Abstract: Economic cycle fluctuation is a comprehensive reflection of macroeconomic variable fluctuation. Since the reform and opening up, the fluctuation of total demand has become the main reason that affects the cyclical fluctuation of China's economy. Total demand mainly includes investment demand, consumption demand, government demand and foreign demand. The total supply shock or the combination with the total demand shock will lead to the instability of output and employment. The influence of total supply mainly includes the influence of production technology innovation, the influence of agricultural products fluctuation and the influence of energy and raw materials.
Keywords: economic cycle, total demand analysis, total supply analysis
First, China's economic cycle fluctuations in aggregate demand analysis
Since the reform and opening up, China has experienced four relatively complete economic fluctuations: 1 wave, 1978- 198 1 year, which lasted for four years; The second wave, 1982- 1986, lasted for 5 years; The third wave, 1987- 1990, lasted for 4 years; The fourth wave, 199 1- 1999, lasted for 8 years. In 2000, China entered the fifth economic cycle.
The fluctuation of economic cycle is a comprehensive reflection of the fluctuation of macroeconomic variables, and there are many reasons, among which the fluctuation of total demand has an important impact on economic cycle. For our country, the total demand has a far-reaching impact on the economy, especially since the reform and opening up, which has become the main reason for the cyclical fluctuation of our economy. Total demand mainly includes investment demand, consumption demand, government demand and foreign demand.
1. Analysis of reasons for investment demand
Investment fluctuation is an important reason for the cyclical fluctuation of China's economy. Investment fluctuation refers to the increase or decrease of total investment growth rate, that is, the increase or decrease of total investment growth rate in different years. In China, although the influence of investment fluctuation on the overall economic fluctuation in each period has its own characteristics, they all have a common feature, that is, investment fluctuation is always an important factor to determine the overall economic fluctuation. Investment causes fluctuations in gross national product, and there is a very strong positive correlation between them. According to calculation, the correlation coefficient between actual investment growth 1979- 1997 and actual GNP growth is as high as 79.5%. The correlation coefficient between nominal investment and nominal GNP reaches 99%, and the fluctuation of investment and economic growth is basically the same.
The specific transmission mechanism of China's investment fluctuation affecting China's economic cyclical fluctuation is as follows:
First of all, in China, investment fluctuations, especially the expansion and contraction of fixed assets investment, will directly drive the expansion and contraction of the production departments of the means of production, thus affecting the cyclical fluctuations of the overall economy. In China's previous economic cycle, investment in fixed assets has been an important force to promote China's economic take-off. Whenever the growth rate of investment in fixed assets rises, the departments of production materials such as cement and steel first grow rapidly. Because of industrial relevance, it will promote the development of other industrial sectors, thus promoting the overall economic level; On the contrary, the contraction of fixed asset investment will also lead to the decline of the whole economy.
Secondly, the expansion of investment will not only directly promote the high total social demand, but also promote employment and increase residents' income, thus promoting the increase of social consumption demand and indirectly promoting the increase of total social demand. In order to adapt to the increase of total social demand, enterprises will increase investment, so the demand will also increase ... In this process, prices and profits will rise, and they will provide financial guarantee for the next round of investment, so that the economy will expand cumulatively. However, when the economy expands to a certain extent, due to the bottleneck of energy and raw materials and the imbalance of industrial structure, investment will decline and the economy will enter a contraction stage. After the economy entered the trough, the government further adopted the macro-control policy of expansion in order to stimulate the economy, and the economy entered a new round of expansion and contraction. Investment fluctuation leads to economic cyclical fluctuation through the above process and becomes an important factor affecting economic cyclical fluctuation.
Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has maintained a double-digit high-speed growth and a low inflation rate. Since 1988, the situation has changed. Due to the strong social demand and the expectation of price reform, the inflation rate reached 18.5% for the first time in that year, and the state began to adopt austerity policies, and state-owned investment took the lead in falling back, with a lower growth rate than that of non-state-owned sectors; By 1989, the non-state-owned investment has declined for the first time since the reform, and the rate of decline is faster than that of the state-owned sector, which shows that the non-state-owned sector is more sensitive to the market reaction and will directly reduce investment if it is not expected well. 199 1 in the second half of the year, the country restarted its economy, with state-owned investment first and non-state-owned investment lagging behind; By 1992, state-owned investment is still growing substantially, and the growth rate is higher than that of non-state-owned sectors by 10 percentage point. Due to the market expectation, non-state-owned investment increased significantly in 1993, with a growth rate as high as 72%. By July this year, the state began to adopt a macro-tightening policy, and the growth rate of state-owned investment dropped significantly, but the economic boom was not over yet, and non-state-owned investment was still relatively strong. With the gradual contraction of state-owned investment, the non-state-owned sector has also shrunk. When the economic boom is expected to end, non-state-owned investment will fall faster than state-owned investment. From 65438 to 0997, the Asian financial crisis broke out, and the strategy of "two heads out" and the export-driven model were seriously challenged. In order to expand domestic demand, the government once again used the way of expanding state-owned investment to stimulate the economy, but the effect is decreasing, especially the private investment has not followed up, and the decline in growth rate is inevitable. 1997 the growth of non-state-owned investment is lower than that of state-owned investment. 1998, the state started state-owned investment again. Until 2000, driven by government investment, social investment became active. The growth rate of fixed assets rose from 5. 1% in/999 to 9.7%, further to 13.7% in 2006, and to 13.7% in 2002. In 2003, non-state-owned investment increased by 46.4%, which was 18 percentage points higher than that of state-owned investment, indicating that the main body of investment growth has given way to independent investment by enterprises. Judging from the above economic fluctuations, after the economic growth reached 9%, the growth of non-state-owned investment began to exceed that of state-owned investment; When the economic growth is less than 9%, the growth of non-state-owned investment will be lower than that of state-owned investment. State-owned investment plays a leading role in economic start-up and contraction. When state-owned investment does start economic prosperity, non-state-owned investment will follow; When the contraction of state-owned investment ends and the prosperity ends, non-state-owned investment will quickly withdraw. State-owned investment is the operation and regulation lever of national macro-policy, while non-state-owned investment basically advances and retreats with the change of market boom cycle.
An important reason for the cyclical fluctuation of China's economy is the cyclical fluctuation of investment, which provides a policy basis for smoothing the economic cycle, reducing the economic fluctuation range and maintaining the healthy development of the economy. When the economy is prosperous, we can use various policies to limit the growth of investment (such as raising the statutory reserve ratio) to limit the further prosperity of the economy; When the economy is depressed, a series of policies can be adopted to encourage investment and drive the economy towards recovery.
2. Analysis of the causes of consumer demand
Consumption is an important part of social demand, so consumption fluctuation is also an important factor affecting national economic fluctuation. Empirical analysis shows that when consumption fluctuates 1 percentage point, the total social output value fluctuates by 0.36 percentage point in the same direction. In the actual economic operation, the change of consumption is not as rapid as that of investment, but slow, and the fluctuation of consumption lags behind the fluctuation of total social output value.
Since the reform and opening up, the contribution rate of consumption to national economic growth has been in the main position. In the 1980s, consumption played a decisive role in the economic growth rate. Since 1990s, due to the change of China's development strategy and the improvement of its development level, the role of investment and external demand has been strengthened, but the role of consumption is still dominant. And from 1979 to 1999, except 1993 and 1998, the contribution rate of investment to the economy in other years is greater than consumption. This shows that the fluctuation of consumption will have a far-reaching impact on the fluctuation of the overall economy.
