1. In the scope of application, "prediction" refers to the prediction of possible future situations and "estimation" refers to the estimation of existing facts.
2. In the time range, "prediction" focuses on future decisions, while "estimation" focuses on current decisions.
3. In data collection, "prediction" is unknown future data, and only the existing data is used to predict the future, while "estimation" is known required data, and the relationship between variables is obtained through the model.
In statistics, "prediction" is called statistical prediction and "estimation" is called statistical estimation.
"Prediction" mainly refers to the decision-making behavior that can be taken from the perspective of reasoning based on known facts without obtaining relevant data.
"Estimation" refers to an accurate estimated value obtained by combining a sample value with relevant data.
Extended data:
Commonly used statistical forecasting methods:
First, the index comparison analysis method
Also known as comparative analysis, it is the most commonly used method in statistical analysis. It is a method to reflect the differences and changes in the number of things through the comparison of related indicators.
Second, the group analysis method
The index comparative analysis method is a general comparison, but the units that make up the statistical population have their own characteristics, which makes many differences between the units in the same population. Statistical analysis should not only analyze the quantitative characteristics and quantitative relations of groups, but also carry out group analysis within groups.
Thirdly, time series and dynamic analysis time series. It arranges a series of numerical values of the same index in chronological order to form a time series, also known as dynamic series.
It can reflect the development and change of social and economic phenomena, and find out the dynamic change law through the compilation and analysis of time series, so as to provide a basis for predicting the future development trend. Time series can be divided into absolute time series, relative time series and average time series.
Fourth, the index analysis method
Index refers to the relative number reflecting the changes of social and economic phenomena. There are broad sense and narrow sense. According to the different research scope of index, there can be single index, class index and total index.
Five, the balance analysis method
Equilibrium analysis is a method to study the quantitative equivalence of social and economic phenomena. It arranges the two sides of the unity of opposites one by one according to their constituent elements, giving people the concept of the whole, so as to observe the balanced relationship between them as a whole.
Comprehensive evaluation and analysis of intransitive verbs
The phenomenon of socio-economic analysis is often complicated, and socio-economic operation is the result of the comprehensive action of many factors, and the direction and degree of change of each factor are different.
Seven, forecast analysis
Macroeconomic decision-making and microeconomic decision-making not only need to understand the actual situation that has happened in economic operation, but also need to foresee what will happen in the future. Predicting the future according to the known past and present is predictive analysis.
References:
Baidu encyclopedia-statistical estimation