At the industry level, real estate, consumer services, non-bank finance and other sectors were among the top gainers, accounting for 7.55%, 5.65% and 4.85% respectively. Power and public utilities, national defense and military industry, power equipment and new energy sectors rose and fell late, with -0.40%, 0.02% and 0.35% respectively.
It is worth noting that the real estate sector continued its strong upward trend due to the frequent favorable policies and the official landing of the "third arrow". At the close, Shenwan's first-class industry real estate index rose by 7.96%, ranking 1, and the index rose as high as 14.4 1% in the last five days.
So, can this surge continue in the future? Has the market reached a turning point? What should investors do as the year is approaching? China Fund News reporter interviewed Huaxia, Bosera, Harvest, CEIBS, Huaan, Guotai, Yingyong, Xilide, Hua Fu, Wanjia, Xingye, Debon, Pengyang, Nord, Xincheng and other 15 fund companies.
Many fund companies believe that the sharp rise of the market is mainly driven by many factors, and the medium and long-term allocation value of the equity market is gradually emerging. In the future, we can pay attention to the repair of market-based valuation represented by real estate, finance and consumption.
Multiple factors boost today's rally
For today's surge, China Europe International Business School said that the CSRC announced five measures to adjust and optimize the equity financing of housing-related enterprises on the evening of the 28th, which will be implemented from now on. This move aims to improve the balance sheet of high-quality housing enterprises, increase the supplement of rights and interests, and promote the real estate market to revitalize the stock, prevent risks and transform development. Seven years later, the refinancing of housing enterprises resumed, and the signal was significant. The measures announced by the central bank last Friday show that it attaches great importance to economic development. In the market's expectation of favorable policies, some concept sectors represented by consumption and finance have also performed relatively strongly recently, which also reflects investors' expectations for future economic improvement.
Bosera Fund said that the collective upward trend of A-shares today may be due to the following reasons: First, last night, the CSRC announced five measures to adjust and optimize the equity financing of housing-related enterprises to support the stable and healthy development of the real estate market and boost market sentiment; Secondly, since the beginning of this year, A-shares have fluctuated downwards. At present, the overall valuation is at a relatively low level, and the cost performance is relatively high, which is attractive.
Huaan Fund said that the sharp rise in the market was mainly driven by two factors, and the long-term allocation value of the equity market gradually emerged. First, support the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, and the related industries and economic expectations have stabilized. Last night, the CSRC decided to adjust and optimize five measures of equity financing. The steady and healthy development of the real estate industry is conducive to the stable cash flow of related industries in the real estate industry chain, and the economic stabilization is expected to rebound. Second, build a modern capital market with China characteristics and explore the establishment of a valuation system with China characteristics. At present, the market value of state-owned listed companies and listed state-owned financial enterprises accounts for nearly half, but the valuation of some state-owned enterprises is at a historically low level. Recently, President Yi Huiman put forward at the annual meeting of the 2022 Financial Street Forum that "exploring the establishment of a valuation system with China characteristics" will help promote the market to rationalize the valuation logic of different types of listed companies and promote the market resource allocation function to play a better role.
Huaxia Fund said that the risk of suppressing the market this year has been experiencing positive turning points and changes in the near future: First, the bottom of the real estate market will stabilize with a high probability next year, and the introduction of Article 16 of Finance shows that the policy further supports the risk resolution of the real estate market, and the focus has shifted from "protecting the property" to "protecting the main body". Considering that the time and scope of this round of real estate downturn are more than before, the marginal relaxation of policy will obviously help stabilize the bottom of the real estate market; Secondly, the epidemic prevention and control has been further optimized and improved, and it is expected that after full brewing and continuous exploration, it will have little impact on life and production.
Yingyong Fund said that it is of great significance to reopen the equity financing of real estate enterprises after a lapse of six years, which indicates that the financing environment of real estate enterprises has been further improved, and it is expected to improve the balance sheet and ease the liquidity pressure through equity financing, which also provides the possibility for integration within the industry. In addition, according to CCTV reports, in recent years, all localities have adhered to the ninth edition of the prevention and control plan and 20 measures, unswervingly, based on early and fast, scientifically and accurately carried out epidemic disposal work, and promoted the implementation of optimization measures. Driven by the above factors, the risk appetite of AH shares rebounded sharply today, the stock index rose collectively, and many sectors such as real estate chain, big finance, consumer services, food and beverage all rose sharply.