The main mechanism of consumption fluctuation affecting the economic cycle is:
First of all, consumption fluctuation has an important direct impact on economic boom fluctuation. Consumption can effectively stimulate economic growth in the economic recovery period and prolong the economic prosperity period in the boom period. At the same time, consumption is an important factor to curb economic depression. When the economic cycle is in recession and depression, residents' income will decrease. However, according to Duesenberry's hypothesis of relative income, residents' consumption is rigid because of its "demonstration effect" and "ratchet effect". It will not drop immediately with the decline of income, but it will drop less or even remain unchanged, which makes the consumption demand in the total demand more stable than the investment demand, so the consumption demand has a spontaneous containment effect on the economic recession. After 1997, China's economy was once affected by deflation, the investment demand declined, and the economic growth rate was also very slow. However, the consumer demand of residents has not dropped as sharply as that of investment, so the overall economic growth rate has been maintained. At the same time, economic growth is related to marginal propensity to consume. Generally speaking, when residents' marginal propensity to consume declines, it will affect the multiplier effect and slow down economic growth; When residents' marginal propensity to consume rises, it will make the multiplier effect bigger and the economic growth rate will also increase. Residents' propensity to consume keeps pace with the economic growth rate.
Secondly, consumption fluctuation has an important indirect impact on economic boom fluctuation. When the economy is in depression, without the support of consumer demand, the economy cannot recover and prosper only by expanding investment demand. After 1997, due to the weak growth of China's consumer demand and the difficulties faced by its exports, the macro-economic control departments chose to increase government investment as an important means to stimulate the economy. Because consumer demand is the main factor driving China's economic growth. Investment without the support of consumer demand will become invalid investment, which can not guarantee the sustained, rapid and healthy development of the national economy. Therefore, the policy effect of stimulating China's economic growth by means of investment is not ideal. Because the supply and demand pattern of China's commodity market has undergone historic changes, the long-standing shortage economic pattern has been broken, the buyer's market has become increasingly obvious, and consumption fluctuations have an increasing impact on the economic cycle, which has become an important factor in achieving sound and rapid economic growth. Therefore, consumer demand can indirectly affect the macroeconomic cycle through its influence on investment demand.
From the above analysis, it can be seen that the consumption demand of Chinese residents has an important impact on China's macroeconomic cycle and has become an important factor causing cyclical fluctuations in China's economy. In China, residents' consumption demand is generally stable, and China residents have always had a fine tradition of saving. Therefore, how to stimulate residents' consumption demand and lead the economy to develop well and quickly is still a problem we are facing. In order to promote residents' consumption, the following measures can be taken: First, the government should take measures to narrow the income distribution gap of residents. The widening income distribution gap is an important reason for the decline of residents' consumption tendency, and the income of low-income people should be increased. In the field of income distribution, macro-control policies should use fiscal policies to adjust the income gap of residents and implement subsidy policies for low-income people. Second, improve the social security system, stabilize residents' expectations for the future, so that people's current consumption will not be reduced because of concerns about future security. Finally, solve the "three rural issues" and increase farmers' income. The countryside is a huge consumer market. If this market can be opened, the role of consumption in promoting economic growth will be further improved.
3. Analysis of the causes of government demand
Government demand can be mainly divided into government purchase and government investment. As an important part of direct demand, government procurement has a direct contribution to economic growth and is relatively stable. Government investment has the function of guiding the direction of social investment and is operable. After the reform and opening up, with the implementation of the "eating in different places" system and the development of local administrative decentralization, the central and local governments and state-owned enterprises have formed a pattern of sharing state investment, but state-owned enterprises are still the main body of state (including central and local) investment. However, administrative decentralization has changed the micro-foundation of economic fluctuations. Every expansion and contraction of investment is no longer decided by central planners alone, but by local governments and state-owned enterprises, forming a "reverse mechanism" for investment. The overheated economy of 1988 is mainly due to the excessive investment expansion of local governments. From the late 1980s to the mid-1990s, the investment expansion of state-owned enterprises mainly depended on bank financing, and China's economy entered the development stage of "bank financing promotion" from "planning-finance leading".
As the direct measure of government demand is the government's financial revenue and expenditure, the influence of government demand on the cyclical fluctuation of China's economy can be measured by the influence of government's financial revenue and expenditure on the economy. Government expenditure, whether for investment or consumption, is an important part of total social demand. Therefore, government expenditure has a strong regulatory effect on economic growth. Fiscal revenue has certain stability in the short term. Therefore, fiscal expenditure, that is, when the government demand increases, the government fiscal balance increases, and under the influence of the government's active fiscal policy, the economy begins to recover and expand; When the economy enters an overheated state, the government implements a tight fiscal policy, reduces fiscal expenditure, and guides the economy to resume smooth operation. When the economy declines further, the government will implement a proactive fiscal policy to lead a new round of economic cyclical fluctuations.
