Chairman Mao taught us: "within the scope of production struggle and scientific experiment, human beings are always developing, and nature is always developing, and will never stop at the same level." Some people think that the world climate has not changed during the period of human history. This idealistic judgment has been denied by the historical records of our country.
In China's historical documents, there are abundant records of meteorology and phenology in past dynasties, but unfortunately they are scattered. This paper makes a preliminary analysis of the materials in hand, hoping to write the main trend outline of climate change in the past five thousand years.
In the East Asian monsoon region, the change of rainfall tends to be extreme, while the change of temperature can affect the growth of crops in winter and spring. The winter temperature in China is mainly controlled by Siberian cold air, and the fluctuation is relatively uniform. Therefore, this paper takes winter temperature as an indicator of climate change.
Nearly five thousand years, according to the nature of materials, can be divided into the following four periods.
Archaeological period (about 3000 BC-1100)
Excavation of banpo village site near Xi 'an (belonging to Yangshao culture, determined by 14C isotope, about 5600-6080 years ago) and Yin Ruins in Anyang, Henan Province (about1400-100 BC) showed that there were bamboo rats and wild animals hunted at that time. In addition, it can be seen from the Oracle Bone Inscriptions left by the Yin Dynasty that the rice planted in Anyang was about a month earlier than now. A carbonized bamboo joint was found in the Longshan cultural site excavated in Licheng County, Shandong Province. Some pottery looks like a bamboo joint. This shows that in the late Neolithic period, bamboo was distributed in the Yellow River basin as far as the eastern coast. According to these facts, we can assume that the northern boundary of bamboo distribution has retreated southward by about 1-3 latitude since 5000. Comparing the temperatures in the lower reaches of the Yellow River and the Yangtze River, it can be said that Yangshao 5000 years ago to Yinxu 3000 years ago was a mild climate in China, which was about 2℃ higher than the current annual average temperature and 3-5℃ higher than the average temperature in normal months.
Phenological period (BC 1 100-AD 1400)
People should know that in a year, cold comes and summer goes, often with the naked eye to see, such as frost and snow, rivers freezing, trees sprouting, flowering and fruiting, migratory birds coming in spring and going in autumn, and so on. This is phenology. Phenology can also be said to be meteorology and climatology in the era without observation instruments. The working people in our country began this observation as early as 1 1 century BC, and accumulated rich data for 3000 years.
Many Chinese characters in China are represented by hieroglyphics. In the early years of the Zhou Dynasty (starting from BC 1066, with the capital in Haojiang near Xi 'an), the names of clothes, utensils, books, furniture and musical instruments all started with "bamboo", indicating that these things were originally made of bamboo. It can be seen that bamboo was widely planted in the Yellow River basin at the beginning of the Zhou Dynasty, but now it is not. During the Shang and Zhou Dynasties, the working people in the Yellow River valley were engaged in agriculture and animal husbandry. For them, the season operation is very important. People use various methods to determine the vernal equinox as the beginning period of agricultural management. At that time, people in Shandong coastal areas observed the first arrival of swallows every year to determine the vernal equinox, but now swallows only reach the lower reaches of the Yangtze River on March 22nd. The annual average temperature difference between Tancheng and Shanghai in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River is 65438 0.5℃, and the average temperature difference in the first month is 4.6℃. This result is consistent with the results obtained by the method of bamboo distribution change in archaeological period.
At the beginning of the Zhou Dynasty, the warm climate quickly deteriorated, and the Hanjiang River was frozen twice in 903 BC and 897 BC. However, it was warm again in the Spring and Autumn Period (770-48 BC1). It is often mentioned in Zuo Zhuan that in winter in Shandong, there is no ice in the freezer. In the middle of the Zhou Dynasty, plum trees could grow everywhere in the lower reaches of the Yellow River basin. Mei was mentioned five times in The Book of Songs. In Qin Feng, there is a saying called "What is the end of the South China? There is a poem with plums. Zhong Nanshan lies in the south of Xi. Now there are no plum trees, whether wild or cultivated. Moreover, in the Shang and Zhou Dynasties, plums were widely used to harmonize diet, because there was no vinegar at that time. This shows the universality of plum trees. During the Warring States, Qin and Han Dynasties, the climate continued to be warm. In the early Qing Dynasty, Zhang Biao studied the phenological data in the Spring and Autumn Annals of Lushi in Qin Dynasty, and thought that the phenology in the early spring of Qin Dynasty was three weeks earlier than that in the early Qing Dynasty. Sima Qian in Han Dynasty described the distribution of cash crops in historical records, such as oranges in Jiangling (Sichuan), mulberries in Qilu (Shandong), bamboos in Weichuan (Shaanxi) and lacquerware in Chen Xia (now southern Henan). The northern boundary of these subtropical plants has been pushed farther north than it is now. In 65438 BC+065438 BC+00 BC, the Yellow River burst in Zanzi, and bamboo baskets and stones were cut down in Qiyuan, Henan, which shows that bamboo in Qiyuan, Henan was flourishing at that time.
