With the establishment and perfection of China's socialist market economic system and the implementation of the spirit of the Resolution of the Central Committee on Several Major Issues concerning the Reform and Development of State-owned Enterprises adopted by the Fourth Plenary Session of the 15th CPC Central Committee, the market system is becoming more and more perfect, more and more enterprises are fully introduced to the market, and the requirements for enterprise behavior are becoming more and more standardized and scientific. It is particularly important to evaluate and analyze the solvency, profitability and overall level of the enterprise's survival and development foundation. In practice, we found that the commonly used profitability analysis indicators, such as return on net assets, sales profit rate and cost profit rate, the commonly used solvency analysis indicators, such as liquidity ratio and asset-liability ratio, and the enterprise performance evaluation indicators promulgated by the Ministry of Finance, the State Economic and Trade Commission, the Ministry of Personnel and the State Planning Commission can meet the requirements of solvency, profitability and overall evaluation and analysis to a certain extent, but there are shortcomings. This paper attempts to discuss the limitations and misunderstandings of commonly used solvency analysis indicators and profitability analysis indicators from the problems that should be paid attention to when applying enterprise performance evaluation results and evaluation indicators, and puts forward some improvement measures. Improve indicators and methods, discuss with you and ask for your opinions.

First, the application of enterprise performance evaluation results and evaluation indicators should pay attention to several issues.

(-) Critical value index analysis

Enterprise performance evaluation is a false operation of enterprise financial benefits. Comprehensive evaluation of solvency, development capacity and other factors. Therefore, when the evaluation results are used in specific projects or some indicators are selected for specific target evaluation (such as the evaluation of credit and planned investment projects, etc.). ), the main financial indicators should be analyzed and compared horizontally and vertically. For example, according to the relevant provisions of enterprise performance evaluation: when the net assets are negative, the return on net assets and capital accumulation rate and the initial evaluation score are calculated as 0; The single correction coefficient of asset preservation and appreciation rate, operating loss rate and three-year average capital growth rate is calculated as 1 In this way, due to the influence of index values such as coefficients, the index values of enterprise performance evaluation may still be high. It is obviously unreasonable to apply this evaluation result to the evaluation of credit and invested enterprises, because the net assets are negative, that is, the assets are insolvent. According to the relevant regulations of enterprise bankruptcy in China, such enterprises may go bankrupt and liquidate at any time.

This example, on the one hand, tells us that enterprise performance evaluation is the deepening and sublimation of enterprise financial analysis. Although it makes up for the deficiency that it is difficult to draw a comprehensive conclusion by simple financial indicators, we can't see the specific problems, potential problems and the crux of the problems from the "logo" of enterprise performance evaluation. Therefore, when we apply the evaluation results, we should also analyze the financial indicators of enterprises in depth; On the other hand, it also tells us that we should pay special attention to the analysis of some key financial indicators when analyzing financial indicators in depth.

In addition, we should also pay attention to the critical values of non-financial indicators and non-measurement indicators. Non-financial indicators generally include safety production indicators and environmental protection indicators, and the minimum requirement stipulated by the state is its critical value. Non-metric indicators have various definitions. The eight non-metric evaluation indexes of enterprise performance evaluation are a relatively comprehensive non-metric index system, and the standard value of the difference (E) level of each index is its critical value. For example, the poor (e) standard of the evaluation index of "the basic quality of leading bodies" is "the leading bodies of enterprises are not United enough, the main leaders are ineffective, or they abuse power for personal gain, make many mistakes in decision-making, reduce the efficiency of enterprises and complain a lot from employees".

When the basic quality of enterprise leaders has the basic characteristics of poor (E) level, it should be further analyzed.

(b) Analysis of data sources used for index calculation

Enterprise performance evaluation takes financial indicators as the main content and return on net assets (return on investment) as the core; The value of financial indicators directly affects the evaluation results of enterprise operating efficiency and operator performance. We know that the data for calculating the value of financial indicators comes from accounting statements, which are compiled according to the accounting books confirmed by accrual basis and historical cost principle. Therefore, in the application of enterprise performance evaluation results and indicators, we should pay attention to the following aspects:

1. Old enterprises without assets appraisal and reconciliation. The items in the balance sheet of such enterprises, especially the asset items, and the index values calculated from them are far from those of newly established enterprises and enterprises that have recently evaluated reconciliation. Therefore, the calculated values of financial indicators of such enterprises should be further analyzed.

