On September 20th, the National Inter-bank Funding Center announced the latest loan market quotation rate (LPR), 1 year was 4.20%, which was 5 basis points lower than the previous period, and was 4.85% over five years, which was the same as the previous period.

China securities journal reporter visited a number of bank outlets and found that at present, most sub-branches have not received the specific notice of mortgage interest rate adjustment. After the National Day, "changing the anchor", the mortgage interest rate will not be greatly affected, and it is expected that the mortgage interest rate will be difficult to drop.

Mortgage interest rate is hard to fall.

The announcement of the central bank on August 25th made it clear that the new commercial personal housing loan interest rate 10, which was released on June 8th, was formed by adding the LPR of the corresponding period in the latest month as the pricing benchmark.

On September 20th, a reporter from china securities journal came to a branch of a joint-stock bank in Beijing CBD for detailed consultation. The person in charge of the wealth center of the branch said: "At present, our branch has not received the notice that the interest rate of individual housing loans is linked to LPR, and the mortgage is still implemented according to the benchmark interest rate of loans. The interest rate of the first home loan will rise 10% on the basis of the benchmark interest rate, and the second suite will rise by 20%. " He further said: "There will be some adjustments after the National Day, but there will not be much change in the short term. Judging from the trend of strictly controlling real estate, it is difficult to lower the mortgage interest rate afterwards. "

He told reporters that for customers who have recently applied for housing loans, whether to implement them in accordance with LPR should be based on the date of signing the contract. "The contracts signed before the switching date are still floating according to the benchmark interest rate, and the contracts signed after the switching date are based on the LPR bonus."

"At present, our branch has not received the notice of loan interest rate adjustment, and is still waiting for news from the branch. It is estimated that the time for banks to implement the new interest rate will be different, because it takes some time to prepare. " The account manager of another joint-stock bank also said, "In terms of mortgage, the LPR quotation method will not have much impact on individual buyers."

A related person from a branch of a large state-owned bank in South China also said that the mortgage interest rate has not been affected, and the interest rate of the first suite is around 5.3%. "Apart from seeing the information of LPR's new round of quotation on the news, our outlets have not changed substantially."

According to industry insiders, since the mortgage is basically more than five years, the five-year period in the LPR quotation is the same as last month, so the new quotation has basically no impact on the mortgage. Li Yiju of China Bank Research Institute believes that the LPR will remain unchanged for five years, which reflects the continuity of real estate regulation and control policies, and real estate prices will not rise sharply in the future.

Ke Rui real estate research shows that, in fact, even if the interest rate center is lowered, the purpose is not to directly benefit real estate, and "housing and not speculation" is still the main tone. According to the changes in the local real estate market situation, all localities will determine the lower limit of the interest rate of the first and second sets of commercial personal housing loans within their jurisdiction.

The financing cost of small and micro enterprises decreased slightly.

The new round of LPR quotation has little effect on personal mortgage interest rate. What is the impact on small and micro enterprises? According to industry insiders, the introduction of the new LPR mechanism focuses on supporting the real economy and guiding funds to lean towards small and micro enterprises.

Zou Yan, a partner of PricewaterhouseCoopers, told china securities journal that the new pricing method will help to further dredge the transmission path of monetary policy and support the real economy, and the financing cost of the real economy will be reduced to a certain extent. Judging from the quotation on September 20th, the one-year LPR decreased by 5 basis points compared with last month. Under its transmission effect, the short-term financing cost will have a downward trend.

An industry insider told china securities journal that enterprises will have certain feelings. "However, assuming that small and micro enterprises borrow 6.5438 billion yuan and the annual interest difference is 5,000 yuan, the feeling is not very strong."

Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, said that there is room and necessity to lower policy interest rates (MLF and TMLF) in the fourth quarter. Externally, as the Federal Reserve cut interest rates twice this year, the central banks of major economies in the world cut interest rates one after another and restarted loose monetary policy, which provided space for China's central bank to cut interest rates. Internally, there is downward pressure on the economy, and the growth rate of industrial production, investment and consumption slows down. Therefore, timely and moderate reduction of policy interest rate is conducive to directly and effectively reducing the financing cost of the real economy sector through LPR mechanism, which is very necessary for stabilizing and expanding domestic demand and ensuring the economic operation in a reasonable range in the fourth quarter.

Listed banks may be affected to some extent

On the bank side, Zou Yan said that looking back at the performance of listed banks in the first half of 20 19, we can find that the competition in the deposit market is becoming more and more fierce, and the cost side of banks has certain rigidity. It is expected that in a certain period of time in the future, the loan interest rate will gradually approach LPR, and the deposit cost will rise to a certain extent under fierce competition, which will have a certain impact on the net interest margin and net interest margin of listed commercial banks.

Analysts believe that since the formation of the new LPR mechanism, the regulatory path of monetary policy has gradually become clear. Reducing MLF interest rate is the key to the continuous reduction of real interest rate. It is expected that the MLF interest rate will be lowered with a high probability in the future to guide the LPR downward. The change of LPR interest rate also depends on the change of commercial bank cost. Commercial banks should constantly improve the market-oriented reform of FTP pricing mechanism, enhance the ability of asset-liability management, reduce their own costs, and promote the decline of loan interest rates.