For more information on the 3000-word Situation and Policy, please click on the College Students' Experience on the Belt and Road Situation and Policy, and click on the Situation and Policy Paper 1. Against the background of increasing world energy demand and further deterioration of the contradiction between supply and demand, two hot issues, the turmoil in West Asia and North Africa and the nuclear accident in Japan, have had a far-reaching impact on the world energy situation. The situation in West Asia and North Africa affects the regional energy production and transportation safety, which leads to the fluctuation of international oil prices and has a negative impact on the economic development of energy consuming countries. The nuclear accident in Japan has dealt a heavy blow to the global nuclear system and affected the nuclear power policies of countries around the world to varying degrees. In the long run, the dominant position of fossil energy is unshakable, and oil prices are still facing upward pressure, which brings new opportunities for the development of natural gas. Nuclear energy will not quit the historical stage, but it will take a long time to regain confidence in development. The competition among relevant countries for important potential energy producing areas such as the South China Sea and the Arctic will be further intensified.
China's energy security and industrial development are also troubled by these hot issues. China relies heavily on the energy supply in West Asia and North Africa, and the high oil price caused by the turmoil also makes China face more serious imported inflation. Although China has not given up the development of nuclear energy, it has obviously slowed down.
First of all, the current global energy situation
Energy has always been an important issue related to the economic development and people's lives of all countries in the world. At present, energy consumption continues to grow strongly, and the contradiction between supply and demand has further deteriorated. Fossil energy occupies a dominant position in the total energy consumption in the world. At present, most of the energy in the world is still in the hands of western countries. Other energy sources, especially new energy sources, are developing rapidly, but it will take time to make substantial progress. It is difficult for international oil prices to return to a low level, and price fluctuations pose a severe challenge to both energy producers and consumers.
1, the relationship between energy supply and demand is generally tense.
Most of the time after entering 2 1 century, the energy supply is tight. During this period, although the overall supply and demand of global oil remained balanced, the supply slightly exceeded the demand, but this balance was very fragile. Often due to natural disasters, climate change, local wars, social unrest, terrorist activities and other reasons, in some countries and regions, some oil products are out of stock in some seasons or for a certain period of time, resulting in energy supply shortages such as oil shortage and electricity shortage in some countries and regions from time to time.
Generally speaking, energy production capacity is growing slowly, while energy consumption demand is rising rapidly. In recent 20 years, there are fewer and fewer newly discovered oil fields in the world, especially super-large oil fields. Among the four existing super oilfields in the world, the production of Kantare, Bourgain and Daqing oilfields in China has begun to decline, and only the Gawal oilfield in Saudi Arabia still maintains high production. In the future, the output of Russia's important oil and gas fields in western Siberia will also decline. In addition to exploring new output in western Siberia, it is also necessary to develop eastern Siberia and even the Arctic with backward infrastructure. Whether Russia can have enough funds to support development investment still faces uncertainty. At the peak of Russian oil production, it can reach 6.5438+0.05 million barrels per day, but by 2035, the daily output will drop to 9.7 million barrels. Although other countries are rich in resources, they restrict mining for various reasons. For example, the northern part of Alaska in the United States is rich in oil reserves, but in order to protect the ecological environment, oil is stored locally and exploitation is restricted for a long time.
With the sustained development of the world economy, especially the rapid growth of emerging economies, the demand and consumption of oil are rising, exceeding the growth of production. Although the economic crisis in 20 16 led to the first decline in oil demand since 1983, oil consumption turned down again in 20 16. It can be seen that the relief of oil supply is temporary, and the tight supply is the norm.
2. Speed up in an all-round way-diversification of energy structure
Under the current international financial turmoil, the downside risks of the global economy have increased and the external demand has fallen sharply. This directly gave birth to new changes in China's energy development strategy and management system.
Adjusting the energy structure and developing nuclear power bear the brunt. 201165438+1October 2 1, the first phase of Fujian fuqing nuclear power plant, the ninth nuclear power plant in China, started; 65438+February 65438+June, Guangdong Yangjiang Nuclear Power Station with a total investment of nearly 70 billion yuan officially started construction; On February 26th, 65438, Fangjiashan Nuclear Power Project, an expansion project of Qinshan Nuclear Power Station with a total investment of 26 billion yuan, started.
At this point, the world's largest nuclear power program is being gradually launched in China. It is understood that China will invest about 400 billion yuan in nuclear power before 2020.
Secondly, on February 5, 20 16, the "Ningdong Large Coal and Electricity Base" with a total investment of nearly 40 billion yuan was officially launched, which means that the "prelude" of coal resource integration sounded.