Wanjia Fund said that in terms of industry, the real estate sector rose by nearly 8%. In the news, last night, the CSRC restarted the merger and reorganization of housing enterprises and supporting financing after six years, and restarted the refinancing of housing enterprises. As the "third arrow", this equity financing was introduced less than three weeks after the "second arrow" debt financing, which shows the full determination and strong execution of the current real estate relaxation policy. Driven by favorable policies, the pan-real estate chain plate represented by real estate, non-bank finance and banks rose sharply today.
Cathay pacific fund said that in just 20 days, the "three arrows at once" on the policy side had a strong signal significance, which greatly boosted the confidence of all parties. The policy provides financial support for housing enterprises from multiple angles and channels. On the one hand, it supports the reasonable extension of existing loans and bonds and effectively avoids the spread of debt risks of housing enterprises. On the one hand, the newly raised funds of real estate enterprises are used to "guarantee the delivery of houses and protect people's livelihood", and the risk exposure of national housing construction projects under construction by central enterprises is expected to decline, which is expected to drive the balance sheet to continue to improve. On the other hand, the construction business is facing a virtuous circle. Re-loans can be used for affordable housing, shantytown renovation, old city renovation, demolition and resettlement housing construction, supplementary liquidity and debt repayment, which is conducive to the construction of state-owned central enterprises to better serve the development of China's real economy and better serve and stabilize the macroeconomic market.
It is expected that the follow-up repair work will continue.
The long-term positive trend of A shares remains unchanged.
For the market outlook, CEIBS said that with the intensive stimulus of policies, the downside risks of the economy are gradually easing, and the recent real estate support measures are expected to reduce the default risks of housing enterprises, construction enterprises, related upstream and downstream enterprises and loan buyers, because the real estate chain still occupies a large proportion in the national economy, and corporate recovery has a strong driving role; It is expected that the market will remain volatile in the short term. Considering the generally high volatility at the end of market adjustment, we can pay close attention to the economic inflection point and the market elasticity after the inflection point is verified.
Bosera Fund said that the recent favorable policies for real estate have been continuously released, and the "three arrows" have landed one after another, and the follow-up performance remains to be seen. In the case of sporadic outbreaks in China, the overall willingness of residents to consume is not high, and the repair of consumption is still restrained; In June, inflation in the United States fell by 5438+ 10, and the pace of interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve is expected to slow down, and the suppression of A shares by tightening overseas liquidity may be eased. The follow-up trend of A shares will be more influenced by domestic factors. In the case of weak overall economic recovery, friendly monetary policy and liquidity, the long-term positive trend of A shares remains unchanged, but it is inevitable that there will be twists and turns along the way. In the context of high-quality development as an important goal, the sectors that benefit from economic transformation and upgrading still have good investment value, such as high-end manufacturing, new energy, science and technology, etc., which can be properly concerned.
Huaxia Fund said that despite a slight rebound, the overall market is still at a low valuation. In the past 65,438+00 years, only 65,438+00% of the time was lower than the current market valuation. With the warming of internal and external conditions, the medium and long-term repair space is still obvious. In particular, there may be more fundamental improvements in the future: optimization of epidemic prevention and control measures, improvement of real estate sales data, recovery of economic data and marginal mitigation of overseas risks. Based on factors such as bottoming out of economic growth and high-quality development next year, we are relatively optimistic about the market next year, believing that there are opportunities for growth and value, and most industries are more about the difference in order and magnitude of growth. Continue to suggest positive layout and wait for changes.
Yingyong Fund said that the pricing logic inside and outside the stock market, including overseas liquidity and real estate financing, has shown positive signals recently, the epidemic prevention and control measures have been further optimized, and the AH market sentiment has obviously picked up. Considering the sustainability of the above factors, it is expected that the restoration market will continue. Objectively speaking, the current terminal sales situation of real estate and the overall enthusiasm of equity financing are still far from the previous peak of real estate equity 15- 16. However, I believe that the improvement of the financing environment will gradually produce results. Considering the significance of the signal of restarting equity financing, the market is expected to go ahead. From a broader perspective, the restoration of the real estate financing environment will help boost the market's expectations of the overall domestic fundamentals and is expected to benefit the overall equity assets. The current valuation of superimposed A shares and Hong Kong stocks is at a historical low, and the subsequent repair market is expected to continue. In addition to the real estate sector that directly benefits, there may be investment opportunities for high-quality assets in many fields such as medicine, consumption and electronics.
