In this lecture, Mr. Lu mainly explained the cognitive deviation "overconfidence" that is most likely to occur in the information output stage, and comprehensively expounded the definition, reasons, advantages and disadvantages, influencing factors and how to avoid overconfidence.
Self-confidence is people's cognition of their own abilities, while overconfidence means people think they are better than themselves.
For example, if you ask an entrepreneur a question, can your company live for five years? More than 80% people answered yes, but in fact, less than one third of people can live for five years, which means that most entrepreneurs are overconfident.
In fact, normal people are overconfident.
According to the research of evolutionary psychology, overconfidence is formed in a long evolutionary process, and overconfident people will appear smarter and stronger than they actually are, which is beneficial to individual inheritance.
Overconfidence makes it easier for people to survive in society, but in financial markets, overconfidence makes people ignore risks and make mistakes more easily.
Professional knowledge, experience and information accumulation will affect overconfidence.
Experts are more likely to be overconfident. When dealing with simple problems, experts will handle them well, but if the problems are more complicated, experts are more likely to be overconfident.
People who have experienced a bull market are more confident, those who have experienced a bear market are more pessimistic, and those who have experienced a bull and bear are more objective.
The more information you know, the easier it is for you to be confident. If you accumulate to a certain extent and exceed your ability, you will be overconfident.
The authorities are obsessed with bystanders. If they want to avoid overconfidence, they should stay out of it and make choices from the perspective of bystanders.
Or stand at a higher angle and overlook the puzzle.
Information output is decision-making, and buying and selling are decision-making, so Teacher Lu gave a comprehensive explanation of overconfidence. After listening to it, I feel that my understanding of overconfidence is not very deep, and I need more thinking and practice.
Learning knowledge and accumulating information can improve our ability and cognitive level. Without knowledge, information accumulation cannot be used by us. Knowledge is lower than information, and there is no ceiling for our ability to improve. We need to constantly acquire knowledge and information, but at a certain moment, knowledge, information and ability are fixed.
Cognition is different. Cognition is the understanding of one's own ability and the matching degree between external things and one's own ability.
Overconfidence is more about cognition.
Knowing is equivalent to knowledge, and doing it is equivalent to forming a kind of ability and completing a thing on the basis of a correct understanding of yourself.
Some people say that knowing and doing is the distance from the earth to the moon, because there are many obstacles from learning knowledge to forming ability and completing one thing according to one's own cognition.
Overconfidence is not only bad, but also bad. If we are overconfident, we will be better than the actual situation. What are the advantages?
If we are overconfident, we will appear better than our true selves, and we will get some opportunities. If these opportunities can improve our abilities in turn, then our overconfidence is valuable.