In the Eastern Han Dynasty, that is, at the beginning of A.D., the weather in China tended to be cold, with several severe winters. In Luoyang, the capital of China, frost and snow appeared in late spring, but the cold time was not long. At that time, oranges and tangerines in southern Henan were still very common. Until the Three Kingdoms period, the oranges planted by Cao Cao (A.D. 155-220) in Tongquetai (now southwest of Linzhang, Henan) could not bear fruit, and the climate was even colder than that in Sima Qian's period. Cao Pi, the son of Cao Cao, went to Guangling (now Huaiyin) of Huaihe River in 225 AD to inspect the exercises of more than 100,000 soldiers. Due to the severe cold, the Huaihe River suddenly froze and the exercise had to be stopped. This is the first time that we know that the Huaihe River is frozen on record. The climate was colder then than it is now. This cold lasted until the second half of the third century, especially in the decade of 280-289. At that time, first frost was in April of the lunar calendar every year. It is estimated that the annual average temperature at that time was 1-2℃ lower than now. During the Southern and Northern Dynasties (AD 420-579), an igloo was built in Zhoushan, Nanjing to keep the food fresh. At that time, the winter in Nanjing should be 2℃ colder than now, so as to provide the ice needed for storage. The Book of Qi Yao Min, published about 533-544 AD, summarized the most comprehensive agricultural knowledge in China before the Six Dynasties. According to this book, apricot blossoms were in full bloom in mid-April in the solar calendar north of the Yellow River, and mulberry leaves were born in early May, about two to four weeks later than now. In addition, the book also says that pomegranate trees in the Yellow River valley are "wrapped in cattail" in winter, which also shows that the first half of the sixth century was colder than now.
During the Sui and Tang Dynasties (AD 58 1-907), the climate became warmer in the middle of the seventh century. In the winters of 650, 669 and 678, there was no ice and snow in the capital Chang 'an. In the early 8th century and the early 9th century, plum blossoms and oranges were planted in the Forbidden City in Xi 'an and Quchi in the southern suburbs. In 75 1 year, oranges were set in the palace, and there were also records of setting them in 84 1-847. Citrus can only resist the low temperature of -8℃, and now the absolute minimum temperature in Xi 'an is below -8℃ almost every year. By the beginning of 1 1 century, there were no plum trees in northern China. Su Shi, a poet in the Song Dynasty (A.D.1036-101) wrote a poem "There is no plum in Guanzhong". Wang Anshi (A.D.1021-1086) mocked northerners for mistaking plum for apricot. In his poems about red plum, he wrote the phrase "northerners are ignorant, but they are like apricot flowers". From this phenological knowledge, we can know the difference between cold and warm in Tang and Song Dynasties. /kloc-At the beginning of 0/2nd century, the climate in China became worse and colder. In A.D.111/year, Taihu Lake was completely frozen and still open to traffic. The famous oranges in Taihu Lake and Dongting Mountain froze to death. It often snows in Hangzhou until late spring. According to the historical records of the Southern Song Dynasty, from1131-1260, the latest date of snowfall every ten years is April 9, which is about one month later than that of Chun Xue in the first decade of the12nd century. 1153-1155, the South Canal near Suzhou froze in winter. In 1 170, the western hills of Beijing were covered with snow. Now, this phenomenon is rare. Fuzhou is the northern limit of litchi growth on the east coast of China. In the past 1000 years, litchi died twice, once in1100 and once in 1 178, both in 12 century.
