According to the data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the U.S. Department of Commerce on April 28th, local time, the annualized initial value of the real gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter of the United States was-1.4%, which was lower than the market expectation of 1%, and it was the weakest quarter of the U.S. economy since April 2020.
In fact, the impact of the epidemic on the American economy is still ubiquitous. In June, 5438+10, the spread of Omicron mutant continued to detonate the epidemic, while the epidemic prevention measures in the United States were weak and the mentality of "lying flat" was pervasive, which led to a sharp increase in the number of infected people, and some areas had to restart some restrictions to curb the spread of the virus. The US Department of Commerce also pointed out that the increase of COVID-19 cases caused by Omicron variants has restricted and interrupted the operation of enterprises in some parts of the United States.
The White House was filmed in Washington, DC, USA. Photo by Shen Ting (Xinhua News Agency)
The impact of the epidemic on the American economy has never stopped, and even intensified. Although the United States introduced ultra-loose policies to rescue the market after the outbreak of the epidemic, it caused even bigger problems. As Powell, the interim chairman of the Federal Reserve, said at a hearing of the US Congress in June 5438+ 10, "I didn't expect the supply bottleneck to be so stubborn and the improvement to be so slow, and I didn't expect the strong growth of demand to be so concentrated on commodities." These remarks exposed the weakness of American policy-apart from pushing up the stock market index and inflation data, they did not solve the structural problems of the American economy exposed by the epidemic, especially the supply chain repair still exists only in various optimistic expectations. The continuous interruption of the supply chain, the continuous shortage of labor force and the resulting wage increase have brought great cost pressure to American enterprises, which in turn has affected the effective growth of the American economy.
The coexistence of GDP stall and high inflation means that the risk of stagflation in the United States is increasing. The average hourly wage in the United States increased by 5.6% annually in March, but it was still overshadowed by inflation data. According to data from the US Department of Labor, driven by rising energy and food prices, the consumer price index (CPI) in March rose by 8.5% year-on-year, hitting a 40-year high. The ups and downs of the epidemic and the Ukrainian crisis have aggravated the tension of global commodity supply. Many experts worry that inflation may run at a high level for a long time. As the engine of the American economy, consumption data also has hidden concerns. Personal consumption expenditure in the United States increased by 2.7% in the first quarter, which looks very strong on the surface. However, with the "high fever" of inflation and the gradual reduction of government expenditure, consumer confidence has declined, and there is still uncertainty about whether the consumption data in the second quarter can continue to improve.
In response to inflation, the Federal Reserve is accelerating the tightening of monetary policy, which may further curb economic growth. Powell has repeatedly hinted that he may raise interest rates by another 50 basis points at the meeting on interest rates in May. However, Powell's tough stance cannot dispel the market's doubts. At present, the market is increasingly divided on the economic prospects of the United States, and signs of economic recession have emerged. Since the beginning of this year, the yield of US bonds has been rising all the way. The yields of 10-year bonds and 2-year bonds have been upside down in April, which is usually regarded as a leading signal of economic recession, and many institutions are also reminding the US economy of the recession risk.
The Federal Reserve Building in Washington, USA. Photo by Liu Jie (Xinhua News Agency)
Although the alarm sounded frequently, from the attitude of some people in the United States, they still failed to face up to their problems. They not only failed to strike a balance between epidemic prevention and economic development, failed to conform to the objective laws of economic globalization, and failed to fulfill their due responsibilities. Instead, they frequently tried to "treat internal diseases from outside" and constantly tried to pass on their own crises to the world. This practice not only drags down the process of global economic recovery, but also can't really get rid of the stagflation nightmare in the United States.