Exchange rate, also known as exchange rate, is the exchange rate at which one country's currency is converted into another country's currency. That is, the ratio of one country's currency to another's currency between two countries. The exchange rate issue is an important international financial issue closely related to the national economy. The appreciation or depreciation of the exchange rate will have a great impact on a country's foreign trade.
China's exchange rate system has mainly experienced the following stages: 1949- 1952, the exchange rate system in the early days of the founding of the People's Republic of China, and the centralized foreign exchange management system; 1953- 1978 foreign exchange management system of planned economy system, foreign trade is monopolized by state-owned foreign trade companies; 1979- 1993 The foreign exchange management system in the period of economic transformation is decided by the buyers and sellers independently according to the foreign exchange supply and demand, and the People's Bank of China appropriately intervenes in the market; Since 1994 established the socialist market economy system, the official exchange rate of RMB has been merged with the market exchange rate, and a floating exchange rate system has been implemented.
The RMB 1994 exchange rate merged, and the exchange rate was basically fixed from the Asian financial crisis at the end of 1997 to July 2005, which basically played a very good role in China's economic growth. Especially after China joined the World Trade Organization in 2002, the fixed exchange rate played an important role in China's rise to become a big trading country. However, since the second half of 2003, the RMB exchange rate has been pegged to the US dollar, which has led to an increasingly serious external economic imbalance in China. On April 10, 2008, the RMB exchange rate rose above 7 yuan RMB 1 USD, which was not only a milestone in the foreign exchange market, but also a historic moment in the relationship between China's economy and the global economy.
Influence of RMB appreciation on import and export trade of enterprises
(A) the favorable impact of RMB appreciation on China's import and export trade
1, RMB appreciation can improve the terms of trade. With the sharp increase of trade surplus, China's terms of trade have been deteriorating in recent years. According to a survey report of the Ministry of Commerce, from 1993 to 2000, the overall terms of trade index of China based on 1995 decreased by 13%. In 2003, the export commodity price index was 104, the import commodity price index was 109.7, and the terms of trade index was 95.4%, which was lower than the previous year's 98.8%. In other words, the ratio of the price of China's export commodities to the price of imported commodities is declining, that is, China must export more commodities in exchange for the same amount of imported commodities, and the national welfare is lost.
On the other hand, the appreciation of RMB will reduce the prices of imported products, especially raw materials and high-tech equipment, and enterprises will speed up technology introduction, improve production efficiency, upgrade products, and realize dynamic comparison and upgrading of products. At the same time, because most of the imported products are used for re-export. Therefore, with the improvement of enterprise productivity, the quality of export products is improved the most, which helps China enterprises to extend from the low end of the product industry chain to the middle and high end and improve the terms of trade. This will help us make better use of world resources, increase national welfare and improve the international competitiveness of our products as a whole.
2. RMB appreciation can optimize the structure of foreign trade commodities. At present, China's trade structure is very unreasonable, most enterprises are at the level of labor-intensive and low-tech content, and only some high-tech and deep-processed products are exported, often with short processing flow and low added value. Production factors such as high-tech equipment and intermediate inputs that truly reflect the technical level and factors must be imported from abroad, and nearly 80% of processing income belongs to the transfer of foreign output value. On the one hand, the enterprise's deep processing management is poor, the enterprise's deep processing chain is short, the imported raw materials are shaken, and there are many parts, which occupy most of the added value; On the other hand, because a large number of products are at the end of the value chain, they generally lack core technologies, independent brands and marketing networks, and are easily restricted by multinational companies, resulting in a situation of no independent property rights and hollowing out technology. It is in line with the development direction of China's industrial structure transformation to squeeze out those people with low technical content and added value and poor management in manufacturing industry by means of RMB appreciation. At the same time, the appreciation of RMB will lead to more intense competition in the industry, prompting enterprises to enhance their competitiveness through technological management innovation. Let those innovative and competitive manufacturing giants become stronger, reduce the vicious competition of inefficient enterprises overseas, and accelerate the pace of enterprises' "going out". From the international experience, the international brands of many countries, such as Japan and Germany, have grown up slowly during the appreciation of their own currencies.
3. The appreciation of RMB can reduce the anti-dumping lawsuits suffered by China's export products. For a long time, China has mainly relied on the quantitative expansion of cheap labor-intensive products to realize the export-oriented strategy, and quickly occupied the low-end market of international labor-intensive industries by virtue of its price advantage. According to the statistics of the Ministry of Commerce, in 2005, the United States imported US$ 20.779 billion (6 1, 62, 63) of textiles from China, accounting for 26.05438+0% of the total imports of similar goods. Footwear products (64 categories) 1, US$ 272,654,380 billion, accounting for 70.94% of the total import; The value of luggage products (category 42) was 6.259 billion US dollars, accounting for 71.66% of the total import value of similar products; Toys and games (95 categories) 1.9 1.4 1 billion dollars, accounting for 78.24% of the total imports. So are other developed countries.
