Viewpoint Real Estate Network News: 65438+ 10/0/5, the central bank released the financial statistics report for 20 18.
According to the report, at the end of 12, the balance of broad money (M2) was 182.67 trillion yuan, up 8. 1% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0. 1 percentage point higher than the end of last month, which was the same as the same period of last year. The balance of narrow money (M 1) was 551700 million yuan, up by 1.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate was the same as that at the end of last month, which was 10.3 percentage points lower than the same period of last year. The balance of money in circulation (M0) was 7.32 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%. The annual net cash investment was 256.3 billion yuan.
In terms of loans, the balance of domestic and foreign currency loans was 14 1.75 trillion yuan at the end of February, up by 12.9% year-on-year. At the end of the month, the balance of RMB loans was 136.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.5%, and the growth rate was 0.4 and 0.8 percentage points higher than that at the end of last month and the same period of last year respectively.
In the whole year, RMB loans increased by 16. 17 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.64 trillion yuan over the same period of last year. By sector, household loans increased by 7.36 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 2.4 1 trillion yuan and medium-and long-term loans increased by 4.95 trillion yuan; Loans from non-financial enterprises and government organizations increased by 8.3 1 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 498.2 billion yuan, medium-and long-term loans increased by 5.6 trillion yuan, and bill financing increased by10.89 trillion yuan; Loans from non-banking financial institutions increased by 440,654.38 billion yuan. In February, RMB loans increased by10.08 trillion yuan, an increase of 499.5 billion yuan over the same period of last year.
At the end of February, the balance of foreign currency loans was $794.8 billion, down 5.2% year-on-year. In the whole year, foreign currency loans decreased by 436,543.8 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 95.3 billion US dollars. In February, 65438, foreign currency loans decreased by 1 1 billion dollars, with a year-on-year decrease of15.8 billion dollars.
In terms of deposits, at the end of February, the balance of foreign currency deposits was 182.52 trillion yuan, up by 7.8% year-on-year. At the end of the month, the balance of RMB deposits was 177.52 trillion yuan, up 8.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.6 percentage points higher than the end of last month and 0.8 percentage points lower than the same period of last year.
In the whole year, RMB deposits increased by 13.4 trillion yuan, but decreased by10,71billion yuan year-on-year. Among them, household deposits increased by 7.2 trillion yuan, non-financial enterprises increased by 2 1.6 trillion yuan, fiscal deposits decreased by 59.6 billion yuan, and non-banking financial institutions increased by 1.96 trillion yuan. In February of 65438, RMB deposits increased by 91600 million yuan, an increase of 884.5 billion yuan year-on-year.
At the end of February, the balance of foreign currency deposits was $727.5 billion, down 8% year-on-year. Foreign currency deposits decreased by $63.4 billion and increased by $65,438+0.410.30 billion. In February 65438, foreign currency deposits decreased by $3.9 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of/kloc-0.04 billion.
In addition, from 2065438 to 2008, the total amount of RMB transactions in the inter-bank market was 10 12.7 1 trillion yuan, with an average daily turnover of 4.02 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.4%. Among them, the average daily turnover of interbank lending increased by 75.7% year-on-year, the average daily turnover of cash bonds increased by 46% year-on-year, and the average daily turnover of pledged repo increased by 20% year-on-year.
The weighted average interest rate of interbank lending in June 5438+February was 2.57%, 0.08 percentage points higher than the end of last month and 0.34 percentage points lower than the same period last year; The weighted average interest rate of pledged repo was 2.68%, 0.22 percentage points higher than the end of last month and 0.43 percentage points lower than the same period last year.
The data also shows that in 20 18, the cross-border trade, foreign direct investment and foreign direct investment of goods, services and other current accounts settled in RMB were 3.66 trillion yuan, 1.45 trillion yuan, 8048 1 billion yuan and 1.86 trillion yuan respectively. The balance of China's foreign exchange reserves is US$ 3.07 trillion. 65438+At the end of February, the RMB exchange rate was 1 USD to 6.8632 RMB.
Rare! The central bank released this mortgage data for the first time, adding 1000 billion yuan.
Personal housing loans have been loosened. According to the latest data released by the central bank in June 1 10, the balance of personal housing loans at the end of June 200210 was 37.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 348 1065438 over September.
In addition, the lending of real estate development loans also increased significantly in June 5438+1October, and the lending of real estate loans by banks further increased in early June 5438+065438+1October. It is expected that the growth trend of real estate loans will continue this month.
The real estate sector rebounded strongly today, with Hong Kong stocks 15 real estate stocks rebounding more than 10%.
For the first time, the central bank released the monthly data of individual housing loans separately. What is the signal?
"The reasonable financing demand of real estate is being met." 165438+ 10/0, a chief analyst of the financial industry commented after the central bank released 202 1 and 10 personal housing loan statistics.
