The "Proposal on Investing in the Technical Transformation Project of 10,000 Tons of Maotai Liquor in the Fourth Phase of the Eleventh Five-Year Plan" was adopted.

I. Overview of investment

According to the development strategy of Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the company"), the spirit of the 11th Five-Year Plan and the investigation and forecast of the consumer market, the company will invest in the fourth phase of the 11th Five-Year Plan for the technical transformation of 2,000 tons of Moutai. The total investment of this project is about14.609 million yuan (including 419.07 million yuan for the technical renovation project of brewing facilities, 40 173 million yuan for the wine cellar project, and 314.69 million yuan for the technical renovation project of koji-making production facilities and the construction project of auxiliary facilities). It accounts for 65,438+03.94% of the company's total audited assets in 2007 and 65,438+07.46% of the company's audited net assets in 2007. The required funds are raised by the company itself.

Second, the main contents of the investment project

The construction site of the above project is located in the new winery area, with a construction area of about 247,500 square meters. The construction contents mainly include: building 200-ton distilleries 10, 6 distilleries 17 distilleries10. 260m riverbank, chaff storehouse, canteen office space of distillery workshop, office space of distillery workshop, toilet, bathroom and toilet of distillery workshop, etc. The construction period of this project is from June 65438+ 10 to February 65438+February 2009.

The 2000-ton Moutai technical transformation project in the fourth phase of the 11th Five-Year Plan has been confirmed by Guizhou Economic and Trade Commission (Guizhou Economic and Trade Technical Transformation Equipment [2008] No.91,92, 99, 100).

Third, the impact of investment projects on the company.

The project is built in the new winery area, where the geographical and climatic conditions meet the requirements of Moutai production, which is conducive to the formation of relatively centralized koji-making, brewing, wine storage, supporting facilities and auxiliary facilities, and is convenient for centralized management of production and operation.

According to the project filing application report issued by Guizhou Architectural Design and Research Institute for this project, after the above-mentioned project is completed and put into production, it is estimated that 2,000 tons of Moutai will be produced normally, with annual sales income of 1.27, 1.578 million yuan, sales tax of 304,825,300 yuan and total profit of 585,279,300 yuan. It accounts for about 65,438+09.73% of the company's audited net profit in 2007, the investment profit and tax rate is 73.99%, the investment profit rate is 40.06%, and the static investment payback period is 8.33 years (including the construction storage period of 5 years).

The above projects are an important part of the company's 11th Five-Year Plan. Generally speaking, the implementation of this project is of great significance for making full use of Moutai's unique ecological and natural environment resources, relying on the company's advantages in capital, technology and technology, steadily expanding the production capacity of Moutai, further exerting the brand advantage of Moutai as a national wine, better meeting the needs of consumers, enhancing the core competitiveness of enterprises and promoting the development of enterprises. Overall, the project has good economic, social and environmental benefits.

From June to August this year, the revenue growth of liquor industry remained stable, but the profit growth rate decreased, and the gross profit margin of the industry also decreased from 36. 1 1% in the same period last year to 34.25%. The gross profit margin of liquor industry is the first.

Recession and economic slowdown have begun to affect the sales of liquor.

At present, the highest investment rating is Eurasia Group (600697). The top 20 stocks are mainly concentrated in the chemical, pharmaceutical, household durable consumer goods, retail and liquor industries.

Now make a brief analysis of liquor plate. Because liquor is sensitive to the slowdown of economic and consumption growth, the slowdown of consumption growth will undoubtedly make the liquor industry prosper under the expectation of economic slowdown.

Affected. Analysts of Qunyi Securities said that due to the economic downturn, the liquor industry, especially high-end liquor products, will not be able to achieve a high prosperity in 2009.

As this year continues, the industry boom may have peaked.

Analysts at CICC believe that liquor sales continued to grow strongly in the third quarter, but rising costs and expenses affected the profitability of the industry. Is this market segment facing sustained prosperity?

The risk of deterioration remains to be seen. Although they think that the competitive advantage of Kweichow Moutai in the high-end wine market segment and the upcoming asset injection and related transactions of Wuliangye will improve the company's operation.

Situation, so that the two companies still have the ability to resist the risk of short-term decline in industry profit growth.

China Merchants Securities analysts pointed out that from the fundamentals of liquor listed companies, the future growth of Kweichow Moutai is the most certain. Only Wuliangye successfully crossed the economic crisis of 1997 and 1998.

But if anyone has this opportunity this time, it must be Kweichow Moutai, because it has left enough profit for the intermediate link compared with other companies, and dealers will benefit no matter how the terminal price falls.