After 1980, the fluctuation trend of China's fiscal revenue and expenditure is basically consistent with the fluctuation trend of national income, but it lags behind slightly during the period from trough to expansion, and when the overall economy reaches its peak, the fiscal revenue and expenditure also reaches its peak. The main reason for this feature is that since the reform and opening up, with the transition of the financial system from the "separate kitchen to eat" and hierarchical management system in the early stage of reform to the tax-sharing system since 1994, the internal stability function of finance has begun to play a role, but the macro-financial regulation and control ability has declined. According to estimates, the proportion of national budget revenue in GDP has gradually decreased from 3 1.6% in 1979 to 1.9% in 1996. The proportion of economic construction expenditure in national budget expenditure decreased from 63.7% in 1978 to about 42% in 1996. The proportion of fiscal deficit in fiscal expenditure rose from 1. 1% in the sixth five-year plan period to 4.5% in the seventh five-year plan period and 8.0% in the eighth five-year plan period. The elastic coefficients corresponding to the growth rate of revenue and expenditure within the fiscal budget and the growth rate of revenue and expenditure outside the fiscal budget all reach 1:0.6. The elastic coefficients of the central part growth rate and local part growth rate in the total budget revenue and total budget expenditure reach 1:0.6 and 1:2.5 respectively. Moreover, compared with the central government, the growth of total local fiscal revenue depends more on the growth of extra-budgetary local fiscal revenue. The growth of total local fiscal expenditure depends more on the growth of local fiscal budget expenditure. Since the reform and opening up, the fiscal deficit, extra-budgetary revenue and expenditure, and the expansion of local governments and enterprises have become part of the impact sources of China's economic fluctuations.
Although the proportion of economic construction expenditure in fiscal expenditure is declining, the proportion of education, administrative expenditure and various financial subsidies is rising, and these expenditures are quite rigid. On the other hand, the impact of economic contraction and expansion on fiscal revenue has increased. At present, China is still a speed-benefit economy. When the economic growth rate is high, the economic benefits will increase, and when the economic growth rate is low, the economic benefits will decrease. When the national economy has begun to get out of the trough, it often takes some time for various benefit indicators to get out of the trough. Economic expansion, enterprise benefits increase, and fiscal revenue increases; The economy is shrinking, the benefits of enterprises are declining, and the fiscal revenue is decreasing. In the case of rigid fiscal expenditure, the change of fiscal revenue will be directly reflected in the deficit level. In this way, when the economy is expanding, the deficit will be reduced or even a fiscal surplus will appear; When the economy shrinks, the deficit will increase, and the trough of fiscal balance fluctuation will lag slightly behind the trough of overall economic fluctuation. It can be seen that the balance of fiscal revenue and expenditure has a strong synchronization with the cyclical fluctuation of the economy. It is not difficult to find that government demand, that is, fiscal expenditure, has an important impact on economic cyclical fluctuations. Due to the strong controllability of fiscal expenditure, government departments should take advantage of the situation and actively use fiscal policies to regulate and control the macro-economy to avoid economic ups and downs. Among them, China successfully achieved a "soft landing" in 1996, which is a model of the government's successful macroeconomic regulation and control.
4. Analysis of reasons for foreign demand
After the reform and opening-up, especially in the 1990s, with the closer ties between China and the world economy, China's macro-economy is increasingly influenced by the world economy, and foreign demand also has a certain impact on China's economic cycle.
Foreign demand, that is, net exports, refers to the difference between exports and imports over a period of time. Among them, the import and export volume is directly related to the dependence of a country's economy on the world economy, and also to the influence of the world economic situation on this country's economy.
