The market operates normally according to certain rules, and the irregular stock market will have more and more influence on China's capital market and even the whole economic development.
Re-understanding the role of the stock market
The government, society and investors should renew their ideas and re-recognize the position and role of the stock market. The development of the stock market is the inevitable result of China's economic system reform, but the participants and managers of the stock market have not yet reached a certain height, and there are certain misunderstandings. From the government's point of view, the stock market is an important place to raise funds. The development of the stock market can effectively solve the problem of capital shortage of large and medium-sized state-owned enterprises. Therefore, the listing of enterprises in the region is actively recommended. This understanding makes some enterprises go public just to make money, instead of completely transforming the property right system and management mode of enterprises according to the modern enterprise system. It shows that some enterprises have not fundamentally changed their business philosophy and management mechanism after listing, and some have lost money soon.
Therefore, the government should take the optimal allocation of capital resources as the primary function of the securities market, and promote capital inflow to companies with stronger profitability through the fundamentals of listed companies.
From the investor's point of view, because of stock trading, investors think that investing in the stock market is to speculate on stocks and seek the bid-ask spread. But to establish a correct investment concept, through enterprise development and asset appreciation, through investment in enterprises, so that they can obtain higher long-term benefits. On the other hand, if you invest in a promising enterprise, become a real shareholder and enjoy the rights of shareholders, you can get the dividends you deserve from the enterprise.
From the perspective of enterprises, the exit mechanism of the stock market has been implemented. With the delisting of PT Narcissus and the delisting risk of eight PT companies, the market has reallocated capital resources according to the mechanism of survival of the fittest, and it has become a thing of the past to go public by "circling money" and packaging.
Therefore, we must fundamentally establish the management mechanism of enterprises according to the modern enterprise system and improve the operating efficiency. Only in this way can enterprises face the competition of domestic counterparts and be invincible in the complicated international competition. Therefore, whether an enterprise is listed for financing or through other channels needs to be seriously considered, especially now that the information disclosure system is constantly improving, some business secrets will inevitably be revealed if it wants to go public, so listing is not the only way to consider the fundamental interests of enterprises.
Solve the problem of listing and circulation of state-owned shares and legal person shares
Reform the current stock issuance system, solve the problem of listing and circulation of state-owned shares and legal person shares as soon as possible, and gradually realize the unification of China stock market. China's current stock issuance is an approval system. Securities management departments strictly examine the qualifications of securities issuing companies, cancel the planned management and scale control of securities issuance, and liberalize the issuance price in the primary market. State-owned, private and joint ventures can apply for listing. The reform of stock issue price focuses on pricing, developing towards competitive bidding, and gradually letting the market decide the specific issue price.
On the other hand, we can gradually solve the problem of state-owned shares and legal person shares in various ways, such as continuing to reduce state-owned shares according to market capacity, introducing preferred shares, converting state-owned shares into preferred shares, expanding the investment scope of various investment funds and insurance funds in the stock market, expanding the circulation of legal person shares through online transactions and agreement transfer, reducing the proportion of state-owned shares and legal person shares and increasing the number of individual shares. Because, if state-owned shares and legal person shares are not listed, compared with individual shares, it is impossible to achieve the same share and the same right, and the optimal combination of enterprise assets is also difficult to achieve, which is not conducive to the survival of the fittest and the market mechanism of enterprises, and is also not conducive to the enthusiasm of individual investors.
On the other hand, China's stock market can only be traded on the market, which is contrary to the current situation of China's economic reform. The combination of centralization and decentralization, on-site and off-site trading should be adopted to make the stock market smooth, which is also conducive to the smooth withdrawal of listed companies from on-site trading after the implementation of the withdrawal mechanism, and the shares of enterprises that do not want to be listed participate in circulation.
Cultivate market participants in the stock market
Restrain speculation, actively develop institutional investors, and focus on cultivating market participants in China stock market. Speculation is a special form of investment. Under the condition of narrow investment channels and single investment varieties in China, all kinds of social hot money will enter the securities market in large quantities, so it is increasingly important to standardize investment concepts and continuously cultivate institutional investors.
Securities investment fund is one of them. However, there are many closed-end securities investment funds in China at present. The pilot work of open-end investment funds has just begun. We should proceed from China's national conditions, expand the scale of investment funds, cultivate and develop institutional investors such as insurance funds and pension funds, attract large and medium-sized enterprises and enterprise groups to invest in the stock market, and set up Sino-foreign cooperative funds under appropriate conditions. On this basis, we should learn from the experience of the United States and vigorously train China's expert brokers-market traders.
