Keywords: RMB internationalization
With the rapid economic growth of China, the continuous stability of RMB exchange rate and the important role played by China in global economic growth, the international reputation of RMB has been greatly improved, and the RMB has been widely circulated in neighboring countries or regions, and its internationalization process has begun. The author thinks that the strategic choice of RMB internationalization should be based on China's national conditions, learn from other ways of currency internationalization, and steadily advance the process of RMB internationalization in a gradual way.
First, the status quo of RMB internationalization
The internationalization of RMB is a long-term strategy. As a payment and settlement currency, RMB has been accepted by many countries. In fact, RMB has become a hard currency in many countries or regions in Southeast Asia. In recent years, the circulation and use of RMB in neighboring countries can be divided into three types:
First, in Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, South Korea and other countries. The circulation and use of RMB is mainly developed with the rise of tourism. Every year, a large number of tourists come to these countries for sightseeing, so there are more and more shopping shops in these countries that can buy goods with RMB, and money exchange shops and banks that can exchange RMB for their own currencies have also begun to appear. The author traveled to South Korea and found that famous shopping malls, hotels and guesthouses in South Korea announce the exchange rates of RMB and local currency, local currency and US dollar every day. Renminbi, like local currency and US dollar, can be used for payment and settlement. Almost all commercial banks in South Korea handle the exchange business between RMB and Korean won, RMB and US dollar, and can also exchange RMB into all hard currencies such as euro, Japanese yen and British pound at any time. Especially on February 29th last year, at 65438, China UnionPay announced that it would officially open the acceptance business of UnionPay cards in Korea, Thailand and Singapore from June 65438+ 10. So that cardholders can use UnionPay cards to shop in Korea, Thailand and Singapore, and they can also withdraw a certain amount of domestic currency from ATMs in these countries. On June 5438+February, 2005, China UnionPay card ATM acceptance service was first opened in Germany, France, Spain, Belgium and Luxemburg. All this shows that the international status of RMB has been further improved and the internationalization of RMB has been further promoted.
The second is in the border areas such as China-Vietnam, China-Russia, China-DPRK, China-Myanmar and China-Laos. The circulation and use of RMB is mainly accompanied by the development of border trade, border trade, folk trade and border tourism. As the settlement currency and payment currency, RMB has been widely used in these countries and can be freely exchanged with the currencies of these countries. To a certain extent, RMB has become a de facto regional currency. In the fair trade market of Luo Jin-Xianfeng Free Economic and Trade Zone in North Korea, local stall owners are used to pricing and settlement in RMB, whether they sell goods from China or local products from North Korea. In almost all the border cities of North Korea, even nationwide, RMB has become one of the currencies for people to settle payment for goods, trade commodities and serve as hard currency reserves. In Vietnam, Russia, North Korea, Myanmar and other countries, most tourism-related industries, departments and commodity retail industries accept RMB. And announce the exchange rate between RMB and domestic currency on a daily basis. With the further expansion of economic and trade exchanges between China and neighboring countries and regions and the continuous development of tourism, the circulation and use of RMB are more and more extensive, the scope of RMB regionalization will be further expanded, and the status of regional currency will be consolidated day by day, thus promoting the internationalization of RMB as much as possible.
Third, in Hong Kong and Macao. Due to the close economic ties between the mainland and Hong Kong and Macao, the number of people visiting relatives and exchanging visits is increasing every year, and the exchange and use of RMB is quite common. According to the data, more than 65,438+000 money exchange shops and nearly 20 banks have opened RMB exchange business in Hong Kong. Many hotels, shopping malls, especially tourist shopping spots, quote the exchange rate of RMB and Hong Kong dollars and accept RMB directly. Since Hong Kong dollars can be converted into US dollars at any time, in fact, RMB can also be converted into US dollars at any time through the intermediary of Hong Kong dollars. According to experts' estimation, the RMB currently circulating in Hong Kong has reached more than 70 billion yuan, which is second only to the Hong Kong dollar.
According to the investigation and statistics of researchers of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, the annual cross-border flow of RMB is about 654.38 billion yuan, and the overseas stock is about 20 billion yuan. China's RMB supply (M2) is about 2 trillion yuan, which means that overseas RMB accounts for about 1% of the total RMB. It can be seen that RMB has been widely accepted by neighboring countries or regions in China to a certain extent, and the internationalization of RMB is in the stage of gradual development.
