Model essay on national economics: papers on national economic management
Preface to chapter 1
In the long run, China's industrial structure economy has the same random change trend. Therefore, the industrial policy of controlling economic growth by adjusting and optimizing industrial structure is effective in China.
The irrationality of China's economic structure and the necessity of structural adjustment are an old topic. What should be affirmed is that China's economic structure has been adjusted since the reform and opening up. For example, the proportion of agriculture in GDP has declined; The proportion of primary products in foreign trade structure has been adjusted; However, with the development of economic globalization and China's entry into WTO, the adjustment and reorganization of economic structure has become a very urgent issue. Economic restructuring is a very complicated subject, which needs a lot of in-depth investigation and basic work.
Chapter two: the present situation of the three major industrial structures in China.
2. 1 Current situation of industrial structure
Industrial structure refers to the various industrial sectors of the national economy and their internal composition, as well as their economic relations and quantitative comparison, also known as the departmental structure of the national economy. On the basis of general division of labor and special division of labor, it is produced and developed through the organic combination of inter-industry relations. The so-called industrial optimization and upgrading means that with the improvement of economic development level or under the guidance of relevant government policies, the evolution of a country's industrial structure presents a process of development and optimization from low-level to high-level, that is, a process of promoting the rationalization and advanced development of industrial structure. Second, it refers to the development process of industrial individuals from labor-intensive to capital-and technology-intensive economic fields, that is, the evolution process of industries from low technology level and low added value to high technology and high added value.
Since the reform and opening up, especially since the beginning of the new century, in order to adapt to the overall situation and trend of global high-tech industry competition and development, China has adhered to the combination of institutional innovation and technological innovation, vigorously developed high-tech industries that have a breakthrough and significant driving role in economic growth, and effectively promoted the adjustment of industrial structure. According to the preliminary verification data of GDP in 20 10, the tertiary industrial structure is: 20120.2 billion yuan GDP, which is 321900 million yuan more than the preliminary accounting data, and the growth rate is 10.4% at constant prices, which is 0.65438 more than the preliminary accounting data. Among them, the added value of the primary industry was 4,053.4 billion yuan, an increase of 3.7 billion yuan over the preliminary accounting, with a growth rate of 4.3%, which was the same as the preliminary accounting. The added value of the secondary industry is 18758 1 billion yuan, an increase of1/billion yuan compared with the initial accounting, and the growth rate is 12.4%, which is 0.2 percentage points higher than the initial accounting. The added value of the tertiary industry was173.087 billion yuan, an increase of 208.2 billion yuan or 9.6% over the preliminary accounting, and an increase of 0. 1 percentage point over the preliminary accounting. According to preliminary verification, the primary industry accounts for 10. 1%, the secondary industry accounts for 46.8%, and the tertiary industry accounts for 43. 1%.
In recent years, the proportion of primary industry in China has been declining, and the proportion of tertiary industry has been further increased, which shows that the contribution rate of service industry to China's economy is getting higher and higher, and the tertiary industry needs to continue to develop vigorously. On the whole, China's three major industrial structures are relatively reasonable, gradually changing the relative proportion and technical association between industries, improving the overall efficiency of industrial structure and optimizing the industrial structure.
2.2 Problems in the industrial structure
2.2. 1 agricultural issues
Since the reform and opening up, China's agriculture and rural economy have made great progress, and the agricultural industrial structure has been constantly adjusted, forming a better pattern. However, there are still many problems in the current agricultural industrial structure.
(1) Agricultural infrastructure is still weak. Infrastructure such as water supply, power supply, transportation and communication is still far from perfect, and contradictions in some areas are still acute. For example, water shortage in North China and Northwest China is serious, which affects agricultural production and people's lives.
(2) The variety and quality structure of agricultural products are not optimized, and the quality rate of agricultural products is low. China's meat products such as cattle, sheep and pigs, fruit products such as apples and pears, flower products and aquatic products have obvious price advantages in the international market, but they are faced with the problems of few varieties and low quality.