Such a high market share will inevitably increase the trade conflict between China and other countries. In recent years, China has suffered the most anti-dumping lawsuits in the world. Through the appreciation of RMB, the foreign currency price of export products can be appropriately raised, and the anti-dumping pressure of foreign markets on China's export products can be alleviated. At the same time, export support policies such as foreign exchange retention, export subsidies and trade credit can be appropriately reduced, which is also conducive to improving the competitiveness of export enterprises themselves. In addition, the appreciation of RMB can also raise the price of domestic nontradable goods, eliminate the distortion of the relative price of tradable goods and nontradable goods, and be beneficial to the balanced development of various industries, especially the tertiary industry.
(B) the adverse impact of RMB appreciation on China's import and export trade
1, the further rise of the real effective exchange rate will weaken exports. Investigating the influence of exchange rate fluctuation on trade balance mainly depends on the real exchange rate and the real effective exchange rate, not the nominal exchange rate, and measuring the change of the real exchange rate mainly depends on the relative speed between the exchange rate and the inflation rate. When the exchange rate depreciates faster than the inflation rate, the real exchange rate falls, and vice versa. From 1993 to 2003, the inflation in China was higher than the world average at first, and then gradually stabilized, so the real effective exchange rate in China fluctuated slightly within a certain range after the overall improvement. From 1990 to 2003, although the nominal effective exchange rate of RMB depreciated by nearly 40 basis points, the real effective exchange rate of RMB appreciated by 3.59%, which made the international competitiveness of China's export commodities decline. However, as the trade decline effect brought by the appreciation of RMB's real effective exchange rate is offset by the more influential foreign income growth effect, it is easy for several major trading partners of China to link their trade deficit with China with RMB exchange rate. Under the condition that the real effective exchange rate of RMB appreciates, if RMB appreciates, it will further increase the real effective exchange rate of RMB, which is the decisive factor that determines a country's multilateral trade. Therefore, the appreciation of RMB will reduce China's existing trade surplus to some extent.
2. Affect the enthusiasm of foreign investors to invest in China. Since China's reform and opening up, preferential conditions have attracted a large number of foreign-funded enterprises and multinational companies to enter China. The products they produce are sold at home, and a large part of them are used for export. In the past 20 years, the export share of foreign-invested enterprises in China's total exports has been growing at a high speed, with 200 1 year exceeding 50% of the total exports. The rise of RMB exchange rate means the increase of foreign investment cost in China. Therefore, foreign capital may turn to flow into China's capital market, thus affecting the capital investment of "foreign-funded enterprises" in China. At the same time, "foreign-funded enterprises" are the main carriers of China's import and export trade, accounting for a large proportion in China's import and export trade. Therefore, from this perspective, the appreciation of RMB may have some negative effects on China's import and export trade.
Countermeasures for Developing China's Foreign Trade
(a) the use of financial instruments for hedging
At present, exchange rate hedging products mainly include forward foreign exchange settlement and sale business, structured foreign exchange settlement and sale business, selective trading, currency swap and so on. Forward settlement and sale of foreign exchange is the main way to avoid risks in China's financial market at present, but it requires high accuracy in judging the exchange rate trend of enterprises. Using financial market tools to avoid exchange rate risk is a common method to fix foreign exchange costs for enterprises with currency exposure risk in the international market. However, at present, there is a certain gap between the hedging tools provided by financial institutions in China and the needs of enterprises in terms of product structure, design and charging standards. Financial institutions in China should also introduce more suitable hedging products to corporate customers as soon as possible.
(B) by choosing the terms of the contract to avoid exchange rate risk
Including signing short-term contracts, signing contracts in multiple currencies or directly in RMB, negotiating to lock in costs at a fixed exchange rate, and settling accounts in advance or later. When signing a foreign trade contract, enterprises should try to add exchange rate risk clauses to the contract. When exchange rate changes cause losses to the interests of enterprises, new terms will be implemented to ensure the profit space of enterprises. For example, when signing a contract, add a clause about RMB appreciation. If RMB appreciates to a certain extent during delivery, the price will be readjusted.
(C) the use of trade financing to avoid exchange rate risks
At present, the main financing methods in China are letter of credit, export draft, packaged loan, foreign exchange bill discount, import draft and international factoring financing. Trade financing can easily solve the problem of enterprise capital turnover. Foreign currency loans can be obtained through trade financing methods such as export bills of exchange and settlement of foreign exchange in real time, which not only meets the cash flow demand of export shipment and foreign exchange collection, but also avoids exchange rate risks.
(D) the use of export credit insurance to avoid risks
Since the establishment of China Export Credit Insurance Corporation, thousands of enterprises have enjoyed the financing convenience under export credit insurance, which directly avoided the loss of exchange rate fluctuation. Banks can sell bank bills in time through the "bill insurance" products of China Export Credit Insurance Corporation, and settle foreign exchange in advance to avoid risks.