The upward trend of challenging 2000 points has been formed. "Technically, A-shares have formed an upward trend, and the ever-increasing volume can be confirmed." A private equity fund manager in Shanghai believes. In the five trading days this week, the A-share market showed a rebound in volume. The largest cumulative increase of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indexes exceeded 13%, and the Shanghai Composite Index crossed two important barriers, 1.800 and 1.900, and stood on the 30-day moving average. The space for a-share rebound is gradually being opened. Infrastructure, cement, steel and other sectors that benefited from the policy began to attack on a large scale. Other sectors are also rotating in an orderly manner, and market hotspots are one after another. More importantly, the continuous favorable policies, on the one hand, make the heavyweights stop falling and stabilize, on the other hand, make some stocks clearly out of the upward trend. "If more and more stocks in the market are on the rise, then the overall market is definitely on the rise." The above private equity fund manager believes. However, the pessimistic view in the market has not completely disappeared. Some people think that the stock index stopped at the 2000 mark this week, indicating that the opportunity is only temporary until the real economy improves in an all-round way. The market is always full of arguments, especially the judgment of trends. "Researchers sometimes see trees, not forests. There are many factors that affect the stock market, such as fundamentals, policies, technical aspects and so on. If you just see a tree and draw a conclusion, it will definitely be biased. " The general manager of Chen Investment Management Co., Ltd. told the reporter. Chen Yuan, deputy general manager and investment director of Guo Fu Fund Management Co., Ltd., has left from public offering to private offering. "In June last year, 5438+ 10, researchers also judged that A shares would reach 8000 points in the second half of this year. Many times, the research community always sends umbrellas after the rain. " Chen gave an example. "The worst of the economy is over" Chen's view of the market is: this is a rebound, but the magnitude will not be very high. For the basis of supporting the stock rise, Chen believes that it is "the long-term value and absolute value of the stock. What researchers see is a short-term decline in performance, so some people think that the stock price will still fall. " Why didn't the rebound appear in the month before 10, but now? Chen believes that everyone expects that the industrial data of 10 is relatively poor. Now that the data has come out, the bad news will be released. 10 this month's industrial data is really worrying. In that month, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size dropped sharply, with an increase of only 8.2% year-on-year, which continued to drop by 3.2 percentage points from last month's low, hitting a new low since the third quarter of 200/kloc-0, and basically approaching the lowest monthly growth level of 1998- 1999 (excluding the February Spring Festival disturbance of/kloc-0). Gao Shanwen believes that the factors supporting the market rebound are that "the worst macroeconomic period has passed, the trade surplus continues to grow, and the credit of commercial banks is relaxed. We expect that the growth trend of trade surplus will continue until the second quarter of next year. " In June, 5438+ 10, the trade surplus was $35.2 billion, up 30.3% year-on-year, and reached a new record high. Why is the external demand affected by the financial crisis and the trade surplus will increase? The reason is that in June of 5438+00, the slowdown of imports was greater than that of exports. In June of 438+00, the growth rate of China's exports slowed down to 19.2%, but the growth rate of imports slowed down to 15.6% in the same period. CICC explained that this was mainly due to the accelerated decline in domestic demand. 5438+ 10 industrial production was sluggish, which led to a decline in the import demand of raw materials; The bursting of the international commodity price bubble caused the import price of China to fall; China's processing trade imports account for nearly 40% of the total imports, and the slowdown in exports directly leads to the decline in demand for this part of imports. Three factors affect the market height. "As far as I know, many large private equity funds in Shanghai are intensively opening positions this week. The point of view is clear. Whether it is a rebound or a reversal, it is time to make money. " The above private equity fund manager told reporters. Essence Securities' strategy is even more advanced. "The era of comprehensive acquisition has arrived." "The attitude of fund companies has also changed significantly. Everyone was empty before, but now some are determined to watch more. There are many fund companies that are adding positions, but some focus on infrastructure and some are consumer goods industries. " A person from a joint venture fund company in Shanghai said. "The financial investment of 4 trillion yuan shows the government's determination to maintain economic growth in policy and has injected great confidence into the weak securities market." The above private equity fund manager believes. For the A-shares that have just turned better, the factors that can destroy the trend have not disappeared. The market's concerns are mainly concentrated in three aspects. First, if the external stock market continues to fall, it will bring a lot of pressure to the continued strength of A shares; If the real estate price falls sharply, it is also a very big negative factor, because real estate and finance, as the weight and core of A-shares, will be dragged down if they cannot stop falling and stabilize, making it difficult to form a big market; Whether the real economy can finally improve determines whether A shares can get out of the bear market. The deterioration of any of the above three factors may lead to large-scale selling of institutions, thus breaking the trend. 165438+1October 12, the US Dow Jones index fell by 4.73%,165438+1October 13, A shares opened slightly lower, then rose all the way, and finally, Some people in the securities industry believe that it is impossible for A shares to go out of a completely independent market, but when A shares strengthen, they can partially offset the impact of the external environment. For housing prices, Gao Shanwen's previous report thought that housing prices were overvalued by 20%-30%. "Overestimation of housing prices does not mean that it must be solved by falling housing prices. This is a way of space, and it can also be resolved through time, and the overestimation can be eliminated through the increase of residents' income. For example, from 1997 to 2004, the real estate prices in Beijing and Shenzhen did not rise sharply, but the income of residents increased a lot. Now it seems that the factors of real estate decline have not been completely eliminated, and the volume of transactions in various places is very small. "Regarding whether the real economy can fundamentally improve, all parties are relatively cautious and fail to draw a clear and definitive judgment." At present, the fear of inflation has completely ended and the threat is deflation. "Gao Shanwen warned." Judging from psychological expectations, A shares fell because of concerns about future investment. Now this kind of worry has been released, and confidence in the future economic recovery has gradually increased, which has been clearly reflected in the trend of the stock index. "The above-mentioned private equity fund managers believe. CICC Macro-strategy Group predicts that the interest rate cut space will reach 2 16 basis points in the coming year. It is considered that whether fiscal expansion policy and interest rate reduction can effectively promote domestic demand is the key to the future trend of China's economy and stock market.