(3) The processing industry of agricultural products is still in the primary stage, and the development of preservation, packaging, storage, transportation and sales systems is lagging behind, and the proportion of primary products and processed products is not harmonious. The ratio of output value of agricultural products processing industry to agricultural output value in developed countries is mostly above 2: 1, while that in China is only 0.43: 1, which is far from foreign countries.
(4) The regional distribution of agricultural products is unreasonable, the regional comparative advantages of various regions have not been fully exerted, and the distinctive regional distribution structure of agricultural products has not been formed.
2.2.2 Problems in the secondary industry
The gross expansion of the secondary industry is obvious, but the production structure is not reasonable enough, the structural upgrading is slow, and the quality of economic growth is not high. Mainly manifested in: (1) is at the bottom of the global value chain, and industrial upgrading is facing difficulties.
After 30 years of reform and opening up, China's economy has grown rapidly, and the cost advantage of mass production has made China the "world factory". However, China's comparative advantage is obtained by cheap labor to a considerable extent, which leads to the industrial competitive advantage mainly concentrated in low value-added non-core parts manufacturing and labor-intensive assembly, and it is difficult to improve the added value of products.
In the total export, the proportion of processing trade also exceeds 50%. This shows that even local enterprises rely heavily on orders from foreign enterprises, rather than relying on independent research and development and own products to explore the international market. This dependence on orders is another proof that China industry is at the bottom of the global value chain. Once the foreign market is weak, this model will be unsustainable. The financial crisis is a good example.
(2) The industrial R&D investment is insufficient and the technological innovation ability is poor. At present, China's manufacturing industry accounts for 6% of the world, while R&D investment only accounts for 0.3%. R&D investment is seriously insufficient, and the research team of industrial technology is seriously shrinking. The poor technological innovation ability of the industry leads to high dependence on foreign core technologies and key components, and enterprises cannot gain advantages in differentiated competition such as quality and innovation, so they can only maintain profits at low cost. This is an important reason why China enterprises are deeply involved in price wars in many fields, such as color TV, air conditioner and mobile phone.
2.2.3 Problems in the tertiary industry
The development of tertiary industry lags behind, and the internal structure needs further adjustment and improvement. China's tertiary industry is growing rapidly, playing the role of the main channel of employment, but there are some problems such as small total amount and unreasonable industrial structure, and its development level is lagging behind. In terms of the total amount, the added value of the tertiary industry accounts for a significantly lower proportion of GDP. At present, the proportion of tertiary industry in most developed countries is around 70%, while in most developing countries it is around 50%, while in China it hovers between 30% and 40% for a long time. From the perspective of the internal structure of the tertiary industry, developed countries mainly focus on emerging industries such as information, consulting, science and technology and finance. In China, the proportion of traditional service industries such as commercial catering, transportation and so on is relatively large, accounting for more than 40%; Basic services such as post and telecommunications, finance and insurance, and emerging services such as information consultation, scientific research and development, tourism, press and publication, radio and television have developed rapidly, but the proportion is still not high and the development is still insufficient.
2.3 Causes of problems in industrial structure
2.3. 1 Because China is a special developing country with a large population and abundant labor resources, the transfer of agricultural surplus labor from non-agricultural industries is the biggest driving force for China's economic growth; The relative shortage of capital, technology and other emerging resources has much less impact on economic growth than other countries. In the case that the number of rural surplus labor force is extremely large and the transfer to cities encounters various obstacles and restrictions, the transfer of rural surplus labor force in China mostly adopts the way of local transfer and embarks on a road of rural industrialization. However, due to this "rural industrialization" and the low income level of rural residents, their consumption level is low, and the development of service industry is limited by local demand. Industrial production can rely on the urban market, so most of the surplus agricultural labor force has been transferred to the rural secondary industry, especially the industry, while the tertiary industry has not developed rapidly.
