1. The international situation is generally peaceful, relaxed and stable, but local wars, turmoil and tensions have intensified.
At present, relations among major powers continue to be mainly based on cooperation and remain relatively stable. The contradiction between the United States and Europe and the United States and Russia has eased due to the Iraq war, although the deep-seated contradictions and differences between the two sides have not been eliminated; Sino-US relations are facing new challenges in Taiwan Province Province and economic and trade issues, but the areas of cooperation and common interests between the two sides are still expanding, and the interdependence in bilateral relations is further strengthened; The strategic cooperative partnership between China and Russia has been further consolidated and the cooperative relationship has been deepened; Although the political relations between China and Japan are greatly disturbed by the attitude of Japanese political circles towards World War II and territorial disputes between the two sides, economic and trade cooperation, cultural exchanges and non-governmental exchanges between the two sides are still in full swing, which shows that the foundation of Sino-Japanese friendly cooperation is deep and mature, and the general trend of bilateral relations is not dominated by local problems. Maintaining a positive trend in Sino-Indian political and economic relations is of great significance to promoting regional peace and development. The relative stability of relations among major powers reflects that peace and development, as the mainstream of today's world, are irreversible.
However, the current international situation also has a rather grim side. Regional wars and violent conflicts have broken out one after another, and local turmoil and tension have intensified. The world today is far from peaceful, and the problems facing peace and development are becoming more and more urgent. Local wars, turmoil and tension have seriously affected world peace, stability and development from three aspects. First, it has damaged or even destroyed the peace and development environment in the relevant regions to varying degrees. This not only makes people's lives in some areas in dire straits, but also widens the development level of these areas and other parts of the world, further aggravating the imbalance of world development. Second, it indirectly affects the development environment of the whole world. Today's high international oil prices are largely caused by international conflicts and the uncertainty of international geopolitical factors. Third, it has increased the hidden dangers in the relations between major powers, thus threatening the peace and stability of the whole world. Nowadays, many local conflicts and regional disputes occur in international geopolitics and geopolitical sensitive areas, which directly or indirectly affect the strategic interests of major countries in these areas. In fact, behind most regional conflicts today, there is interest competition among different powers. The increase and intensification of regional conflicts and wars will inevitably lead to the complication of the interests of major powers, have a negative impact on the relations between major powers, and may even lead to the intensification of contradictions among major powers in some cases, which is not conducive to world peace and stability.
Second, hegemonism is the main source of the current world turmoil; Although American hegemonism has been frustrated in Iraq, its vitality has not been harmed, and the momentum of the United States seeking unipolar world hegemony will continue for quite some time; The struggle for international order between unipolar and multipolar is still the main line of international struggle.
Most hot issues in today's world, such as the aftermath of the Iraq war, the continuation and escalation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the tension on the Korean Peninsula, are fundamentally closely related to hegemonic intervention, although they involve various complicated factors. It is an indisputable fact that hegemonism directly or indirectly leads to, aggravates or deepens conflicts, turmoil and tensions in many regions of the world today.
At present, due to certain setbacks in Iraq, the tactics and technology of American hegemonic strategy have been adjusted. The dilemma faced by the United States in post-war governance in Iraq exceeded the original imagination of the Bush administration. After the Iraq war, American plans to quickly stabilize the situation in Iraq, transform Iraqi society with American democracy, and divert a large number of American strategic forces from Iraq for other purposes not only failed one after another, but also had to face various problems and pressures brought about by the Iraq war, such as the continuous terrorist attacks and violent incidents in Iraq, the rising number of American casualties, the scandal of American prisoner abuse, and the inability to find legal and effective reasons for launching the Iraq war. With the help of the United Nations and the international community, the United States eased unilateralism. However, so far, the momentum of American hegemony has not been fundamentally curbed. Although the change in the attitude of the United States on Iraq and other issues has exposed that it is difficult for the United States to go it alone in the world, unlike the Vietnam War, the setback in Iraq has not hurt the United States, and it has not shaken the strength base on which the United States relies to promote power politics. It is also difficult for the Bush administration to comprehensively reflect on its hegemonic strategy and learn from it fundamentally.
