Changan Ford put forward the mentality of "dare to run and dare to be".
As the year is approaching, the anxiety of "car circle" is becoming more and more serious. People dare not relax as they did in previous years, and more consideration is how to face it in 2020. Will the market get better? Everyone's answer is different, but most people are not optimistic. The China auto market, which has been close to the "downturn" for two years, makes anxiety spread in everyone's mind.
The Matthew effect of 20 19 automobile industry pattern is more obvious. During the boom of the automobile market, everyone had food to eat, and at the same time, they may have raised lazy people; During the downturn of the automobile market, the market is divided. Some people eat meat and some people drink soup, while others can only blow the northwest wind, so that the real BMW can run well.
The water drop car APP believes that in the coming year of 2020, we should correct our mentality in the crisis and meet the "once-in-a-lifetime" opportunity.
For China Autobots, there is no choice. Leaving the "comfort zone" is inevitable. Only with strength and peace of mind can they get rid of anxiety. Otherwise, if they wait any longer, I'm afraid it will be a more serious survival of the fittest.
In the coming year, talents, opportunities and markets will change imperceptibly, and the prelude to the great changes in the automobile market will really begin, and 2020 will gradually enter an accelerated period.
We can piece together a new version of the car market from a few pictures.
Figure 1: Himalayan "monsoon" strikes, grows against the wind and is born in the sun.
2.5 million years ago, the earth's temperature experienced a continuous decline, and 1.8 million years ago, the earth's temperature fell to the lowest point of the Quaternary Ice Age.
During this period, the earth plate collided once, causing a huge surface uplift. Known as the "roof of the world", the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau was born, where 14 peaks with an altitude of more than 8,000 meters were produced.
Geographically, the appearance of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has played a barrier role in blocking the south of winter wind and the north of summer monsoon, and at the same time, it has formed a huge pressure with the loess high slope. That's true. The function of "exhaust fan" moistens the rich and dense soil of China and breeds Chinese civilization.
Only through major adjustments will the pattern change fundamentally.
Today's automobile market is experiencing a monsoon attack. The ten-year high-speed growth period came to an abrupt end, and the "stock market" entered a deepening period, just like the arrival of a monsoon. The long-term double-digit growth of the passenger car market is gone forever, and the new energy market has experienced a subsidy "recession" this year, which has caused many car companies to suffer. At this point, you might as well think about how to "stop and go out".
At the beginning of 2065438+2009, Geely chose to actively lower its sales target. The annual target was set at 15 1 10,000 vehicles, and then it was lowered to 1.36 million vehicles again in July, so as not to blindly pursue high growth and let go of the "burden" of 2 million vehicles in 2020. Facing the pressure of capital market and market uncertainty, Geely's "deceleration" took effect on 20 19.
165438+ 10 month, Geely sold about143,000 vehicles, up 1% year-on-year and 10% quarter-on-quarter, ranking first among independent brands. At the same time, the monthly sales figures rank behind FAW-Volkswagen and SAIC- Volkswagen, becoming the top three monthly sales of domestic car companies. 1- 1 1 month, Geely Automobile sold about 1.23 million vehicles, achieving the annual sales target of 9 1%.
Under the trend of 20 19 stabilization, the "stamina" will be retained in 2020, and six new Geely models will be listed next year. Imagine that if Geely stands above the "high point" of 2 million vehicles at this time, it will be "too high to be cold".
In contrast, in the competition from "price war" to "value war", some car companies still cannot iterate quickly. The "black hole" of brand loss brought by the price war continuously sucks up the internal force of the enterprise, and it becomes weaker and weaker in the second half, and finally it is gradually drifting away from "getting back on track".
Under anxiety, car companies that rely solely on price wars will disappear from consumers' horizons.
When the monsoon comes, whoever walks steadily and seizes the opportunity will take the lead. In the view of the drip car APP, 2020 will be the year of "decisive battle".
When many brands were caught off guard by market changes, 20 19 Japanese brands broke out in an all-round way, and FAW Toyota, GAC Toyota, Dongfeng Honda, Guangqi Honda and Dongfeng Nissan were all growing against the trend.
