Ruan, spokesman of the People's Bank of China and director of the Survey and Statistics Department, introduced at the meeting that since the beginning of this year, the People's Bank of China has stepped up efforts to implement a prudent monetary policy, given full play to the dual functions of monetary policy tools, actively responded, and strived to serve the real economy and stabilize the economic market.
The financial statistics in the first half of this year show that the current liquidity is reasonable and abundant, the financial support to the real economy has increased, the credit structure has been optimized, the comprehensive financing cost of enterprises has steadily decreased, and the quality and efficiency of financial services to the real economy have improved.
Ruan said that in the next step, the People's Bank of China will use a variety of monetary policy tools in a timely and flexible manner, give full play to the dual functions of aggregate and structure, increase support for the real economy, keep the economy running in a reasonable range, and promote high-quality economic development.
Point 1: Macro leverage ratio decreased for five consecutive quarters.
Since the beginning of this year, due to changes in the international situation and the unexpected impact of a new round of epidemic, the downward pressure on the economy has further increased. The data shows that in the first quarter of 2022, China's macro leverage ratio was 277. 1%, 4.6 percentage points higher than the end of last year.
Ruan pointed out that since the fourth quarter of 2020, China has achieved remarkable results in stabilizing leverage to promote growth, and the macro leverage ratio has declined for five consecutive quarters, creating valuable policy space for subsequent response to various complex situations. From the international comparison, the growth rate of China's macro leverage ratio has been significantly lower than that of other major economies since the epidemic, and relatively few new debts have supported the rapid economic recovery.
Ruan also said that since the macro leverage ratio is the ratio of total debt to GDP, the slowdown in economic growth will push up the macro leverage ratio. At the same time, in order to cope with the downward pressure and strive to stabilize the macroeconomic market, China has further deployed a package of measures to stabilize the economy. The impact of these countercyclical control policies on debt growth will be reflected in the current period, but the impact on output is relatively lagging behind, so the macro leverage ratio will rise in stages.
Ruan stressed that with the continuous improvement of the domestic epidemic prevention and control situation, the package of policies and measures to stabilize the economy has been speeded up, and China's economy has shown an obvious rebound momentum. This also creates conditions for maintaining a reasonable level of macro leverage in the future.
Point 2: Policy-based development of financial instruments will soon realize the physical workload.
On June 29th, the National People's Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC) decided to use policy development financial instruments to support major projects. In accordance with the decision-making arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council and the work requirements of the Finance Committee, the People's Bank of China recently supported the China Development Bank and the Agricultural Development Bank to set up financial instruments respectively, with a total scale of 300 billion yuan.
According to Zou Lan, director of the Monetary Policy Department of the People's Bank of China, China Development Bank and Agricultural Development Bank have actively docked with a number of mature projects, and will speed up the delivery according to the law and regulations, and will soon realize two major physical workloads: capital delivery and infrastructure construction.
Zou Lan pointed out that financial instruments can be put in place in a short time to meet the capital demand of the project and make the project start construction as soon as possible. According to the requirement that financial instruments account for no more than 50% of the project capital, it is estimated that financial instruments account for no more than 65,438+00% of the total investment of each project. After all the capital is in place, the policy and development medium and long-term credit funds of 800 billion yuan in the early stage can be followed up in time, and social capital such as commercial bank loans will also be followed up quickly to help form the physical workload of the project and stabilize the macroeconomic market.
He also said that in the next step, the People's Bank of China will speed up the establishment and operation of financial instruments, form a list of alternative projects, and solidly carry out project docking.
Point 3: Continue to improve the expansion willingness of enterprises and residents.
Zou Lan pointed out that in the future, under the overall control of the epidemic, it is expected that the macro economy will maintain a steady recovery, the balance sheets of enterprises and residents are expected to be gradually repaired and improved, and credit support will remain strong.
He said that in the next stage, we will continue to increase the willingness of enterprises and residents to expand. The most important thing is to make production and life turn more smoothly and efficiently, maintain the momentum of economic recovery, and further enhance the endogenous growth momentum and economic vitality.
