Bubble economy and economic bubble
① Tulip Bulb Event-the first bubble event in history.
1630, the price of a tulip root in the Netherlands is $76,000 today, but it was only 1 dollar six weeks later-
1593, a Dutch businessman imported the first tulip root from Constanyine (now Turkey) and planted it. Because this flower is imported, it has become a symbol of wealth, so this trend has spread from Holland to Germany. At this time, tulips were infected with mosaic disease, which led to some bright color stripes or flames on tulip petals, so the infected tulips caused a wave of buying. From the first batch of tulip connoisseurs admiring its beauty to speculators speculating, the trading market formed and became lively like the stock market.
During the period of 1634, the tulip craze spread to the middle class and then became a national movement. Every family spends everything just to buy a tulip. 1 0,000 USD A tulip bulb becomes 20,000 USD in less than one month.
At the craziest time, 1 tulip bulbs = 4 tons of wheat = 1 bed = 4 cows = 8 pigs = 12 sheep.
1636, tulips were listed in some European stock markets, and some set options to lower the threshold of speculators, so that speculators could buy a fraction of tulips, so the price was pushed up again, from buying tulips in the original month, the profit could be 20 times, and the profit through options could be enlarged by 100 times.
At the highest point, the whole family was sold; The Dutch government began to take braking action; A large number of tulips will arrive in Turkey. The price of tulips began to fall, falling by 90% in six weeks. At this time, no matter how the government protects the market, it is unable to save the decline. Tulip prices continue to bottom out, and many stock market deliveries cannot be completed. However, the Dutch government declared this incident as a gambling incident, exempting delivery, and ended this crazy tulip bubble incident.
② South China Sea bubble event-the first bubble event in the history of the world securities market.
The word "bubble economy" comes from this incident.
/kloc-at the end of 0/7, the British economy developed vigorously. However, people's funds are idle and their savings are inflated. At that time, the circulation of stocks was very small, and owning stocks was still a privilege. For this reason, Nanhai Company found a lucrative business opportunity, that is, trading with the government in exchange for operating privileges, so Nanhai Company was established on 17 1 1.
17 19, the public was optimistic about the stock price, which promoted the conversion of bonds into stocks at that time, and then responded to the rise of stock prices.
1720, Nanhai Company accepted investors to purchase new shares by stages to stimulate stock issuance. After the British House of Commons passed the South China Sea Company Transaction Bill, the share price of South China Sea Company jumped from 129 to 160. When the House of Commons also passed the bill, the stock price rose to 390. So the investment was more enthusiastic, and more than half of the members of the Senate intervened, even the king was no exception. The shortage caused the price to soar above 1000. The real performance of the company seriously deviates from people's expectations.
1720 In June, the British Parliament passed the Anti-Financial Fraud and Speculation Act. Many companies were dissolved and the public began to question them, which affected Nanhai Company.
Since July 1720, insiders and government officials have sold heavily, and the share price of Nanhai Company has plummeted. In February, the price per share/kloc was-0/24, and south sea bubble was shattered.
The British Chancellor of the Exchequer made a private profit of 900,000 pounds in the insider trading of Nanhai Company. After the scandal was exposed, he was sent to the Tower of London in the Royal British Prison. However, those unsuspecting investors are worse off than him. The British economy and government credit have also been hit hard.
(3) Wall Street crash-the craziest speculation in history.
Before 1924, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fluctuated within a relatively narrow price range. Whenever it exceeds 1 10, it will suffer from strong selling pressure.
At the end of 1924, the stock index finally broke through this boundary.
1925, the stock index jumped above 150.
From 192 1 to 1928, the stock market was very depressed, and the industrial output value increased by 4% on average every year, while it increased by 15% from 1928 to 1929. Inflation is low and new industries are sprouting everywhere. Optimism is becoming more and more popular, and the low cost of capital has greatly stimulated the investment activities of stock investors.