Faced with economic uncertainty, consumers need cars with good quality in their minds. In addition, with the growth of young users after 1995, the choice of "brand with values" is becoming an important factor affecting car purchase. At the moment when the homogenization of products is serious, cars that suit their own style are the first choice.
Take Toyota as an example. In the past ten years, it has been famous for its stability in China. Under the lean strategy, it has "made great efforts", controlled the cycle of productivity improvement and vehicle introduction and production, and insisted on making a good brand.
The market downturn is a hero, and the competition in the auto market is more like long-distance running. When the opponent encounters a "wall-hitting period", you exert yourself to surpass it, which is the embodiment of strength.
Didi Auto APP learned from Toyota insiders that in 2020, Toyota's two joint ventures in China and Lexus will challenge higher goals. At the same time, Toyota President Akio Toyoda has customized more "radical" goals for China. In 2025, the total annual sales of the three companies are planned to reach 3 million vehicles, and the five-year sales doubling plan in China market is being actively implemented.
If this goal is achieved, the pattern of China automobile market will be completely changed. Toyota is like a lion lurking in the grass, waiting for other competitors to make mistakes.
Figure 2: "Layoff" and "changing defense", the global automobile talent migration.
Some people may ask, is the automobile industry only as difficult as China? The answer is no.
According to incomplete statistics, in 20 19, there was a "wave of layoffs" around the world, and many car companies were in the stage of "crazy" layoffs.
This year, General Motors announced the closure of five North American factories and two Canadian factories, and the number of layoffs reached 654.38+0.5 million. Ford immediately announced a layoff plan, closing six factories worldwide, and the number of layoffs will reach 25,000.
In Europe, Daimler Group, Audi and many other well-known car companies also put layoffs on the agenda. Daimler Group will cut staff costs by 65.438+04 billion euros in 2022, and Audi will lay off nearly 65.438+million people. The Asian market has also been hit by the "cold winter". Hyundai Motor and Nissan Motor have announced global layoffs of 654.38+00000 and 654.38+02500 respectively.
Some experts predict that the development of automobile electrification will lead to labor migration, and in the next three to five years, 3 million people in the global automobile market will face the crisis of layoffs.
Car companies close factories and take the initiative to lay off employees, just to "loosen". After GM took the initiative to adjust, the profit rate returned to the "stable" range. Similarly, Volkswagen, Daimler, Ford and other car companies are choosing to tighten up to face the uncertainty and high risk of the auto market after 2020.
But in China, this practice will not be "copied". Car companies will not carry out large-scale layoffs and factory closures. Behind this is the GDP and employment security of local governments.
Faced with objective factors, car companies have to change quickly. Under the condition of the stock market, a large number of idle production capacity and personnel costs are more like a virus on a big tree, absorbing nutrition quickly.
Small car companies are "dragged down" and large companies have to "open their bows". Entering the "second half" of the marathon, whoever has a good rhythm and a more effective method will be able to run.
The tide of automobile reform has come, and there is also vitality behind it. After the "downsizing tide" faded, gold remained on the beach.
In 20 19, Volkswagen Group optimized its personnel structure, laid off employees and announced the establishment of a software team of 5,000 people, only to "prepare dry food" for the development of intelligence and AI technology.
In addition, domestic auto companies such as SAIC and Geely have greatly expanded their software personnel, and non-automotive compound talents are rapidly entering the "automobile circle". Talents in finance, fashion, psychology and biology are valued by automobile companies, and the diversified development of automobiles has also changed the development of talents in the industry.
Kung fu transcends poetry. The drip car APP has always believed that in the future, only car companies that are "not just cars" can really build good cars. Because the traditional form of the automobile is degenerating, and her new form is still being shaped, it is possible to truly adapt to the rapid evolution of the automobile industry by looking at the automobile from a distance, looking at marketing across borders, breaking the boundary, and "jumping out of the three realms, not in the five elements".