Third, Gansu Hexi Corridor, the coastal areas of northern Jiangsu and Inner Mongolia are planning to build 10 million kilowatt wind power bases. At present, the construction of 10 million kilowatts wind power base in Jiuquan, Gansu Province has been fully launched.
It is worth noting that in 20 16, China's foreign cooperation in the oil and gas field continued to accelerate: natural gas pipelines from China to Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan were opened; China and Russia also decided to build an oil and gas pipeline from Siberia, Russia to China.
According to reports, the second line project of west-east gas transmission has been approved by the state and will be fully implemented in a few days. This huge project with a total investment of 93 billion yuan will be connected with the natural gas pipeline in Central Asia. This is the first large-scale pipeline project in China to introduce foreign natural gas, and the steel alone will cost 4 million tons. If we consider the pipeline reconstruction and construction in cities along the line, * * * can boost the investment by 300 billion yuan. At the same time, the second phase of the 26.8 million cubic meters oil reserve project has also been planned and completed, and the construction of Chengdu10,000,000-ton refinery is about to start.
Zhang said that the commencement of these major projects is a practical measure to deal with the financial crisis, and it also shows that China's energy strategy is gradually being realized. Intensify the adjustment of energy structure, eliminate backward production capacity, intensify the integration and reorganization of energy enterprises, and build a modern, efficient and stable energy industrial system.
Zhou, a researcher at the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that the current situation has created a good opportunity for China's energy structure adjustment, and China's energy structure adjustment should take a diversified road in the future.
3, energy saving and consumption reduction-open source and reduce expenditure is the fundamental move.
65438+ 10/3, new york crude oil futures price closed at $37 and $59 per barrel. Some people worry that low oil prices may slow down investment in new energy sources.
Energy experts pointed out that the nature of non-renewable energy determines that the era of cheap is gone forever, and it is imperative to adjust the energy structure, save energy and reduce emissions.
Experts said that for China, a country with a large energy consumption and a small per capita resource, a diversified energy strategy will only cure the symptoms in the long run. Energy crisis and climate crisis, two major events that have increasingly influenced the world society and economy in the 2 1 century, have awakened all countries in the world. The fundamental way to solve the energy and climate problems lies in saving energy and reducing consumption.
It is estimated that 60% of China's energy-saving potential is in the industrial field. The economic efficiency of oil use in China is far lower than that in developed countries, and the efficiency of oil-using equipment is also lower than that in foreign countries, so there is great potential for fuel saving.
With the development of economy and society, the position and role of electricity in the overall energy is becoming more and more important. It is understood that in 20 16 years, the state will continue to implement "big pressure and small pressure" on traditional coal-fired power projects, and plans to shut down small thermal power units130,000 kilowatts. Relevant data show that by 20 16,10,000,000 kw small thermal power units have been shut down, and nearly two-thirds of the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" targets have been achieved.
Second, profoundly grasp the new situation of changes in the international energy pattern.
Energy is an important strategic material to support national economic and social development. At present, the international energy pattern is undergoing profound changes.
On the one hand, the existing energy production and consumption patterns are undergoing historic regional changes. In terms of consumption, the focus of energy consumption is shifting from western developed countries to the Asia-Pacific region, especially many developing countries. From the perspective of production, energy production is increasingly diversified. Although the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries still holds the initiative of global oil supply, oil exploration and development in the North Sea, Africa and the Gulf of Mexico are also accelerating. Even so, facts and research results show that the peak of international oil production is coming soon.
On the other hand, the development of new energy has revealed the dawn before dawn, and the energy supply structure is about to enter the next development cycle of energy substitution. At present, worldwide, the development and utilization of unconventional oil and gas resources such as oil sands, heavy oil, coalbed methane and natural gas hydrate, and new and renewable energy such as wind energy, solar energy and hydrogen energy have made progress to varying degrees. Among them, the former changes from the transfer of regional economic growth centers in the international scope, while the latter changes from the decline of the existing leading energy supply security and the pressure of environmental protection.