The Industrial Fund said that under the continuous policy changes, we judged that the bottom of the A-share market has been gradually consolidated, and suggested that investors can look at the future market performance more positively. The current policy and the important pre-restraining factors such as the US Federal Reserve's interest rate hike have all turned to inflection points. After the subsequent measures to stabilize the economy are gradually introduced, the domestic economic momentum is expected to recover further, and the market may usher in a structural upward trend.
Hua Fu Fund said that the medium term is still optimistic about the prospects. This year can be said to be a year of great macroeconomic turmoil. Next year, the core influencing factors of this year: real estate drag, epidemic situation, Russia-Ukraine conflict and global austerity, will have obvious marginal improvement next year. Although the domestic real estate and epidemic prevention problems have their own complexity and difficulty in handling, there may be time lag and repetition in transmission, but the marginal changes in policies have defined the future direction. Last weekend's RRR cut came as scheduled after the announcement of the National People's Congress. Relieved the recent worries of the central bank tightening liquidity under the negative feedback of redemption caused by the marginal tightening of funds and the sharp drop in the bond market. The signal is clear. Considering the location of the market, we believe that equity assets have a strong cost performance ratio. In the short term, the real estate chain and post-epidemic recovery may still be the core concerns of the market. In the medium and long term, the market is expected to return to the main line of growth after the economy bottoms out, focusing on safe development, industrial upgrading and state-owned enterprise reform.
Wanjia Fund said that since the middle of 165438+ 10, domestic epidemics have been repeatedly superimposed, and the weakening of external demand has suppressed market sentiment to some extent, and it has rebounded with twists and turns. However, in the short term, with the continuous optimization of epidemic prevention and the relaxation of real estate financing, the emotional repair of the two main lines of pan-real estate chain and post-epidemic recovery is expected to continue, driving the overall repair of the market. In the medium term, under the background of steady growth, domestic demand is expected to gradually pick up, the impact of overseas negative factors is expected to slow down, the global inflation level is expected to fall, the domestic economic fundamentals are expected to be further repaired, and A shares are expected to regain their upward trend under the resonance repair of valuation and profitability.
Cathay pacific fund said that the current fiscal and monetary policies are actively exerted, the policy puzzle is gradually completed, and the support is expected to continue. Last week, the "China Characteristic Valuation System" triggered market thinking, superimposed real estate risk management, steady growth and overweight resonance, and stimulated the market to generate rapid industry rotation. In the medium term, the bottom of the market is approaching, and the promotion of the market center in the future will be more certain. However, for investment, too fast short-term expectation correction may lead to increased market volatility. Investors can continue to pay attention to the building materials and financial sectors in the real estate industry chain that the policy is expected to repair, but they should also be alert to the market adjustment risks brought by the policy exceeding expectations and the epidemic.
Focus on large-scale valuation repair represented by real estate, finance and consumption.
For the promising sectors, Huaan Fund believes that the long-term allocation value of the equity market is gradually emerging, and it can focus on the directions of steady growth, post-epidemic, and great security. On the whole, despite all kinds of internal and external challenges, China's medium-and long-term economic development potential and space are still large, real estate support policies and epidemic prevention optimization are expected to further promote the expected stabilization and recovery, and the global liquidity environment is expected to improve. At present, the level of equity risk premium is about a standard deviation from the historical average, and the long-term allocation value of the market is gradually emerging.
Specifically, steady growth, consumption, travel and other industries continue to lose money, industry fundamentals are at a historical low, and the industry pattern is gradually improving. In addition, medicine, medical care and computer software are expected to benefit from the improvement of China's independent controllable level, while power grid investment, scenery storage and other tracks need to select Alpha Company and pay attention to profit certainty. I hope investors can adhere to the concept of long-term investment and value investment, and have confidence and patience.
China and Europe said that it is difficult to judge the timing of policy adjustment. In this process, in addition to traditional safe-haven varieties such as high dividends and low valuations, we can also pay attention to industries such as electricity whose performance is expected to continue to improve. In addition, in the process of short-term rebound, the industries with the fastest liquidity replenishment have higher short-term trading flexibility and defensive stock prices, especially those with high institutional allocation such as power equipment, medicine, electronics, food and beverage. In the medium and long term, under the expectation of economic stabilization next year, the optional consumption areas that are more sensitive to economic performance are also expected to have marginal improvement in performance growth.