On the same day, the central bank released the monthly financial statistics report of 10, showing that RMB loans of136.4 billion yuan increased by 826.2 billion yuan year-on-year. By sector, household loans increased by 464.7 billion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 42.6 billion yuan and medium-and long-term loans increased by 422,654.38+0 billion yuan.
It is worth noting that the central bank also released 10 monthly personal housing loan statistics, which is the first time that the central bank has released individual housing loan data separately. The data shows that at the end of 20021and 10, the balance of individual housing loans was 37.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 348 10/0/0/300 million yuan in that month, compared with September.
"The improvement of personal housing loans in June 5438+ 10 shows that residents' willingness to buy houses has increased marginally. "Zhang Xu, chief fixed income analyst of Everbright Securities, said. Zhaowei, chief economist of Open Source Securities, also said that the year-on-year shrinkage of residents' medium and long-term loans in June 5438+ 10 was related to the "loose" regulation of some provinces and cities under the policy of "depending on the city", and the follow-up needs to be closely tracked.
According to the calculation of the reporter of 2 1 Century Business Herald, as far as the medium and long-term loans of the above-mentioned residents are concerned, it is the first year-on-year growth since May this year, with an increase of162 billion yuan.
10 year 10 People's Republic of China (PRC) Liu He, Vice Premier of the People's Republic of China delivered a written speech at the 20021financial street forum, saying that there are some problems in the current real estate market, but the risks are generally controllable, the reasonable capital demand is being met, and the overall situation of the healthy development of the real estate market will not change.
The reporter of 265438+20th Century Business Herald recently confirmed from a local central bank in a southern province that in June of 5438+00, the central bank had conveyed the contents of accurately grasping the prudent management policy requirements of real estate finance, steadily developing real estate loan business and keeping real estate credit stable and orderly, and branches of the People's Bank of China in some areas began to provide window guidance according to local conditions.
"Our leaders attended the relevant meetings, and after coming back, they also conveyed the main spirit of the meeting, but they did not let the record." The above-mentioned local central bankers told the reporter of 2 1 Century Business Herald.
Recently, the president of a branch of a joint-stock bank suggested at an internal meeting that the administrative purchase restriction policy in some areas can be appropriately relaxed and the housing needs of new citizens can be properly taken care of at interest rates. The vice president of another joint-stock bank branch also suggested that the financial management department should gradually restore market confidence. If the house price falls by a large margin, it will generate greater risks and transmit them to the financial system.
Recently, the competent media of the central bank said that according to the current situation, under the condition of total control, the real estate credit adjustment of more institutions will be adjusted across regions; Whether the improved real estate credit policy environment can promote the steady development of the real estate industry, the formulation of subsequent policies and detailed rules and their implementation in various places are also key factors.
Zou Lan, director of the financial market department of the central bank, said at the press conference of financial statistics in the third quarter that it is a normal market phenomenon for financial institutions to shrink their risk appetite for the real estate industry at this stage; Some financial institutions have some misunderstandings about the financing management rules of pilot housing enterprises. They misunderstand that the balance of interest-bearing liabilities of "red-file" enterprises should not be increased, which means that banks should not issue new development loans, resulting in a tight capital chain for some housing enterprises.
In addition, according to relevant media reports, the credit environment of the second-hand housing market in Wuxi and Zhengzhou has continued to be loose recently. For example, some banks that suspended the second-hand housing business a few months ago have now resumed accepting second-hand housing loans; The second-hand housing mortgage business of some banks in Zhengzhou has basically returned to normal, and the lending speed has obviously accelerated.
In the third quarter, the leverage ratio of residents buying houses fell to a 9-year low.
Personal loans in the first three quarters of this year can be described as tight as a whole. The report "Research on the National Housing Leverage Ratio in the Third Quarter" released by Yiju Research Institute shows that in the third quarter of 2002/kloc-0, the balance of individual housing loans increased by 790 billion yuan, down 13% from the previous quarter and down 36% from the same period last year. Judging from the proportion of personal mortgage loans in the new RMB loans nationwide, in the third quarter of 20021the new amount of personal housing mortgage loans accounted for 20% of the new domestic loans, up by 2 percentage points from the previous month and down by 10 percentage points from the same period last year.
In the third quarter of 200214, the amount of individual housing loans continued to decline, and the proportion of individual housing loans in new RMB loans nationwide reached a new low since the same period of 20 14. The leverage ratio of the national residents to purchase houses has been declining, hitting a new low of nearly 9 years, and the 100-city house price index has a downward turning point.