Specifically:
First, in terms of the total amount, maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity, increase credit support for the real economy, keep the growth rate of money supply and social financing basically match the growth rate of the nominal economy, and complete the balance of profits turned over to the central government ahead of schedule.
Second, in terms of price, give play to the reform efficiency and guiding role of the quoted interest rate in the loan market, give play to the role of the market-oriented adjustment mechanism of deposit interest rate, guide financial institutions to transmit the decline effect of deposit interest rate to the loan side, and further promote financial institutions to reduce the actual loan interest rate.
Third, structurally, we will continue to use structural monetary policy tools and highlight key areas of financial support.
The fourth point: 99% of bank assets are within the safe boundary.
The risk events of Henan rural banks have attracted much attention from all walks of life. Sun Tianqi, director of the Financial Stability Bureau of the People's Bank of China, pointed out that since the incident, the People's Bank of China has actively cooperated with local governments and regulatory authorities to respond steadily, guided branches to fulfill their responsibilities of maintaining regional financial stability, and made good liquidity risk monitoring and emergency protection. "Overall, China's financial risks are convergent and generally controllable, and 99% of banking assets are within the safe boundary." Sun Tianqi said.
He further pointed out that by the end of 20021,the total assets of banking institutions in China were 345 trillion, accounting for 90% of the total assets of the entire financial industry. The rating results of the central bank in the fourth quarter of 2002/kloc-0 show that 1-99% of the 4398 banking institutions participating in the evaluation are within the safety margin. Among them, the number of high-risk institutions accounts for 7% of the banking participating institutions, but the asset size only accounts for 1% of the banking participating institutions. The central bank ratings of most small and medium-sized banks are within the safe boundary.
Sun Tianqi also stressed that financial management departments must be highly vigilant against all kinds of financial risks, further lay a solid foundation for preventing and resolving financial risks, and firmly hold the bottom line that systemic financial risks do not occur.
First, further improve the effectiveness of micro-prudential supervision, continuously strengthen the supervision of financial industry behavior and protect consumers and investors.
The second is to classify policies and continuously resolve the risks of key financial institutions.
Third, we should find all kinds of illegal business activities that people hate as soon as possible, accurately identify them and make up our minds to start.
Fourth, continue to replenish the capital of small and medium-sized banks through various channels such as special local government bonds, continue to reduce the number of high-risk financial institutions, and strive to reduce the number of high-risk financial institutions nationwide to less than 200 by the end of the 14 th Five-Year Plan period.
Point 5: Monetary policy adheres to the principle of "focusing on me" and takes into account internal and external balance.
Speaking of the situation in the second half of the year, Zou Lan pointed out that the economic operation in the second half of the year still faces great uncertainty and instability, and it is still necessary to work hard to stabilize the economy and pay attention to the changes in the inflation situation.
Zou Lan said that in the second half of the year, the People's Bank of China will continue to implement a prudent monetary policy and accelerate the implementation of established policies and measures. Including: the implementation of various structural monetary policy tools launched in the early stage; Guide policy development banks to implement 800 billion yuan of new credit and set up 300 billion yuan of financial instruments to support infrastructure construction; Complete the annual balance of profits turned over to the central government ahead of schedule.
Regarding the issues of reducing RRR and interest rates that the industry is concerned about, Zou Lan said that in the future, the People's Bank of China will comprehensively consider the fundamental conditions such as economic growth and price situation, rationally match monetary policy tools, maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity, further promote financial institutions to reduce corporate financing costs, and create a suitable monetary and financial environment for consolidating the economic recovery.
Zou Lan also said that the People's Bank of China is highly concerned about the accelerated tightening of monetary policies in major economies. In the early stage, measures such as adjusting the reserve ratio of foreign exchange deposits and strengthening macro-prudential management of cross-border capital flows have been taken to make forward-looking responses, which have reduced the negative spillover effects brought about by changes in the external environment to some extent. The RMB exchange rate fluctuates in both directions at a reasonable level, and cross-border capital flows are generally stable.
"As a super-large economy, China's domestic monetary and financial situation is mainly determined by domestic factors, and monetary policy will continue to adhere to the orientation of giving priority to ourselves and taking into account internal and external balance." Zou Wei said.
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