2. Data of accounting statements that have not been audited and adjusted by independent audit institutions. Because this kind of enterprise has not been adjusted according to the unified accounting policy and accounting system of the country, the data of its accounting subjects and corresponding accounting subjects are lack of comparability, and the calculated index values are also lack of comparability.

3. Virtual assets such as prepaid expenses, net loss of current assets to be processed, net loss of fixed assets to be processed, start-up expenses, long-term prepaid expenses, accounts receivable with higher aging, inventory depreciation and backlog losses, investment losses and fixed assets losses may all generate potential assets. These two types of assets are generally called non-performing assets. If the total amount of non-performing assets is close to or exceeds the net assets, it not only shows that there may be problems in the sustainable operation ability of the enterprise, but also shows that the enterprise has formed an "asset bubble" in the past few years because of artificially exaggerating profits; If the increase and range of non-performing assets exceed the increase and range of total profits, it means that the data in the current income statement of the enterprise is "moisture".

4. Related party transactions. Through the analysis of the operating income and total profit of affiliated enterprises, it is judged to what extent the profitability of enterprises depends on affiliated enterprises, whether the profit base of enterprises is solid and whether the profit sources are stable. If the business income and profits of enterprises mainly come from affiliated enterprises, we should pay special attention to the pricing policy of affiliated transactions and analyze whether enterprises whitewash accounting statements with affiliated transactions in the form of unequal exchange. If the total profit of the consolidated accounting statements of the parent company is much lower than that of the enterprise, it may mean that the parent company "packages" the profits into the enterprise through related party transactions.

5. Non-main business profit. Through the proportion of other business profits, investment income, subsidy income and non-operating income to the total profit of the enterprise, this paper analyzes and evaluates the stability of the profit source of the enterprise, especially the enterprise that reorganizes its assets

6. Cash flow. By comparing and analyzing the net cash flow generated by operating activities, net cash flow generated by investment activities and net cash flow, we can judge the quality of profit, investment income and net profit of an enterprise. If the net cash flow of an enterprise is lower than the profit for a long time, it will mean confirming that the assets corresponding to the profit may belong to virtual assets that cannot be converted into cash flow.

(3) Analysis of external precautions

Non-metric evaluation index of enterprise performance evaluation is a very important content of off-balance sheet matters of enterprises. In the application, we should not only pay attention to the analysis of its impact on enterprises, but also pay attention to the analysis of the following off-balance sheet major issues, as shown in the following table: (omitted)

In addition, it should be noted that the essence of enterprise performance evaluation is the performance evaluation of state-owned capital, which mainly serves enterprise supervision. The management and financial supervision of state-owned capital, the assessment of leading bodies and the income distribution of operators reflect the functions of state owners. Marx once said: "There are two kinds of power before us, one is property power; The other is political power, which is the power of the state. " Two kinds of powers derive two different functions, namely, the owner function of the country and the social management function. The enterprise performance evaluation reflects this kind of property right and the owner function of the country. It serves the political power and social management functions of the country and plays a certain role through it. Therefore, enterprise performance evaluation has better adaptation conditions and environment for the evaluation of holding and wholly-owned subsidiaries, and plays a greater role, while the evaluation of equity investment and creditors and debtors is poor and plays a smaller role. We should pay attention to this.

Second, the improvement and perfection of common solvency analysis and evaluation indicators

(A) the reason of current (speed) dynamic ratio limitation and improvement methods

1. Reason for restriction

① This is mainly due to the interests of accounting information data providers and information asymmetry, and the data for calculating the flow (speed) ratio are often distorted.