Xin Li, manager of Harvest Financial Select Fund, said that the opportunities in the real estate sector can be divided into three stages: at present, private enterprises' real estate has changed from dead to alive, and the valuation of private enterprises' real estate that was previously killed to 0.2~0.5 times PB is expected to increase to 0.8~ 1 times PB. Since this year is a double blow to the valuation performance, once the sales resume, the plate will have a double-click opportunity. We are optimistic that there is still 40-50% room at this stage. Because a large number of private enterprises have defaulted in the past two years, they are likely to disappear from the sales list in the future, so their market share will be occupied by the remaining state-owned central enterprises and this wave of surviving private enterprises. Such enterprises have the opportunity to increase their market share, and their performance valuation can also be Shuang Sheng.
Huaxia fund said that in terms of sectors, it is recommended to reverse the layout of high prosperity and dilemma. From now on, the expectation of steady growth and recovery is expected to bring a wave of large-scale valuation repair represented by real estate, finance and consumption, and the consumption of real estate leaders and real estate chains is more flexible; But in the coming year, more often, the market will pay more attention to high-growth industries represented by energy and independent safety.
Zhu Mingrui, a Nobel Fund, said that there is limited room for decline in the pharmaceutical sector at present, and the disturbance of negative factors in all aspects is basically fed back in valuation. As an industry with a long slope and thick snow, in the medium and long term, it may be a more appropriate time to configure the pharmaceutical sector at present. In terms of opportunities, I personally think there are the following opportunities: first, the marginal relaxation of medical insurance-related policies; Second, the head company realized going out to sea and quickly increased its volume; Third, the epidemic situation has been further controlled.
The western profit fund said that looking forward to the market outlook, the policy of stabilizing the macroeconomic market will be gradually fulfilled, and the market's expectations for economic growth will be strengthened. The policy includes two directions: one is to continue to introduce policies to support the gradual recovery of real estate financing function, and the other is to continue to implement joint prevention and control measures for epidemic prevention and control. Relevant policy optimization is helpful to stabilize the macroeconomic market and strengthen the market's expectation of economic growth.
Economic growth is expected to gradually recover, and the previous valuation adjustment is more adequate. At present, the risk-return ratio of the market is higher than the whole. It is suggested to pay attention to financial real estate and real estate chain, infrastructure and some cyclical sectors with low inventory under the main line of steady growth investment; In the growth sector, select the excellent targets in the fields of new energy, big technology and big consumption.
Citic Prudential Fund said that looking forward to the future, we can look for investment opportunities from the medium and long-term trends: 1) Structurally, it is to coordinate development and security, realize the optimization and upgrading of Chinese modern industrial structure, look for opportunities in the direction of power equipment, national defense, electronics, computers and related special equipment and materials, and combine financial support; 2) On the whole, it is the resonance of global liquidity improvement and economic recovery expectation, focusing on machinery and equipment, power equipment, non-ferrous metals, electronics and other directions, and looking for opportunities in combination with current pricing and implied upside.
Debon Fund believes that in the future, the tightening of overseas funds is expected to ease, domestic liquidity will continue to be loose, and the real estate supply side has ushered in strong policy support. The extreme risks of real estate that the market was worried about in the early stage quickly converged, and the risks of capital in the upstream and downstream chains of real estate eased. We are optimistic about the sectors that have benefited from the repair of the real estate chain, especially those that have rebounded in the completed end and have been greatly discounted in the previous valuation, such as building materials, household appliances, light industry and other industries. Secondly, real estate is a sector with more discounts in the early valuation of assets such as banks and insurance. In the medium term, we are also optimistic about the pharmaceutical and consumer sectors. In the future, with the gradual easing of epidemic disturbance factors, consumption is expected to be further relaxed. At the same time, the domestic pharmaceutical sector has frequent favorable policies, and the fund allocation ratio is at a low level, which also has good strategic opportunities.
Pengyang Fund said that the long-term real estate mechanism in China supports the rigid and improved housing demand due to the city's policies on the one hand, and keeps the real estate financing reasonable and moderate on the other. In the long run, after the real estate stabilizes, the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry is still the priority direction of financial resources allocation, which also means that the opportunities in the stock market will be diversified next year. Under the current policy environment, the incremental demand of the real estate industry will be more biased towards the construction completion links in the middle and lower reaches, that is, building materials, decoration, household appliances and other fields, while the promotion of land acquisition and new construction in the upper reaches is expected to be limited.