Japanese feudal lords held banquets in Xijing Garden over the years to celebrate the blooming of Japanese cherry blossoms. From the ninth century to the nineteenth century, dates were recorded, thus keeping a phenological record. This cherry blossom period was the earliest in the ninth century and the latest in the twelfth century.
Just after the end of the twelfth century, winter in Hangzhou began to pick up again. In A.D. 1200, 12 13, 12 16, 1220, there was no snow and ice weather in Hangzhou. At this time, the apricot blossoms in Beijing are also clear and open, just like today. This warm climate seems to last until the second half of13rd century. Because the bamboo supervision offices set up in Hanoi (now Boai, Henan), Xi 'an and Fengxiang (Shaanxi) since the Sui and Tang Dynasties were intermittent during the Song and Yuan Dynasties, and did not stop completely until the end of the Ming Dynasty (A.D. 1368- 1644). Since then, bamboo is no longer cultivated as an economic tree species in the north of the Yellow River.
The warm period in the early and middle thirteenth century was short, and soon it became cold in winter. According to the collected records, the canals in Wuxi were frozen in A.D. 1309. In A.D. 1329 and A.D. 1353, Taihu Lake froze for several feet, and citrus reticulata froze to death again. 135 1 Gregorian calendar 1 1 June, but in recent years, it was not until1June in Henan and Shandong that the Yellow River froze. At that time, the swallow came to Beijing at the end of April and left in early August. Compared with the current phenological records, come early and go a week earlier. It can be seen that14th century is colder than13rd century and now. The phenology of Japanese cherry blossoms has the same reflection.
In A.D. 122 1 year, Qiu Chuji set out from Beijing to meet Genghis Khan in Central Asia and once passed through Sailimu Lake in Xinjiang. He called it "Tianchi". He said that the lake is surrounded by mountains, which are covered with snow and reflected in the lake. But now there is no snow on those peaks. Those peaks are about 3500 meters high, indicating that the snow line at that time was below 3500 meters. The snow line in this part of the modern Tianshan Mountains is between 3,700 and 4,200 meters, while the snow line in the13rd century is about 200 to 500 meters lower than it is now. In the Russian plain of Europe, the cold period began about 1350; In Germany and Austria, 1429- 1465 is the beginning of climate deterioration; In England, the poor harvests of 1430, 1550 and 1590 are also related to the cold weather. It can be seen that the cold trend began in East Asia and gradually shifted to the west. Local Chronicle Period (A.D. 1400- 1900)
According to 665 kinds of local chronicles, people counted the freezing years of Taihu Lake, Poyang Lake, Dongting Lake, Hanjiang River and Huaihe River (13rd century to 20th century) and the snowfall and frost years near sea level in tropical areas (16th century). It can be seen from these data that the warm winters in China are between 1550- 1600 and 1720- 1830. The cold winter is between 1470- 1520, 1620- 1720 and 1840- 1890. As far as the century is concerned, the seventeenth century is the coldest, followed by the nineteenth century.
This result is almost consistent with the freezing days in Japan (36 N, 0/38 E). It's just that Japanese winter started and ended a quarter of a century earlier than China.
As mentioned earlier, it was relatively cold in winter from15th century to19th century, with the coldest in17th century, especially from 1650 to 1700. For example, the orange orchards and orange orchards in Jiangxi were completely destroyed in two cold waves: A.D. 1654 and A.D. 1676. During these fifty years, Taihu Lake, Hanjiang River and Huaihe River have all been frozen four times, and Dongting Lake has been frozen twice. In tropical areas of China, snow and ice are also very frequent. The flowering periods of peach, apricot, lilac and begonia recorded in Shashi 1608- 17, Hubei Province are seven to ten days later than those of Wuchang today. Compared with now, the phenological records in Beijing 1653- 1655 are also one or two weeks behind. Moreover, according to the travel records at that time, the Tianjin Canal froze in June1165438+10/8, so we had to go to Beijing by bus. 1656 return trip, Beijing Canal thawed on March 5th. Therefore, it can be inferred that the freezing period at that time was 107 days, while the current freezing period is only 56 days. It can be estimated from phenology that the winter in Beijing will be about 2℃ colder than it is now in the middle of17th century. Instrument observation period
According to the records of rainy days in Beijing, Nanjing, Hangzhou and Suzhou in the Qing Dynasty (A.D. 1644- 19 10) and the average date from the first snowfall in autumn to the last snowfall in the Spring Festival,1-/KLOC-0 is obtained. This is consistent with the data in the previous section.
