Let's go The reasons for the long-term expansion of American economy are mainly high-tech industries, appropriate economic policies and international economic integration. We should learn from them, accelerate the pace of China's economic system reform, actively implement the policy of opening to the outside world, cultivate and develop high-tech industries, and promote the sustained, stable and healthy development of China's economy.
From April 199 1 to March this year, the American economy has been growing for 96 consecutive months, far exceeding the average of 50 months in nine post-war expansion periods, and it is the third longest post-war economic expansion period in the United States, and so far the American economy has not shown signs of recession. This phenomenon has aroused widespread concern and strong interest of economists all over the world. Many people think that the United States has entered the era of "new economy", and Time magazine of the United States even spoke highly of it as "a rare good time for decades" and "the most striking thing at the turn of the century". So, why does the American economy continue to grow? Does this mean the arrival of a new economic era? What inspiration should China get from it? This paper intends to make a preliminary discussion on these issues.
First, the new characteristics of the American economic expansion.
Compared with previous economic expansion, this economic growth in the United States has many different new features, mainly including the following aspects.
1. Take the information industry as the leading factor to drive the overall growth of the national economy. An important feature of American economic expansion this time is the rapid development of information industry. Due to the extraordinary development of large companies such as Intel and Microsoft and the rapid popularization of the Internet, the information industry has become the most important pillar industry in the United States. According to statistics, the contribution rate of high-tech sectors such as information industry in the United States to GDP is 27%, while the contribution rates of two traditional pillar industries, namely, civil residence and automobile, are 14% and 4% respectively. At the same time, due to the extensive use of high-tech means, the original "sunset industry" in the United States has been revived, and the production efficiency of many traditional economic sectors has been greatly improved. In fact, every economic expansion will be accompanied by certain scientific and technological progress, and the economic growth brought by this information industry revolution is different from other forms of scientific and technological progress, so this economic expansion in the United States has new characteristics different from the past.
2. High economic growth coexists with low inflation and low unemployment rate. Due to the sustained economic growth, the domestic labor market in the United States is increasingly tense, and the unemployment rate has been declining year by year, reaching the best level in 20 years. At the same time, according to the Phillips curve design model, the price level has not risen. At present, the inflation rate in the United States is only about 3%, which is the lowest in 30 years.
Yes That is to say, while maintaining high-speed growth, the American economy has achieved an ideal state of low unemployment rate and low inflation rate, which is in sharp contrast with its "stagflation" situation in the 1980s, and has aroused the strong interest of economists.
3. The economic growth rate continued to be stable, with no ups and downs. According to the experience of previous economic expansion in the United States, the first three years are generally the peak of growth, while the average growth rate in the first three years of this economic expansion (1992- 1994) is only 2.8%, which is lower than that in the 1970s (5.2%) and 1980s (4.8%). It shows a slow and steady growth trend, but since 1996, the economic growth rate has increased to more than 3.5%, and even increased to an astonishing 4.2% in the first quarter of this year. So far, American economic indicators are still rising steadily, and there is no sign of recession. It can be expected that the economic expansion of the United States will continue in this stable state for a long time.
4. The financial market is extremely active. Different from the steady economic growth, the financial market in the United States is in a "hot" development state, and the stock market, foreign exchange market and bond market are all optimistic, especially the American stock market, which has been soaring at an average annual rate of 30% since the economic expansion, and the Dow Jones index has reached a new high, breaking through the 9000 mark. It is estimated that it will exceed 10000 in June this year. This kind of economic growth under the conditions of "three lows" (unemployment rate, inflation rate and interest rate) and "three highs" (exchange rate, stock price and corporate profits) is rare not only in the United States but also in the history of world economic development.
5. With the increase of export, the degree of economic extroversion is greatly improved. In recent years, the export growth of the United States has obviously accelerated, ranking first in the world. According to statistics, the export growth rate of the United States is more than twice the economic growth rate. In the past decade, American exports have increased by 1.4 times at comparable prices. Especially in the field of service trade, the United States has always been in a leading position in the world. From 65438 to 0996, the service trade surplus of the United States was as high as $73.4 billion, which almost offset its trade deficit of 40% that year. At the same time, the extroversion of the American economy has also been greatly improved. 1996 America's dependence on foreign trade was as high as 30%, while 1992 was 25%.