Second, the background analysis of RMB internationalization
(1) The economic strength and comprehensive national strength have been continuously enhanced, and the international status of the RMB has been continuously improved.
In his speech at the opening ceremony of the Fortune Global Forum in 2005, President Hu Jintao said: "Since the founding of New China, especially since 1978, China has undergone unprecedented profound changes. During the 26 years from 1978 to 2004, China's GDP increased from147.3 billion US dollars to1649.4 billion US dollars. The total import and export volume increased from $20.6 billion to1154.8 billion, with an average annual growth rate of more than 16%. China's foreign exchange reserves increased from 1 USD and 6.7 billion USD to 609.9 billion USD. " These data show that China's comprehensive national strength has been significantly enhanced. Experts generally believe that China's economy will maintain a relatively fast development speed in the next 10 year, which has laid a solid foundation for RMB to become a safe currency for all countries and regions in the world. China has implemented a prudent monetary policy for a long time, which has established a high reputation for the RMB and is well received by neighboring countries and regions.
(2) The stability of the value of RMB has created a prerequisite for promoting the internationalization of RMB.
China has always implemented a prudent monetary policy. In recent years, remarkable achievements have been made in controlling inflation and maintaining the stability of the value of RMB inside and outside. During the Asian financial crisis, the currencies of other countries depreciated sharply, while the RMB exchange rate remained stable, which prevented the further expansion and deepening of the crisis and laid a solid and reliable credit foundation for the RMB. It has created a prerequisite for promoting the internationalization of the RMB.
(3) The China Municipal Government attaches great importance to promoting the internationalization of RMB and takes positive steps.
In September, 2003, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange promulgated the Law on Foreign Exchange Control in Border Trade, which allows RMB to be used for settlement in border trade, and encourages commercial banks in border areas of China to establish correspondent bank relations with banks in neighboring countries and regions to settle border trade through banks. This provision has a positive impact on the internationalization of RMB. One of the important reasons why RMB is adopted by neighboring countries or regions is border trade, and the further development of border trade will promote the regionalization of RMB. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange has issued corresponding laws and regulations according to the actual situation in border areas, which will eliminate the worries of residents in neighboring countries or regions and promote the circulation of RMB in neighboring countries or regions.
(D) The establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area provides a broad space for the overseas circulation of RMB.
The establishment of FTZ will form an economic region with a population of 65.438+0.8 billion, a GDP of 3-4 trillion US dollars and a total trade volume of 654.38+0.23 trillion US dollars. The establishment of FTA will increase ASEAN's exports to China by 48% and China's exports to ASEAN by 55%. The rapid development of trade and investment has given birth to the overseas demand for RMB. On the premise of stable RMB exchange rate, some countries and regions with frequent trade and investment with China and large amount are willing to accept RMB as the pricing and settlement currency. For example, in the trade of Vietnam, Thailand, Myanmar and other countries, the RMB has actually become one of the settlement currencies.
(5) The widespread circulation and use of RMB in Hong Kong has provided useful experience for the internationalization of RMB.
On June 5438+065438+ 10, 2003, the People's Bank of China announced that it would provide clearing services for banks handling RMB deposits, remittances and bank cards in Hong Kong. Mainland residents can use RMB bank cards issued by mainland banks to make consumption payments in Hong Kong and withdraw cash in Hong Kong dollars from ATMs. Hong Kong residents can also use RMB bank cards issued by Hong Kong banks to go to the Mainland for consumer payment and withdraw RMB cash from ATMs. These measures and policies have attempted the overseas circulation of RMB and provided useful experience for the overseas circulation of RMB.
Thirdly, the enlightenment of multi-currency internationalization to RMB internationalization.
By comparing various ways of currency internationalization, we can learn from the experience and lessons of other countries' currency internationalization, reduce the risks in the process of RMB internationalization, and make RMB internationalization proceed in a planned and step-by-step manner. So far, there are three main ways of currency internationalization.
The first way, the internationalization of the US dollar and the British pound, is first determined by the economic base, and then determined by international agreements with the political and economic advantages of big countries. Both the US dollar and the British pound have evolved from the central currency to the international currency through the international monetary system.