In addition, the report pointed out that since the beginning of this year, the amount of bank loans in many cities has been tight, and the lending cycle has been lengthened. Some cities have stopped second-home and second-hand housing loans, and personal mortgage interest rates in key cities have been rising all the way, exceeding the high of 5% in many places. In the third quarter of 200213, the leverage ratio of housing purchase of residents nationwide was 24.8%, down by 1.2 percentage points from the previous month and 6.8 percentage points from the same period last year. This indicator has been declining continuously since the second quarter of last year, reaching a new low of nearly nine years since the fourth quarter of 20 12.
However, after entering 10, mortgage lending in some areas has accelerated. "The bank's personal mortgage quota has been relaxed a lot recently, and the information is complete, and the loan is no problem." An intermediary who has been helping customers apply for bank loans for a long time said. It is understood that most banks in the region have sufficient quotas, and the fastest lending time is only 1 month, while the previous lending time is more than half a year.
The loan interest rate dropped first, and the real estate stocks are high today!
With the loosening of lending, the interest rate has also loosened. In June, the mortgage interest rate dropped for the first time in 5438+ 10. According to the RealData report, during the period of 1 basis point, the average interest rates of the first and second home loans in 90 cities were 5.73% and 5.99% respectively.
Since the beginning of this year, due to the credit risk of individual real estate enterprises, financial institutions have strictly controlled loans to the real estate industry, and even overcorrected them. The financial management department corrected this in time. Since September, the financial authorities have repeatedly stressed "to meet the reasonable capital demand of the real estate market".
At the end of September this year, the People's Bank of China and the China Banking Regulatory Commission jointly held a forum on real estate finance to guide major banks to accurately grasp and implement the prudent management system of real estate finance, maintain the smooth and orderly delivery of real estate credit, and maintain the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
For the obvious slowdown in the growth rate of real estate loans in the first three quarters, Zou Lan, director of the Financial Markets Department of the People's Bank of China, said in June 65438+ 10/5 that on the one hand, due to the recent exposure of some large-scale housing enterprises, the risk appetite of financial institutions for the real estate industry has dropped significantly, and there has been a consistent contraction behavior; On the other hand, some financial institutions have some misunderstandings about the "three-line and four-file" financing management rules, which makes it impossible for projects that should be reasonably supported to obtain loans, and also causes some housing enterprises to have a tight capital chain to some extent.
When the policy was loosened, the capital market immediately reveled. In June165438+1October 10, the real estate sector soared, and the A-share real estate sector rose by 2.84%, ranking first in the increase list. Among them, Beijing Investment Development and Poly Development rose by more than 7%, and Gemdale rose by 6%.
The H-share market is even more rapid, with 15 stocks rising by more than 10%, of which Strength Jianye rose by 20.79% and Shimao Group rose by 16.93%.
On June 5,438+10, the national individual housing loan increased by 1000 billion yuan. What do these figures mean?
This shows that people's desire to buy a house has reached its peak. In addition, the state gave the green light to the loan to buy a house, and people made full use of this favorable condition. Recently, the mortgage policy has been adjusted to promote the stable development of the real estate market. Housing financing is returning to normal, and residents' willingness to buy houses is also increasing marginally.
Extended data:
First, the state's regulation of the real estate market
1, at the personal level: after early regulation, residents' understanding of the real estate market gradually returned to rationality, and houses gradually returned from investment products to residential needs in some people's consciousness, and people's expectations of the real estate market also changed. For the real estate market, expectations are very important. In fact, a great supporting factor of irrational development in the early stage is the expectation of rising house prices, but this expectation is out of date. But on the other hand, in order to ensure the healthy development of the real estate market, it is not to let people form overly pessimistic expectations for the real estate market. After all, excessively pessimistic expectations run counter to the healthy development of the real estate market.
2. Policy level: "Living without speculation" is the basic orientation of China real estate market development at present and in the future. The irrational development of the real estate market will lead to many economic and social problems, with less advantages and more disadvantages, so I won't go into details here, so the central government is determined to let the real estate market return to the normal development track. However, it should also be clear that letting the real estate market return to the rational development track does not mean blindly suppressing the real estate market, but maintaining its healthy development. There is no doubt that the real estate market is an important part of the economy, and its reasonable development will have a positive effect on the economy and help meet people's housing needs. The cross-cycle adjustment of macro policies will also take into account the stable development of the real estate market.
3. Financial level:
First, we should guard against the risks of the real estate market, including the excessive growth of housing prices and the debt problems of real estate developers, and transmit them to the financial sector;
Second, ensure the credit demand of rigid housing groups, and support first-time buyers in terms of loan down payment ratio and interest rate. For example, the data shows that more than 90% of bank personal housing loans are the first home loan; Third, the credit changes related to the real estate market are part of the overall credit situation of the economy, and the tightness within a certain range is normal. Moreover, real estate is an important part of the real economy, and reasonable credit support is normal, but credit policy will not support the irrational development of the real estate market;
Fourth, financial institutions have their own pace and grasp in real estate credit while meeting regulatory requirements. The low growth rate of personal housing loan in the early stage left a lot of room for the subsequent credit situation;
5. Moderately increasing personal housing loans (including other related loans in the real estate market) while ensuring rigid demand is conducive to alleviating the debt problem of some real estate developers and restraining the negative effects of the real estate market from spreading to other market entities.
