endogeneity and liquidity, we can make a big fuss. I have to say, this is really a good topic. I listed several topics for my thesis. Ha ha.