China's accession to the WTO is a foregone conclusion. Based on the regulations and requirements of WTO for China's agriculture, this paper focuses on analyzing the basic characteristics of the allocation of agricultural production factors in China, distinguishing the competitive advantages and disadvantages of China's agriculture, and judging the impact of WTO on China's agriculture and even related listed companies.

Meat imports will be subject to a single tariff management system, while meat tariffs will be reduced, and tariff concessions will be completed in 2004.

Reduce the import tariff of fish, and gradually adjust the tax rate from the current 25.3% to 65438+ 1 in 2005.

China's rural population is about 900 million. According to the statistics of the statistics department, the rural population with the ability to work and obtain employment is estimated to reach about 600 million. According to the normal ratio of people to land, agriculture only needs about 654.38+billion labor force, and another 500 million labor force needs to be transferred to non-agricultural employment.

Although the total amount of natural resources in China is not small, it is very scarce compared with other countries in the world in terms of per capita possession, and the labor force is greatly surplus. China's natural resources are very scarce, mainly in the scarcity of land resources. The scale of land management in China is very uneconomical, and the land area of each farmer is less than one hectare. The area of cultivated land in the United States is almost twice that of China, but the number of farms is only 2 million, which is less than 1% in China. The average size of the farm is over 65,438+000 hectares. The agricultural land area in the EU is the same as that in China, but there are only 7.4 million farms, and the average size of each farm is nearly 20 hectares, which is much higher than the average land area of farmers in China.

The purchase price of major agricultural products is obviously higher than the international price level.

Taking the international futures price as the comparison standard, if the international futures price of 1998 is 100, then the price levels of major agricultural products in China should be: wheat 143, rice1kloc-0/,corn 180 and soybean. Obviously, among the nine agricultural products, eight have lost their price advantage, and only pigs still have price advantage.

(3) The export competitiveness of major agricultural products is generally poor.

1, rice: from 1990 to 1996, it has been in a state of net export, and the competitiveness coefficient has been maintained at 1. Rice is an agricultural product with comparative advantages in China's grain crops. However, since 1990s, the production cost of rice has increased year by year, and this comparative advantage is gradually disappearing.

2. Wheat: China wheat 199 1- 1997 has been imported from abroad, and its competitiveness coefficient is set at-1.

3. The export competitiveness coefficient of corn: 1990- 1995 is-1. After 1996, China's corn exports grew rapidly, and the export competitiveness coefficient of 1997 reached 0.999. However, after China's entry into WTO, the impact on China's corn production and trade will be complicated and multifaceted.

2. Basic judgment

Judging from the import and export of agricultural products in the first half of this year, the import growth is faster than the export growth, especially the export of bulk agricultural products such as grain, cotton and sugar is on the decline. In contrast, the export situation of vegetables, aquatic products and livestock products is better. Although the import and export situation of a few varieties has changed, it still maintains the original pattern on the whole, that is, the structure of export competitiveness remains unchanged, land-intensive products are at a disadvantage in the competition, and labor-intensive products have comparative advantages.

(VI) Analysis conclusion

Third, the impact of China's accession to the WTO on agriculture.

From the perspective of provinces and cities, seven provinces and cities, such as 1, Fujian, Shanghai, Guangdong, Tianjin, Shandong, Zhejiang and Beijing, have higher comparative advantages and will benefit greatly from promoting exports, but they will face greater import pressure of land-intensive agricultural products; 2. Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, Shaanxi, Qinghai, Ningxia, Shanxi, Yunnan, Anhui, Gansu and other 10 provinces and cities, because of their comparative advantages in China's land-intensive products, face less import pressure on land-intensive products and less benefit from the export development of labor-intensive agricultural products; 3. Hainan, Guangxi, Liaoning, Jiangxi, Hebei, Hubei, Jilin and other seven provinces and cities, because of their comparative advantages in the production of labor-intensive and land-intensive agricultural products, not only can they gain greater benefits from the promotion of labor-intensive products exports, but they also face less import pressure of land-intensive agricultural products, and the situation is relatively favorable; 4. Hunan, Jiangsu, Sichuan, Chongqing, Guizhou, Tibet and other six provinces and regions lack comparative advantages in the production of two types of agricultural products, and benefit less from the promotion of labor-intensive products export. They are facing greater import pressure of land-intensive agricultural products, and the situation is relatively unfavorable.

(2) There are differences in the requirements of agricultural sub-industries for production factors, and the degree to which production factors can be met is different, which leads to differences in the comparative advantages or disadvantages of various sub-industries in the international market, thus resulting in differences in the influence of WTO.

The impact of China's accession to the WTO on various sub-sectors of agriculture is as follows:

3. Animal husbandry and feed industry: positive and negative effects coexist.

Animal husbandry is a labor-intensive industry, and China has certain competitive advantages. Especially pork products have obvious competitive advantages in the international market. China is not only a big producer of pork, but also a weak consumer of live pigs. After joining WTO, it is expected that importing low-priced feed will further reduce the cost of raising pigs and the competitive advantage of pork products will be more obvious. In contrast, although other meat products have certain competitive advantages, their advantages are not obvious, and the prospect of expanding exports is uncertain due to factors such as mad cow disease.

Feed industry, because the raw materials used mainly come from land-intensive agricultural products, the production cost is high and it lacks competitiveness. However, if some enterprises use low-priced imported grains to produce feed, the cost is expected to drop. The problem is that the feed cost is closely related to the cost of land-intensive agricultural products, and it is difficult to fundamentally reverse this situation of poor competitiveness.

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