20 18 has finally passed, and this year is a year of shrinking wealth. We have experienced A-share plunge, P2P thunder, stock pledge, RMB decline, trade friction and so on, which makes investors feel anxious.
Whether it is ordinary small scattered stock assets, the huge wealth of major shareholders, or the great ambition of capital predators, it is all in this year, and things have changed, and spring dreams are illusory.
However, in a person's eyes, all this has long been doomed to "fate and reincarnation." He is Zhou Jintao, the former chief economist of China Securities Investment Company who died two years ago.
There is a famous saying in Zhou Jintao that "people get rich by Kangbo", which means that everyone's wealth accumulation must not be thought because you have many skills, and wealth accumulation comes entirely from the opportunities given to you during the economic cycle movement.
In this era, if you want to earn a little money, you can eat, drink and work hard, but if you want to make big money and get to the peak of your life, you still have to rely on the trend.
In 2007, Zhou Jintao was famous for successfully predicting the subprime mortgage crisis, the so-called Kangbo recession. 20 16 predicted 20 18 bear market, and the market forecast was gradually confirmed. There are still some predictions to be confirmed. One of the most important predictions is:
For people over 40 years old, the first opportunity in life is in 2008, the second opportunity is in 20 19 years, and the last opportunity is near 2030. If you can catch it once, you can become a middle class.
People born after 1985 and now under 30 can only get their first chance in life in 20 19.
20 18 global stock market
On 20 18, A shares showed a downward trend, with the cumulative decline of 24.59% in the Shanghai Composite Index and 34.42% in the Shenzhen Component Index, both the second largest declines in history.
In terms of individual stocks, only 295 stocks rose in 20 18, accounting for 8.27%. If the new shares listed on 20 18 are excluded, the number of stocks rising on 20 18 will drop to 220, accounting for 6.35%.
The small and medium-sized board index ranked first with a cumulative decline of 37.75%, while the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index fell by 19.83%, with a relatively small decline.
In 20 18, the total market value of A shares shrank by 13.76 trillion yuan, including 6.67 trillion yuan in Shanghai and 7.09 trillion yuan in Shenzhen.
In terms of public equity funds, 20 18, the stock base has no positive returns.
Even private equity funds that pursue absolute returns are hard to get rid of the fate of "looking up to heaven to eat". This has been a difficult year. Looking back now, this year's losses were very heavy.
Golden Axe data shows that as of the middle of February, the average loss of 288 long and short products included in the statistics reached11.01%; The average loss of 3 17 portfolio fund is 6.09%, the average loss of 500 composite strategy fund is 6.05%, and the average loss of 143 macro strategy fund is 3.33%.
According to statistics, the market value of global stock markets plummeted by nearly 12 trillion dollars in the past year. Such a large decline in market value is the biggest since the financial crisis and the second largest in history. If we calculate from the highest points of 20 18 and 18, the loss of global stock market value is even more alarming, reaching $20 trillion.
In terms of US stocks, 20 18, S&P fell by 6.24%, Dow fell by 5.63% and Nasdaq fell by 3.88%, all of which were the biggest annual percentage declines since 2008.
In the European stock market, STOXX Europe 600 Index fell by about 13% for the whole year, which was the worst performance since the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in 2008. The euro zone stock market hit its biggest annual decline since 20 1 1.
The French CAC40 index fell 10.95% for the whole year. Britain's FTSE 100 index fell 12.5% for the whole year, the biggest annual decline since 2008.
20 19 may be your biggest chance.
Now, on the first day of 20 19, let's review Zhou Jintao's most classic speeches. About 20 19, Zhou Jintao, the "king of cycles", famously predicted as follows:
According to Zhou Jintao, former chief economist of China Securities Investment Company, the accumulation of wealth comes entirely from the opportunity given by the time of economic cycle movement. What investors can do is to grasp the trend and inflection point of cyclical movement and follow the trend. 20 18-20 19 is the black year of the Compaq cycle and the worst stage in 60 years. 20 19 should seize the opportunity and buy at a low point.