The rapid growth of China's economy is mainly driven by the super-high growth of industry, which is mainly due to the super-high growth of township industries. The proportion of township industrial output value to the total industrial output value was 17.7% in 1985, increased to 29.7% in 1990, and further increased to 42.5% in 1995. However, the rapid development of township enterprises has little influence on the growth of the tertiary industry, mainly because the industrial structure of township enterprises is highly inclined to the secondary industry, which greatly deepens the deviation of the high proportion of industry and the low proportion of tertiary industry in China.
On the other hand, the shortage of funds, technology, management knowledge, talents, information and other resources in rural areas is more prominent, and technological upgrading and progress are far behind the speed of rural industrial expansion, and the upgrading of industrial structure is quite slow. However, the development of primary and tertiary industries is relatively backward, and the process of structural upgrading is affected accordingly. With the rapid increase in the proportion of township enterprises in the national economy, their industrial structure has become increasingly prominent, affecting the whole process of upgrading the industrial structure.
2.3.2 The deviation of China's industrial structure has much to do with the lagging influence left by one-sided emphasis on industrialization before the reform. Although there have been some changes in the past 20 years, this influence has not been fundamentally reversed. First of all, China promoted industrialization with a low per capita income. As a large developing country with a large population, China's per capita income level is very low due to its low level of economic development and large population. 1952 When industrialization began, the per capita GDP of China was only 1 19 yuan. In the twenty years before the reform, China's industrialization was greatly promoted under the condition of low per capita income. The increase in the proportion of industrial output value has almost lost contact with the change of per capita income level. 1978 The per capita GDP is only 379 yuan, which is obviously lower than the per capita income level as the starting point of industrialization in Chenery's "general model" on the relationship between per capita income level and industrialization change. In this year, the proportion of China's industry in GDP was 94.3%, which was 26.7% higher than that of 1952. This special phenomenon that the increase of industrial proportion is separated from the increase of per capita income level has brought about an impact that continues to this day.
Secondly, China promoted industrialization under the condition of backward marketization. In the early stage of industrialization in market economy countries, marketization has developed to a great extent, and the proportion of tertiary industry is high. With the progress of industrialization and the continuous development of marketization, the proportion of the tertiary industry continues to rise at a rate lower than the industrialization rate. However, in the early stage of industrialization, especially in the process of rapid industrialization, the degree of marketization and the proportion of tertiary industry were low, and the proportion of tertiary industry did not increase gradually, which led to the structural deviation of high proportion of secondary industry, especially industry, and low proportion of tertiary industry in the early stage of reform. After the reform, the urban tertiary industry developed rapidly in the 1980s, but it did not fundamentally change the situation of the tertiary industry. Since 1990s, this trend has deepened under the influence of the acceleration of rural industrialization and the tilt of economic growth structure. Finally, industrialization and urbanization are separated. Because China's industrialization was laid in the planned economy period, the difference between planned industrialization and market-driven industrialization is that the change of industrial structure and the change of demand structure are separated. Man-made factors lead to one-sidedness and hinder the formation and function of market mechanism in the process of industrialization. Before the reform, industrialization was mainly a kind of urban industrialization. Only a few farmers were arranged to work in cities in a planned way, and the rest of the rural population was excluded from the plan and remained in the countryside. As a result, urbanization is progressing slowly in the process of rapid industrialization, the proportion of rural population remains high, and the proportion of industrial output value rises sharply. At the same time, the proportion of agricultural employment remains high, and the surplus agricultural labor force cannot be transferred out. This kind of urbanization lags far behind industrialization, and it has not changed much until now. The lag of urbanization has had a serious impact on the industrial structure of China, mainly hindering the development of the tertiary industry and increasing the deviation of the industrial structure, because the development of the tertiary industry is related to urbanization, and only the expansion of the number and scale of cities can provide a broader space for the development of the tertiary industry.
Chapter III: Challenges and evolution direction of the new situation at home and abroad.
3. 1 Challenges of the international environment
Although China's industrial structure has made a qualitative leap before the reform and opening up, our industrial structure is facing the historical mission of transformation and upgrading under the dual influence of internal and external environment. From the international environment, the financial crisis triggered by the American subprime mortgage crisis has evolved into a global economic crisis. At present, the developed economies such as the European Union, Japan and the United States are all in recession, and some countries only show signs of partial recovery. The World Bank and other institutions still lowered their expectations for future economic growth, and the global economy will enter a period of slow growth.
