House prices in Beijing declined at the end of 2007. Is the Beijing property market experiencing a cold current?
In China Real Estate Index System Research Institute, the reporter saw their analysis of Beijing's housing price trend in the last four weeks of 2007. House prices in Beijing fell by 10.09% in the first week, by 0.75% in the second week, by 12.88% in the third week and by 20.25% in the fourth week. It can be seen that house prices in Beijing fell by 10.09% in the last four weeks of 2007. So what is the reason for the decline in Beijing's originally strong housing prices?
"We really did macro-control, then tightened the monetary policy, and then introduced a series of related policies, and then the second home loan was restricted. These things may not be as optimistic as before, and may have some influence on everyone's mind. When these effects occur, they will have some impact on price expectations, so that once they are affected, consumption will always be like this. Just like the stock market, when the stock market is optimistic, everyone will be optimistic, and then once pessimistic.
According to the data provided by China Real Estate Index System, at the end of June 2007, the average house price in Beijing was 15 162 yuan per square meter, but at the end of February, the price per square meter dropped to 12 180 yuan, down 65,438 yuan from the previous month. Among them, the average house price of Beijing Dongcheng, Xicheng, Chongwen and Xuanwu 1.59% was 23,467 yuan per square meter at the end of the year, while1.59% dropped to 1840 1 yuan at the end of the year, and Chaoyang, Fengtai and Fengtai. 1 1 at the end of the period, the average house price was 15829 yuan per square meter,1471at the end of the period in 5 yuan, with a decrease of 7.04%. On the contrary, housing prices in Beijing's Tongzhou, Shunyi, Fangshan, Huairou and other suburbs 1 1 rose by a large margin in June 5438+February, which puzzled reporters. In the past month, many developers in Beijing claimed that house prices in Beijing would never fall. At the same time, the housing prices in Beijing urban area showed a double-digit decline. So is the statistics of China real estate index system scientific? Huang Yu, the person in charge of the system, told reporters that their data comes from the full sample statistics of all buildings for sale in Beijing, and its scientific nature is beyond doubt.
"Every property has its turnover, and then every property has its price. Its main components are the total amount belonging to a market, the share of this property in the whole market and its price. Then based on these three factors, we will take a basic element of each composition, all resale properties as our full sample, and then enter our system module for calculation, and then get our index. "
In fact, as early as September and 10 in 2007, the Beijing property market began to encounter a cold current. Developers find it more and more difficult to sell houses. This is Huaye Rose County Jiayuan, located in the important business district of Chaoyang District, Beijing. This property got the pre-sale permit as early as August 24th this year, but as of June 65438+February, there were 638 suites, and only 2 sets were contracted for sale.
"Have you done promotion?"
"There is a discount now. We now have a 15% discount for one-time payment and a 9.6% discount for mortgage. This offer is available at present. "
Although Huaye Rose County Jiayuan has taken various promotional measures such as discounts, it cannot change the embarrassing situation that no one cares. Not far from it, another new building, Dong 'an Mansion, has allowed the sales area of 17008 square meters since its opening in June 5438+00, while the contracted area of 1780 square meters as of June is only 65480 square meters.
"If the house last year (2006) is compared with this year (2007), did it sell well last year (2006)?"
"Yes, that's for sure, including at the beginning of this year (2007), they all sold well, but they all sold badly in recent months."
The rapid transformation of the Beijing property market from hot to depressed has also made the sales staff of the real estate feel a deep chill. Xiao Liu, who has worked in Beijing for more than four years, told reporters that now is the saddest moment in his sales career because it is too difficult to sell a house.
Xiao Liu: "The main reason is that housing prices are too high, and there are housing prices in other cities. Due to the impact of price cuts, many buyers are now holding a wait-and-see attitude and are unwilling to buy a house. "
The house is not easy to sell, and the sales staff suddenly changed from urban white-collar workers to low-income people. Xiao Liu told reporters that the salary structure of sales staff is basic salary plus commission. The basic salary is about 1000 yuan, and the commission is generally one thousandth to three thousandths of the house price. In the past, when the property market was booming, they could get tens of thousands of commissions a month. Now they haven't sold a suite for several months, and they only get 1 000 a month younger.
