In recent years, most of the world economic downturn and financial pains stem from people's excessive consumption of future income, and the tool of indulging consumption is precisely the way to implement asset securitization.
Why asset securitization? Because the bank loan amount is insufficient. Whether banks in China are short of loanable funds under the constraints of deposit reserve and loan-to-deposit ratio, or banks in the United States expand credit lines in order to maintain profit growth and sell bank assets to investors through trust packaging, it is on the basis of ensuring that various banking supervision indicators are not broken, which makes the actual liabilities of society increase continuously, which is exactly what "shadow banks" do.
For China, the use of trust is a special feature, because banks and trust companies in China are directly under the jurisdiction of CBRC.
It is true that the emergence of asset securitization can solve many practical problems today when China is engaged in infrastructure construction, the export trade is sluggish, the RMB exchange rate is under the pressure of depreciation, and the quality of bank loans is obviously declining. But what are the risks in the future?
The biggest hidden danger of asset securitization is that its complexity easily hides the defects of credit quality. While diversifying risks, there are too many borrowers and the amount of each loan is too small, which will make credit analysts feel inadequate and inefficient. When a credit analyst spends almost the same amount of energy on a corporate bond project of 800 million yuan as analyzing the credit evaluation of a loan project of 3 million yuan, who dares to do credit analysis on a credit securitization behemoth of 654.38 billion yuan and packaged by countless small loans? Everyone is just a cursory look at the ratings and basic summary information. It is almost impossible to analyze the details of the quality of credit assets, and most analysts will turn their attention to the complex structure of asset securitization and then create this guarantee and that swap. But world history tells us that when the credit quality collapses, any structure is a cloud.
Even in China, anything new and risky is a good thing when it first comes out, especially the secondary products are borne by the host bank itself, and generally there will be no big mistakes. However, the experience has always been that the sponsors will not launch such projects on a large scale until they have proved the success of such projects with good performance in the early stage. At this time, the secondary products will move outside the direct interest circle related to the sponsors, so the world will not be far from collapse again. We should be careful of this mutation!
Extended reading
History of China's Asset Securitization: In 2006, the State Council gave the instruction of "following the principle of prudent promotion and prudently expanding the pilot scale". In 2008, affected by the US subprime mortgage crisis, the pilot was suspended at the end of the year.
Liu Xin, vice president of Guotai Junan Securities: The proportion of commercial banks participating in the subscription still accounts for 87%, which is mainly determined by the investor structure of China's inter-bank bond market, and it is difficult to change in the short term; This time, the participation of urban and rural commercial banks exceeds that of traditional state-owned banks and joint-stock banks, and brokers and funds are more active in subscription, which shows that the participating groups are expanding and the types of investors are diversifying.
Qiu, financial analyst of Guotai Junan: An important purpose of securitization of credit assets is to spread risks. It is unsustainable for banks to divest high-quality assets and issue asset-backed securities. Dealing with high-risk and non-performing assets is the motivation of banks.