In the United States, market makers account for about 25% of the total membership, and about 30%-40% of the stock trading volume is conducted between market makers and commission brokers. Sitting traders have played an important role in stabilizing the stock market, preventing the stock price from soaring and plunging, and maintaining the continuity of the stock market. Therefore, in order to play a role, market traders should not only have abundant funds, but also hold a considerable number of stocks, so as to tend to be flat when the stock price rises and falls sharply.
Improve the necessary laws and regulations.
Gradually improve the securities law and company law, improve market transparency and strengthen supervision. In order to ensure the healthy development of the stock market, it is necessary to establish and improve necessary laws and regulations, such as securities law, company law, corresponding tax policies and internationally accepted accounting system, so as to meet the needs of the stock market. In accordance with the principle of "fairness, openness and justice", protect the interests of small and medium-sized investors, improve market transparency, improve the quality and asset reputation of listed companies, and enhance investors' confidence in the stock market. Strengthen supervision, resolutely crack down on and put an end to illegal market behavior, and intensify the investigation and punishment of stock price manipulation.
(B) China stock market should take countermeasures, as well as the way out in the future.
China Stock Market and Macroeconomy
1, from the current situation of China stock market and macro-economy.
In developed market economy countries, the stock market plays the role of "barometer" of economic growth, but from the situation of China's stock market, there is a two-way deviation between the stock price index and GDP trend, and the correlation between the stock market and the macro economy is too low. Therefore, how to realize the coordinated development of stock market and macro-economy is an urgent problem to be studied and solved.
2. The reasons why the stock market deviates from the macro economy.
The split of 1 share has caused a serious difference in input and output between tradable shareholders and non-tradable shareholders; The split share structure is a unique phenomenon in China stock market, which makes the investment value of China stock market for non-tradable shareholders greater than that for tradable shareholders.
2. The split share structure causes the shareholders of tradable shares to be afraid of the integration of the stock market with the international market; The split share structure distorts China stock market, resulting in high share price and P/E ratio, which makes foreign investors think that China stock market has no investment value. Shareholders are afraid that in order to be in line with international standards and successfully introduce QFII, the management will set the A-share price and its P/E ratio until foreign investors think it has investment value; I am also afraid that the introduction of QFII will make a large number of institutional investors who can't make profits in the domestic market withdraw their funds and invest abroad.
3. The parties involved in the China stock market resort to deceit and lack of integrity; Shareholders are afraid of fraud. The board of supervisors of most listed companies is "in name only" and lacks an effective supervision mechanism for the behavior of major shareholders, resulting in a series of phenomena of encroachment and damage to the interests of minority shareholders. Such as irregular information disclosure, short-term behavior, too much money, over-investment, ignoring the rights and interests of minority shareholders, etc. The management's sense of responsibility and honesty and obligation is weak, and even there is negligence in management. The low quality of stock reviewers in the market has caused losses and lost confidence to investors.
4 listed companies are keen to circle money, regardless of returns; The issue price and listing price with high P/E ratio, and the uncontrolled high-priced issuance and placement of new shares by listed companies. However, after raising a lot of money, many companies fell into losses that year. Some of the funds raised are used for stock trading, and some are unaccounted for. This has left a lingering shadow for most investors.
The global economy is in recession and the stock market is depressed. The global economic recession has a great impact on China stock market. Due to the rapid development of economic globalization, the economic ties between countries are unprecedentedly close. The global economic recession has had a direct impact on the import and export of some industries in China. For listed companies with mixed performance, it is a decline in performance.
3. To achieve the macro-economic goals, we must vigorously develop the stock market.
From 1 1978 to 20 1 1, the macro-economy has maintained rapid growth for 33 years, mainly relying on indirect financing by bank loans. The stock market is in the pilot stage, and the domestic stock market financing ratio is very small.
In order to maintain the rapid and healthy development of the macro-economy and achieve the macro-economic development goals, we can no longer rely on almost a single financing method in the past. We should vigorously develop capital markets such as the stock market and gradually expand the proportion of direct financing. The core of modern market economy is finance, and capital market is the link connecting other factor markets. Only by developing the capital market can other factors of production be closely combined to form realistic productive forces. This will not only help to spread the financial risks of banks, but also turn more savings into investment, making the capital market a new engine to promote macroeconomic development after expanding domestic demand, foreign trade exports and introducing foreign capital.
To develop the stock market, we should not only expand the scale of the stock market, but also improve its efficiency. Expanding the size of the stock market is to keep the market value of the stock market in a reasonable proportion to GDP and expand direct financing.