In Zhou Jintao's speech "Life is a Compaq" in March, 20 16, Mr. Fund sorted out some opinions and gave you some reference on the investment road of 20 19.
1 and the 60-year economic cycle: there are three wealth opportunities in life.
The accumulation of wealth of each of us must not be considered as your ability. The accumulation of wealth comes entirely from the opportunity given to you by the time of economic cycle movement.
For example, in the past decade, the typical Chinese wealth was the coal boss. I believe everyone thinks that the coal boss is definitely not as capable as me. He became a coal boss because of the opportunity given by the weather. According to Kondratiev's theory, this is a bull market for commodities, which gives coal bosses a chance to make a fortune in life.
Theoretically, a person can only get three chances in his life. If you don't seize every opportunity, you will definitely lose your life wealth. If you seize one of these opportunities, you can at least become a middle class.
The wealth track of our life is traceable. The wealth track of life is the Kondratiev cycle.
The longest cycle in the world economic cycle movement is the Kondratiev cycle once every 60 years. As we all know, 60 years old is a person's natural life expectancy is 60 years. As China said, the 60-year cycle is a Kondratiev cycle. It can be divided into recovery, prosperity, recession and depression.
People over 40 will get a second chance on 20 19.
According to my long-term research, your life opportunities are basically given by Kangbo's sports.
It's not very important that you got a job in CITIC Securities ten years ago. It is really important for everyone to buy a house next to CITIC Jiantou Securities ten years ago, because CITIC Jiantou is located in Chaoyangmen, Beijing, and now the house has risen tenfold, and everyone can't earn it in ten years. The wealth of life depends not on wages, but on your investment in asset prices.
Is your investment in asset prices a time rule? It must be bought at a low price. There is no point in buying a house at this time. In a person's 60-year-old life, he participated in economic life for 30 years. In the past 30 years, Kangbo has only given you three opportunities to get rich, regardless of your subjective will.
People over 40 had their first chance in life in 2008. If you had bought stocks and houses, your life would have been very successful. The last chance in life before 2008 was 1999, and not many people aged 40 seized that opportunity, so 2008 was the first chance.
The second chance is 20 19, and the last time is about 30 years. If you can catch it once, you can become a middle class. This is the reason why life depends on Kangbo to make a fortune.
Buffett is nothing. Why he succeeded in investing is because he was born in the recovery stage of the fifth Campo cycle, so he can succeed. If he doesn't succeed now, it is doomed.
Why did Bill Gates appear in America at that time? Because of the advanced technology at that time, China can't produce Bill Gates now. Your life chances depend on Kangbo's sports. Some people think they are awesome, have great skills and make a lot of money. In fact, everyone is running in life. This is what I believe very much after studying the economic cycle. A person's life is doomed.
The simplest thing is that people born after 1985, people under 30 now, are doomed that your life opportunity will only appear for the first time on 20 19, and before 35, so people aged 25 to 30 now can only rely on good jobs in the next five years. Because buying a house is nothing, it is determined by the fate of your life's wealth, and there is no way.
I mean, when we plan the wealth of life, we must know that everyone is running in the big social system. The big social system gives you time and opportunity, and you have time and opportunity. This big system didn't give you a chance, and it's no use trying hard in this respect.
Last year (note 20 15), I resigned and became the chief economist. The reason is that I think it will be more difficult to do things in the next four years than in the past six years. Moreover, before the Great Depression, a society was bound to have a tendency to split, which can be seen in theory, so it is normal for some tendencies to appear in politics.
In this case, you have only two choices in life: one is to do a fake job like me, fool around every day, fool around when you are in a good mood, and stay at home when you are in a bad mood, which is a choice; Another option is that the future must be a heroic era. You can be a saint or a martyr. This is another life path that you can choose, and you can choose in the future.
I think the next four years will really be a time of great changes in society, especially for people after 1985. It's true, the biggest opportunity of your life is coming. This is my view of the future.
3. Two ways to eliminate the wealth of the middle class
After 20 15, the world should enter the depression stage of Kangbo. What will happen before Kangbo's depression comes? I believe everyone has seen this phenomenon. We feel that there is a lot of liquidity in our hands. Everyone has made money by speculating in stocks in the past six years, and everyone has stopped making money at 20 15.
