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The influence of xxx on China's diplomacy
The Influence of Energy Crisis on China's Diplomacy

International oil prices are still soaring, and the historical highs in the past 20 years have been refreshed again and again. Since the two oil crises in the 1970s, the duration of this year's strong oil price shock is rare. As the second largest oil importer in the world, this round of oil price increase has a far-reaching impact on China, which not only drags down related industries, but also brings huge inflationary pressure. At the same time, it also directly contributed to the recent introduction of China's strategic oil reserve plan. Facing the continuous growth of domestic oil demand and the international era of low-cost oil is gone forever, it is very urgent to solve the energy security problem in China.

For today's China, the energy crisis is the number one problem to be solved urgently. Because the proportion of oil in the current world energy consumption structure is 39.97%, the energy crisis is highlighted as the oil crisis. Unlike other social and economic crises, it is neither temporary nor man-made and controllable. From the perspective of China's economic development model, it is based on mineral energy, and the core industries that drive economic growth are all high-energy industries. Therefore, if the energy problem is not solved, it will shake the industrial base that supports economic development. Judging from the national conditions, the problem is more serious: huge population pressure and relatively poor energy resources, facing the rising development demands of the people, the energy problem will be the most difficult equation to solve.

There is also a solution pressure, which comes from geopolitics. From the environmental point of view, we are in a relatively unfavorable position, and few foreign oil-producing areas can exert great influence on it and use it for us. The main oil producing area in the world is the Middle East, which is a place where our political and cultural strength is very weak and it is difficult to reach. From the Middle East to China, the maritime transportation line is quite long, but at present, due to the lack of corresponding technical, economic and military conditions, we are still unable to control the right to control the sea and air. Indonesia is rich in oil resources in Southeast Asia, but it is also a long distance from China, and it is the Islamic world, so our influence is very small.

Another is Russia and Central Asia. China is also actively exploring the pipeline for importing oil from Russia and Central Asian countries, but this is a very sensitive region with a strong geopolitical color. Although China and Russia have established good-neighborly and friendly relations, historically, there are also many disputes between the two countries. Although Russia is no longer a hero, it cannot be ignored that this sleeping giant is awakening, and it will become an important force again in 10- 15 years. And like any land rich in resources, this region also has the shadow of the entanglement and struggle of political and economic interests of some western countries.

Energy is a special commodity with political color. The so-called international relations are actually a contest of national interests, full of acquisition, giving and competition. During Putin's visit to China, Putin still did not give a clear answer to the issue of Sino-Russian energy cooperation that both sides are most concerned about. There is no other reason. Russia should take oil as a strategic weapon and gain the greatest benefit for its country in the competition and struggle between China and Japan. It is understandable that every country considers its own interests from the perspective of maximizing interests. However, the grounding of the "Anda Line" really sounded the alarm for us: the thinking of "energy diplomacy" needs to be broken. Grasping one's own needs, knowing what others want, studying opponents' ideas, grasping the diplomatic initiative and realizing one's own interests on the premise of winning * * * is still an urgent task for China, which has just started its "resource diplomacy".

2 1 century is the century of energy competition, and whether the energy problem can be solved is related to the peaceful rise of China. Now is not the time when huge investment can be exchanged for oil fields. Excellent crude oil assets on the earth have long been firmly controlled by western countries. Even in other regions, China enterprises want to participate in large-scale investment projects, but they are excluded by international oil giants. Therefore, only by actively carrying out "energy diplomacy" and constantly competing with international competitors can China find its place in the world petroleum strategic geography.

At the same time, this is also the need for the coordinated development of international relations. At present, China's dependence on foreign countries is close to 40%. By 2020, the oil consumption gap in China will reach more than 200 million tons! For a considerable period of time, China's dependence on foreign energy will be higher and higher, and the resulting friction is inevitable. At this time, "resource diplomacy" can also play the role of lubricant.

The role of strategic oil reserve is to deal with the crisis of oil supply shortage, which can only be short-term and cannot stabilize prices; Actively seeking dialogue with oil-producing countries, striving for more sources, and relying on external forces are equally unreliable; Therefore, the fundamental way to solve the energy crisis lies in itself and whether it can change the existing unsustainable growth model with high consumption and low output. If we can do a good job of "reducing expenditure" at home, we can also win more room for manoeuvre and more negotiating weight in energy diplomacy. The core of Scientific Outlook on Development is sustainable development, which is the key to solve the energy problem. Actually, think about it. How much oil can cheap industrial products and finished products get? If the energy bottleneck is not solved, our development achievements may be offset. Not only production, but also the lifestyle of unrestrained high consumption needs to be changed. Now we import a lot of oil every year, mainly for driving. This is not a question of moral influence or education. It is urgent to establish a resource-saving economic system.

China's economy continues to develop at a high speed. In 2020, the population will be 654.38+0.5 billion. According to the annual growth rate of 6.5438+million people, 8 million of them will be employed. Therefore, the annual growth rate of China's economy must be no less than 6% to support the huge employment pressure after population expansion. Then it is necessary to support the development of several major industries. In view of the present situation that pillar industries in China are all high-energy-consuming industries, we must take a "two-legged" development path in the future: first, actively develop new alternative energy sources, adjust the energy consumption structure, and realize leap-forward development; The second is to adjust the industrial structure and reduce the dependence of the national economy on high-energy-consuming industries.

Energy is a special commodity with political color. The idea of "energy diplomacy" needs to be broken through. Grasping one's own needs, knowing what others want, studying opponents' ideas, grasping the diplomatic initiative and realizing one's own interests on the premise of winning * * * is still an urgent task for China, which has just started its "resource diplomacy".