According to modern enterprise theory, the essence of an enterprise is "the connection of a series of contracts". Due to the conflict of interests between the parties to the contract, the profit-seeking nature of economic man and the incompleteness of the contract, some parties to the contract have the motivation and opportunity to manipulate profits by changing accounting data to maximize their own interests, which leads to the distortion of the data for calculating the flow (speed) ratio.

The theory of information economics also tells us that in the case of widespread information asymmetry, because agents always have more information than clients, when the information is accounting information, agents have the motivation to manipulate profits and turn information advantage into interest advantage. Therefore, it is possible to beautify the financial indicators of enterprises through some accounting treatment and trading activities, that is, the so-called whitewashing effect. These accounting treatment and trading activities used to beautify the financial indicators of enterprises will also lead to data distortion in calculating the flow (speed) ratio.

The same is true in practice. The author makes an empirical study and analysis on the profit manipulation behavior of A-share companies from the problems involved in the audit report issued by 1998 and the audit report issued by certified public accountants with explanatory opinions. It is found that there are many phenomena of profit manipulation, among which the most ways to manipulate profits are to reduce sales costs and increase deposits, and the result will be calculation flow (.

② The current (speed) ratio cannot quantitatively reflect the potential liquidity factors and short-term debts.

Current (current) ratio is to measure the liquidity of an enterprise through the relationship between the scale of current (current) assets and the scale of current liabilities, and to judge the ability of an enterprise to convert short-term debts into cash to repay current liabilities before the maturity of current liabilities. In fact, because all the data for calculating the current (speed) ratio index value come from accounting statements, some factors that increase the liquidity and short-term debt burden of enterprises are not reflected in the data of the statements, which will affect the short-term solvency of enterprises, and some even have a greater impact.

The main factors to increase enterprise liquidity are:

Available bank loan index: the bank loan amount agreed by the bank but not handled by the enterprise can increase the cash of the enterprise at any time and improve the payment ability. This data is not reflected in the statements, and should be explained in the financial statements when necessary.

Long-term assets ready to be realized soon: For some reason, enterprises may sell some long-term assets quickly and convert them into cash to increase their short-term solvency. Under normal circumstances, enterprises should carefully consider the sale of long-term assets, and enterprises should correctly decide the issue of selling long-term assets according to the dialectical relationship between short-term interests and long-term interests.

Reputation of solvency: If an enterprise has always had a good long-term solvency and a certain reputation, it can improve its short-term solvency by issuing bonds and stocks when it is difficult to pay its debts in the short term, so as to quickly solve the shortage of funds. This factor to increase liquidity depends on the enterprise's own reputation and the financing environment at that time.

Factors to increase the short-term debt of enterprises:

Recorded contingent liabilities: Contingent liabilities are possible debts. According to China's accounting standards for business enterprises, these contingent liabilities are not recorded as liabilities and are not reflected in the statements. Only the discounted commercial acceptance bills are listed as bills at the bottom of the balance sheet, and other contingent liabilities, including compensation that may be caused by the quality problems of the products sold, adverse consequences that may be caused by unresolved tax disputes, litigation cases and economic disputes that may lose the case and need compensation, are not reflected in the statements. Once these contingent liabilities become actual liabilities, it will increase the debt repayment burden of enterprises.

Liabilities arising from guarantee liability: The enterprise may provide guarantee for others with some liquid assets, such as providing guarantee for others to borrow from financial institutions, providing guarantee for others to shop, and providing guarantee for others to perform relevant economic responsibilities. This kind of guarantee may become a liability of the enterprise and increase the debt repayment burden.

improve one's method

In order to make up for the limitation of the current (speed) ratio and objectively evaluate the short-term solvency of enterprises, it is suggested to use the following three indicators to evaluate the short-term solvency of enterprises:

① Ultra-quick ratio. The over-speed assets of an enterprise (monetary funds, short-term securities, notes receivable and net money receivable from high-credit customers) are used to reflect and measure the liquidity of the enterprise and evaluate its short-term solvency. The calculation formula is as follows: (omitted)

Due to the calculation of quick ratio, in addition to deducting inventory, other items that may have nothing to do with the current cash flow (such as prepaid expenses) and important factors that affect the credibility of quick ratio (net accounts receivable of customers with low reputation of the project office) are excluded from current assets, so the liquidity and solvency of enterprises can be better evaluated.