Balance of local and foreign currency loans at the end of 2022 1
1. Broad money increased by 9.8%
1 At the end of the year, the balance of broad money (M2) was 243 1 trillion yuan, up 9.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.8 and 0.4 percentage points higher than that at the end of last month and the same period of last year respectively. The balance of narrow money (M 1) was 6 1.39 trillion yuan, down 1.9% year-on-year. Excluding the influence of the Spring Festival, M 1 increased by about 2% year-on-year. The balance of money in circulation (M0) 10.62 trillion yuan, up 18.5% year-on-year. Net cash investment in the month was 1.54 trillion yuan.
Two. June 5,438+10 RMB loans increased by 3.98 trillion.
1 At the end of the year, the balance of local and foreign currency loans was 202.59 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1 1.2%. At the end of the month, the balance of RMB loans was 196.65 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of1.5%, and the growth rate was 0. 1 and 1.2 percentage points lower than that at the end of last month and the same period of last year, respectively.
In June 5438+ 10, RMB loans increased by 3.98 trillion yuan, the highest point in a single month, an increase of 394.4 billion yuan year-on-year. In terms of sectors, household loans increased by 843 billion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 654.38+0006 billion yuan and medium-and long-term loans increased by 742.4 billion yuan; Enterprise (institution) loans increased by 3.36 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 1.0 1 trillion yuan, medium-and long-term loans increased by 2. 1 trillion yuan, and bill financing increased by 1.788 billion yuan; Loans from non-banking financial institutions decreased by141700 million yuan.
65438+1At the end of October, the balance of foreign currency loans was 930.8 billion US dollars, up 2% year-on-year. In June, 5438+ 10, foreign currency loans increased by 18 1 0, a decrease of $26.9 billion.
Three. 5438+ 10 RMB deposits increased by 3.83 trillion in June.
1 At the end of the year, the balance of local and foreign currency deposits was 242.6 trillion yuan, up 9.2% year-on-year. The balance of RMB deposits at the end of the month was 236.07 trillion yuan, up 9.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0. 1 and 1.2 percentage points lower than that at the end of last month and the same period of last year, respectively.
In June 5438+ 10, RMB deposits increased by 3.83 trillion yuan, an increase of 262.7 billion yuan year-on-year. Among them, household deposits increased by 54 1 trillion yuan, non-financial enterprise deposits decreased by 1.4 trillion yuan, fiscal deposits increased by 584.9 billion yuan, and non-banking financial institutions decreased by 1.836 billion yuan.
1 At the end of the year, the balance of foreign currency deposits was US$ 65,438 +0.02 trillion, up 9% year-on-year. In June 5438+ 10, foreign currency deposits increased by 27.2 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 22.8 billion US dollars.
In April and June, the monthly weighted average interest rate of RMB interbank lending in 5438+ 10 was 2.0 1%, and the monthly weighted average interest rate of pledged bond repurchase was 2.04%.
On June 5438+ 10, the inter-bank RMB market traded a total of 132.45 trillion yuan, with an average daily turnover of 6.3 1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18%. Among them, the average daily turnover of interbank lending increased by 9.3% year-on-year, the average daily turnover of cash bonds increased by 22.9% year-on-year, and the average daily turnover of pledged repo increased by 18.2% year-on-year.
In June, the weighted average interbank lending rate of 5438+ 10 was 2.0 1%, which was 0.0 1 percentage point lower than that of last month and 0.23 percentage point higher than that of the same period last year, mainly due to the low overnight lending rate of 1 at the beginning of last June. Excluding this factor, the interbank lending rate 1 in June was 0.02 percentage points lower than that in the same period last year. The weighted average interest rate of pledged repo is 2.04%, which is 0.05 and 0.03 percentage points lower than that of last month and the same period of last year respectively.
5. RMB settlement business of cross-border trade in the month was 726,543.8+0.2 billion yuan, and RMB settlement business of direct investment was 478.6 billion yuan.
In the month of 5438+ 10, the cross-border trade in goods, services and other current accounts, foreign direct investment and foreign direct investment settled in RMB were 543.6 billion yuan, 654.38+0776 billion yuan, 654.38+0365 billion yuan and 342.65438 billion yuan respectively.
(1) Before the Spring Festival, due to the centralized payment of wages and benefits by enterprises, the company's current deposits were converted into personal deposits, resulting in a significant decrease in M 1. The last working day before the Spring Festival in 2022 is 65438+1October 30th, and 202 1 is1February.
So much for the introduction of the statistical report of loan data.