165438+ 10. On 3 October, after the resumption of trading, Jingyeda, which was suspended due to sharp fluctuations in its share price, barely closed a board until the close. As early as its return, 6-board Zhizhen Technology (003007. SZ) scared the word limit.
Yang Long, who knows the leading tactics, can't help feeling: "It's really too difficult to do ultra-short relay now!"
In the history of almost every hot money tycoon, there are times when he makes quick money crazily, resulting in legends such as "ten thousand times in eight years" and "death squad with daily limit", which are still widely circulated in the investment circle.
"Ultra-short" and "beating the board" are the core secrets.
However, as long as we simply sort out their recent operation cases, we can find that the hot money bosses are no longer "the appearance of the year." Those ultra-short followers who came here have also embarked on the road of transformation after being in deep trouble.
Ultra-short tactics "failed" across the board
According to the interface news report, the small ticket once regarded as the "base camp" of ultra-short players has gradually become notorious.
Wind data shows that at the beginning of 20 17, the activity of A-share stocks was relatively uniform, and the proportion of the top 500 stocks in the total A-share trading volume once reached 4.29%.
However, after 20 17, the proportion of the top 500 stocks in the total turnover of A shares began to decline continuously, reaching the lowest point at 202 1, which was only 0.3 1%, down more than 90% from the previous high point.
Even though the turnover of 500 stocks has started to pick up recently, it accounts for only 0.6%-0.7% of the total turnover of A shares.
Figure: The proportion of the last 500 stocks in the A-share market to the total turnover of A-shares.
Source: wind
For the vast majority of hot money, the most important reason for the transformation is that "the original model can't play anymore".
Yang Long was deeply touched by this. With the skillful use of leading tactics, he has captured many big monster stocks in the past three years. For example, Shuguang shares (002838) that "got on the bus" in February 2020. SZ) earned more than four times in just one and a half months; Buy Beijing shares (600860. SH)202 1 took a heavy position near 12 yuan, and made a big profit in 28 yuan and left. During that time, the average reading volume of official WeChat account used by Yang Long to record personal trading emotions increased from 5,000 to 60,000+,and the backstage fans even reached 50W+.
But this year, Yang Long's once proud "unique skill" suddenly didn't work, because in many cases, Gaoban disappeared directly.
According to the interface message, as of June 165438+ 10/7, of the 2 1 1 trading days this year, there are 53 trading days with less than 4 boards, of which 16 trading days have 3 boards or less.
Figure: Number of leading height plates in the two cities
Source: wind
The so-called "a clever woman can't cook without rice", even the height board is gone, and the leading tactics that always pay attention to the three boards are naturally unsustainable.
Yang Long said that in the past, the market was generally dominated by a few leading stocks, and other hot spots were operated with the leading target as a reference. After the fourth board, the disk returned to emotion, and the chip game dominated.
"But since the beginning of this year, there have been fewer and fewer funds participating in such games, the market has become more casual, the plates have been switched very quickly, the height of the faucet has become lower and lower, and the plates and trading volume of the faucet have become smaller and smaller. The demon stocks that can come out are rare. "
Other types of ultra-short strategies also face similar difficulties.
"In the past, the popularity target in the market or the leading target in each wave of segmentation will be reversed. Now there are fewer high-end stocks, and many leading stocks go directly to A. Once they are bought, they will be big and there is no way to operate. " Miss Zhang, an ultra-short investor who is good at the strategy of low absorption of heavyweights, said with emotion.
The so-called low-sucking strategy of strong stocks generally refers to the opportunity for short-term strong stocks to pull back to important support lines. If they buy low-sucking, the game leading stocks will take the second wave.
As for topic mining, it's not that easy. According to Li Qiang, who specializes in hot money, many topics of speculation in the past two years have come from winning numbers, such as new energy vehicles, scenery storage and medicine. And there is absolutely no need to dig such a theme. Some small themes are basically impossible to stir up, or rotate very fast, and there is no significance for mining. Even after the catalytic news came out, many stocks directly evolved into good cash, often only eating noodles.
1 into 2 is also difficult to do. With the more familiar with this strategy, the winning rate is getting higher and higher. White, who is good at 1 in-2 strategy, successfully achieved the principal of more than 5 million yuan from 1 10,000 on 202 1 in just one year. Prior to this, he achieved a breakthrough in the principal from 1 ten thousand yuan to 1 ten thousand yuan.
However, when White strives to achieve his next small goal, he is greeted by "a changing market".
