1, Germany wins: In the competition of Steel Ambition 4, Germany needs to defeat the Soviet Union before the summer of 194 1 to trigger the Mannerhaim incident.
2. Conditions for military victory: The Mannerhaim incident needs to meet the conditions for military victory, that is, the Germans occupied at least two major industrial zones in the Soviet Union (Moscow and Leningrad) before the summer of 194 1.
3. Conditions for political victory: The Mannerhaim incident also needs to meet the conditions for political victory, that is, Germany needs to control at least two major industrial zones in the Soviet Union before the summer of 194 1, and the territory of Germany must include at least two Eastern European countries.