This change in the energy pattern has led to increasingly fierce competition for energy resources around the world, and at the same time accelerated the pace of technological development in the energy field. In this context, China, as a new developing country, has obviously accelerated the process of industrialization and urbanization, and its energy demand has entered a period of high growth. However, China's energy supply structure has been dominated by coal for a long time, which not only cannot meet the needs of national economic development, but also brings serious environmental pollution. According to BP's energy statistics, compared with the developed countries and the world average, the proportion of coal in China's primary energy consumption structure is 4 1 and 1 percentage point higher than the world average, while oil and natural gas are 15, 4 and 20, 1 percentage point lower than the world average. Due to the low supply guarantee capacity of domestic high-quality energy oil and natural gas, the dependence of China crude oil on foreign countries is increasing, reaching nearly 50%. At the same time, energy consumption (mainly coal) is one of the main causes of air pollution in China. About 70% of carbon dioxide emissions, 90% of sulfur dioxide emissions and 67% of nitrogen oxides emissions in the air of China come from coal burning. Almost all the soot emissions also come from this, accounting for more than half of the total suspended particulate matter pollution (TSp).
This relatively backward energy consumption structure, high dependence on foreign oil and high pollution of energy consumption not only lead to a series of serious problems such as the collapse of China's asset value system and the rising cost of production and living, but also encounter greater pressure in international negotiations on global climate change, which will also restrict the industrialization process of China in the long run. Therefore, it is particularly urgent to do everything possible to solve the long-term and strategic major problem of national energy security.
In the international energy market and the national energy supply security system, the role of energy enterprises is the first. Whether energy enterprises can grasp the historic opportunity of this pattern change not only determines the survival of enterprises, but also has an important impact on a country's long-term economic growth and international competitiveness. With the advantages of resources, technology and management, international oil companies such as Bp, Exxon and Shell have not only dominated the development of the international energy market in the past century, but also accelerated the pace of entering the field of new and renewable energy in recent years.
China's energy enterprises are latecomers in the international market, and there is a big gap between them in terms of resource acquisition, technology and management. If enterprise resources are invested in the development of new energy, it may be even more insufficient. However, we should also see that this pattern change is not only a risk, but also a huge opportunity for China energy enterprises. Huge domestic demand provides space for enterprises to improve economies of scale, improve management ability and accelerate technological progress. The development of new energy has narrowed the gap between domestic energy enterprises and international big companies, because this field is in the initial stage and the technical level gap is relatively small, which provides a rare opportunity for China enterprises to change from passive to active in the future competition.
Facing the historical moment when opportunities and challenges coexist, passive response can only mean giving up the initiative of development, becoming a vassal of multinational energy companies or even being eliminated. National energy security is out of the question, and the economic lifeline will fall into the hands of others. On the other hand, positive response means firmly grasping the development opportunities in the competition and building the competitiveness of enterprises on the adaptability to environmental changes, so that competitiveness can have vitality and sustainability. Historical experience has proved that whether we can judge the situation actively, sensitively and accurately and then make a correct strategic choice is an important premise and foundation for seizing opportunities and realizing sustainable development.
As an important state-owned backbone enterprise and national oil company, China Petroleum Group put forward the strategy of building a comprehensive international energy company, which is a positive response to the new opportunities, challenges and requirements it faces. This strategic decision has improved the ability of enterprises to pay attention to the world energy development trend and conform to the development laws and trends of the global petroleum and petrochemical industry, helped enterprises to realize the transformation from traditional oil companies to new energy companies facing the future and having international competitiveness, and made greater contributions to better safeguarding national energy security and promoting the sound and rapid development of the national economy.
The significance of this strategy is more specifically reflected in:
First of all, it is conducive to improving the international competitiveness of China Petroleum Group. The strategy of building a comprehensive international energy company includes supporting traditional energy sources, changing the energy supply structure, developing the value chain to improve the efficiency of energy development and utilization, globalization of energy development and utilization and internationalization of management. Therefore, this strategy is based on the reality and focuses on the future. Through technological progress, improvement of management ability and construction of value chain, it will help China Petroleum Group to overcome its disadvantages and fully participate in international competition.
Secondly, it is conducive to enhancing the position of China enterprises in international competition. Energy is the most basic input for enterprises. A clean, efficient and low-cost energy supply system will help China enterprises reduce the cost of providing goods and services, which is of decisive significance to enterprises in the increasingly global competition. China Petroleum Group's strategic idea of building a comprehensive international energy company is helpful to achieve this goal.
Finally, it is helpful to realize the sustainable development of the country. On the one hand, the country's sustainable development is reflected in its abundant energy, on the other hand, it is reflected in the improvement of people's quality of life. The strategic thinking of building a comprehensive international energy company will help China Petroleum Group to better participate in the competition between traditional energy resources and markets, as well as the development of new and renewable resources, and improve the flexibility of long-term energy supply structure. At the same time, the efficient and clean utilization of energy and the development of new energy are helpful to reduce the environmental pollution caused by energy utilization, improve people's quality of life and realize the harmonious development between people and the environment.
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