At the same time, this has also become an important measure for the Shanghai headquarters of the central bank to cooperate with the Shanghai Municipal Party Committee and the Municipal Government to strengthen the regulation and control of real estate finance, give full play to the role of the self-discipline mechanism of market interest rate pricing, support the structural reform of Shanghai's supply side, and promote the transformation and development of economic structure.
The core of macro-prudential management of Shanghai real estate finance is to establish a macro-prudential monitoring index system of Shanghai real estate finance from four aspects: population, real estate market, real estate finance, economy and finance. On the basis of comprehensive evaluation and judgment of the development trend of Shanghai real estate market, a countercyclical macro-prudential supervision mechanism of real estate finance is constructed to promote the stable operation of real estate finance business and the stable and healthy development of Shanghai real estate market.
"In this round of macro-prudential real estate policy, the Shanghai Central Bank has integrated some existing indicators into a system, and the pilot has a high probability of success and may be rolled out nationwide. This policy is to add a ruler, not a pair of scissors. Moreover, the ruler is more accurate and advanced than in the past, realizing the expected management. In view of the macro-prudential management of Shanghai real estate finance, Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, told China Business News that in the past, the regulation of real estate was mostly through various restrictive means. This round of prudent real estate management combined with the previous real estate regulation and control, the most important significance is to try out strategies in different cities, and there are measures to "support the bottom and block up" for different cities. At present, the first step in Shanghai is to achieve the expected management and regulation of real estate through fine-tuning individual cities in terms of credit, but real estate is an important aspect that affects economic stability at present, and it remains to be seen whether this can be done now.
Hongxincheng's "small test"
In fact, the macro-prudential framework of Shanghai real estate is a "small test" of the MPA framework of the central bank. In order to further improve the macro-prudential policy framework and better play the role of countercyclical adjustment, the central bank established the macro-prudential evaluation system (MPA) for financial institutions in June 20 16.
The macro-prudential management of real estate finance introduced by the Shanghai headquarters of the central bank is not only conducive to the stable and healthy operation of Shanghai real estate market and real estate finance, but also plays a leading role in the further promotion of MPA nationwide.
The real estate industry is an important part of the national economy, which not only accounts for a large proportion in the gross domestic product (GDP), but also is the main collateral for capital lending activities. It is an industry with a long industrial chain and wide influence. From fixed assets investment to financing activities, from business costs to financial leverage, from household consumption to commodity trade, the real estate industry covers and affects almost all aspects of the national economy. Maintaining the stable and orderly operation of the real estate market is the premise of promoting the healthy development of the national economy and preventing systemic risks.
Zhang Xin, deputy director of the Shanghai headquarters of the central bank and president of the Shanghai branch, said that since the financial crisis, major economies have gradually established financial macro-prudential management frameworks and attached great importance to the regulation of the real estate market. Both the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) are encouraging member countries to implement macro-prudential management of real estate finance according to their national conditions.
Under the background that China's economy has entered a new normal, the central bank actively promotes the practice of macro-prudential management in China, so as to implement monetary policy more effectively and guard against systemic financial risks. In particular, in view of the obvious regional differentiation of real estate, all localities are encouraged to establish a macro-prudential management framework for real estate finance in combination with real estate trends, real estate loans and asset quality of financial institutions.
It is worth noting that since Shanghai implemented the "Shanghai Nine Articles" real estate control policy in March this year, the effect has been remarkable, and Shanghai's real estate has stabilized.
On June 2, Wen Shanen, director of the comprehensive management department of the Shanghai headquarters of the central bank, told the media such as China Business News at the press conference of "20 16 Lujiazui Forum" held by the Shanghai Information Office that since the promotion of "Shanghai Nine Articles", the real estate transaction volume in Shanghai has now returned to normal, and it has stabilized since April, with an average of 900 online signing transactions per day, which is equivalent to the average level of the past five years.
At the same time, the growth rate of Shanghai real estate development investment, the year-on-year growth rate of newly started commercial housing area, the house price index and the amount of personal housing loans all fell year-on-year.
Regarding the cooperation between commercial banks and real estate agents such as Jia Lian, Zhou Wenjie, deputy director of Shanghai Banking Regulatory Bureau, said that after visiting and verifying, commercial banks have resumed cooperation with enterprises such as Jia Lian, effectively curbing the illegal advance payment behavior in real estate transactions, standardizing the real estate intermediary behavior and purifying the market environment. Zhou Wenjie said that in the future, he will continue to urge commercial banks to implement the spirit of relevant policies and establish a long-term mechanism.