According to the average proportion of global emerging markets in GDP and direct financing, the market value of China stock market needs to be greatly developed. To improve the efficiency of the stock market, we must adjust the stock market structure (equity structure, stock price structure, investor structure, etc.). ) and optimize resource allocation. Investment in the stock market should focus on industries and listed companies with good performance and growth, so that more stocks have long-term investment value and become financial assets that investors can hold for a long time.
4. At present, the correlation between stock market and macro-economy is too low.
In most years of the development of China stock market, the trend of stock index always deviates from the trend of GDP, and the overall macroeconomic development shows a high-speed growth trend. The trend of the stock index is high before and then low, and the fundamental reason for the fluctuation operation lies in the low correlation between the stock market and the macro-economy. The specific reasons are as follows:
1 The stock market is too small. Compared with the macro economy, the stock market is too small, which is very disproportionate. The proportion of China's circulating market value equivalent to GDP is 12. 19%, while the average proportion of emerging markets in the world is about 70%, and that of mature markets is 100- 130%. The stock market is too small relative to the macro economy, which hinders the effective interaction between the two. Sometimes the decline of macroeconomic growth rate does not prevent the stock index from strengthening sharply, and sometimes the macroeconomic strength does not prevent the stock index from falling sharply.
2 The overall quality of listed companies is poor. The overall quality of listed companies in China is not high, and the correlation between stock price index and macroeconomic trend is mainly realized by the performance of listed companies. Theoretically speaking, microeconomics is the foundation of macroeconomics, and the trend of macroeconomics is improving because microeconomics (companies) have good performance and the stock price index is naturally strong. But in fact, the trend of China stock index has little to do with the performance of listed companies, the performance of listed companies and macroeconomic development.
The stock market is in its infancy. The small scale of the stock market and the poor overall quality of listed companies are determined by the stage of the stock market. (1) From the perspective of regulatory system, it was not until1August 5, 998 that the China Securities Regulatory Commission was officially recognized as an institution directly under the State Council; (2) From the perspective of stock issuance system: On March 16, 2000, China's stock issuance system was changed from examination and approval system to approval system; (3) From the perspective of investor structure, the proportion of retail investors in China's stock market is relatively large, and the proportion of institutional investors is too low; (4) From the perspective of securities market intermediaries, most of them are small and medium-sized brokers; (5) From the legal system of the securities market, the Securities Law of People's Republic of China (PRC) was formally implemented on July 1 July/999, and is still being revised.
Judging from the above-mentioned basic structure, China stock market is in a transitional period from the pilot stage to the normal development stage, and it would be best if this transitional period could end at the same time as the transitional period of China's accession to the WTO.
5. Countermeasures and suggestions for the coordinated development of stock market and macro-economy.
1 Macroeconomic departments should pay attention to the development of the stock market. The development of the stock market is a strategic issue related to the overall macro-economy if the macro-economy is to maintain rapid growth.
We should strengthen the infrastructure of the stock market. At present, the main problems in China stock market can be attributed to the immaturity of the stock market. On the basis of summing up historical experience and lessons, we should further improve the infrastructure of the stock market. For example, reform the company's listing and delisting system, vigorously develop institutional investors, broaden the channels for compliance funds to enter the market, improve the mechanism for protecting the interests of small and medium-sized investors, build a multi-level market system, enrich stock market products, improve market trading rules, strengthen information disclosure, advocate the concept of value investment, strengthen strict and effective supervision of stock market operation, and improve the stock market legal system.
3. We should effectively improve the quality of listed companies. High-quality listed companies are the cornerstone of the healthy development of the stock market. In the stock market, the stamp duty collected by the state, the commission of intermediary institutions, the return of investors, etc. It should be created by listed companies, so that the stock market can be said to have investment value. It can be said that improving the quality of listed companies is the basis of stock market construction.
4. Solve the problem of full circulation. To stabilize and develop the stock market, we should not only strengthen the market infrastructure, but also pay attention to solving the historical problems left over from the stock market pilot.
We should pay attention to solving problems in economic development.
After the correlation between the stock market and the macro-economy is enhanced, the macro-economic troubles will soon be reflected in the stock market. Looking back on the international stock market situation in the past hundred years, it is found that the stock markets in various countries have suffered heavy losses, mostly due to macroeconomic problems. We should attach importance to giving full play to the advantages of the strong macro-control ability of the socialist market economy, persist in solving the problems in economic development in time by means of reform and development, and create a good real economic environment for the development of the China stock market.