What shall we do? I need to preserve the value of my money, so everyone thought of a way to buy real estate in the core area of first-tier cities. The second way is to engage in some emerging industries, and many people have invested in many new three boards. From my heart, these two methods are both ways to eliminate the wealth of the middle class.
My own investment discipline is not to buy a house after 20 14. Now is the rebound stage of China's real estate cycle, that is, there is only a slight increase, so what you see must be a bear market rebound. What do we do? People who sell, people who shouldn't buy, and people who speculate in stocks all understand the simplest truth. So now it should be the real estate cash-out stage.
The second emerging industry sought after by everyone, because I studied long wave theory, I can see clearly that the so-called internet plus is actually the technological innovation of Compaq and the last mature stage of information technology.
As we all know, information technology broke out in the 1980s, and in the 1990s, it was launched in the leading countries in the United States. When technology spread from leading countries to China, and China was the pursuer of this round of Campo, it spread to China and every corner of life, so what do you think is the future of this technology?
A technology must have reached the last stage of its life cycle when it has reached omnipotence in catching up with the penetration of the country, and this technology is followed by the trend of maturity and decline.
So I told my friends that 20 16 and 20 17 are the redemption stages of the new third board. Whether it can be saved depends on your fate. This matter is beyond my control. Don't think you have to cash it.
When you see these two phenomena, it means that Compaq will enter a recession. You will suddenly find that after experiencing a stagflation, 20 16 to 20 17 is stagflation, and once you find the assets with poor liquidity, you may not want them.
After this stage, it will enter the currency elimination mechanism, that is, the prices of these assets will fall, which is what Compaq theory tells us.
Every depression in Kangbo is stagflation, followed by the stage of eliminating inflation. So in the future, people may suddenly feel that their current assets are not enough or gone. This is also the reason why everyone issues bonds quickly. You can have cash flow and even buy assets at the current low price. By 2025, it will be the fifth stage of Campo Shaw.
The fourth depression in Campo was in 1970, and the third depression was in 1920, which was the Great Depression in the United States. Campo theory describes the long-term operation of the world economy.
4.20 19 years house price will be a low point.
The real estate cycle cycles once every 20 years, and a person can encounter two real estate cycles. Why? As a group, people will buy a house twice in their life. The first time was when I got married, with an average age of 27, and the second time was when I bought a house for the second time. Improving demand is about 42 years old. The peak of a person's consumption appears at the age of 46. After the age of 46, this person's consumption will go down, and your consumption will gradually change from house to old-age care.
Houses are consumed about twice in a lifetime, about once every 20 years. The real estate cycle is once every 20 years. China's current real estate cycle began at 1999. According to the law of real estate cycle, it is divided into three waves. The first wave was from 2000 to 2007, and rose again after 2009. 20 13 and 20 14, the high point of the national real estate cycle is judged at 20 14.
But by 20 15, everyone suddenly found that the house was selling well again. In 20 16, the real estate in the core areas of first-tier cities soared, but this was not a real estate restart, but a wave. It is a bull market that houses in third-and fourth-tier cities can rise, junk stocks do not rise, and a small number of stocks rise is not a bull market. This is a wave of rebound in the real estate cycle.
Therefore, near the first half of 20 17, this round of rebound in China will end. If you own the property in the core area of the city and you don't, I think you should sell it in the next year. This is my advice to everyone.
After selling the house, you find that you can buy a lot of very cheap assets, and the price-performance ratio has changed. This is the real estate cycle. Don't think that you can't buy back the property if you sell it. There is nothing in this world that only goes up but doesn't fall. House prices will be a low point in 20 19, and will fall back in 20 17 and 20 18. This is a real estate cycle. With a 20-year cycle, 15 years rises and 5 years falls, and so does the United States.