According to this new feature of economic expansion, many western economists believe that the American economy has entered the "new economy" era, and summed up nine characteristics of this new economy: knowledge, digitalization, virtualization, unitization, integration, globalization, industrial integration, consumption and production integration, social imbalance and new changes. They believe that the arrival of the new economic era has gradually weakened the role of various internal factors that originally restricted the cyclical expansion of the economy, and the continuous development of high-tech industries and market globalization have prolonged the vitality of the economic cycle. This new economic era in the United States is actually similar to the era of knowledge economy we are talking about. After agricultural economy and industrial economy, it is a brand-new social and economic form based on the popularization and wide application of scientific and technological knowledge, and through the rapid development of high-tech industries represented by information industry, it drives the sustained growth of the whole national economy. This knowledge-based economy has become a reality in the United States, and China is at the threshold of entering this era. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the reasons for the realization of knowledge economy in the United States and the policies and measures adopted by the American government for this purpose.
Second, the main reasons for economic growth in the United States
1, develop high-tech industries.
The rapid development of high-tech industries, mainly information industry, is an important reason for the current economic expansion in the United States. This is because this high-tech industry has the following characteristics:
(1) The driving force of high-tech industries to the economy is much higher than that of other industries. According to the research, a high-tech enterprise like Microsoft can create 6.7 new jobs for every additional job, while a traditional industry like Boeing can only create 3.8 new jobs for every additional job. This is because employees in high-tech industries are well-paid, and they have the ability to buy luxury cars and high-end houses, which can effectively stimulate social demand and drive the growth of the whole economy.
(2) High-tech can give full play to the potential of traditional industries. Due to the development of high-tech industries, traditional industries can speed up the pace of technological transformation, improve management level, prolong life cycle and glow with new vitality. At the same time, the popularity of computer networks also enables enterprises to conduct online marketing, grasp market information in time, reduce inventory and prevent overproduction. It has eased the phenomenon that the production capacity of enterprises is often out of touch with the actual market demand in the past economic cycle and promoted a virtuous circle of the economy.
(3) The development of high-tech industries will not cause inflation. A notable feature of high-tech products is that the initial investment is large, but the actual production cost for sales is very low, such as computer chips and software. This forms a virtuous circle.
Ring, the increase in demand leads to a decline in prices, which in turn further stimulates demand. According to statistics, computers and other high-tech products in the United States are updated and reduced at a rate of 25% every year, thus offsetting the inflationary pressure brought by the rising wages of workers, especially high-tech staff.
Due to the above characteristics, the US government attaches great importance to the development of high-tech industries and has taken many effective measures, including (1) the establishment of the National Science Committee parallel to the National Security Council and the Economic Committee, with the President as the chairman, which has raised the development of high-tech industries to an unprecedented important position; (2) Increase incentives for technological progress, and provide tax and financial benefits and convenience for high-tech industries; ⑶ Improve the level of human capital, implement lifelong education, "provide everyone with the skills to seize opportunities" and so on. Since 1993, its investment in high-tech equipment has been growing at an annual rate of more than 25%, which has greatly promoted the development of high-tech industry and made it the most important pillar industry of the American economy.
2. A favorable international environment.
After the end of the Cold War, the arms race between countries has become economic competition, and the issue of development has become the main contradiction in the world. It is in this situation that the United States drastically reduced military spending, increased investment in science and technology, and combined military research and development with civilian projects, which effectively promoted economic growth. Therefore, this economic expansion of the United States has largely achieved a "peace dividend."
On the other hand, since the 1990s, the trend of global economic integration has been very obvious, especially after the signing of the Uruguay Round Agreement, the process of worldwide trade and investment liberalization has been further accelerated. In this case, the Clinton administration changed the traditional American policy of "free trade" into a more pragmatic policy of "fair trade" and adopted a series of foreign economic measures aimed at enhancing the comprehensive competitiveness of the United States, which played a positive role in promoting the economic growth of the United States.
(1) Strengthen the protection of domestic industries and create a "fair competition" environment. Since the 1990s, the United States has strengthened the implementation of the 1988 Comprehensive Trade Act and clause 30 1, putting pressure on its trading partners to open their markets to American goods.