The second way is to cultivate regional currency strategically and in a planned way, and then develop it into an international currency, that is, the euro-style way. The regional economic integration of EU is the result of the intentional promotion of government policies, and the birth of Euro is the result of coordination and cooperation among countries in the region, which is an innovation of currency internationalization. It is of great significance to promote the internationalization of RMB by establishing regional key currencies and regional cooperation.
The third way is to gradually develop into an international currency through several stages of currency convertibility. Which is the yen route. It can be said that many newly industrialized countries are internationalizing their currencies in this way.
Fourth, policy suggestions: the choice of countermeasures for RMB internationalization.
The experience of currency internationalization in various countries is worth learning. At present, the internationalization of RMB is a natural development process based on the actual economy and trade, and it is a reflection of China's sustained economic growth after the reform and opening up. The author thinks that in the strategic choice of RMB internationalization, we should design the best scheme according to China's national conditions and the experience of other countries' currency internationalization, and steadily promote the process of RMB internationalization.
First, actively create political and economic conditions for RMB internationalization. China's economy should continue to grow steadily, maintain a leading position in the Asian region, and the value of RMB should remain relatively stable, which is the basis of RMB internationalization. At the same time, strengthen exchanges with high-level governments of neighboring countries and regions, and become an important participant and promoter of international economic activities. So as to dispel the worries and doubts of neighboring countries and regions about China. Further strengthen direct investment and trade with neighboring countries and countries around the world, improve financial services, strengthen statistical monitoring of RMB cross-border circulation, and set up a pilot zone for RMB free exchange. This is an important force to promote the internationalization of the RMB.
Second, further relax the entry and exit restrictions of RMB. It is suggested that the policy restrictions on the entry and exit of RMB should be gradually lifted in the border areas of China, Vietnam, Laos and Myanmar, so as to promote RMB to become a regional international payment means and a regional international reserve asset under legal conditions. The author thinks that canceling the policy restrictions on RMB entry and exit in some border areas is conducive to the further development of bilateral economic and trade exchanges; It is conducive to solving the authenticity of export foreign exchange collection and export verification, curbing the behavior of "spreading banks and underground banks", further standardizing border trade settlement, and thus effectively promoting the internationalization of RMB.
Third, establish a pilot zone for RMB convertibility. It is suggested to choose border areas bordering countries with high recognition of RMB. For example, in the border areas of Guangxi and Yunnan, special RMB management policies are implemented, and RMB funds held by residents and non-residents of the two places can be converted into freely convertible currencies or currencies of neighboring countries through bank channels. At the same time, we will conduct statistical monitoring on RMB exchange, cross-border flow and exchange rate changes, so as to timely and accurately grasp the acceptance and use of RMB by neighboring countries and regions. Through the operation of the pilot area, we will accumulate experience for the internationalization of RMB.
Fourth, the state adopts policies to encourage and protect the overseas circulation of RMB. First, take the initiative to use RMB in foreign economic exchanges. When conditions are ripe, enterprises, institutions and other units in China can take the initiative to use RMB in foreign trade and other economic exchanges. In the early stage of development, we can consider giving preferential treatment to foreign investors who are willing to use RMB in price. Second, according to the objective needs of China's economic development and reform and opening up, we should selectively and step by step relax the restrictions on cross-border capital transactions, select those capital projects that have a positive effect on promoting economic growth and improving the level of opening up and can control the negative impact, pilot them first, gradually expand them, and promote the internationalization of the RMB.
Fifth, we should further solve the problem of RMB remittance abroad. If there is no smooth channel for RMB to flow back to China, it will be difficult for neighboring countries or regions to use RMB as a regional reserve currency. In addition to continuing to allow RMB settlement in border trade, China can be further allowed to use RMB settlement in general trade with neighboring countries or regions. In addition, we can consider allowing neighboring countries to buy China's government bonds in RMB, or make direct investment in China. This means that China will not only expand the use of RMB from border trade to general trade and national debt trading, but also improve the policy that foreign residents can only invest in China with foreign exchange. China has realized the convertibility of RMB under current account and part of capital account, and RMB will eventually be convertible and internationalized, which will further enhance the status of RMB in the international monetary system. With the deepening of economic globalization, the development of China is becoming a new impetus for the development of the world economy, which will also bring new important opportunities for the development of China, and the RMB will be internationalized.