In 2007, American house prices began to fall, hitting bottom around 20 1 1. Buying a house in America, everyone is a little different. My research is mainly on global asset allocation, and there are studies in the United States and Europe. China is in the eastern hemisphere of the world, and the United States is in the western hemisphere. The starting point of the real estate cycle in the eastern and western hemispheres differs by ten points.
The starting point of real estate in China is 2000, and that in the United States is 20 10. After 20 10, there was a bull market in the United States, and 20 17 was the first wave of high points. If you buy a house in America, you can wait. Now it is also the first wave of high points. Everyone will not be quilted if they buy now, because the rising period is not over yet.
As an ordinary citizen, no matter what your knowledge is, you are no different from your aunt. This means this kind of thing has nothing to do with IQ. This is the opportunity of your life, it depends on whether you can seize it.
5. The last low point appeared at 20 19.
That low point may be much lower than everyone thinks.
In 20 17 years, everyone will know whether my judgment is right or not. I once judged in 2007 that 2008 will have the influence of Kondratiev's cyclical recession, that is, the subprime mortgage crisis that everyone saw.
20 14, 10 in June, I published a report, and there was a second shock in the second quarter of 20 15. After the second quarter, the stock market plummeted and the RMB depreciated regularly, and the movement of asset prices was by no means regular. Everyone could see it.
In the middle of 20 17, after the third quarter, we will see the asset prices in China and the United States all-round decline, reaching the final low point in 20 19. That low point may be much lower than everyone thinks. This is the Compaq theory that I can tell you now.
A Kangbo movement is driven by technological innovation. At this time, Kangbo began to pick up at 1982. As we all know, 1975 to 1982 is the last depression stage of Kangbo.
If you know the history of the world economy, you should know that the global stagflation, the United States and Britain do supply-side reform. I think everyone is happy to negotiate supply-side reform. Supply-side reform is a sign that the world has entered a depression. There seems no need to be cheerful. In fact, when it comes to supply-side reform, it is bound to enter a depression.
Prosperity is the information technology bubble in the United States from 199 1 to 1994, which is a symbol of Kangbo's prosperity. After the American bubble burst, the economy grew for another seven or eight years.
Therefore, before 2008, it was the golden stage of Compaq in the world economy. From 2004 to 20 15, it should be the decline period of this Kangbo. What we can see in the recession is that although the economic growth is not so good, we can still get great significance from asset prices, which everyone can feel. For example, since 2009, our stock market and bond market, from a big perspective, have both gone up and made profits. This is the decline stage of Compaq.
6. Value preservation and liquidity are the core issues in the next five years.
The next five years will be a period of declining assets. At this time, everyone should try to hold assets with good liquidity, not assets with poor liquidity. Like a tall house, it is an asset with poor liquidity, and the equity in the primary market is also an asset with poor liquidity.
Why do you want to mention the new third board? It is difficult to sell because of poor liquidity. In the future investment, everyone must pay attention to the fact that making money is not important. The first goal is to preserve value, and the second is liquidity. These two issues should be paid great attention to when you invest in the next five years, and should be the core issues.
This is a life planning with Kondratiev theory. In the 60-year movement, there will be three real estate cycles, which fluctuate once every 20 years and once every 10 years. A fixed asset investment cycle has three inventory cycles.
Therefore, your life is a Kangbo, three real estate cycles, nine fixed assets investment cycles and eighteen inventory cycles, and a person's life is such a process.
There are many people who express different views from me, and the cycle needs to be changed. Some people express this view. In fact, these are all refutations to my views. It doesn't matter. We can see them in the future.
7. Exercise and come back on 20 19.
For the future, I want to remind you that the period from 20 18 to 20 19 is a dull year and the worst stage in 60 years, so we must control the risks of 20 18 and 20 19. Before that, make full cash preparations, and now you can issue bonds, and there will be cash in five years.
For individuals, selling investment real estate and the equity of the New Third Board next year, buying gold, taking two years off, exercising and coming back on 20 19 is everyone's future life plan.
(Article Source: China Fund News)
(Original title: Revisiting the "King of the Cycle" on the first day of the new year. Zhou Jintao: There are only three opportunities for wealth in life, which will only appear once every 20 19 years)