At the same time, China's effective export demand has declined, foreign investment is not prosperous, and investment demand and consumer demand have fallen sharply, which has led to the continuous contraction of enterprise business and the minimization of new investment. It can be seen that the economic crisis is also a process of survival of the fittest. Some old industries and technologies have to withdraw from the battlefield, and it is an inevitable choice to adopt new industries and technologies. Some enterprises take advantage of this international situation to upgrade their industries. At this time, the difficulty and risk of industrial upgrading are greatly increased.
The continuous expansion of China's foreign trade volume, the increase of trade friction and the rapid appreciation of its currency make it more and more difficult for China to export labor-intensive products. The economic recession in Europe, America and China has also cast a shadow over the export of Japanese products, so excessive dependence on external demand has exposed the fragility of China's industrial structure and led to the instability of China's economic growth.
3.2 Challenges of the domestic environment
In addition to the unfavorable external economic environment, the development dilemma of China's industry is also restricted by internal factors. After 30 years of rapid development, China's economy is gradually entering the economic transition period. Although the economic growth in the past 30 years has increased the proportion of capital and labor, China's economic growth still mainly depends on the expansion of low-level production capacity, that is, while the production capacity is growing rapidly, the rising speed of soft power is relatively lagging behind, and some technologies will have to continue to be attached to developed countries, so it is difficult to form their own independent innovative products. Even if enterprises strengthen R&D investment, our comprehensive design and development ability and international competitiveness are still at a low level; At the same time, China enterprises lack high-level transnational talents, the level of overseas expansion personnel is weak, and the international market development ability has not been expanded accordingly.
At present, China's factor endowment structure is characterized by relatively abundant ordinary labor force, relatively scarce high-end talents and relatively scarce capital such as information technology. China products, which have long relied on the low-cost advantages of production factors, are losing their competitiveness. With the upgrading of factor endowment structure and the evolution of comparative advantage, China's industrial development must begin to change from labor-intensive to technology-intensive and knowledge-intensive. This transformation requires China enterprises to speed up the pace of industrial upgrading and realize the transformation of economic development mode. At present, the dual effects of China's economic transformation and global economic slowdown make China's economy face more severe challenges. Under this background, whether China industry can seize the historical opportunity, choose the correct upgrading path and accelerate the pace of industrial structure adjustment is the key to the healthy and sustainable development of China's economy.
3.3 the evolution direction of the three major industries
The overall judgment of the three major trends of industrial structure changes is that the intermediate stage of China's industrialization process may last until after 2020. Among the primary, secondary and tertiary industries, the dominant pattern of the secondary industry is unlikely to change before 2020. "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" to 2020, the proportion of primary industry income will continue to decline; The proportion of the secondary industry is likely to increase during the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period, and may start to decline after reaching the peak at around 20 10. The proportion of tertiary industry is basically stable during the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period, and may be greatly improved after 20 10.
1. The basic position of agriculture has not changed.
The proportion of agriculture in the national economy will continue to decline, but its importance and basic position will not change. In traditional agriculture, the proportion of planting will decrease, and the contribution of fishery and animal husbandry will increase. Within the planting industry, the proportion of food crops will gradually decrease, and the proportion of cash crops, melons and vegetables crops and other crops will increase.
2. Adjustment of industrial internal structure
(1) The stage of heavy industrialization is insurmountable. Hoffman's law shows that in the middle and late stage of industrialization, the industrial structure tends to be heavily industrialized, which is a universal law in the process of industrialization in many countries. According to international experience, during the period when the per capita GDP climbed from 1000 USD to 3,000 USD, the consumption structure of residents was continuously upgraded, that is, from food and clothing, durable consumer goods to housing, to food and clothing, improving living conditions, improving the quality of durable consumer goods and expanding service consumption. Accordingly, automobile, housing, building materials, communication and other industries will develop by leaps and bounds, which will promote the rapid development of heavy chemical industries such as steel, machinery, building materials, chemicals, electronics and communication equipment manufacturing. Developing heavy chemical industry is an inevitable trend.