② Debt cash flow ratio. Debt-to-cash flow ratio is an index that reflects the ability of enterprises to pay short-term liabilities in the current period from the perspective of cash flow. The calculation formula is as follows:

We know that the net cash flow from operating activities comes from the cash flow statement, and the year-end (initial) current liabilities come from the balance sheet. Because there may not be enough cash to pay off debts in the profit-making year, the cash flow ratio of liabilities based on cash basis can fully reflect the extent to which the net cash inflow from operating activities can ensure the repayment of current current liabilities and intuitively reflect the actual ability of enterprises to repay current liabilities. Therefore, it is more cautious to use this index to evaluate the solvency of enterprises.

③ Cash payment guarantee rate: it is an indicator to measure the development and change of the company's solvency from a dynamic perspective, reflecting that the company's actual available cash resources can meet the current cash payment level in a specific period. The formula is:

Available cash resources in this period include the opening cash balance plus the expected cash inflow in this period, and the expected cash payment in this period is the expected cash outflow.

The high guarantee rate of cash payment shows that the cash resources of the enterprise can meet the payment demand. If the proportion reaches 65,438+000%, it means that the available cash can just be used for cash payment. It stands to reason that this is an ideal level of protection, which not only ensures the demand for cash payment, but also minimizes the opportunity cost of retaining cash. If the ratio exceeds 100%, it means that the enterprise can still maintain a certain cash balance that does not meet the preventive and speculative needs after ensuring the payment demand, but if it exceeds too much, it may make the opportunity cost of holding cash exceed the benefits brought by meeting the payment, which is not in line with the principle of cost-benefit. If the ratio is lower than 100%, it will obviously weaken the normal payment ability of the enterprise and may lead to a payment crisis.

(B) the asset-liability ratio to assess the solvency of misunderstanding and evaluation criteria

1, misunderstanding

As an indicator reflecting the long-term solvency of enterprises, it is generally believed that the lower the asset-liability ratio, the less the debts of enterprises, the stronger the self-owned funds, the more stable the financial situation and the stronger the solvency. In fact, proper debt management plays an important role in the future development and scale expansion of enterprises. Some of them have developed rapidly and have a strong momentum. It is very beneficial for enterprises with broad prospects to obtain enough funds through loans and invest in high-return projects in the long run. On the contrary, some small-scale enterprises with poor profitability may have low asset-liability ratio, but it does not mean that they have strong solvency. Therefore, the analysis of the long-term solvency of enterprises depends not only on the asset-liability ratio, but also on the return on assets. If the profitability of its unit assets is strong, it is also allowed to have a higher asset-liability ratio. However, not all projects can get immediate returns once they are invested, especially those with high returns and long payback period, whose profits cannot be reflected in the current period, which makes the return on assets unable to correct the situation reflected by the asset-liability ratio.

2. Evaluation criteria

So, when is the asset-liability ratio of an enterprise reasonable? We think it mainly depends on the value of the enterprise. On the one hand, the high enterprise value shows that the enterprise has a high profit level, a large net cash flow generated by operating activities and a large amount of debt repayment funds; On the other hand, it also shows that the bank has high reputation, high possibility of obtaining bank loans and strong solvency.

According to the theory of enterprise value, enterprise value is equal to the value of debt-free enterprises plus the present value of tax-saving income minus the cost of financial crisis. As shown below: (omitted)

Debt interest expense is the pre-tax cost, and the enterprise's debt interest can get certain tax saving benefits, and the value of tax saving is equal to the debt amount multiplied by the income tax rate.