The market has caused many trade frictions between Japan, the United States and China. At the same time, the United States often uses anti-dumping and countervailing measures, becoming the country with the largest number of anti-dumping and countervailing cases and the largest amount involved in the world. The purpose of these measures in the United States is to provide protection for domestic industries that do not have competitive advantages, so as to stimulate the economic growth of the United States, but under the banner of creating a "fair competition" environment, it has brought certain losses to other countries.
(2) Implement the "national export strategy" and give play to the engine role of export in economic growth. The Clinton administration opened up overseas markets with an unprecedented positive attitude, gave priority to expanding foreign trade in its foreign economic policy, formulated the first "national export strategy" in American history, and identified six key export industries. In order to achieve this policy goal, the Clinton administration has taken a series of measures, including reforming institutional settings to provide exporters with all-round services; Expand export financing budget, broaden financing channels and provide financial support for exporters; Relax the export restrictions of high-tech products; Strengthen the government's economic diplomacy and actively explore the markets of major emerging countries. These measures have achieved positive results. The growth rate of American exports is 8.4% from 1992 to 1996, which is 6% higher than the world average. US exports of manufactured goods from 1996 reached US$ 522.66 billion, a record high. Since 1987, the contribution rate of American exports to national economic growth has remained above 55%, so the role of export growth in this economic expansion of the United States cannot be ignored.
(3) Actively carry out multilateral economic cooperation and promote the implementation of the Uruguay Round Agreement. In recent years, the United States has been actively advocating and promoting the development of multilateral trade cooperation including APEC and NAFTA, strengthening relations with trading partners, and expanding and stabilizing the export market. At the same time, the United States is also very interested in the outcome of the Uruguay Round negotiations. The U.S. Department of Commerce pointed out in a research report of 1994 that if the Uruguay Agreement can be fully implemented, the United States will benefit from10-200 billion U.S. dollars every year and increase hundreds of thousands of jobs. Therefore, the United States spared no effort to promote the implementation of the agreement in order to win opportunities for its highly competitive industries to enter a broader market.
3. Successful domestic economic policies.
Clinton's economic policy is a comprehensive product, which mixes the policy propositions of Keynesian school, monetary school, supply school and reasonable expectation school, and opposes both laissez-faire and excessive government intervention. In Clinton's words, it is to take the "third way."
(1) fiscal policy. Since the Clinton administration took office, reducing the fiscal deficit and overcoming macroeconomic imbalances have been the primary policy objectives, but the specific policies he adopted are different from those of previous governments. First of all, he dared to raise taxes on the rich, resisted various pressures and ensured the steady growth of fiscal revenue. Secondly, he did not simply control expenditure from the total amount, but made structural adjustments, and all kinds of financial expenditures increased, including increasing investment in high-tech fields and infrastructure, accelerating the pace of information superhighway construction, and promoting the growth of economic and financial income with the development of high-tech industries; Increase investment in education and improve the quality of citizens; Cut defense budget expenditure and federal administrative expenditure; Reduce productive expenditure, encourage private investment and so on.
These policies and measures adopted by the US government have achieved remarkable results. In recent years, the federal fiscal deficit has been declining. According to statistics, the federal fiscal deficits of 1992- 1995 were $2,903, $2,549, $2,030 and 1638 respectively. It is expected that the United States will achieve a balanced budget at the beginning of the next century. If this goal can be achieved, then
(2) Monetary policy. Faced with the pressure of reducing the fiscal deficit, the federal government cannot stimulate the economy by increasing fiscal expenditure too much, and monetary policy has become the most important means to regulate the economy. After Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan took office, he implemented a prudent monetary policy and made positive contributions to maintaining the sustained growth of the American economy. First of all, the central goal of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is to control inflation, and to ensure the realization of this goal, we must sacrifice economic growth; Secondly, adjust the intermediary target of monetary policy. One is to change the traditional intermediate target money supply to the real interest rate, and then regard them as the same goal; Thirdly, instead of adopting the "camera choice" theory of deflation during inflation and expansion during unemployment, we adopt a "neutral" monetary policy, that is, we do not use money as a means to stimulate or suppress the economy; Finally, maintain the continuous stability of monetary policy and "fine-tune" it according to the specific actual situation.