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No matter which party wins this election, the foreign strategy of the United States will maintain a certain continuity, and some basic features will not change fundamentally in the short to medium term. First, the United States seeks institutional and legal protection for its world hegemony, and its strategic goal of establishing a unipolar world order will not change. Although the Democratic Party will be different from the current party and government in strengthening American world hegemony, it is the consensus of the two parties in the United States to strive for the maximum institutionalization and legalization of American world hegemony and establish a new world order centered on American interests. Second, the United States will not change its policy of strengthening control over sensitive areas in international geopolitics. The United States has always attached importance to the significance of geopolitical factors in the international strategic balance. In recent years, in view of the new characteristics of the international situation, the United States is comprehensively and systematically adjusting its global strategic deployment in order to provide better geographical support and guarantee for its new hegemonic strategy. NATO's eastward expansion plan, the Greater Middle East reconstruction plan and the Asia-Pacific military deployment adjustment plan are the three most important components of the US global strategic deployment adjustment. Geographically, these three parts cover the whole Eurasian continent, integrate the strategic points of the Atlantic Ocean, the Pacific Ocean and even the Indian Ocean, and form a situation in which the two wings (Europe and Asia-Pacific) are integrated and the central part breaks through (the crescent zone from the Middle East, Central Asia to South Asia) and echo each other. The adjustment of the global strategic deployment of the United States is intended to kill four birds with one arrow, namely, rectifying Muslim countries, containing Europe, blocking Russia and keeping an eye on China. The rotation of American government may affect the implementation of American global strategic adjustment in some local and specific steps, but it is unlikely to touch its overall framework. Third, it is difficult to change the trend that the United States relies on military superiority to step up its struggle for the commanding heights of international strategy. At present, American military spending accounts for half of the world's military spending, and the most prominent aspect of American superpower status is military. In the process of pursuing hegemonic strategy, the United States is sparing no effort to take advantage of the opportunity seized in the new military revolution in the world, comprehensively strengthen the mobile response capability of the US military and expand its strategic advantage. In August this year, US President Bush announced that about 70,000 US ground troops stationed in Western Europe and the Asia-Pacific region will be gradually adjusted in the next 10 year to meet the needs of the 2 1 century war. The asymmetric advantage of the United States in military technology and capability compared with other countries in the world is the premise and guarantee for its global strategic adjustment. The Democratic Party may be more cautious in using force than the Bush administration, but the special significance of military superiority in the process of pursuing hegemonic strategy in the United States will not be ignored.
Third, international terrorism has rebounded strongly, and the international anti-terrorism struggle is grim; The limitations and disadvantages of American anti-terrorism strategy to the international anti-terrorism struggle are further revealed; The problem of double standards in the international anti-terrorism struggle reflects the internal differentiation tendency of the international anti-terrorism front.
Since the beginning of this year, there have been some new trends in the international anti-terrorism situation. First of all, there has been a new rebound in terrorist activities, and the complexity and arduousness of combating terrorism have become more prominent. The frequency of terrorist attacks has increased, and the scope of activities and the scale of attacks have expanded. Spain, Russia and other places suffered serious terrorist attacks, which shocked the world.
