Why should it appreciate? One of the reasons is that our foreign trade surplus is too much. Our foreign trade export growth rate is too fast, our economy can't afford it, and the world can't afford it more and more, and various imbalances are beginning to appear. Therefore, we have adopted some policies, including monetary policy, with the aim of slowing down the growth rate of our foreign trade exports. It is to reduce the trade surplus, especially with the United States, so that our foreign exchange reserves will not increase by hundreds of billions every year. Now we have reached 1.6 trillion, and then reached 2 trillion. Our aim is to slow it down. Therefore, we can't say that Ye Gong is a dragon. In the past, we always talked about reducing the balance of payments and reducing the surplus. As a result, the surplus began to decrease and we began to feel unbearable again. Since there are adjustments and cuts, it may affect some industries and some enterprises, which is also foreseeable. I understand that the current policy is to prevent a big shock and let it move forward in small steps. The biggest consideration is that our enterprise will give a buffer period, instead of running away at once, there will be a process of reducing costs and adjusting the structure, and it will also give a buffer space. But after all, this is an adjustment. Our foreign trade surplus increased by more than 40% last year and by more than 60% the year before, which is unsustainable and should be reduced in this respect. So I said, first of all, we should realize this.

Second, when will there be further consequences? I said that this market will gradually appreciate and reach a balanced process. One more thing, why do we accelerate the appreciation of the dollar? It is important that the depreciation of the dollar is accelerating. We accelerated the appreciation, but failed to catch up with his depreciation. We are still depreciating the euro and the yen. There is not only one dollar currency in the world, but we are still trading partners of other countries. Our deficits with the euro and the yen have been reduced, and Europeans will also discuss our imbalances with us. So how fast is the appreciation. Where is the balance point? Don't just ask China people, ask how much the dollar has depreciated. At present, EUR/USD has reached 1.56. When will it depreciate? This is the biggest problem. Changes in America have led to changes in everything. So you say where the equilibrium point is, no one knows. Therefore, we have to adjust, not only to the United States, but also to other countries.

Having said that, we have to realize that China needs adjustment. It is indeed unsustainable for us to take the growth mode of the past and take the growth mode of such a large foreign trade surplus. On the other hand, China wants to develop and China wants to explore the international market. Otherwise, when will our low income level complete the process of industrialization and peasant transformation? Therefore, we should really pay close attention to the changes in the market, the whole employment situation and the whole international situation. Under the background of American subprime mortgage crisis, we should pay close attention to the changes of various variables in the process of RMB exchange rate adjustment against the US dollar, and also adjust our policies and variables to a more appropriate degree.

Positive effects of moderate appreciation of RMB;

It is conducive to continuing to promote the reform of the exchange rate system and even the financial system.

It is conducive to solving the problem of imbalance in foreign trade. Due to the implementation of a single exchange rate system linked to the US dollar, China products have remained "cheap"

Price "advantage. A moderate appreciation of RMB can alleviate the imbalance of international payments to some extent.

It is conducive to reducing the prices of imported goods and the production costs of export enterprises mainly importing raw materials.

Is conducive to reducing the cost of China citizens' outbound tourism.

It is conducive to prompting domestic enterprises to strive to improve product competitiveness. Chinese enterprises have long occupied the international market at low prices, benefiting foreign importers. If the price is raised after appreciation, the market may be lost; Failure to raise the price may increase the loss. Therefore, we can only improve productivity and scientific and technological content, reduce costs, improve quality and enhance competitiveness.

It is conducive to reducing the demand of foreign funds for domestic housing purchase and reducing the real estate bubble.

The adverse effects of the rapid appreciation of RMB are as follows:

It will reduce the profit space of enterprises in a certain period of time, reduce the competitiveness and share of enterprises in the international market, and lead to a decrease in exports.

It will intensify competition in some domestic fields. Some manufacturers of export products will join the domestic market competition, which will make the already fierce domestic market competition more intense.

This will lead to relative overproduction in some areas. For example, 40% ~ 60% of export commodities such as food, clothing and stationery are transferred to the domestic market, which will inevitably lead to an oversupply of products in a certain period of time.

It will aggravate the employment pressure, especially many migrant workers will lose their jobs.

It will increase the cost of foreign investment in China, and the utilization of foreign capital may show a gradual downward trend.

It will lead to an increase in the cost of overseas tourists traveling in the mainland, which may lead them to travel to other countries or regions.