After 1992, the pace of reform in China has been accelerated, and the degree of openness has been continuously strengthened. The socialist economic system is constantly moving towards marketization and pursuing the strategy of export-oriented economic development, which has further expanded China's total export volume and optimized its export structure. The expansion of exports has continuously boosted China's economic growth, while China's macroeconomic operation is increasingly influenced by the world economy. The surge in exports has led to the expansion of domestic production and a relatively high return on investment, which not only promoted the rapid growth of domestic investment, but also attracted a large number of foreign capital. During this period, influenced by foreign demand, China's economy began to expand. The expansion of export scale and the continuous introduction of foreign capital have promoted the economic development of China. China's economic growth is increasingly affected by foreign demand. China's export boom peaked at the beginning of 1995. Facing the overheating of the macro-economy, the state implemented a prudent fiscal policy and strictly controlled the investment in fixed assets, which led to a gradual decline in the export boom and a "soft landing" of the economy at 1996.
By 1997, due to the impact of the Southeast Asian financial crisis, China's foreign exports, which had just rebounded to a certain extent, were hit, and the export boom declined to a certain extent. At the same time, in order to reduce the economic damage caused by the financial crisis, Southeast Asian countries and regions have implemented currency depreciation. China government, as a responsible big country, declared that RMB would not depreciate. In this way, not only China's exports are seriously affected, but China's introduction of foreign capital is also affected. At the same time, the economic growth rate of China in 1997 was 8.7% lower than that of the previous year 1. 1 percentage point. By 1998, the economic growth rate further dropped to 7.8%, and the contribution rate of net exports to economic growth in this year was only 5. 1%. This shows that China's macro-economy has declined due to the decline in external demand.
After entering 1999, with the gradual weakening of the impact of the Asian financial crisis on China, China's exports began to rise sharply and reached the peak in 2000. However, due to the economic recession in the United States, the economic recession in other countries in the world and the decline in external demand, China's exports fell into recession after a short period of improvement. China's economic growth rate reached 7. 1% in 1999, rose to 8.0% in 2000, but decreased to 7.3% in 5438+0 in 2006. The change of economic growth rate is basically consistent with China's export cycle.
By the end of 20001,China finally concluded its negotiations with the World Trade Organization and successfully joined the WTO. This good news has an important impact on promoting China's exports. After China's entry into WTO, the tariffs and trade barriers faced by international trade for many years have been greatly reduced, paving the way for China's export. In China, after years of economic development, the quality and variety of products have been greatly improved, and the product structure has been continuously upgraded, which has provided the necessary conditions for a substantial increase in exports. At the same time, the economies of the United States and other western countries have resumed development, and foreign demand is strong. This provides a huge market for China's massive exports. China's export growth rate reached 34.6% in 2003 and 35.4% in 2004. Due to the increase of China's dependence on foreign trade, the substantial increase of exports has promoted the further improvement of China's economy. China's economic growth rate reached 9. 1% in 2003 and 9.5% in 2004. In 2005, the total import and export volume of China's goods trade reached 1422 1 billion dollars, of which 762 billion dollars were exported and 66 billion dollars were imported, ranking third in the world.
It can be seen that with the continuous improvement of China's market economy and the continuous improvement of the degree of opening to the outside world, China's dependence on foreign trade is also rising. The influence of external demand, especially exports, on the cyclical fluctuation of China's economy is gradually deepening. The prosperity of export will drive the sustained rise of macro-economy, on the contrary, the decline of export level will also affect the macro-economic level.
Second, the reasons for China's economic cycle fluctuations, total supply analysis
The total supply shock mainly includes the following three aspects:
1. The influence of production technology innovation
China is still in the process of transition from planned economy to market economy, and the construction of market system has made great progress, but it is still not perfect. There are still some shortcomings in the direct analysis of China's data with the standard RBC model. Nevertheless, Chen, Gong Liutang and (2004) used the standard RBC model to simulate the economic data of China in the past 50 years (1952 ~ 200 1), and thought that 80% of China's economic fluctuations in the past 50 years could be explained by real shocks such as technological shocks and government expenditure shocks.