Secondly, it exposes the limitations and disadvantages of American anti-terrorism strategy in the international anti-terrorism struggle. After the "9. 1 1" incident, the Bush administration launched two "preemptive" wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, which not only failed to deter terrorism, but made the United States and the world safer. On the contrary, Iraq has become another breeding center of terrorism, and terrorist activities have intensified. The "war on terror" has caused a strange circle of "the more you fight, the more you fear, and the more you fight." This phenomenon has a direct causal relationship with several fundamental problems in the US anti-terrorism strategy. First, the anti-terrorism motive is impure and is used for hegemony. The Iraq war is a typical example. Iraq has nothing to do with international terrorism, but now it has become a hotbed of terrorism. The fundamental reason is that the United States has made "unwarranted" accusations against Iraq on the issues of terrorism and weapons of mass destruction, forcibly launched a war of aggression aimed at realizing its hegemonic plan in the Greater Middle East, and aroused strong anti-American sentiments in Iraqi society and the Arab world. The second is to equate the fight against terrorism with a military struggle, and treat the symptoms rather than the root cause. After the "9. 1 1" incident, President Bush said that American and international terrorism have entered a state of long-term war, which is really nonsense. No matter how cruel and harmful the means are, terrorist attacks are still transnational criminal activities in essence. To effectively combat terrorism, we should rely more on the resources and means of the judicial, public security, intelligence and financial systems than military means. Eliminating the root causes of terrorism requires the cooperation of economic and social policies. Unless there is another motive, simply equating the fight against terrorism with war will not only be far-fetched, but also hurt a large number of innocent people and make it difficult to touch the social foundation on which terrorism depends. Third, the United States confused the Palestinian-Israeli issue with international counter-terrorism, which not only prompted Palestine and Israel to continue to fight violence with violence, but also aggravated the anti-American sentiment in the Islamic world and was used by international terrorist forces.
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Verb (abbreviation of verb) The influence of the changing trend of the international situation on China
For our country, the most important problem in evaluating the current international situation is how to understand the influence of the international environment on the important strategic opportunity period in the process of building a well-off society in an all-round way. This involves not only the judgment of the current situation, but also the understanding of some deep-seated problems in the long-term changing trend of the world today.
First of all, on the whole, the current international situation is still a national development strategy for China, which is more opportunities than challenges and is conducive to building a well-off society in an all-round way in China. The characteristics of the times with the theme of peace and development, the trend of multipolarization in the world, economic globalization and a new wave of scientific and technological revolution have provided great impetus and opportunities for the development of China, which is long-term and sustainable. As long as we persist in taking economic construction as the center and adhering to the basic national policy of reform and opening up, these opportunities will continue to promote China's economic construction and social development.
Secondly, the characteristics of current international contradictions, the adjustment direction of the world strategic pattern, the changing trend of international geopolitics and various problems in the process of economic globalization have not weakened, but strengthened the cornerstone position and significance of national sovereignty in international relations. In order to maintain and strive for a more favorable position in the process of solving these problems, we must clearly understand the core position and basic value of national sovereignty in national interests. In order to grasp the initiative in the complex and changeable international contradictions and increasingly fierce international competition and promote the establishment of a more just and reasonable international order, we must persist in and advocate seeking common ground while reserving differences, seeking common ground while reserving differences and win-win cooperation.
Thirdly, the problem of Taiwan Province Province has an increasingly negative impact on China's maintenance and utilization of important strategic opportunities, which has become the biggest hidden danger of China's national security in this century. Taiwan-related diplomacy is safeguarding China's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and the task of dealing with all kinds of emergencies created by the "Taiwan independence" separatist forces in cross-strait relations is increasing day by day. Although the US military actively adjusts its military deployment in the Asia-Pacific region to serve its global strategy, it objectively complicates the environment for China to solve the Taiwan Province issue. In the face of challenges, China must constantly develop itself, improve its comprehensive national strength, including economic strength and military strength, actively promote the new military revolution with China characteristics, and make our army construction more suitable for the requirements of future wars.
Finally, the prosperity of the world economy and the rapid growth of China's economy have increased the world's demand for various resources, at the same time, they have also accelerated the adjustment of the distribution pattern of world economic benefits, and increased the friction between the countries concerned in competing for resources and markets and solving ecological and environmental problems. This makes China face greater pressure in the process of future development and opening up, and puts forward higher requirements for China to continue to participate in international competition. China needs to further forge ahead in its own economic growth mode and foreign cooperation mode, hold high the banner of peace, development and cooperation, actively deal with these problems, and properly handle the relationship between safeguarding China's own interests and promoting the interests of all mankind.