00 hours review/Sanshan

If China uses its increasingly modern and powerful armed forces, it can easily control the disputed areas in the South China Sea. Compared with China, the Philippine army is insignificant and far from being an opponent. However, even after more than two months of confrontation with the Philippines, China is still cautious not to use conventional weapons to resolve the dispute over Huangyan Island.

Beijing decided not to send warships for several reasons. The Philippines is an ally of the United States. If the PLA directly intervenes in the conflict and controls the disputed waters, China is not sure whether the United States will intervene.

In recent years, China has taken more and more confident actions in disputed islands and maritime boundaries in the South China Sea and the East China Sea. This leads to anxiety and alienation in neighboring countries. The last thing China wants is for these countries to join forces with the United States against China.

This has brought a major foreign policy management problem to Beijing. At present, China is preparing for the leadership transition. At this sensitive moment, coupled with the economic slowdown, China needs a stable surrounding environment. Therefore, Beijing decided not to use "hard power". Instead, it used more moderate paramilitary forces and diplomatic and economic means to put pressure on the Philippines.

China's paramilitary fleet is increasing day by day. Some are equipped with light weapons, while others are unarmed. In the future, China may still prefer to use such vessels to expand its influence, and to maintain its claim to about 80% of the South China Sea and other forms of jurisdiction.

In fact, there are nine marine institutions in China, which belong to different departments. They are increasingly involved in disputed waters, so they are sometimes called "sea-building in Kowloon". The five institutions negotiating with Japan are the largest and most active among them, while the fishery administration of China and the maritime patrol department of China have attracted the most attention in the disputed waters of the South China Sea and the East China Sea in recent months.

Earlier this month, a senior patrol official in China said that by 2020, the number of Chinese sea surveillance vessels will exceed 520, almost twice the current scale, and the number of personnel will increase from the current 9,000 to 6,543,800+0.5 million. A few years ago, the relevant person in charge of the China Maritime Supervision Corps hinted that the sea surveillance would act as an agent for the navy. According to a report of the International Crisis Group in April this year, China's "Kowloon" is competing to expand and strive for more budget, which is stimulating the tension in the South China Sea and making it more difficult to solve the problem.

However, this paramilitary policy also carries risks: if reinforcements are needed, China's regular army will intervene, which may lead to armed conflicts with other Southeast Asian countries. China and foreign analysts have warned that without stricter centralized control and allowing competing maritime law enforcement agencies to continue to expand rapidly, China may bring the above dangers.

00, the media will China's current practice in Huangyan Island and the reasons for not using conventional armed forces to resolve the dispute over Huangyan Island are "summarized" as follows:

00 1. The Philippines is an ally of the United States. If the PLA is directly involved in the conflict, will the United States intervene?

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In my opinion, whether the United States is involved should be one of the factors that China should consider. Because China is unwilling to have a direct conflict with the United States, if there is a conflict between the two great powers, it will bring great harm and danger to both sides. Americans must have seen this, so the top leaders of China and the United States will not go to war rashly for the dispute between China and the Philippines.

However, although this factor will also impose some constraints on China, if the Philippines takes this opportunity to take aggressive actions against China, including sending warships to the waters off Huangyan Island to harass or use force against our law enforcement official ships and fishing boats, it does not rule out that China will use non-peaceful means to solve the problem. Presumably, in this case, the United States has no excuse to intervene. So the United States will not let the Philippine provocation develop to the point where China uses force? The United States may restrict Philippine behavior and try to avoid the danger of direct conflict with China.