1926, the stock market hit a new high every month after a short decline. This in turn incites more people to buy more stocks through cash loans from brokers. With the increase of investors, trust and investment companies have also increased, and people basically have no doubt about the credit of these companies. The most famous is Goldman Sachs, which invested in the establishment of Goldman Sachs Trading Company (GsTc) in 1928, and this company soon issued shares of 1 100 million dollars.
1February 7, 929, the stock price was $222.5 per share.
1On September 5th, 929, after babson made a famous prediction that the stock market would fall by 60-80 points, the market began to respond to babson's warning for the first time. On that day, the Dow Jones index fell 10 points. A few days later, under the favorable stimulus, buyers re-entered the market, but the stock price did not return to the previous high point. A new plunge began at the end of September, but it did not hit a new high after the rebound, and the transaction volume shrank sharply compared with the previous decline.
1929101October 2 1, cartographer William? Peter Hamilton warned that the graphic trend of the index was very bad. On that day, the market plummeted vertically and the crash kicked off.
1October 24th, 1929, people gathered in the street, showing an obvious atmosphere of panic. The situation is obviously out of control. The panic spread rapidly, and the stock price plummeted in the next few days, and the market seemed to be bottomless forever.
1October 29th, 1929, 10, under the strong selling pressure, the panic reached its peak, and160,000 shares fled at the cost of their lives.
1929165438+1October 13, and the index stabilized only when it fell to 224 points. Those investors who think the stock is cheap and take risks to buy it have made another serious mistake.
The price of 1930 fell further, and it didn't really bottom out until 1932 fell to 58 points on July 8. Industrial stocks have lost 85% of their original market value, and Goldman Sachs' investment certificate can be bought for less than $2.
The above three historical bubble events contributed to the bubble economy. The bubble economy is defined in Cihai (1999 edition) as: "The excessive growth of virtual capital and the continuous expansion of related transactions are increasingly divorced from the growth of physical capital and industrial sectors, the prices of financial securities and real estate are soaring, and speculative transactions are extremely active. The bubble economy lies in financial speculation, causing false prosperity of social economy, and finally the bubble will burst, leading to social shock and even economic collapse. "
But the bubble economy cannot be completely equated with the economic bubble. Economic bubble can lead to bubble economy, but it is not a sufficient condition for bubble economy.
Economic bubble is a common economic phenomenon in the market, that is, some non-real economic factors appear in the process of economic growth, such as financial securities, bonds, land prices and financial speculation. A moderate economic bubble is conducive to an active market economy. Only when the economic bubble is excessively inflated and seriously divorced from the needs of physical capital and industrial development will it evolve into a false and prosperous bubble economy. Therefore, we must recognize the objective inevitability of the existence of economic bubbles and prevent the excessive expansion of economic bubbles from evolving into bubble economy. The long-term existence of economic bubbles is conducive to capital concentration, promoting competition, activating the market and prospering the economy. On the other hand, there are negative elements in the false and speculative factors in the economic bubble, which may corrode people's minds.
Once the bubble economy is formed, the economic bubble may burst at any time, leading to economic collapse, distracted people and political turmoil. 17 At the end of 2008 and the beginning of 2008, there was a "Mississippi bubble" in France. Labor is directly related. He was born in banking. With his interest and knowledge in this field, and a heart to prove himself and make Europe strong, France, once on the verge of economic crisis, enjoyed prosperity, but in the end there was a credit crisis, which left France penniless.
The following satirical poem comes from France at that time:
On Monday, I went to buy stocks.
On Tuesday, I made millions,
On Wednesday, I buy furniture.
On Thursday, I bought clothes.
On Friday, I went dancing.
On Saturday, I entered the beggar's shelter.
John? The old man himself is also a victim and has been reacted by irrational investors. When he died, the situation was very miserable, but people put the blame on him alone, and even his epitaph read:
"Here lies the famous Scotsman,
His computer skills are unparalleled,
He used simple algebraic rules,
Let France fall into poverty. "
The bubble economy is not a one-man show. Without some improper measures taken by the French government at that time and the insatiable greed of irrational investors at that time, John? It is impossible for an old man to stage this initial tragedy.