Econometric Analysis of Macroeconomic Development in China

First, two characteristics of China's economic development

At present, there are two main trends in China's economic development:

First, the external environment of China's economy is in the stage of continuous global structural adjustment after the crisis.

With the rapid development of economic globalization and informatization, a new round of industrial restructuring is in full swing around the world. This is a strategic choice for countries to adapt to the digital economy and meet the arrival of the information age. The whole global adjustment focuses on accelerating the development of high-tech with information technology as the core, promoting the upgrading of industrial structure, slowly shifting the focus from the secondary industry to the tertiary industry, and focusing on developing technology-intensive and information-intensive service industries.

Service industry, in order to adapt to the "new economy" era people's demand for knowledge-based service industry.

Judging from the current situation, the wide application of information technology has driven a number of related industries, spawned a series of marginal industries, transformed traditional industries, and promoted the integration of "new" and "old" industries. Information industry will continue to play a key role in the adjustment of global industrial structure, but at present, life science and biotechnology

In the future, the adjustment of global industrial structure will have an impact that cannot be underestimated. Judging from the development status of countries at this stage, the United States is far ahead in developing high-tech industries such as information industry, followed by countries such as Northern Europe, Canada, Australia and East Asia, and the European Union and Japan are catching up from the backward state. 2/kloc-0 At the beginning of the century, the pace of global industrial restructuring will continue to accelerate and the competition will become more and more fierce. At present, the global economic structure is in a period of adjustment, economic growth will definitely slow down, and even a serious economic crisis (such as the previous European debt crisis) will occur. Under the background of globalization, China's economic development is bound to be affected by the global economic situation.

Second, the internal factors of China's economic development determine that the economic growth rate will gradually slow down in the future.

The economic system established in the long-term development of China is government-led and export-oriented. Under this economic system, on the one hand, the government invests a lot of money to build infrastructure to stimulate economic growth, which may cause a lot of overcapacity and waste the limited social resources at present. On the other hand, due to the current resource price reform and rising wage costs, the competitive advantage of China's export industry has obviously weakened, and the real estate, which has always been one of the pillars of China's economy, has a bubble trend. So from the current situation,

Generally speaking, China's economy is on a platform from high growth in the past to relatively slow growth.

At the same time, China's actual economic operation is also a period of accumulation of a large number of historical problems, such as excessive currency, rising prices and a large number of cyclical and structural contradictions. For example, in the current price pressure, there are some reform measures such as the transfer of trade sectors to non-trade sectors, the rise of wages and resource prices in structural transformation, and prices are now in a moderately rising environment.

What do you think of the shadow of the political beam? Don't be clever with your father.

The influence of China's own excessive currency. Therefore, the government implements price control and the currency is slightly tight, so the economic growth rate will decline.

Second, the historical review of GDP

Judging from the current year-on-year GDP growth rate in China, the GDP growth rate in China in the first quarter of 2065,438+03 dropped to 865,438+0%, and the GDP growth rate in China in the first quarter is generally expected to be 8.4% or 8.5%. Under the background of globalization, China's economic development will inevitably be affected by the global economic situation.

Second, the internal factors of China's economic development determine that the economic growth rate will gradually slow down in the future.

The economic system established in the long-term development of China is government-led and export-oriented. Under this economic system, on the one hand, the government invests a lot of money to build infrastructure to stimulate economic growth, which may cause a lot of overcapacity and waste the limited social resources at present. On the other hand, due to the current resource price reform and rising wage costs, the competitive advantage of China's export industry has obviously weakened, and the real estate, which has always been one of the pillars of China's economy, has a bubble trend. So from the current situation,

Generally speaking, China's economy is on a platform from high growth in the past to relatively slow growth.

At the same time, China's actual economic operation is also a period of accumulation of a large number of historical problems, such as excessive currency, rising prices and a large number of cyclical and structural contradictions. For example, in the current price pressure, there are some reform measures such as the transfer of trade sectors to non-trade sectors, the rise of wages and resource prices in structural transformation, and prices are now in a moderately rising environment.

What do you think of the shadow of the political beam? Don't be clever with your father.

The influence of China's own excessive currency. Therefore, the government implements price control and the currency is slightly tight, so the economic growth rate will decline.