According to the temperature trend in Shanghai, the climate was cold in the last 25 years of the 19th century. In winter, the average temperature reached around 1897, and then it lasted above the average for about fourteen years. At about1910-1928, the temperature gradually drops below the average value. Then it rises, and the average value of 1945- 1950 exceeds 0.6℃. After that, the temperature gradually decreased and returned to the average value of 1960. During this period, the trend of winter temperature change in Tianjin is similar to that in Shanghai, but the peak and bottom points arrive several years earlier than that in Shanghai, and the range is also large; The peaks and valleys of curve fluctuation in Hong Kong are slower and smaller than those in Shanghai. The climate in Shanghai fluctuated between 0.5 and 1℃ for more than 80 years. This swing directly affects the production of animals and plants, indirectly controls the occurrence of pests and diseases, and affects agricultural management and agricultural production.
The temperature changes in China in recent 80 years have affected the snow line and glacier advance and retreat in Tianshan Mountains. According to the investigation of the Glacier Team of China Academy of Sciences, it is proved that during the fifty years from 19 10 to 1960, the snow line in Tianshan Mountain rose by 40 to 50 meters, and glacier tongue in the west retreated by 500 to 1000 meters. Glacier tongue in the East Tianshan Mountains retreated 200 to 400 meters. At the same time, the forest ceiling has also increased a little. Because of the discovery of fresh glacial deposits, which are obviously different from ancient glacial deposits in weathering degree, soil and vegetation development, it can be considered that the glaciers covering the main peak of Tianshan Mountain now are the products of historical times (that is, the cold period of11900), rather than the remnants of the Quaternary ice age.
This paper can draw the following preliminary conclusions:
(1) In the first two thousand years of nearly five thousand years in China (that is, from Yangshao culture in primitive clan era to Yin Ruins in Anyang in slave society), the annual average temperature was about 2℃ higher than it is now. The temperature in January was about 3-5℃ higher than it is now.
(2) After that, there was a series of up-and-down swings, with the lowest temperatures of BC 1000, AD 400, AD 1200 and AD 1700, respectively, and the swing range was 1-2℃.
(3) Every 400 ~ 800 years is a cycle, which can be divided into small cycles of 50 ~ 100 years, and the temperature rises and falls within the range of 0.5 ~ 65438 0℃.
(4) In the above cycle, any coldest period seems to start from the Pacific coast of East Asia, and the cold fluctuation spreads westward to the Atlantic coast of Europe and Africa, and also tends to spread from north to south.
We compared the temperature fluctuations in Europe and China since the 3rd century, and found that the temperature fluctuations in the two places are related. In the same ups and downs, Europe tends to lag behind China. Because there is a certain relationship between the rise and fall of the snow line in a place and the temperature, our results are basically the same as those in Norway, but there are some differences. It was only in 400 BC (Warring States Period) that there was a cold period in Norway that China did not have.
Recently, the Institute of Physics, University of Copenhagen, Denmark, studied the freezing temperature in Greenland glacier block by using the radioisotope method of ○ 18 power. The temperature fluctuation in Greenland in the past 1700 years is consistent with the results in this paper. In addition, there was a cold period in China three thousand years ago, and the18th method of Greenland belt A was also reflected in the same way.
This paper mainly uses the method of phenology to infer the change of paleoclimate. Phenology is the oldest climate symbol. It is a modern method to measure the paleotemperature of ancient ice water by the ratio of χ 18 to χ 16, but the results obtained by the two methods are basically the same, which also proves that it is an effective method to study paleoclimate with phenological data contained in ancient history books. If we can master the law of climate change in the past, it will certainly be beneficial to the long-term prediction of future climate. If we can take Marxism-Leninism and Mao Zedong Thought as the guidance, make full use of the abundant paleophenology and archaeological data in China, and make periodic long-term predictions from paleoclimate research, we can get results.