The cost of financial crisis is the cost of financial difficulties caused by the rising debt ratio of enterprises. When the debt of an enterprise increases, lenders often demand high debt interest as compensation because of the increased financial risk of the enterprise, and this high interest becomes the cost of the enterprise. In extreme cases, the lender may refuse to give the loan completely, so the enterprise will have to give up those projects with higher profits that should be accepted, thus generating opportunity costs. In addition, the existing and potential customers of the enterprise may lose confidence in the sustainable operation ability of the enterprise, which is another form of financial crisis cost. Furthermore, if an enterprise encounters problems in cash flow or solvency, some legal expenses or accounting expenses will occur because the enterprise takes some financial measures. Finally, if the enterprise is forced to carry out the final liquidation, the assets of the enterprise are likely to be sold at a level lower than the market price, which is also a form of financial crisis cost.

Although there is no linear relationship between the financial crisis cost of an enterprise and its own debt ratio, practice has proved that the probability of financial crisis cost of an enterprise will increase after the debt reaches a certain proportion, and accordingly, the financial crisis cost of an enterprise will also increase. As shown in the figure, in the right half of point A 1, the cost of financial crisis increases sharply with the increase of debt.

Let's discuss the asset-liability ratio in the capital structure, and the enterprise has the greatest value. The functions of tax saving and financial crisis cost expressed by asset-liability ratio D are F(D) and G(D) respectively, and T is the income tax rate. From the knowledge of calculus, we know that it is expressed by the following formula: (omitted)

That is: g' (d) = t, and the determined asset-liability ratio d is the largest enterprise value. G'(D) is the marginal financial crisis cost, so the asset-liability ratio determined by the marginal financial crisis cost equal to the income tax rate is the best.

Third, the improvement and perfection of commonly used profitability evaluation indicators.

(A) the improvement of commonly used profitability evaluation indicators

1. ROE. There are two common calculation formulas for ROE. One denominator is the net assets at the end of the year, such as the return on net assets disclosed in the annual report and interim report of A-share companies stipulated by China Securities Regulatory Commission. The other denominator is the average of net assets at the beginning of the year and net assets at the end of the year. For example, in 2008, the return on net assets of +0999 issued by the Ministry of Finance and other four ministries and commissions was this form. These two forms of molecules are the net profit of the year. Because the numerator of ROE is the net profit of the current year, it is more reasonable to compare the denominator with the average of net assets at the beginning of the year and that of the current year, that is, it is more reasonable to adopt the latter form of calculation formula.

In profit distribution, cash dividend affects the net assets at the end of the year, thus affecting the return on net assets, while stock dividend does not affect the net assets at the end of the year, so it does not affect the return on net assets. As an index to evaluate the income of an enterprise in the current year, the calculated value should not be different because of different distribution schemes. Therefore, it is more reasonable to further increase the year-end net assets of the denominator to the annual net assets before profit distribution. The improved formula is: (omitted)

2. Return on total assets. The general meaning of the rate of return on total assets refers to that enterprises get paid in a certain period of time; The ratio of total amount to average total assets indicates the overall profitability of all assets of the enterprise, including liabilities and owners' equity, and the calculation formula is: (omitted)

Liabilities in the total assets of an enterprise are provided by creditors, who receive interest income from the enterprise (i.e. the debtor), corresponding to the interest expenditure of the enterprise (i.e. the debtor); The net assets (owner's equity) in an enterprise's total assets are shareholders' investments, and shareholders receive dividends from the enterprise, which corresponds to the net profit of the enterprise, that is, after-tax profit, rather than the total profit. Therefore, it is more reasonable to change the numerator in return on total assets's calculation formula into net profit and interest expense. The improved calculation formula is: (omitted)

Considering that the accounting data of its calculation indicators are confirmed according to the accrual basis principle, return on total assets is not a cash reward, but as a creditor and shareholder, it is often more concerned about the cash return, and the numerator of the calculation formula can be improved. The calculation formula is: (omitted)

3. Cost profit rate. The profit rate of cost and expense is the ratio of the total profit of an enterprise to the total cost of the enterprise in a certain period. This index is intended to evaluate the price paid by the enterprise to obtain income through the comparison of income and expenditure, and evaluate the income status of the enterprise from the perspective of consumption, so as to promote the enterprise to strengthen internal management, save expenditure and improve operating efficiency. We know that the total profit includes subsidy income, net non-operating income and expenses and other costs that do not match the cost. Therefore, it is more reasonable to change the numerator of the calculation formula of cost profit rate to operating profit. According to this idea, the improved calculation formula is as follows:

Cost, expense, profit rate-operating profit-cost.