Since the reform and opening up, China's technological progress has played a great role in promoting economic growth. Technological innovation is closely related to the fluctuation of economic cycle: First, with the development of modern economy, technological innovation always plays the role of starting and inducing. Enterprise behavior is the pursuit of profit maximization, enterprises should provide competitive products through technological innovation, innovative products and processes, so as to obtain greater profits. Only by continuous innovation can enterprises have sustained vitality. The continuous formation, appearance, diffusion and transfer of enterprise technological innovation have promoted the sustainable development of economy. The sustained economic development has also prepared investment conditions and market demand for technological innovation. Second, technological innovation, technology diffusion and technology transfer are accompanied by an increase in investment. At the same time, the transfer of technological innovation achievements develops from individual enterprise technological innovation to industrial technological innovation until the technological progress of related industries; From a place to a vast space. This growing innovation trend caused by technological innovation, imitation, diffusion and transfer has pushed economic development to a high level. Third, when an innovative technology is widely spread, its technology enters a high-yield stage, at which time enterprises can generally only get average profits. This reflects that this kind of innovation has matured, its advantages have weakened, and new innovation is needed to promote economic development. Fourth, in the stagnation stage, there are actually innovations, knowledge accumulation, new scientific and technological achievements and new innovations brewing. Only when technological innovations are constantly emerging and accompanied by corresponding investments can economic development push to a new stage and level. In a word, technological shock (especially emphasized by RBC theory) runs through the phenomenon of China's economic cycle and is a major factor of China's economic fluctuation.
Our government has always attached great importance to the development of science and technology, especially after the reform and opening up, it has further increased its technical input and introduced a lot of foreign technology and management experience, which has shortened the gap with the international advanced level in industrial technology, effectively promoted the development of technology, enhanced the competitiveness of products and effectively promoted the improvement of labor productivity; Further strengthen scientific and technological improvement and applied research, strive to improve the scientific and technological content of products, pay more attention to basic science, and accumulate stamina for theoretical research and scientific and technological development. After years of hard work, the level of science and technology in China has been greatly improved. During this period, China's economic cycle changed from "ups and downs" before the reform and opening up to "high-flat" since the reform and opening up. The fluctuation range tends to be flat, the average potential continues to improve, and the expansion length continues to extend, which is closely related to the long-term impact of technological progress on the economic cycle. When the fluctuation of economic cycle changes from contraction stage to expansion stage, the invention and application of major science and technology can greatly improve productivity and become an important factor to promote economic growth through the infiltration and influence of the three elements of productivity; In the expansion stage, it will become an important strengthening factor. In the late 1970s, China set off an upsurge of reform and opening up. At this time, technical exchanges with other countries were gradually strengthened, and a number of foreign advanced technologies and equipment were introduced, which played a key role in China's prosperity in the first economic cycle after the reform and opening up. In the mid-1980s, the state formulated and implemented the "863 Plan", focusing on the research and development of modern high technology. Under this influence, China got rid of the recession of the last economic cycle and entered a new economic cycle. 199 1 year, China decided to speed up the development of 1 1 high-tech industries, which were included in the "torch plan", and 53 national high-tech development zones were opened one after another, forming 7 high-tech industry-intensive areas. Coupled with China's breakthrough progress in five high-tech fields, such as biology, information, automation, energy and new materials, the production efficiency has been greatly improved. This is the main driving factor for China's economic cycle fluctuation to get rid of the recession in the late 1980s and enter a new round of expansion, and it is also the continuous improvement of cyclical potential.
In 2002, China's economy entered a new cycle, and the economic driving force of the new cycle, that is, the positive impact of technology, was the upgrading of industrial structure represented by real estate and automobiles, driven by the upgrading of consumption structure. The outstanding performance of the upgrading of consumption structure is: the consumption structure of residents has been upgraded from the stage of "food, clothing and use" to the stage of "housing and transportation" to meet the needs of a well-off society; After upgrading from a small durable consumer product of 100 yuan to a medium durable consumer product of 1000 yuan, it will be upgraded to a large durable consumer product of 10,000 yuan, especially a few hundred thousand yuan. This has promoted the upgrading of industrial structure, directly promoted the development of real estate and automobile industries, and further promoted the development of various related industries, especially basic industries. The upgrading of consumption structure and industrial structure represented by real estate and automobiles is the result of the improvement of per capita income level and the acceleration of industrialization, urbanization and marketization in China, which has affected economic growth and economic fluctuation. The upgrading of industrial structure, represented by real estate and automobiles, has a broad and lasting role in promoting the whole economic growth. But at the same time, they have a high growth effect on the whole economy, and also have the characteristics of strong volatility. This is because the technical impact factors, such as industrial structure upgrading represented by real estate and automobiles, will have amplification effect or over-expansion effect in its transmission process, and then will encounter various constraints, such as demand constraints, especially resource constraints.