German auto industry experts predict that125,000 new job opportunities will be created in the future due to the increasing demand for new scientific and technological talents such as software and artificial intelligence brought by electrification, intelligence and networking. In the China market, the figure will be higher. The automotive industry has an increasing demand for compound talents with professional backgrounds such as big data, artificial intelligence and blockchain.
In 20 19, China automobile entered the international stage, and its talents also entered the world stage. Not long ago, Toyota China told executives? "Changing the defense", Dong will be the senior executive vice president of Toyota China and the executive deputy general manager of the center; Li Hui is the executive vice president and Lang Lixin is the deputy general manager. Chenchen was promoted to deputy general manager.
Li Hui became the executive vice president of Lexus China, becoming the first China manager of Lexus. From this year's "best" car company in Li Hui to a luxury brand with great potential, Chinese mainland professional managers have officially entered the world stage.
In addition, Herry Liu, Song Yang, Mao Jingbo and other cities have become the best candidate cities for multinational automobile companies to promote their business development in China and help their brands to develop sustainably in China. China's local market experience has become a more important assessment index for the global market.
While entering the international market, we have also seen the changes of independent brand executives. Professional managers of joint venture car companies represented by Ada, Micheal Ning and Wen Fei have joined their own brands, and a large number of marketing talents have joined Geely and Great Wall this year. On the whole, the turnover of car companies is concentrated on brands with better sales, and the "Matthew effect" is more obvious.
Figure 3: Great changes have taken place in the automobile "media circle and marketing circle", and the situation of "shuffling" is getting worse.
Finally, talk about the changes in the "car circle". 20 19 is a difficult year for auto companies, agencies and media. I remember there was a list that analyzed the current situation of the domestic industry. The second to last is the automobile industry, and the first to last is the media. You can imagine how hard it is for the car media.
Then the question is, will 2020 be good? I advise you not to have any illusions.
In 20 19, the media entered a "reshuffle period", and many media personnel were completely laid off, which was nearly 50% lower than the peak period. The reduction of personnel leads to the decline of content quality. Coupled with the lack of innovation ability and poor credibility, some media are on the verge of "boasting" or "stepping on", and the media will experience the most severe test in 2020.
Why do you say that? In fact, there has always been an agency in the automobile marketing circle, which is between the automobile enterprises and the media.
The whole agency business is on the verge of collapse. With the shrinking budget of car companies, the profit margin of middlemen is reduced, and they can only make profits through the media. The final situation is to "hook up" with the strong media, squeeze the weak media, and further narrow the living space.
In addition, strong media occupy a lot of cash flow, making it more difficult for the rest of the media to pay back the money, and the ever-extending payment cycle makes the media miserable. The rapidly expanding self-media people have encountered more and more "bad debts" while waiting for payment. After waiting for year after year, the media could not afford the manpower and business expenses, and finally the cash flow was cut off.
According to industry analysts, if 1-2 institutions declare "bankruptcy", a large number of media will "fall down". 2020 is the beginning of the media era in the 1920s. Only with sufficient cash flow and effective cost control can this road "go on".
In 2020, for car companies, media and agency companies, to get rid of anxiety, the strength ranks first. Without strength, there is only death in the face of anxiety. Survival of the fittest. When there is enough external pressure and motivation and great changes take place, people will stimulate their internal motivation and potential.
20 19 is destined to be a difficult year for China auto market, so 2020 may be even more difficult. Under the stock market competition, "you eat more, others eat less".
"the movement against the Tao is a weak way to use it." We believe that the more difficult the market is, the calmer the heart is. Pick it up and go on. The first person to get rid of anxiety disorder should be the car media! Excellent automobile media people should have a sense of mission to grow and share the fate with China automobile industry.
A person's struggle is only a rice bowl, a team and a collective struggle can become a career. Automobile is the biggest personal consumer product created by human industrial civilization. It is facing great difficulties and challenges, but also ushered in a major historical opportunity.
Anxiety is only temporary. Autobots and media people who really share the same pursuit, vision and values should join hands at this moment to form a community of destiny and meet together to create the 1920s.
Text/Yu Ning
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.