Xiao Liu: "Now the building can't be sold, and the salary is very low. Now I have to change to another building. "
Reporter: "Have you found a suitable property?"
Xiao Liu: "No, the properties are similar. It's hard to find and sell now. "
Not only are new properties not easy to sell, but second-hand housing transactions in Beijing are also very bleak. This is what the reporter saw not long ago in front of the north store of Beijing 2 1 Century Real Estate. At the end of the year, the temperature in Beijing was below zero, but the staff of this second-hand house had to stand in the cold wind to solicit business.
2 1 century real estate staff: "gather some popularity."
2 1 Century Real Estate Regional Manager Wang: "You can see our side now, there are people at the door, standing outside when it is very cold. This is something reflected by a customer market. "
For these real estate agents standing in the cold wind, the cold weather is not terrible. The terrible thing is that the current cold property market may make them unemployed.
2 1 Century Real Estate China Regional Marketing Director Lin Lei: "Judging from the transaction situation of our actual stores, the decline ratio is quite obvious. The average data we have now in Beijing has dropped by 20% to 30%. "
Through investigation and interviews with reporters, it is found that the sharp decline in transaction volume has become the most typical feature of the second-hand property market in Beijing recently.
Beijing real estate agent: "The transaction volume has dropped."
Beijing real estate agent: "That is, the volume of transactions has dropped sharply."
Reporter: "How bad is the decline? You haven't checked out this month, have you? "
Beijing real estate agent: "Almost."
Beijing real estate agent: "Now the transaction volume has fallen sharply, and the performance in one month is zero."
A questionnaire survey of urban depositors in the fourth quarter of 2007 released by the central bank showed that Beijing residents' willingness to buy houses dropped by 7 percentage points compared with the third quarter, ranking first among the seven major cities in China, and Wang also told reporters that it was precisely because of the obvious increase of buyers holding money to wait and see that it was increasingly difficult to facilitate the transaction during this period.
"We used to do this kind of business and do intermediary business, which was basically done in two days. Not anymore. We recently found it difficult to show the house to customers. Basically, if you take him, he won't come to a conclusion unless he looks at ten sets and eight sets, so he will have a hard time and finally tell you not to buy it after looking at it for half a month. This is normal. Now he is afraid of losing money, always hesitating, afraid that he will regret buying it.
2 1 Century Real Estate staff told reporters that there are more and more signs that the game between buyers and sellers in Beijing's second-hand real estate market has changed significantly recently, and buyers have completely occupied a dominant position. Their attitude directly determines the transaction volume and price trend of Beijing property market.
"Two months ago, you said that he (the housekeeper) came out to look at the house without money, and there were very few people without cards. He is afraid of himself and that he has taken a fancy to a good house. He didn't book it at that time, but someone else booked it for half an hour. This kind of psychology is at least there. He doesn't have to bring money out to look at the house now, and he doesn't have a card to look at the house. He is very practical in his heart. He knows that the balance of time is tilted in his favor and his chips are higher.
So where will the changes in the position of buyers and sellers in the market lead Beijing housing prices?
Wang: "At present, everyone in Beijing feels that the house prices in the market seem to be falling. Everyone expects to fall. Now everyone's mentality has changed. In other words, I will wait and see. Since it can be reduced from 17000 to 15000, it may be much lower. Such an expectation. "
How reasonable is the housing price in Beijing now? 14 Huang Yu, who has been engaged in real estate price research, made an analogy for the reporter. If you buy an ordinary house of 90 square meters in Beijing, you need to spend at least one million yuan, and this money can let you rent a house in a five-star hotel in Beijing for ten years, and you can rent a house in the same position for twenty years. So whether we should buy a house at the current price, every buyer seems to be very cautious.
"It depends on how you calculate this account and how you look at this market. Maybe a few years later, this kind of house includes your own purchasing power, which will increase with your wealth. In a few years, it may not be a problem for you to spend more than one million to buy a house. "