According to White, the core of his trading model is to be able to catch about 10% of the big meat tickets, and 90% of the trading targets are basically in small profits and small losses, and the overall situation is basically flat. In the past, I was able to catch about three big meat tickets a month on average, and even five tickets when I was lucky, but in the last six months, I may not be able to buy one in a month.
"The normal state now is that as soon as there is an opportunity, everyone will see more consistency and directly push the disk to a climax. The next day, there was disagreement and there was no way to relay. "
The reason is that Zhao Lei, the research director of a multi-strategy private equity firm in Guangzhou, believes that ultra-short speculation is actually a kind of information gap. You can react faster than others, and if you buy the target with poor expectations in advance, you can enjoy the sedan chair coming in from behind, and the profit will be very rich.
But in recent years, all kinds of "ultra-short tactics" tutorials are everywhere on the Internet, and a new theme comes out, and soon small forms are flying all over the sky. After the information gap is greatly shortened, the arbitrage space is also greatly compressed.
As for major themes such as photovoltaic and wind power, which are gathered by institutions and big hot money, they often take the trend "route" and are basically not suitable for ultra-short play.
The implementation of the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market 20CM has also greatly changed the previous relay atmosphere.
In Zhao Lei's view, the previous ultra-short relay strategy was a special product of the A-share 10% ups and downs system, but now 20CM has appeared, and many funds will directly choose to bid 20CM, and the third board is equivalent to the original six boards. At the same time, once you make a mistake one day, it may be close to 40 points, which will greatly weaken the enthusiasm of investors for high-level relay.
Value speculation prevails.
On the other hand, the trend of big tickets is getting worse and worse, such as scenery storage and new energy vehicle concept plate.
Wind data shows that at the beginning of 20 18, there were more than 700 stocks in the scenery storage and new energy automobile sectors, and the number has increased to more than 900 so far.
Taking 20 19 as the demarcation point, before that, the average daily turnover of related targets in the above sectors was about 70 billion yuan, accounting for about 15%-20% of the total turnover of the two cities. Since then, the turnover of related targets has gradually increased. On August 30th, 20021year, the daily turnover of the plate was as high as 591200 million.
Figure: New energy vehicles+wind power+photovoltaic+energy storage transactions
Source: wind
In addition, "Mao 20" has always been the best choice for capital groups.
Wind data shows that during most of 20 16, the turnover of gross 20 hovered around 8 billion, accounting for about 1%- 1.5% of the total turnover of A shares. Since then, the proportion of "Mao 20" in the whole market has been rising. By the end of February and the beginning of March of 20021,the proportion had exceeded 10%, and the average turnover was as high as10 billion, including 202 1 February 18.
Recently, the proportion of "gross 20" transactions in the two cities has declined, but the overall turnover has remained at around 6%, with a turnover of around 50 billion.
Figure: Gross 20 Combination Transaction
Source: wind
These holdings have become a new place for some hot money after the transformation.
Interface news noted that in recent years, some hot money bosses began to love big tickets with certain fundamentals, and frequently appeared in the dragon and tiger list as institutional seats.
Take Fang as an example. Tianqi Lithium Industry (002466. SZ), Changan Automobile (000625. SZ), BYD (002594. SZ) and so on. It used to be its "heart water stock", and the amount on the list in a single day is often more than 654.38 billion yuan.
Zhang Jianping, Shanghai Liyang Road, Zuoshou Xinyi, stock trading to support the family, small crocodile and other well-known hot money in the market often throw out some popular trend tickets with hundreds of millions of yuan at a time in the game market. This has become the established "gameplay" of hot money bosses.
These hot money bosses often directly choose some targets that have gone out of the trend and frequently appear on their dragon and tiger lists.
Take Fang Xiaxin's operation of Jiu 'an Medical Care at the beginning of this year as an example. Its common seat, Xi 'an Zhuque Street of CITIC Securities, appeared on the Dragon and Tiger List 16 times from 1.5 to April 15, with a cumulative turnover of 3.798 billion yuan. During this period, another ordinary seat of Fang, Shaanxi Branch of Industrial Securities, was also listed on Jiu 'an Medical Dragon and Tiger List for four times, with a total turnover of 979 million yuan.
65438+ 15 years1From October 5 to April 5, the share price of Jiu 'an Medical soared, with the largest increase of11%.
Li Qiang, who specializes in hot money, believes that this mode of operation basically selects some large orders with fundamental support, which can meet the requirements of hot money bosses for capital throughput, and at the same time, they are stocks related to hot topics. Compared with traditional value investment, the operation cycle is shorter and the income is very considerable. If summed up in one word, it is more like "value speculation".