2. Impact of agricultural product fluctuation
Although agricultural factors have no direct influence on China's economic cycle fluctuations, they are the basic factors that affect economic fluctuations, which are determined by China's agricultural economy occupying a large proportion in the national economy and the dual economic structure. The transmission mechanism of agricultural fluctuation to national economic cycle fluctuation is that agricultural fluctuation affects investment fluctuation, and investment fluctuation affects industrial fluctuation and then affects national economic fluctuation. The influence of agriculture on economic fluctuation is mainly realized through agricultural products (grain), raw materials, labor force and market. Agricultural products are the basic food source of China people and the main raw material source of light industry. The fluctuation of agricultural production in China, especially the growth rate of grain output, is closely related to the fluctuation of economic cycle. If there is a bumper harvest of agricultural products, sufficient market supply and relatively stable prices, which have little impact on the cost of industrial products, enterprises will increase investment and expand production, and farmers will automatically transfer their funds and labor to industries or other non-agricultural sectors, thus promoting economic prosperity. On the contrary, the effect is the opposite. The failure of grain or other agricultural products will inevitably affect the investment and industrial production at present and in the future, and the fluctuation of agricultural products production is obviously "ahead of schedule"
Since the reform and opening up, China's grain production has obvious cyclical fluctuations, but it is more frequent than macroeconomic fluctuations. * * * has experienced seven cycles, three more than macroeconomic fluctuations. The fluctuation of grain output is the first cycle 1978- 1980, the second cycle1981-kloc-0/985, and the third cycle 1986- 1988. 1992- 1994 is the fifth cycle, 1995- 1997 is the sixth cycle, and 1998-200 1 is the seventh cycle. The average fluctuation period of grain production is 3-4 years, which is a typical short-term fluctuation type. Grain output fluctuates greatly, but it tends to slow down gradually. The fluctuation of grain output is obviously ahead of GDP, with an average lead of 1-3 years.
Although the fluctuation of grain output growth rate is not the decisive factor of China's economic fluctuation, agricultural production, especially grain production, plays an obvious fundamental role in national economic development. When grain production is reduced and supply and demand are tight, food prices will rise, which will often lead to inflation and seriously restrict the whole economy. Therefore, ensuring the effective supply of agricultural products, especially grain, is an important guarantee for the sound and rapid development of the national economy.
3. The influence of energy and raw materials
Energy is an important material basis for national economic development and an important guarantee factor for national economic security. With the rapid development of global economy today, the supporting role of energy in economic development is particularly prominent. Energy, like technological progress and agricultural production, is an important aspect of the total social supply. The analysis of energy consumption in China can reflect the reasons of economic cycle fluctuation from one side.
Since the reform and opening up, the growth rate of energy consumption in China has fluctuated obviously, and four complete cycles are basically consistent with the economic cycle. The first, second and third periods are: 1978 ~ 198 1 year,1982 ~1986,65438. The fourth cycle of economic fluctuation is 199 1 ~ 1999, while the fourth cycle of energy consumption is 199 1 ~ 1998, with a difference of only one year. In the first, second and third cycles, the change law of GDP growth rate and energy consumption growth rate is completely consistent; In the fourth cycle, the change law of GDP growth rate and energy consumption growth rate is not completely consistent. After entering 2 1 century, the growth rate of GDP is relatively flat, but the growth rate of energy consumption is on the rise.
On the one hand, China should solve the contradiction of insufficient energy supply and demand, on the other hand, it should solve the structural contradiction of energy. Because of the unreasonable energy structure, it will have a certain restrictive effect on the economy.
Source: /Freepaper/33703.htm