Second, the historical review of GDP

Judging from the current year-on-year GDP growth rate in China, the GDP growth rate in China in the first quarter of 2065,438+03 dropped to 865,438+0%, and the GDP growth rate in China in the first quarter is generally expected to be 8.4% or 8.5%. As can be seen from Figure 2, the potential GDP growth rate has experienced steady growth and tends to

The process of steady decline to the present stage. Since China in 2000.

In recent years, the trend growth rate after filtering is roughly in the range of 8%~ 10%, which belongs to a stable and high-speed growth state. At present, the level of economic development in China.

The most suitable bottom line for economic growth rate should be 8%. If the economic growth rate

Below 8%, the production problems and employment problems of enterprises will be highlighted, especially the employment problems. Due to the slowdown of economic growth, the production of enterprises is restricted, the overall employment demand of society will decrease, and the number of jobs will decrease, which will cause serious employment problems. In other words, if the employment problem is prominent and some unemployed people cannot guarantee basic food and shelter, it will intensify social contradictions and affect social harmony. At the same time, because our country is currently overcapacity.

In other cases, the reduction of economic growth rate will affect the whole production, and the most serious thing may be the negative growth of national fiscal revenue.

In addition, as an emerging economy, the fluctuation at the top of the potential GDP growth rate curve will be significantly greater than the change at the bottom. On the whole, under the influence of Zeng Ce, the economy oscillates upward and it is more likely to break out of the stable range. More attention should be paid to the possibility that the macro economy is running too fast or overheating is unsustainable, as shown in table 1. At present, in the process of the slow downward movement of the potential economic growth rate, it is conditional to realize the steady downward movement of the potential economic growth rate.

Since the subprime mortgage crisis broke out in the United States in 2008, China's macro-control focus has undergone four adjustments. At present, in order to reverse the downward trend of the economy and promote the recovery of the economic situation, the focus is on "ensuring growth". Under the global financial crisis, China adopted a proactive fiscal policy and a loose monetary policy, and implemented a series of plans to stimulate economic recovery, until the price increase climbed to the peak of 6.5% in July of 20 1 1 year. During this period, China's economic trend returned to a normal and good economic state in a "V" shape. In this context, after the introduction of a series of measures to stabilize prices, CPI

The index fell month by month, and fell to 4. 1 of 20 1 in February. With the price rising.

With the decline, the economic growth rate of 20 1 1 year dropped to 9.2%, down 12 percentage points from the previous year. The price increase of 20 12 continued to fall, falling to 3% in May, leaving some room for preventing the economic growth from falling too fast and moderately loosening and fine-tuning macro-control. By May of 20 12, when the economic indicators such as industrial production, investment in fixed assets and the growth rate of import and export dropped obviously, it was put forward that macroeconomic regulation and control should "put steady growth in a more important position". As a result, a series of related measures such as expanding domestic demand, promoting consumption, encouraging investment, promoting the implementation of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" project, structural tax reduction, lowering the deposit reserve ratio, and lowering the deposit and loan interest rates have been introduced one after another. Compared with the "stimulus plan" of 2008-20 10, the stimulus this time is not so great. In the second half of the year, the economic growth rate entered a slight rebound.

Tao.

Judging from the fluctuation of annual economic growth rate, a new economic cycle (cycle 1 1) began in 20 10. By the end of 20 13, this cycle has lasted for 3.

A few years. The economic growth rates in 20 10 and 201year are 10.4% and 9.2% respectively, and it is predicted to be 8.5% in 20 12. This cycle will not go out of a "2+7" cycle like the ninth cycle, that is, a two-year rising period plus a seven-year stable falling period will not.

Step out of an "8+2" cycle similar to 10 cycle. This cycle is possible.

Walk out of a new trajectory, that is, a tortuous trajectory of slow rise and slow fall.

Fourth, PMI analysis

At present, more than 20 countries around the world have established PMI comprehensive economic indicators detection system, and the world manufacturing PMI system and service PMI system have also been established. PMI system is currently divided into service industries.

PMI, construction PMI, manufacturing PMI, it is a comprehensive economic indicators testing system, published once a month.

Potential.