However, the total assets of these 136 listed real estate enterprises totaled 7. 1 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 27%, which was 3 percentage points different from the debt growth level. It is worth mentioning that, according to Wind's statistics, as of June 30, 20 17, the overall debt ratio of these 136 listed real estate enterprises was 78.9%, compared with 76.8% last year, up 2. 1 percentage point year-on-year.
In addition, the "Securities Daily" reporter noted that the asset-liability ratio of 39 listed real estate enterprises exceeded the red line of 80%, accounting for nearly 29%.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, told the Securities Daily reporter that in view of the strong desire of enterprises for scale development and the loose conditions and low cost of issuing bonds since 20 15, listed real estate enterprises have continuously issued large-scale corporate bond reserves in the past two years, which has pushed up the debt ratio of enterprises.
Over 20% of housing enterprises have debts exceeding 30 billion yuan.
According to Wind statistics, among the above-mentioned 136 A-share listed real estate enterprises, there are 64 real estate enterprises with debts exceeding10 billion yuan, accounting for 47%; There are 34 housing enterprises with debts exceeding 30 billion yuan, accounting for 25%. Among them, the debts of Vanke, Huaxia Happiness, China Merchants Shekou, Capital Co., Ltd., Jindi, Jinke Co., Ltd. and other 15 housing enterprises all exceeded10 billion yuan.
From the perspective of asset-liability ratio, the capital situation of different enterprises is uneven. According to the statistical data, the Securities Daily reporter estimated that by the end of June 20 17, 29% of housing enterprises had an asset-liability ratio greater than 80%, 20% between 70% and 80%, and 12.5% between 60% and 70%. The enterprise with the highest asset-liability ratio is *ST Zi Xue, up to 96%.
It is worth noting that the debt ratio of some benchmark housing enterprises has increased slightly. According to the statistics of the Securities Daily reporter, as of the end of June 2065438+2007, the asset-liability ratio of Greenland Holdings was 89%, up less than 1 percentage point year-on-year. Even excluding the advance payment, the asset-liability ratio was as high as 85%.
As we all know, there are many indicators to measure whether the risk of a company's debt side is under control, but short-term solvency is particularly important. According to the data provided by Wind, the reporter of Securities Daily learned that as of the end of June 20 17, the short-term loans of real estate enterprises with available data totaled 273.6 billion yuan, an increase of 58.9 billion yuan compared with 214.7 billion yuan in the same period last year. This means that the short-term debt repayment pressure of real estate enterprises has increased, but listed real estate enterprises have abundant cash and worry-free short-term debt repayment ability.
He Minyi, a real estate analyst at Dongguan Securities, took 142 listed real estate enterprises as reference data. The total liabilities of the industry accounted for 4.57 times of the shareholders' equity attributable to the parent company, while at the end of 2065, 438+06 was 4. 13 times, of which interest-bearing liabilities accounted for 2.09 times of the shareholders' equity attributable to the parent company, which was also higher than that at the end of 2065.
He Minyi believes that on the whole, since 20 16, the financing channels of the real estate industry have expanded, the prosperity of the superimposed industry has improved, the financing of developers has increased, and the leverage ratio has increased, resulting in a continuous increase in the overall debt ratio of the industry.
"scale theory" promotes the development of high leverage
"Securities Daily" reporter noted that on the occasion of the release of interim results, some housing enterprises raised their annual sales targets, including Sunac China, Longhu Real Estate, Xuhui Holdings and other housing enterprises, and some housing enterprises even adjusted by more than 40%.
Song Yanqing, president of RAND Consulting, said that housing enterprises are in a state of slamming on the accelerator. The larger the housing enterprises are, the higher the brand awareness is, and they have obvious advantages in land acquisition, loans, finding people and procurement. Taking financing cost as an example, the average interest rate (capital cost) of interest-bearing liabilities of housing enterprises with sales scale of 3 billion yuan.
9%- 12%; 30 billion yuan of housing enterprises, this indicator is 6%-9%; For housing enterprises that exceed 654.38+00 billion yuan or 300 billion yuan, the index is below 6%.
In addition, the larger the enterprise, the more balanced the cash flow, which is also conducive to hedging the market cycle and the risk of failure of some projects. Therefore, housing enterprises are obsessed with the pursuit of scale development, and the rapid expansion of scale mainly depends on high leverage operation.
In fact, statistics show that as of June 20 16, 10, the stock of real estate bonds is about1769.8 billion yuan, and the term distribution is concentrated in 20 18 to 20 19. Specifically, 20 18 will have a stock of 492.7 billion yuan. Most loans such as real estate development loans are three years, and most of the loans generated in this real estate cycle will expire around 20 19.
Another analyst said that the tightening of financing channels and the upcoming debt repayment peak are not conducive to the future growth of real estate investment. 2065 438+08-2020, the peak period of credit debt repayment of real estate enterprises comes, and the repayment pressure of funds will lead real estate enterprises to slow down real estate investment actively. If the sales rebate cannot be improved in time, the enterprise will face greater financial pressure and even need to sell the project to survive.
By then, leading real estate enterprises will usher in larger-scale mergers and acquisitions, buy more land reserves at low cost, further become bigger and stronger, and the industry concentration will be further enhanced.