(2) Information industry will become the leading industry in China in the future. According to statistics, from 1985 to 2003, the export of high-tech industries in the world grew at an average annual rate of 14.3%, which was 5-6 percentage points higher than that of low-tech and low-tech industries. High-tech industries are gradually replacing traditional industries and becoming the dominant manufacturing industry.
At present, China is one of the largest consumers of IT products in the world, and it is also a country that participates in the international division of labor of information industry manufacturing. The eastern coastal areas of China have concentrated a large amount of human capital necessary for the development of information industry. At the same time, the low labor cost makes China's IT manufacturing industry have strong international competitiveness. By participating in the international division of labor in IT manufacturing industry, China can not only achieve full employment, but also obtain higher comparative benefits. Through continuous "learning by doing" and "learning by using", China will gradually accumulate strong IT industry technology development capabilities. Information industry should and can become the leading industry in China in the future.
Model essay on national economy II: Statistical analysis of national economy
abstract
As a very important part of it, consumer demand has a very important impact on aggregate demand, and then has a significant impact on the formulation of aggregate demand policy, and then affects the balanced development of macro-economy. Firstly, this paper establishes a model, studies the factors affecting national consumption by SPSS software, and tests the economic significance and statistical inference of the model analysis results. Finally, it is concluded that the income level of residents has the most significant influence on the consumption level, followed by other factors. Through the analysis of the use structure of consumption expenditure, we can understand the changing trend of residents' living standards. Whether urban residents or rural residents, Engel's coefficient decreases with the passage of time, which shows the improvement of the overall living standards of Chinese residents. By comparing and analyzing the contribution rates of consumption demand, investment demand and import and export demand to GDP growth, it is concluded that the contribution rate and pulling effect of consumption and investment to economic growth are obviously greater than that of net exports, and economic growth relies too much on investment, while consumption demand still has great room for development.
Keywords: national consumption, consumption structure, consumption demand
First, study the significance of national consumption
According to the analysis of economics, social demand includes consumption demand, investment demand and net export. As a very important part of it, consumer demand has a very important impact on aggregate demand, and then has a significant impact on the formulation of aggregate demand policy, and then affects the balanced development of macro-economy.
At present, it is both conditional and necessary for China to promote economic development by expanding domestic demand, especially consumer demand. First of all, China is in the development stage of optimizing and upgrading the consumption structure of residents. High savings rate and huge domestic market potential provide material conditions for stimulating demand growth. Secondly, the subsistence consumption demand of China residents has been basically met, and it is in the process of upgrading the developmental consumption demand. However, the industrial product structure, income distribution structure, regional coordinated development degree and consumption policies and concepts seriously lag behind the demand of consumption structure upgrading, which not only leads to the reduction of consumption demand, but also has a negative impact on social production. Therefore, we must expand domestic demand and promote economic growth.
Regarding how to expand domestic demand, the Central Economic Conference once pointed out that increasing household consumption is the key point. Theoretically speaking, the specific content of consumer demand is mainly reflected in the consumption structure. To increase residents' consumption, we should start with the study of residents' consumption structure. Only by understanding the changing trend and law of residents' consumption structure and grasping the hot spots and development direction of consumption demand can we provide consumers with a good policy environment, guide consumers to expand their consumption reasonably, promote the coordination of industrial structure adjustment and consumption structure optimization and upgrading, and promote the stable and healthy development of the national economy.
Second, the analysis of factors affecting consumption level
(A) the establishment and solution of the model
The consumption level of residents is influenced by many factors, such as income level, consumer price index and Engel coefficient. The following table gives the relevant data of consumption level from 199 1 to 20 10. Based on the data in table 1 and table 2, the multiple linear regression models of three influencing factors of urban and rural residents' consumption level are established respectively, and the stepwise regression analysis is carried out.