According to the statistics of interface news, the transaction of ordinary seats on the Dragon and Tiger List in recent years shows that from June 20201to the beginning of 20021,the overall performance of the party was relatively active, but after 20021,the transaction declined rapidly.
In Zhao Lei's view, this frequent reduction is related to the weak market on the one hand, and may also mean that Founder is exploring other investment strategies, such as relying on trends.
Table: the turnover of seats in the dragon and tiger list in the past two years.
Source: wind
As for the small and medium-sized hot money players, including Yang Long and Miss Zhang, their mood has changed obviously and they have begun to seek transformation when the effectiveness of the ultra-short strategy has been greatly weakened.
When Miss Zhang is short-selling, he is not afraid of fluctuations of more than ten points a day. If he loses money, just cut it, immediately cut it to a new target, and soon he will get his blood back. But this year, he was afraid of losing money directly, and he began to shrink back as soon as he made a move, and he could no longer find the original momentum. Recently, the object of Miss Zhang's transaction is gradually moving closer to holding shares, mainly based on the low absorption of institutional heavy stocks.
Zhao Lei, who has made in-depth research on many strategies, gradually gave up some emotional strategies in recent six months and began to turn to trend strategies. "Mainly in the current market environment, emotional funds are very easy to be trampled on. If you accidentally go down, the risk exposure of the whole transaction will be too large. "
More and more players leave, which in turn increases the difficulty of playing ultra-short games. At present, the ultra-short ecology has obviously entered a vicious circle.
Who's showstopper?
Why do hot money bosses embrace trend tickets in unison?
In Zhao Lei's view, in recent years, Public Offering of Fund, which is dominated by bands, and northbound capital, which is dominated by strong trends, have become "decisive forces" that affect the style of the A-share market. Therefore, if hot money wants to survive, it can only be "icing on the cake" in the direction of holding a number of institutions.
According to the data of China Fund Industry Association, as of the end of September, there were 40 fund management companies/KLOC-0 in China, and the net assets of Public Offering of Fund totaled 26.59 trillion yuan.
Interface news counts the transaction of institutional seats in the Dragon and Tiger List since 20 17. In order to make the visual effect more prominent, the data is smoothed by a 20-day moving average.
From June 20 17 to the beginning of 2020, the amount of institutional seats on the list was mostly below 10 billion yuan. After June 2020, the number of seats reserved for institutions began to increase substantially, and once rose in August and September, reaching 202 1.
Typical, such as the 3-day dragon and tiger list data disclosed by Salt Lake Co., Ltd. (000792). SZ) On August 20th, the cumulative turnover of institutional seats was as high as 7 1 1 billion yuan, and the net purchase amount was 403 million yuan.
In addition, it is worth mentioning that in the past month or so, the turnover of special seats for institutions in the Dragon and Tiger List has started to grow steadily again, from about10.50 billion at the beginning of October to about 2.8 billion at present, almost doubling.
Table: The total turnover of special seats for institutions in the Dragon and Tiger List is 20 scales.
Source: wind
Since the opening of 20 14 Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, northbound funds have played an increasingly important role in the A-share market. Wind data shows that at the beginning of 20 17, the turnover of northbound funds was more than 5 billion, accounting for about 1.2% in the two cities, and then it began to expand. By the beginning of July 2020, the daily turnover has reached about150 billion.
Although funds have been continuously flowing out from the north recently, the daily turnover is still around10 billion, and the proportion of transactions between the two cities is still around 12.5%.
Table: Northbound Capital Transaction
Source: wind
The strengthening of the right to speak in Public Offering of Fund and Beishang directly led to the intensification of institutional solidarity in recent years. As the most sensitive hot money in the market, it will naturally join the "battlefield" of solidarity stocks in the process of continuous strength, which further leads to the obvious polarization of the market and the dilemma of no one relaying emotional targets.
In addition, the tightening of the regulatory environment in recent years is also an important reason for the transformation of many hot money. 20 17 Foshan was fined for hot money, which was an important watershed. Since then, many hot money has put compliance in a more important position.
In the final analysis, the "ultra-short" thinking of hot money in the past has an indelible mark of the times. Today, the market environment has undergone tremendous changes, which is no longer applicable and the transformation is imminent.
Zhao Lei, who has been constantly switching between multiple strategies, is now doing more and more smoothly in the trend strategy. For example, recently, the model it developed has successively captured a number of big meat tickets such as Zhongfu Information, Tailin Bio, Miaozhan and Oujing Technology. "Trend strategy will be the big trend in the future," Zhao Lei said.