Run, also have the enthusiasm to expand sales. They pointed out that the real risk of high-end liquor enterprises may not be economic depression, but getting carried away and blindly expanding sales in good years. Just go home

With a solid foundation, Kweichow Moutai insists on "no digging old pits and no selling new wine", and the company will surely hold the leading position of 1 in the next high-end liquor golden decade.

A little.

GF Securities analysts said that although the growth rate of liquor production may decline from the perspective of the development of the entire liquor industry, the decline in economic growth may also affect high-end liquor.

The ability to raise prices. But in the long run, high-end liquor brands and pits can still improve their profitability by raising prices in stages in the future because of their scarcity and non-replicability.

1. The experience of Maotai Dealer Conference verified two earlier industry viewpoints. First, the demand for high-priced wine in the early stage was not fully met, making the pressure of supply-side growth relatively limited even if the demand shrinks in the future. Second, brand competitiveness can explain the ability of enterprises to resist the risk of economic downturn.

2. Judging from the dealer's ordering intention, the sales volume of high-alcohol Maotai is still expected to maintain steady growth in 2009.

3. Price increase may be sacrificed as a means for the company to manage the market, but whether the price increase is final or not, a series of measures taken by the company to deal with risks should ensure the upward trend of its profit rate unchanged.

In the next two years, we still have confidence in the company's ability to maintain sales and profit growth, and the company's share price should have strong defensive ability.

Brand power determines the ability to resist risks.

Maotai is still the most influential high-end liquor brand in the consumer and distributor market, which can be seen from the most expensive terminal retail price of Maotai and the wholesale and retail price difference as high as 250 yuan/bottle (referring to the difference between ex-factory price and terminal retail guide price). The explanation of brand power for anti-risk is not only reflected in the enthusiasm of dealers to order and the company's ability to continue the growth trend of sales and profits, but also in the fact that manufacturers still dare to use price and other control means to regulate and guide dealers' behavior.

The stock price should have a strong defensive ability.

Although there is still a slight downward pressure on earnings in 2008, we still have confidence in the company's ability to maintain sales and earnings growth in the next two years, and believe that the current earnings forecast for the next two years is not radical, and the company's share price should be more defensive.

Although the current stock price is nearly 7% higher than the discount price of DCF, the assumptions used in the discount model are harsh (for example, the assumption of weighted average capital cost 12% may be higher than the reality, and the assumption of annual compound growth rate of earnings before interest and tax 1 1-20 17 may still be insufficient to reflect the long-term growth potential of leading high-end liquor enterprises).

With the impact of the financial crisis spreading to the real economy, some speculations and rumors about high-end consumer goods have prevailed recently, among which there are rumors that the terminal sales price of Moutai has begun to decline. The reporter interviewed the relevant person in charge of Kweichow Moutai. According to the relevant person in charge, according to market feedback, Moutai is still in short supply, and the gap between supply and demand is still huge. In 2009, the company will invest about 654.38+0.46 billion yuan to continue to increase the output of Maotai base liquor.

Judging from the dealers' ordering intention to attend the "Moutai National Distributor Friendly Conference" held in Xiamen on February 5, 65438, the sales volume of high-grade Moutai will maintain a steady growth trend in 2009. Li, head of Kweichow Moutai Sales Co., Ltd., said that neither the wholesale price nor the market terminal price has loosened. As a responsible enterprise, the company hopes that the terminal price of Moutai will be lower than the upper limit set by the company to ensure that consumers can afford Moutai. I also hope that through the management of the marketing system, we can change the simple profit-seeking behavior of dealers in the past and pay more attention to social responsibility.

Ji Keliang, chairman of Maotai Group, who has just returned from a meeting in Xiamen, said that the problem that has been puzzling enterprises in recent years is how to solve the contradiction between "meeting consumer demand and limited Moutai production". From the feedback of dealers, this contradiction between supply and demand will continue in 2009. Yuan Renguo, chairman of Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd., said that in June 5438+065438+ 10, the management of the company also had an exchange with famous domestic economists to discuss whether it was necessary to adjust the current development pace. After expert argumentation, due to the particularity of production technology, the market gap of Moutai can not be properly solved in the short term. Only by continuing to increase the output of Moutai according to the established plan can this contradiction be gradually alleviated. On the basis of experts' opinions, the board of directors of the company unanimously passed the Proposal on Investing in 2000-ton Moutai Technical Transformation Project in the Fourth Period of the Eleventh Five-Year Plan. In 2009, the company will invest about 654.38+0.46 billion yuan to continue to increase the output of Moutai.