(B) the improvement of commonly used profitability evaluation indicators

Under the condition of market economy, the cash flow of an enterprise determines the survival and development ability of the enterprise to a great extent, thus determining the profitability of the enterprise to a great extent. This is because if the cash flow of enterprises is insufficient, the cash flow is not smooth and the cash distribution is invalid, it will affect the formation and development of enterprises, and then affect the profitability of enterprises.

Common profitability evaluation indicators are basically calculated and evaluated based on accrual accounting data, such as return on net assets, return on total assets, cost profit rate, etc. They can't reflect the profitability of enterprises accompanied by cash inflows, and there are defects and deficiencies in evaluating the profitability of enterprises only by "quantitative" quantity rather than "qualitative" quantity.

In the practice of enterprises in China, it is common and serious that cash inflow lags behind profit recognition. The author once selected the accounting reports of A-share companies in 1998 annual report and 1999 interim report as samples for empirical analysis. About 67% of the samples are that cash inflow lags behind profit recognition, and about half of the companies lag behind profit recognition by more than one third. Therefore, when analyzing the total profitability evaluation of enterprises, it is very necessary to supplement and increase the indicators to evaluate the profitability of enterprises with cash inflows. The following are some indicators for reference.

1. Ratio of operating cash flow to sales revenue. The ratio of operating cash flow to sales income indicates the net cash inflow from operating activities per yuan of main business income, which reflects the cash collection ability of the main business of the enterprise. The formula is:

The ratio of operating cash flow to sales income = net cash flow generated from operating activities ÷ main business income.

Generally speaking, the higher the index value, the faster the recovery of sales funds, the better the management of accounts receivable, and the smaller the risk of bad debt loss. 1998, the average index of A-share companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 3.24%.

2. The ratio of net cash flow from operating activities to operating profit. The ratio of net cash flow from operating activities to operating profit reflects the relationship between net cash flow from operating activities and realized book profit, and its formula is:

The ratio of net cash flow from operating activities to operating profit = net cash flow from operating activities ÷ operating profit.

The greater the index value, the more cash flows into the book profit realized by the enterprise, and the higher the quality of the enterprise's operating profit. Because only real cash profits are "real" profits, not "conceptual" profits.

3. The ratio of net cash flow generated by investment activities to investment income. The ratio of net cash flow from investment activities to investment income reflects the relationship between cash income from investment activities and book investment income. The formula is:

The ratio of net cash flow from investment activities to investment income = net cash flow from investment activities ÷ investment income.

The greater the index value, the higher the investment income actually obtained by the enterprise in cash, which can reflect the content of realized income in investment income.

4. The ratio of net operating cash flow to net profit. The net operating cash flow represents the net cash inflow from operating activities in each yuan of net profit, which reflects the cash receipt and payment level of enterprise net profit. The formula is:

The ratio of net operating cash flow to net profit = net operating cash flow/net profit.

Generally speaking, the higher the index, the higher the realization degree of enterprise scraping, and the greater the amount of monetary funds available for enterprises to control freely, which is helpful to improve the solvency and cash payment ability of enterprises. 1998 The average index of A-share companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 84. 12%.

5. The ratio of net cash flow to net profit. The ratio of net cash flow to net profit reflects the profit of cash recovery in the total net profit of an enterprise. The formula is:

The ratio of net cash flow to net profit = net cash flow/net profit.

6. Cash flow rate of return from asset operation. The rate of return on cash flow from asset operation indicates the net cash inflow per yuan of assets through operating flow, which reflects the level of cash collection from enterprise assets. The formula is:

Return on cash flow from asset operation = net cash flow from operating flow ÷ total assets.

Generally speaking, the higher the index value, the higher the utilization efficiency of enterprise assets, which is also an important index to measure the comprehensive management level of enterprise assets. In the year of 1998, the average index of A-share companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.22%.