From the perspective of prudent management of the current market, Zhang Dawei thinks it is necessary to introduce policies. "Shanghai also introduced some regulatory policies in March, with a decline in market transactions and a slight adjustment in prices, but there have been some irrational signs in the real estate market in Shanghai and even Shenzhen recently. Even in the case of shrinking credit lines in April, real estate is still overexploited, so this kind of targeted credit constraint is necessary. "
Judging from the market trend, Zhang Dawei believes that this policy has made it clear for the first time that credit has always been an important lever for real estate development. The role of real estate in promoting the economy has been relatively small. In this case, we should be cautious about the orientation of real estate, and there is also a market foundation. From the credit point of view, the rapid rise or high operation of house prices is not conducive to economic development and talent introduction.
Macro-prudential "Trinity"
The Shanghai headquarters of the central bank took the lead in exploring the implementation of macro-prudential management of real estate finance, on the one hand, it made a useful attempt to promote the systematization and institutionalization of financial regulation in Shanghai real estate market; On the other hand, it also explores and accumulates experience for macro-prudential management of real estate market in other cities in China.
The macro-prudential management framework of Shanghai real estate finance does not completely copy foreign experience, but starts from the national conditions of China and the characteristics of Shanghai's economy and finance. The main regulatory policy tools used are: minimum down payment ratio requirements; Mortgage interest rate requirements; The borrower's solvency requirements; The evaluation results are linked with MPA incentive and constraint tools and window guidance.
Specifically, the macro-prudential management framework of real estate finance issued by the Shanghai headquarters of the central bank consists of four parts: the basic database of macro-prudential management of real estate finance, the macro-prudential monitoring system of real estate finance, the macro-prudential evaluation system of financial institutions and the policy toolbox.
Among them, the "Basic Database of Macro-prudential Management of Real Estate Finance" not only considers the rigid demand of the population for the real estate market, but also considers the influence of macroeconomic and financial factors (such as economic growth, financing scale, interest rate, exchange rate, stock market and other asset returns, cross-border capital flows, etc.). ) for the real estate market; Monitoring the real estate market and paying attention to the operation of real estate finance are the basis of macro-prudential management of real estate finance in Shanghai.
"Macro-prudential Monitoring System of Real Estate Finance" is a comprehensive index extracted from "Basic Database of Macro-prudential Management of Real Estate Finance", including comprehensive index of real estate market prosperity, systemic risk index of real estate market, stability index of bank operation and real estate financial order index, which is the core of macro-prudential management of real estate finance in Shanghai.
The "Macro-prudential Evaluation System of Financial Institutions" is mainly used to evaluate the real estate finance business of financial institutions within its jurisdiction, covering the concentration of real estate loans, soundness, credit structure, asset quality, implementation of differentiated housing credit policies, repayment ability of borrowers, implementation of market interest rate pricing self-discipline mechanism resolutions, and stress testing. This is an important part of macro-prudential management of Shanghai real estate finance.
The "Policy Toolbox" mainly includes: First, conduct regular prudent evaluation, guide the market interest rate pricing self-discipline mechanism according to the regulatory requirements of the Shanghai Municipal Party Committee and the Municipal Government, and adjust the minimum down payment ratio (corresponding to the internationally accepted loan-to-value ratio LTV) and the mortgage interest rate level within its jurisdiction; The second is to incorporate the evaluation results into the macro-prudential evaluation (MPA) of monetary policy and the evaluation of the guiding effect of credit policy, and implement differentiated incentive and restraint policies for financial institutions; Third, the macro-prudential assessment report of Shanghai real estate finance will be released to the society regularly to guide market expectations and promote the stable and healthy development of Shanghai real estate market.
It is worth noting that the macro-prudential management system of Shanghai's real estate finance was introduced for the first time, marking the establishment of a "trinity" risk monitoring and management system covering all fields of finance in Shanghai.
The first is the free trade account monitoring management information system. The system focuses on cross-border financial activities, and its function is to monitor cross-border financial activities in Shanghai on a case-by-case and enterprise-by-enterprise basis for 7*24 hours, and to monitor the financial reform trends in Shanghai Free Trade Zone in real time.
(The above answers were published on June 6, 2065438. Please refer to the actual purchase policy. )
For more real estate information, policy interpretation and expert interpretation, click to view.