In March 2020, Gao Weidong was transferred from the director of Guizhou Provincial Communications Department to the director of Maotai, and in August 20021year, he was transferred to the director of Guizhou Provincial Bureau of Coalfield Geology. A discerning person knows at a glance: if you don't mix well, you will go downhill. During his tenure, Maotai reached a record high of 2608 yuan on February 8, 20265438, and a record low on August 20, the eve of his departure 1525 yuan.
For a company like Maotai, it doesn't really matter who it is. As long as they don't mess around, enterprises will go down according to their own inertia. So look at the resume of Gao Weidong's successor, Ding Xiongjun: he is neither a liquor major nor an enterprise management experience. After the "Feng Jun's Lessons" taught by an amateur management expert, Ding Xiongjun got on the horse. But in contrast, Gao Weidong's "dismount" is similar to "Feng Jun's dismount".
At 2 1:57 that night, Kweichow Moutai suddenly released the announcement of production and operation in 2020 (the two announcements of 20 18 and 20 19 have the same contents, both of which were released on February 2nd of the following year): after preliminary accounting, the company will produce 50,000 tons of Moutai base liquor and 25,000 tons of series base liquor in 2020; It is estimated that the total operating income will be about 97.7 billion yuan, up about 65,438+00% year-on-year, of which the wholly-owned subsidiary Kweichow Moutai Liquor Marketing Co., Ltd. is expected to realize the total operating income of about 9.4 billion yuan (including tax sales of about 6,543.8+006 billion yuan); It is estimated that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies will be about 45.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 65,438+00%.
This is obviously an emergency patch. Shareholders don't buy it, thinking that "this is Kweichow Moutai diverting public attention, thus reducing the pressure of public opinion for Gao Weidong."
A similar storm happened in Gree. The difference seems to lie in the result: Gao Weidong of Maotai can move, but Dong Mingzhu of Gree can't.
Looking back on Dong Mingzhu's speech at the shareholders' meeting and comparing Gree's performance two years later, we can find that her speech is blind and confident.
Let's look at one of the sentences, "I believe that the status of air conditioner boss will not change in the next decade." Recently, Midea Group and Gree Electric both claimed that the air-conditioning market share was the first in the interim report of 20021. Midea's data based on Aowei Cloud shows that in the first half of 200212002, the online and offline market share of Midea's household air-conditioning product line reached 37.6% and 36.5% respectively. Gree cited the data released by HVAC information, showing that Gree central air-conditioning ranked first with a market share of 16.2%, and according to industry online statistics, domestic sales of Gree household air-conditioners accounted for 33.89% and 5438+0 in the first half of 2026, ranking first in the home appliance industry.
Which one is true? According to the sales data, Gree Air Conditioning's revenue in the first half of 20021was 6765438+94 million yuan; Midea's HVAC business revenue was 76.408 billion yuan, leading Gree by nearly 654.38+0 billion yuan; If the unit price is lower than Gree, the quantity must be higher than Gree. In this way, the rhetoric of "I believe that the status of the air conditioner boss will not change in the next decade" went bankrupt.
Look at another sentence: "It is safe for Gree Electric to maintain an annual growth rate of 10%". In the first half of 20021,Gree Electric achieved a total operating income of 920 1 1 billion yuan, up 30.32% year-on-year; The net profit was 9.457 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.64%. The main reason for this sharp increase is the low base under the influence of the epidemic in the first half of 2020. If traced back to the same period of 20 19, which was not affected by the epidemic, Gree achieved a revenue of 98.34438 billion yuan, that is, Gree's revenue decreased by about 6.4% in the first half of 20 19. Furthermore, the revenue of Gree 20 19 in the first half of the year was the peak in the past five years, and the current situation is basically the same as that of 20 18. In fact, the gross profit margin of "white electricity and double electricity" air-conditioning business is declining, and it is caught in the dispute of "involution", while the rhetoric that "Gree Electric is sure to maintain the annual growth rate of 10%" is basically bankrupt.
It is under this pressure of growth that Dong Mingzhu is eager to diversify, making chips, making mobile phones, making cars and taking Yinlong as a new energy source. However, the keenness of the stock price has already reflected the passivation and dilemma of Gree.
65438+Since February 2020, the share price of Gree Electric has been falling continuously. At present, the market value of the company has evaporated from the highest point140 billion yuan. Three share repurchases, throwing 24 billion yuan to copy their own bottom, failed to pull up the stock price. When Gao Lin received the transfer price, it was 46. 17 yuan. Even considering dividends, Zhang Lei is still losing money.
The data shows that the first phase of the company's repurchase began in April 2020 and ended in February 20021year. It took 10 months to buy back 6 billion yuan, and the highest transaction price was about 60 yuan/share, and the lowest transaction price was about 53 yuan/share. The second repurchase started on February 24th, 20021year and ended on May 28th, 20021year. It took three months to buy back 6 billion yuan. The highest transaction price was about 62 yuan, and the lowest transaction price was about 56 yuan. The third repurchase (with an upper limit of 65.438+0.5 billion yuan) started on May 365.438+0 is faster, and it has spent 65.438+0.2469 billion yuan so far.
Extended reading:
Zhang Lei doesn't need to bind Dong Mingzhu.
With the shrinking middle class, will Maotai smell better?