(2) Model test
1, according to the regression results for economic significance test: town: y? 4672.999? 0.736x 1？ 5.937x2？ 52.900x3 countryside: y? 470.486? 0.72 1x 1？ 1.793x2？ 8.827x3, it is known that the previous coefficients of x 1 are 0.736 and 0.72 1, respectively, indicating that the per capita disposable income of urban residents (per capita net income of rural residents) will increase by 1 yuan when the consumer price index of urban residents and Engel coefficient of urban residents remain unchanged. The absolute number of urban (rural) residents' consumption level increased by 0.736 yuan (0.72 1 yuan) on average, which is consistent with the conclusion that the increase of residents' income level has obvious influence on the change of residents' consumption level, and the income level of residents is an important reason for the increase of consumption level.
2. Statistical inference test
(1) goodness of fit test:
From the above analysis data, it can be seen that the determination coefficients r of the two models are 0.994 and 0.998, respectively, and the adjusted determination coefficients are 0.992 and 0.998. It can be seen that the relationship between explanatory variables and explained variables is very close, which shows that the model has a very good fitting effect on the sample, and explanatory variables can explain the deviation of explained variables by 99.4% and 99.8%.
(2) the significance test of equation &; Mdashf test
Given the significance level? =0.05, it can be seen from the table that F=823.034(3 195. 1), and the degree of freedom in the f distribution table is k=3, n? k？ 1? The critical value 2F is 4? 3,46.59, due to 0.05
F & gtF0.05？ 3,4? Therefore, it is considered that at the significance level of 5%, there is a significant linear relationship between y and x 1, x2, X3 and x3, and the regression equation is significant, that is, the per capita disposable income of urban residents (per capita net income of rural residents), the consumer price index of urban residents (rural consumer price index) and the Engel coefficient of urban residents (Engel coefficient of rural residents) have significant effects on the explained variables.
(3) significance test of variables; Mdash T-test for a given significance level? =0.05, look up the t distribution table and get the critical value t of 4 degrees of freedom? 4? =2.776, due to the regression analysis table: 0.025
Town: t 1? 25.622，t20.37 1，t3 1.956
Rural areas: t 1? 37.832，t2？ 0.8 12, t3 1.838 as can be seen from the inspection, the town of t 1? 2.776 is significant, but t2? 2.776，t3？ 2.776 are all papers on statistical analysis of national economy, rural t 1? 2.776，t2？ 2.776，t3？ 2.776 is also not significant, that is, it can be considered that the consumer price index and Engel's coefficient have no significant influence on the consumer level, and the model can be introduced as an explanatory variable when establishing the model. Residents' income level has a significant impact on residents' consumption level.
conclusion
Through the analysis of the factors affecting the consumption level, it is concluded that the income level of residents has the most significant influence on the consumption level, followed by other factors. Through the analysis of the use structure of consumption expenditure, we know that the proportion of life consumption will decrease, while the proportion of enjoyment consumption and development consumption will increase. The analysis of Engel's coefficient shows that the Engel's coefficient decreases with the passage of time for both urban residents and rural residents, which shows the improvement of the overall living standards of Chinese residents. By comparing and analyzing the contribution rates of consumption demand, investment demand and import and export demand to GDP growth, it is concluded that the contribution rate and pulling effect of consumption and investment to economic growth are obviously greater than that of net exports, and economic growth relies too much on investment, while consumption demand still has great room for development. We must completely abandon the concept of "investment first" and firmly establish the idea of "consumption first". Only by taking expanding consumption as the fundamental goal and motive force of economic growth can we continuously improve and improve people's living standards and quality of life.
refer to
[1] Li Baoyu. Statistical analysis of national economy [M]. China Statistics Publishing House, 2002.
[2] Xu, Gong Deen, Wu. "New thinking on production function-theoretical research and empirical analysis" [3] Pan Wenqing, Li Zinai, Zhang Wei. 2 1 Prospects for China's Economic Growth in the First 20 Years of the Century