20 14 China economy continued its downward trend since 20 12. The GDP growth rate in the first quarter was 7.4%, which was much lower than the average annual growth rate of 9.3% in 2008-20 12, and a series of macroeconomic data since1-April were generally lower than expected. In fact, this round of macroeconomic downturn is not caused by a single factor, but by the superposition of multiple factors: both shrinking external demand and slowing domestic demand growth; There are both cyclical factors and structural adjustments; There are both short-term demand fluctuations and medium-and long-term potential growth rate declines, so it is necessary to fully understand China's current macroeconomic judgment.

At present, China's economy has entered a new period from high-speed growth to medium-high-speed growth. On the one hand, from a global perspective, since the international financial crisis in 2008, the world economy has entered a period of deep transformation and adjustment from a period of rapid development before the financial crisis. On the other hand, from the internal environment, the growth rate has entered the shift period, and the structural adjustment is facing a painful period. The superposition of the "three phases" in the digestive period of the previous stimulus policy is the stage feature of China's economy at present, and it is also the "new normal" that China's economy will face for a long time to come.

There is no need to be too alarmed about the macroeconomic downturn in China. First, vertically, compared with 2008-2009, the amplitude and speed of this downward cycle are moderate. After the collapse of Lehman in 2008, the global economic and financial situation was turbulent, and the economic growth rate of China declined rapidly. The quarterly annualized rate of GDP dropped sharply from 10.3% in the second quarter of 2008 to 4.0% in the fourth quarter of that year. However, the downward speed of this round is relatively moderate and relatively small. Although the growth rate of 7.4% in the first quarter of this year is the lowest since 20 10, it is not as big as the last round.

Second, in terms of horizontal comparison, the slowdown in economic growth is also within the tolerable range. Compared with the almost double-digit annual growth in China since the reform and opening up, the current growth rate in China is definitely slowing down; However, from the global horizontal comparison, China's economic slowdown is obviously smaller than that of other emerging economies. Take India as an example. In 20 10, the growth rate of India was 10. 1%, and it dropped to 4.9% in 20 13, which was much faster than that of China. In addition, from the perspective of export-oriented economies, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan Province Province of China are all declining. China's "new normal" of 7% depends not on external reference, but on the law of economic growth and internal structural adjustment. Compared with the growth rate of more than 8% or even higher in the past, the growth rate of around 7% pays more attention to quality and is more suitable for the development level of middle-income countries in China.

Thirdly, from the relationship between employment and economic growth, due to the increase of employment elasticity coefficient in China, China's economy is strengthening its ability to bear imbalance and can bear a slightly lower growth rate. For example, 20 10, economic growth rate 10.8%, and new jobs10.68 million. By 20 1 1, the economic growth slowed down to 9.2%, but the number of jobs increased to 122 1000. In 20 12 years, except in special periods (1989, 1998, etc.), the economic growth rate reached the lowest value of 7.8%. Since the reform and opening up, the number of newly-added employees has reached the historical peak of12.66 million. This figure is even more than the increase of12.04 million jobs (growth rate 14.6%) in 2007, and it is the fastest growing economy in more than a decade. Since the beginning of this year, the GDP growth rate has further slowed down, but the employment situation has not deteriorated.

The current downward growth rate is an inevitable pain in the process of structural adjustment. This economic downturn is benign, which is caused by the law of economic growth and the adjustment of internal structure. We don't have to be too alarmed and redefine our growth expectations. On the contrary, we should increase our tolerance for economic growth slowdown and pay more attention to further deepening reform and economic restructuring in order to truly improve the quality and efficiency of the economy.

Therefore, the focus of policy and reform is to realize the transformation from "demand management" to "supply management", and strengthen the weak links in economy and society through "supply management", which will also increase the effective supply in the macro economy, increase the intensity of factor input and improve the system, and solve the contradiction between downward pressure on growth and structural imbalance through technological innovation, accumulation of human capital and improvement of labor total factor productivity. At the same time, the marketization reform of a series of factor prices, such as interest rate marketization, breaking monopoly pricing and changing the distribution of national wealth, must also be promoted in an orderly manner. Only in this way can growth be sustained and healthy, which is also the new thinking and new way out under the "new normal" of the economy.