Facts have proved that American monetary policy is extremely successful, especially from February 1994 to February 1995, the Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates seven times to curb economic overheating, and achieved remarkable results. Therefore, western economists believe that Greenspan has made great contributions to the sustained growth of the American economy.
Thirdly, the enlightenment we get from it.
This economic growth in the United States has brought endless topics to the world economic circles. We should also study it seriously, and get some useful enlightenment from it, so as to ensure the healthy, stable and sustainable development of China's economy and bring a prosperous and powerful China into the 2 1 century.
Ji.
1, accelerate the pace of economic system reform and establish a sound socialist market economic system.
This economic growth process in the United States shows that a sound modern market economic system is the fundamental guarantee for the normal development of social economy.
Barriers. Adopting traditional economic management methods may make the economy achieve extraordinary development speed in a short time, and to achieve sustained and stable development, we must rely on the modern market economic system. The East Asian financial crisis, which is in sharp contrast with the steady economic growth of the United States, also proves this point from the opposite side. Therefore, our most urgent task at present is to accelerate the pace of economic system reform and establish a perfect socialist market economic system in China as soon as possible.
(1) Accelerate the process of establishing a modern enterprise system, make enterprises truly market-oriented, maximize their own interests and have clear property rights relations, establish an external environment for fair competition among all kinds of enterprises, and improve the micro-foundation of social economy.
(2) Give full play to the basic role of the market in resource allocation, leave the problems that the market can solve to the market, and don't artificially set obstacles for the market to play its role.
Facts have proved that excessive laissez-faire and excessive government intervention are not good things, and we must find the best macro-control of the economy by the government. As far as the current situation is concerned, I think we must completely get rid of the mindset of planned economy, give up the superstition of the government's ability to manage the economy, respect the objective operation law of the market economy itself, and learn from the East Asian model.
Training, the establishment of government indirect economic regulation mechanism, to avoid direct intervention in the normal operation of the market and economy. Of course, we still have a long way to go to establish a perfect market economy system, but we must speed up the pace, otherwise we will lose opportunities and be at a disadvantage in the fierce international competition.
2, vigorously develop high-tech industries, to meet the arrival of the era of knowledge economy.
In the era of knowledge economy, the level of a country's high-tech industry will determine its economic competitiveness, so we must put the development of China's high-tech industry in an extremely important position.
(1) Establish China's innovation mechanism and vigorously support the development of high technology. The most important thing to develop high technology is to base itself on the domestic market, and it is impossible to rely solely on introduction. Therefore, we must increase investment in science and technology, catch up with the world's advanced level in scientific research, and produce a large number of outstanding high-tech achievements.
(2) Develop venture capital industry and accelerate the industrialization of high-tech achievements. High-tech industry is an industry with high investment, high return and high risk. It is impossible to develop high-tech industries with conventional investment methods. We must learn from foreign successful experiences.
Test, vigorously develop the venture capital industry, promote the industrialization of high-tech achievements, cultivate Microsoft in China and Intel in China, and establish China's own high-tech industrial cluster.
⑶ Cultivate outstanding talents and actively implement the policy of rejuvenating the country through science and education. In the final analysis, the competition in the era of knowledge economy is the competition of talents. Without excellent scientific and management talents, it is impossible to produce world-class scientific and technological achievements and world-class high-tech industries. Therefore, we should speed up the reform of the education system, improve the quality of the whole people and cultivate high-tech talents in China.
3. Actively implement the policy of opening to the outside world and fully integrate into the process of world economic development.
Facing the world economy at the turn of the century, opportunities and challenges coexist. We should go to the world with a more positive attitude, improve the all-directional, multi-level and wide-ranging opening-up pattern, bring China's economy into the world economic cycle, make full use of foreign markets and resources, and give full play to the role of foreign trade in promoting economic development.
(1) Accelerate the pace of joining the World Trade Organization.
(2) Continue to reform the financial system and actively open the financial market. The United States is one of the countries with the most open financial system in the world and one of the countries least affected by the financial crisis. In recent years, the countries that have experienced financial crisis are all countries with poor openness of financial markets or problems in opening methods. Therefore, the best way to open the financial market, realize financial liberalization and prevent financial crisis is how and when to open it. We should continue to reform the financial system according to our own timetable and actively and steadily open the financial market.